American in Paris

International Stock Investing: Diversified Timing on Country ETFs

This is silly. First of all, it smacks of data mining. There is no logic behind 10 month moving averages. What the author did is data mine until he found a moving average that backtests well.

Unfortunately, backtesting does not lead to superior forecasting. Probably because noise is mistaked for signal.

Second of all, placing equally weight means placing big bets on small countries like Singapore and small bets on big countries.

I really want to bet a big chunk of my portfolio on Singapore - a country that has to import its drinking water ...

Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part I)

So to diversify my portfolio, I should add the low beta countries such as Egypt, Malaysia, Philippines, Japan, Morocco? The lower the beta, the more the diversification.

My portfolio is leveraged. So diversification is at the center of my concerns.

Is that correct?

Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part I)

Why such a short data period? Are the betas stable over longer periods?

Did you check the error terms to see if they were white noise?

Hint: I was a very good time series analyst in a previous life.

EFA: Diversify Your Portfolio Outside the U.S.

Where do you get the forward looking PE ratios on Yahoo? I see only trailing twelve month figures.

Capitalism, Socialism and 10-Year Returns of Country ETFs

No, they have more capacity for growth because their costs are lower!


On Sep 07 10:14 AM Alphameister wrote:

> Emerging markets inherently have much greater room for growth because
> they don't require extensive innovation to achieve such growth; they
> need only an increased respect for the virtues of capitalism. High
> corporate tax rates are paid by all of us and cannot be ignored when
> comparing tax burdens country by country. When you compare investment
> returns 5 to 10 years from now, my bet is that China will again surpass
> the U.S. and other developed economies by a very wide margin.

Economic Crisis: Good Luck Europe, You'll Need It

The European economy will stabilize sooner than the American economy because the system has a more generous safety net and because the real estate markets are healthier in general (with obvious exceptions). The fall in the Euro will also boost exports as well.