RatWatcher

Five Riskiest Assumptions for 2009

There will be a recovery, unless the govt screws it up. The market is a self-correcting mechanism, like a spring. It actually overcorrects before reversing, though, so the timing of the upswing is tricky.

Housing actually doesn't need to bottom, just level off will be good enough and let inflation do the rest. And the inflation, thanks to the massive money creation, will come. Median house price = 3x median income is a good level, but you have to use regional, not national measures in the aggregates.