RatWatcher's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/267522/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/169494-homebuyer-tax-credit-update?source=feed#comment-735037 735037
Sucks to be a landlord (read: homeowner) losing a good renter thanks to the $8K Cash-For-Foreclosures handout.]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:06:48 -0400
Sucks to be a landlord (read: homeowner) losing a good renter thanks to the $8K Cash-For-Foreclosures handout.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168773-will-the-fdic-be-able-to-withstand-400-bank-closures?source=feed#comment-733381 733381
Please correct if I am mis-remembering, but weren't the S&L covered by an agency called FSLIC? If so, there would be no reason for the FDIC to run out of money, or be involved at all.....]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:21:35 -0400
Please correct if I am mis-remembering, but weren't the S&L covered by an agency called FSLIC? If so, there would be no reason for the FDIC to run out of money, or be involved at all.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168763-not-everyone-likes-windows-7?source=feed#comment-733371 733371

On Oct 26 09:12 AM wusseldussel wrote:

> The problem with Mac: when there is a major upgrade of OS you have
> to buy all the hardware new since the new OS does not support the
> old hardware. If you buy a brand new PC with Windows 7 I bet it will
> run without any problems. I think many XP users demand that after
> they buy Windows 7 their old hardware runs better than before. And
> Apple will not manage to do such a trick either.]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:05:47 -0400

On Oct 26 09:12 AM wusseldussel wrote:

> The problem with Mac: when there is a major upgrade of OS you have
> to buy all the hardware new since the new OS does not support the
> old hardware. If you buy a brand new PC with Windows 7 I bet it will
> run without any problems. I think many XP users demand that after
> they buy Windows 7 their old hardware runs better than before. And
> Apple will not manage to do such a trick either.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164295-cit-s-failure-could-threaten-financial-sector-s-overall-recovery?source=feed#comment-699484 699484
Minimum 10% equity in the post-bankruptcy CIT to the UAW.....]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 23:23:20 -0400
Minimum 10% equity in the post-bankruptcy CIT to the UAW.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162277-time-for-an-fha-shakeup?source=feed#comment-683205 683205
Respectfully, this would term the highly successful VA loan program as 'idiotic'. Do you really think VA loans are idiotic, or is this maybe an oversight or exception?

I will note that in many cases, people with VA loans have guaranteed DoD pensions which could (and would) be garnished. Perhaps that 'floor income' makes a difference?]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 23:23:59 -0400
Respectfully, this would term the highly successful VA loan program as 'idiotic'. Do you really think VA loans are idiotic, or is this maybe an oversight or exception?

I will note that in many cases, people with VA loans have guaranteed DoD pensions which could (and would) be garnished. Perhaps that 'floor income' makes a difference?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161118-what-s-a-home-really-worth-these-days?source=feed#comment-674070 674070 Sun, 13 Sep 2009 02:05:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160853-foreclosures-they-re-not-just-for-breakfast-anymore?source=feed#comment-671482 671482
What happens to the owner's property taxes after all these improvements? Any way to include a ban on local government using them as an increase excuse?]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 01:05:09 -0400
What happens to the owner's property taxes after all these improvements? Any way to include a ban on local government using them as an increase excuse?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160469-the-great-depression-unemployment-and-recovery?source=feed#comment-667588 667588 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 23:48:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159097-maximum-social-security-taxes-4x-increase-since-1970?source=feed#comment-665706 665706
It is not possible for the government to either 'save' or 'invest' so-called 'trust funds' ( SS, or any other such as the Highway Trust Fund) unless we are willing to stuff a locker with (a) gold, (b) foreign currency, (c) equities or (d) real property titles. The first we (presumably) have at Ft Knox. Currencies such as pounds or yen are a non-starter, though it may be worth considering yuan. Equities, we are now for the first time buying but we buy only trash such as Citibank and GM. Finally, we may end up with so many garbage properties when the foreclosure crap culminates we will be crushed under them.

This is a long-winded way of saying that 'investing' in US Treasuries by the US Govt is an impossibility. And 'saving' the dollars is nothing more than a reduction in the money supply. All this is because the Govt is the issuer of the currency. An IOU in your own pocket is worthless.]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 22:30:54 -0400
It is not possible for the government to either 'save' or 'invest' so-called 'trust funds' ( SS, or any other such as the Highway Trust Fund) unless we are willing to stuff a locker with (a) gold, (b) foreign currency, (c) equities or (d) real property titles. The first we (presumably) have at Ft Knox. Currencies such as pounds or yen are a non-starter, though it may be worth considering yuan. Equities, we are now for the first time buying but we buy only trash such as Citibank and GM. Finally, we may end up with so many garbage properties when the foreclosure crap culminates we will be crushed under them.

This is a long-winded way of saying that 'investing' in US Treasuries by the US Govt is an impossibility. And 'saving' the dollars is nothing more than a reduction in the money supply. All this is because the Govt is the issuer of the currency. An IOU in your own pocket is worthless.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159655-the-true-cost-of-the-home-buyer-tax-credit?source=feed#comment-659730 659730
Good luck in homeownership! Don't default and leave us out $8K for nothing......lol


On Sep 02 04:29 PM Smrt1 wrote:

> Just to present a differing view and point of interest. I am of modest
> means and my wife and I both have secure jobs. I am one of those
> quoted in the article as being an additional purchoser of a home.
> I live in a state where much of my taxes are derived from property
> taxes. I probably would not have purchased my home without the tax
> credit. Not because I am without the means to purchase a home but
> merely because I enjoyed apartment living. It was very conceivable
> to my wife and I to stay in an apartment for the next 5 years easy.
> My additional tax burden as a result of buying this house for the
> next 5 years will be approx $ 20,000. Now if you account for my tax
> credit of $ 8k then that is $ 12 K in added taxes. Divide $ 12k by
> $ 8k and you get 1.5. The government is getting a 50% return from
> me on its investment of $ 8 k. I would love an investment with a
> virtually guaranteed 50% ROI. Who wouldn't?]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 02:45:50 -0400
Good luck in homeownership! Don't default and leave us out $8K for nothing......lol


On Sep 02 04:29 PM Smrt1 wrote:

> Just to present a differing view and point of interest. I am of modest
> means and my wife and I both have secure jobs. I am one of those
> quoted in the article as being an additional purchoser of a home.
> I live in a state where much of my taxes are derived from property
> taxes. I probably would not have purchased my home without the tax
> credit. Not because I am without the means to purchase a home but
> merely because I enjoyed apartment living. It was very conceivable
> to my wife and I to stay in an apartment for the next 5 years easy.
> My additional tax burden as a result of buying this house for the
> next 5 years will be approx $ 20,000. Now if you account for my tax
> credit of $ 8k then that is $ 12 K in added taxes. Divide $ 12k by
> $ 8k and you get 1.5. The government is getting a 50% return from
> me on its investment of $ 8 k. I would love an investment with a
> virtually guaranteed 50% ROI. Who wouldn't?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158540-bernanke-s-renomination-hold-the-applause?source=feed#comment-650242 650242
Is it at all possible that Mr Bernanke simply knows too much to be let go, free to write a tell-all book of where all the bailout money went? Ockham's Razor approach to the otherwise stunning re-nomination of Paulson's enabler.]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 01:16:23 -0400
Is it at all possible that Mr Bernanke simply knows too much to be let go, free to write a tell-all book of where all the bailout money went? Ockham's Razor approach to the otherwise stunning re-nomination of Paulson's enabler.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158339-increased-deficit-spending-we-can-t-afford-it?source=feed#comment-648360 648360
The trick is, the people who buy Treasuries (China, eg) don't care if we honor the SS Trust Fund piece. Debt to GDP is based only on the Debt Held by the Public figure.

The problem is, the gov is currently (massively) selling bonds to the public. That is what is and will continue to push the Debt/GDP ratio.

Here is a safe, government link that may explain better:

www.treasurydirect.gov...



On Aug 26 05:20 PM JJJ wrote:

> I keep hearing that our debt to Gdp ratio is around the 40% range
> from the CNBC talking heads, and that this latest revised 9 trillion
> 10 budget deficit will bring us near 80% debt to GDP. Just looking
> at our current national debt of about 11.3 trillion and a GDP of
> around 14trillion(rounded up), Isn't the debt to gdp ratio already
> above 80%(11.3t/14t)? Am I missing something here.]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 02:14:08 -0400
The trick is, the people who buy Treasuries (China, eg) don't care if we honor the SS Trust Fund piece. Debt to GDP is based only on the Debt Held by the Public figure.

The problem is, the gov is currently (massively) selling bonds to the public. That is what is and will continue to push the Debt/GDP ratio.

Here is a safe, government link that may explain better:

www.treasurydirect.gov...



On Aug 26 05:20 PM JJJ wrote:

> I keep hearing that our debt to Gdp ratio is around the 40% range
> from the CNBC talking heads, and that this latest revised 9 trillion
> 10 budget deficit will bring us near 80% debt to GDP. Just looking
> at our current national debt of about 11.3 trillion and a GDP of
> around 14trillion(rounded up), Isn't the debt to gdp ratio already
> above 80%(11.3t/14t)? Am I missing something here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158049-reappointing-bernanke-obamas-heck-of-a-job-brownie-moment?source=feed#comment-646683 646683 > both 1900 and 1908 – which elections he lost to Republican William
> McKinley. "

McKinley was assassinated in 1901. The '08 election went to WH Taft. Makes the entire quote suspect.

BTW Bryan also ran in 1896, source of the relatively well known 'cross of gold' speech. ]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 02:57:44 -0400 > both 1900 and 1908 – which elections he lost to Republican William
> McKinley. "

McKinley was assassinated in 1901. The '08 election went to WH Taft. Makes the entire quote suspect.

BTW Bryan also ran in 1896, source of the relatively well known 'cross of gold' speech. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158173-4-dividend-stocks-to-hedge-against-social-security-failure?source=feed#comment-646673 646673
Sorry, no. The SS Trust Fund is nothing more than a US Gov IOU in the US Gov's own pocket. This is neither savings nor debt; it is an unfunded promise to make future payments, but the expected payment recipient has no legal right to the funds.

You can try this at home. Each month, momentarily set aside some money for your kids' college education. Write the number in a notebook. Spend the money. Once a year, momentarily set aside extra money for interest on the notebook account value. Spend that too.

When it's time for college...what to do? The money's not really there, but the account notebook shows plenty of money, maybe even Ivy League sums. You don't actually have the money, but being a 'good' parent, you find enough money from current sources for community college. Junior has no choice, no recourse, but to suck it up.

That is the Social Security Trust Fund. Future seniors will get bare minimums (or zero) and have no recourse.

"When planning for retirement, my underlying assumption is that Social Security will go broke before I ever receive a dime." Yessir, that's exactly correct if you are under 55.]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 02:34:52 -0400
Sorry, no. The SS Trust Fund is nothing more than a US Gov IOU in the US Gov's own pocket. This is neither savings nor debt; it is an unfunded promise to make future payments, but the expected payment recipient has no legal right to the funds.

You can try this at home. Each month, momentarily set aside some money for your kids' college education. Write the number in a notebook. Spend the money. Once a year, momentarily set aside extra money for interest on the notebook account value. Spend that too.

When it's time for college...what to do? The money's not really there, but the account notebook shows plenty of money, maybe even Ivy League sums. You don't actually have the money, but being a 'good' parent, you find enough money from current sources for community college. Junior has no choice, no recourse, but to suck it up.

That is the Social Security Trust Fund. Future seniors will get bare minimums (or zero) and have no recourse.

"When planning for retirement, my underlying assumption is that Social Security will go broke before I ever receive a dime." Yessir, that's exactly correct if you are under 55.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157385-prime-mortgages-are-also-going-sour?source=feed#comment-639201 639201

On Aug 20 09:26 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

> I am certainly no expert, but I have read that there are financial
> reasons for banks to delay. As the property sits in foreclosure,
> it's value is still subjective. Once it is sold in a distressed
> sale the loss on the mortgage is fixed. Also, it costs money to
> bring the process to fruition. So processing a lot of foreclosures
> is costly in two ways -- the losses realized and the money to process
> the sale.
>
> On Aug 20 07:36 PM Suncatcher wrote:]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 00:06:41 -0400

On Aug 20 09:26 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

> I am certainly no expert, but I have read that there are financial
> reasons for banks to delay. As the property sits in foreclosure,
> it's value is still subjective. Once it is sold in a distressed
> sale the loss on the mortgage is fixed. Also, it costs money to
> bring the process to fruition. So processing a lot of foreclosures
> is costly in two ways -- the losses realized and the money to process
> the sale.
>
> On Aug 20 07:36 PM Suncatcher wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155972-july-retail-sales-the-economic-storm-is-not-over?source=feed#comment-631347 631347

On Aug 14 06:17 AM Ed Zimmer wrote:

> Not only has the American consumer hit a wall, the airbags didn't
> go off, at least not until the consumer was pulled from the wreckage
> and left to lie on the side of the economic freeway. Then the rescuers
> (govt) set off the airbags to protect the car (banks).
> While the govt is concerned about the banks, the consumer has been
> left to get better on his or her own, if they can. Now the Government
> wants to raise it's credit line so it can spend more. Kinda like
> dropping the jaws of life on the poor slob laying on the ground while
> propping pillows around the injured car.
> Great article, good points, some food for thought. I favor buying
> the dips in metals because there is just way too much funny smoke
> and mirrors in everything else right now.

I really like your metaphor, but 180 degrees about: the banks are in the drivers seat, and the taxpayer TARP airbag went off. They walked away whole. The car (consumer) was totalled. We are still waiting for the tow truck.......]]> Sun, 16 Aug 2009 00:41:19 -0400

On Aug 14 06:17 AM Ed Zimmer wrote:

> Not only has the American consumer hit a wall, the airbags didn't
> go off, at least not until the consumer was pulled from the wreckage
> and left to lie on the side of the economic freeway. Then the rescuers
> (govt) set off the airbags to protect the car (banks).
> While the govt is concerned about the banks, the consumer has been
> left to get better on his or her own, if they can. Now the Government
> wants to raise it's credit line so it can spend more. Kinda like
> dropping the jaws of life on the poor slob laying on the ground while
> propping pillows around the injured car.
> Great article, good points, some food for thought. I favor buying
> the dips in metals because there is just way too much funny smoke
> and mirrors in everything else right now.

I really like your metaphor, but 180 degrees about: the banks are in the drivers seat, and the taxpayer TARP airbag went off. They walked away whole. The car (consumer) was totalled. We are still waiting for the tow truck.......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153882-housing-dating-marriage-and-the-tax-code?source=feed#comment-619153 619153 > in 2007, the median net worth of an under-35 years old person in
> America was only $11,800--down from an astounding $80,700 in 2004"

I am surprised no one has challenged this $80K number. Sounds like pure BS to me...half of all people (all adults, or all employed adults, even) under 35 had a net worth north of $80K???? Unlikely.]]> Fri, 07 Aug 2009 01:23:04 -0400 > in 2007, the median net worth of an under-35 years old person in
> America was only $11,800--down from an astounding $80,700 in 2004"

I am surprised no one has challenged this $80K number. Sounds like pure BS to me...half of all people (all adults, or all employed adults, even) under 35 had a net worth north of $80K???? Unlikely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152788-the-budget-battle-over-student-loans?source=feed#comment-610500 610500
I have no problem with modest loans for the necessities of college life (books, dorms, pizza, beer)...but tuition itself needs to reflect the education's real value. The current system is the most clear manifestation of debt slavery we have, starting life after graduation with a massive debt to repay guarantees failure for so many promising youngsters.]]> Sat, 01 Aug 2009 00:54:19 -0400
I have no problem with modest loans for the necessities of college life (books, dorms, pizza, beer)...but tuition itself needs to reflect the education's real value. The current system is the most clear manifestation of debt slavery we have, starting life after graduation with a massive debt to repay guarantees failure for so many promising youngsters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152816-cash-for-clunkers-what-can-the-government-buy-you-next?source=feed#comment-610493 610493
Concur in part....modified, the taxpayer is ALREADY paying for this and will pay AGAIN when they default on the car payments.

Although in a way, cars can provide shelter value....maybe some loan modifications? :-)

Sorry its Friday night I couldn't resist.

-Rat]]> Sat, 01 Aug 2009 00:34:19 -0400
Concur in part....modified, the taxpayer is ALREADY paying for this and will pay AGAIN when they default on the car payments.

Although in a way, cars can provide shelter value....maybe some loan modifications? :-)

Sorry its Friday night I couldn't resist.

-Rat]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152904-u-s-government-converts-inflation-into-gdp?source=feed#comment-610458 610458
One point more on why there will be no recovery: in October, the government will announce NO increase in SS benefits due to 'low inflation.' However that is overall CPI-W reported inflation, not a basket of senior-goods such as health care and heating oil. Any marginal demand they have for other goods will evaporate.

Never thought I'd actually see the year with no SS increase. Strange times we are living in.]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 22:44:23 -0400
One point more on why there will be no recovery: in October, the government will announce NO increase in SS benefits due to 'low inflation.' However that is overall CPI-W reported inflation, not a basket of senior-goods such as health care and heating oil. Any marginal demand they have for other goods will evaporate.

Never thought I'd actually see the year with no SS increase. Strange times we are living in.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151247-reich-is-right-watch-your-wallets?source=feed#comment-601640 601640
The first part of this doesn't require -US- consumers. Exports also drive economic growth. If (when) the USD begins its inevitable free-fall, those holding them will naturally get rid of them via spending. Their final destination must be US products, real estate, or intangible property such as copyrights and patents. When the dam bursts, the flood will come....]]> Sat, 25 Jul 2009 01:52:03 -0400
The first part of this doesn't require -US- consumers. Exports also drive economic growth. If (when) the USD begins its inevitable free-fall, those holding them will naturally get rid of them via spending. Their final destination must be US products, real estate, or intangible property such as copyrights and patents. When the dam bursts, the flood will come....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151259-barry-eichengreen-is-wrong-we-need-to-pass-a-bigger-stimulus?source=feed#comment-601631 601631 Sat, 25 Jul 2009 01:36:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149734-pennsylvania-another-state-descends-into-financial-crisis?source=feed#comment-597549 597549
The model from the '08 election is pretty clear. The 'leaders' will be charismatic faces elected via huge special interest contributions, with mass-media playing the dual role of propaganda ministry for the chosen and assassin of the opposition. The bosses will remain behind the scene as always.

Assuming, of course, we still have elections.....]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 02:28:06 -0400
The model from the '08 election is pretty clear. The 'leaders' will be charismatic faces elected via huge special interest contributions, with mass-media playing the dual role of propaganda ministry for the chosen and assassin of the opposition. The bosses will remain behind the scene as always.

Assuming, of course, we still have elections.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149668-is-this-the-capitulation-phase?source=feed#comment-594487 594487
Are these 1-year CDs renewed at current rates each year? Or longer term ones, which carry higher rates (and higher inflation risk)? I went to the Big Picture website from your link but didn't find that key piece of information.

Thanx.]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 23:04:32 -0400
Are these 1-year CDs renewed at current rates each year? Or longer term ones, which carry higher rates (and higher inflation risk)? I went to the Big Picture website from your link but didn't find that key piece of information.

Thanx.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149061-the-deflation-inflation-seesaw?source=feed#comment-589997 589997 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:14:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147701-even-rentals-aren-t-faring-well-in-this-economy?source=feed#comment-579906 579906
In order to get a new high-quality (good credit rating) tenant, I had to cut rent about 20% to be competitive relative to buying. Also the underlying value of the property has come down at least that much from its theoretical peak, so it is not really surprising the rents come down some.

I consider myself lucky it is *only* a 20% income hit. People with their money in CDs have taken a 50% or more cut as interest rates scrape bottom. ]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 22:55:04 -0400
In order to get a new high-quality (good credit rating) tenant, I had to cut rent about 20% to be competitive relative to buying. Also the underlying value of the property has come down at least that much from its theoretical peak, so it is not really surprising the rents come down some.

I consider myself lucky it is *only* a 20% income hit. People with their money in CDs have taken a 50% or more cut as interest rates scrape bottom. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147231-las-vegas-city-center-saga-disgruntled-buyers-demand-bailout?source=feed#comment-576624 576624
Good riddance."

An unnecessary and incorrect judgment. The vast majority of permanent Las Vegas residents are hard-working lower-middle-class types. They are the people making the beds, serving the drinks, dealing the cards, etc. Just a little off the Strip either east or west, a 3-br home rents for about $1K/month, a basic apartment about $600. Outside the tourist areas and recent McMansion developments, there is surprisingly little luxury at all. The main school is UNLV with a payable tuition for state residents. And regardless of how down-and-out any specific individual might be, they will almost to a person wish you 'good luck' at the end of a conversation. ]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 01:17:48 -0400
Good riddance."

An unnecessary and incorrect judgment. The vast majority of permanent Las Vegas residents are hard-working lower-middle-class types. They are the people making the beds, serving the drinks, dealing the cards, etc. Just a little off the Strip either east or west, a 3-br home rents for about $1K/month, a basic apartment about $600. Outside the tourist areas and recent McMansion developments, there is surprisingly little luxury at all. The main school is UNLV with a payable tuition for state residents. And regardless of how down-and-out any specific individual might be, they will almost to a person wish you 'good luck' at the end of a conversation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146056-the-paradox-of-strategic-mortgage-defaults?source=feed#comment-575010 575010
Also of import, which I mention since I don't see in the current comments, is whether the home is in a 'recourse' or 'non-recourse' state. Not sure if the research took that into account. You don't walk away from a mortgage you can pay, if you have other assets that can be attached.]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:28:49 -0400
Also of import, which I mention since I don't see in the current comments, is whether the home is in a 'recourse' or 'non-recourse' state. Not sure if the research took that into account. You don't walk away from a mortgage you can pay, if you have other assets that can be attached.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147008-the-congressional-bailout-of-madoff-s-investors?source=feed#comment-574995 574995 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:09:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146803-wal-mart-and-offering-employees-strategic-healthcare?source=feed#comment-574175 574175
Unfortunately, you will also bail them out, as will we all.]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 23:12:03 -0400
Unfortunately, you will also bail them out, as will we all.]]>