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American in Paris

American in Paris
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  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    Exactly. How can anyone take a guy seriously who has a photo of himself bare chested on his blog. The whole thing is a joke.
    Nov 8 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    Japan is the relevant example. All performance is relative.
    Nov 8 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Trade A Strong October Payroll Report [View article]
    So how do you know the market has already discounted the worse for precious metals?

    The precious metals are way overvalued.
    Nov 8 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The GIGO Jobs Report [View article]
    Felix,

    I was trained as an economist and a statistician. The truth is that the 95% confidence interval around the net job growth figure is always huge.

    Your article doesn't explain why this report should be weighted less than other job reports and your tone is rather reminiscent of Zero Hedge.

    I don't think the GDP report was particularly distorted. GDP is a measure of output and hence inventory growth has to be included otherwise production is underestimated!!!

    Now we have three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth. Are you ready to admit the US economy is improving? Or are you in a Zero Hedge mood?
    Nov 8 12:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Brent Futures And Stock Index Futures Are Easy To Manipulate [View article]
    Paulo,

    I don't understand the argument. Cash or physical settlement doesn't make any difference. If someone successfully manipulated WTO to the upside, then they sell their futures contract. They don't have to take delivery.
    Nov 8 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Trust ETF Falling As Expected [View article]
    Well, I guess the gold investors feel really good today ...
    Nov 8 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Trust ETF Falling As Expected [View article]
    Doug,

    The US economy produced 16 trillion dollars of "things" last year.

    And the big debt burden did subside after Reagan. During the Clinton administration deficit went to zero. Check the data.
    Nov 8 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Trust ETF Falling As Expected [View article]
    Filipo,

    Who nominated Bernanke? I recollect it was President Bush. Who confirmed the nomination? The US Senate.

    The claim that private banks control the Fed is completely wrong. The Fed is an independent public institutions controlled by official nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.
    Nov 8 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Leash The Dogma [View article]
    Do you respect Aristotle? He didn't have a Ph.D.

    You should stay away from non sequitors and simply show me the errors of my ways. But I don't think you can.

    The reason you like Hussman is not because he has a Ph.D. Krugman has a Ph.D and a Nobel prize and he also disagrees with Hussman.

    As for my statistical background, it is pretty good. I have published papers.
    Nov 8 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End Game And Silver's Heart Of Gold [View article]
    First of all, how many financial advisors do you know and what percentage is that of the universe of financial advisors? In other words, I don't have any confidence in small samples.

    Second of all, I would note that financial advisors are not impartial if their compensation is derived from what they sell and that during the dot.com era many of them acted like a herd of animals.

    There are two reasons to hold gold. Money can be made trading gold because it is volatile. Volatility is a trade. I am short the futures contract (One Exchange) on GLD. 139 contracts or 1.5 million dollars short. That position was exactly offset by GLD calls to hedge.

    I am up on this position because the decline in the futures well offsets the decline in my calls. I will hold this position with adjustments along the way until the gold rout is complete in 2015 when the Fed will probably raise the Fed Funds rate.

    So you can trade it and make money. It is volatile. If you can buy options when they are cheap relative to future volatility, money to be made ...

    Long term investment? Why? The wealth of the world is its productive assets as any economist will note (by the way Warren Buffet agrees). So stocks and bonds are long term investments.

    Gold as a hedge against economic calamity? Doesn't seem to work that way. Gold fell during the 2009 recession. Not much of a hedge.

    Gold as a hedge against inflation? As Morningstar has noted, gold is historically a poor hedge against inflation. TIPs do better. Floating rate bonds do better.

    I see no compelling reason to hold gold and silver as investments and I feel sorry for those that do because they will be wiped out during the next several years.
    Nov 8 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic And Temp Employment Signal More Growth [View article]
    Logical Thought,

    Most assessments that I have seen suggest that QE is only weakly effective. It has an impact, but it is limited.

    If it had a great impact, there would not have been such a huge buildup in excess reserves in the banking system.

    Huge excess reserves suggest that most of the monetary stimulus has been sterile. In other words, not used to support credit expansion or anything.

    People like yourself who try to make a big deal out of QE invariably that the expansion is "artificial'. To the contrary, I would argue that artificial and natural are dubious in the context of a modern economy. The Fed is always involved in expanding the money from month to month and year to year and century to century. That is what central banks do. They smooth interest rates, which is in the best of interest of the nation.

    And interestingly enough, it is the same people who make these arguments - Republicans. Which leads a middle-of-the-road democrat and entrepreneur to wonder if political opinions are not tainting their arguments.

    By the way, the liquidity is bogus. Those who have access to portfolio margin know that there was plenty of liquidity before QE.
    Nov 8 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    As likely up as down. The previous month was revised up.

    Cynicism is cheap.
    Nov 8 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    Zerohedge is run by a bunch of economic illiterates that engage in fear mongering and sensationalism. Their articles have repeatedly debunked.
    Nov 8 10:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    When you have millions of excess unemployed, you take what you can get.

    It's lot better than Japan's performance. No lost decade in America.
    Nov 8 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big beat on jobs with gain of 204K [View news story]
    You have long term unemployed who will not be able to get jobs since they will be increasingly viewed as a depreciated asset. The longer you are unemployed, the more your skills atrophy.
    Nov 8 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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