American in Paris

International Stock Investing: Diversified Timing on Country ETFs

This is silly. First of all, it smacks of data mining. There is no logic behind 10 month moving averages. What the author did is data mine until he found a moving average that backtests well.

Unfortunately, backtesting does not lead to superior forecasting. Probably because noise is mistaked for signal.

Second of all, placing equally weight means placing big bets on small countries like Singapore and small bets on big countries.

I really want to bet a big chunk of my portfolio on Singapore - a country that has to import its drinking water ...

Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part I)

So to diversify my portfolio, I should add the low beta countries such as Egypt, Malaysia, Philippines, Japan, Morocco? The lower the beta, the more the diversification.

My portfolio is leveraged. So diversification is at the center of my concerns.

Is that correct?

Seeking High-Alpha, Low-Beta Countries (Part I)

Why such a short data period? Are the betas stable over longer periods?

Did you check the error terms to see if they were white noise?

Hint: I was a very good time series analyst in a previous life.

On Paul Krugman's Deficit Rationalization

To the contrary, the US has one of the lowest qualities of life in the developed world. Your country is totally dependent on cars to move people and your medical system is full of overpaid doctors and vendors. Your brand of capitalism makes people slaves to their jobs and their boss.

You need to start taxing at sensible rates and stop the free lunches. Your system is loaded with tax subsidies for businesses that distort the allocation of resources. Many oil companies have gone years without paying any tax.

Your tax system is more generous to wealthy corporations than to poor households.


On Nov 26 10:59 AM raising4daughters wrote:

> We can't afford what we're spending on those programs.
>
> Bottom line is that gub'mint spending needs a 40-50% cut across the
> board. We need to restore the "I" in the macro-economic equation
> of C+I+G-X at the expense of "G". Decades of runaway expansion of
> G under Dem's and Rep's have hollowed out our economy. We look like
> the late 80s Soviet Union.
>
> On Nov 25 05:34 PM user396040 wrote:

On Paul Krugman's Deficit Rationalization

No, I'm afraid Krugman is much smarter than you. And I have also achieved financial independence.

Certain kinds of intelligence do not translate into trading brilliance. Ironically, the 20th century's greatest economist was a brilliant investor.

Who? John Maynard Keynes ... Increased Cambridge University's endowment by 1,000 percent during the 30s. A rather difficult investing climate ...

Eat your heart dividend investor ...


On Nov 25 11:11 AM bobbybutte wrote:

> as a person who has become financially independent SOLELY from dividend
> investing and reinvested dividends let me add a few things
>
>
> Krugman is a good example of abad example
>
> If he actually understood how it all works he would be managing money
> not spewing his elitist nonsense
>
> It is really siimple america needs to cut all EXPENDITURES from government
> social security medicare everything by 20% except Miliatry salaries
> which should be raised 5%
> Combine that with cutting the lowest tax rate from 10 to 7% and low
> and behold everything is fine
>
> America knows what they need to do but does not have the will to
> do it

Capitalism, Socialism and 10-Year Returns of Country ETFs

No, they have more capacity for growth because their costs are lower!


On Sep 07 10:14 AM Alphameister wrote:

> Emerging markets inherently have much greater room for growth because
> they don't require extensive innovation to achieve such growth; they
> need only an increased respect for the virtues of capitalism. High
> corporate tax rates are paid by all of us and cannot be ignored when
> comparing tax burdens country by country. When you compare investment
> returns 5 to 10 years from now, my bet is that China will again surpass
> the U.S. and other developed economies by a very wide margin.

Economic Crisis: Good Luck Europe, You'll Need It

The European economy will stabilize sooner than the American economy because the system has a more generous safety net and because the real estate markets are healthier in general (with obvious exceptions). The fall in the Euro will also boost exports as well.