iknoknot

Significant Silver Withdrawals from COMEX

tiger/kohala/jeff et. al. the discourse is enlightening and appreciated for the effort and content. Jeff's getting feisty, it seems, but the education is the most lucid presentation of the 'sides' i've ever read.

cheers to you all for your contributions.

--ikk

Was That the End of the Rally?

pondering - ok...

the inefficient jobs were shed months ago. these continued losses are well into the inner organs of real production capacity. good for giving the unions a wake-up call (which they won't hear), but not so good for our recovery.

jobs are the basis for American consumptions, which we're told is the basis for the American economy right now. Until we start to produce again, and the pricing of our in our (good) companies reflects their fundamental worth (P/Es, etc.), the market needs to continue to correct.

good read,

--ikk

This Rally Is Sustainable

thanks for an interesting read. i like the change of tone from this year's usual, and appreciate the substance behind it.

but as this market goes, i don't trust it as being much other than TARP/TALF money being laundered into the market via the recipient institutions, so they can issue inflated shares to cover their mistakes...

If this were a fundamentals based rally, where the values seemed like 'deals' based on quarterlies and systemic indications, i'd be more inclined to believe that this run is more like the other recoveries, but i don't see it that way at all. not only are the indicators still horrid, but the momentum is still way too strong in the wrong direction.

To be sure, your indicators are the right ones to watch - but i don't think 'less bad' is good enough to bet on. yet.

best wishes,

--ikk

Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell Side Is Passive Aggressive

i keep seeing the two competing axioms:

let your winnings run...

don't be greedy, take your winnings while they're still winnings...

Usually these reference a particular vehicle (like APPL), but right now, it seems like the entire equities market is in question... (bear rally, etc.).

With respect to your 5+ and 5-, my fear is WMT and its kin have the strength baked in by now... and arguably, the worse BAC is spun, the more potential is being wound up... ("c'mon lucky sevens...")

interesting times,

--ikk

Understanding Risk

Great read! tnx,

The quandry for me, is my urge and efforts to quantify risk with metrics, measurements, and weighting factors. These metrics are generally meaningful in their accuracy and audit-ability (e.g. book value is pretty measurable). And... these same 'tools' seem to get me through my daily life on the road, in sports, etc.

But stack these measurements (fundamentals) against TA, trends and emotional bubbles in this wild market, and it seems not to make much of a difference - and this last market dump (2008/9) blows away any urge to 'go long' through the noise to capitalize on the signal.

I'm currently trying to assess the risk of involvement, rather than any particular vehicle...

be well,

--ikk

How Will Gold Perform in the Coming Equity Crash?

Capt - With all due respect for your usual feedback, i come for the dialog as much as the answers... In fact, the more assertive the 'answers', the more likely i am to discount them.

To me it's all about the variables and their interactions, and the usual tone at SA is much like having chips and a beer with investing buddies.

but that's just me.

I enjoyed the article as thought provoking. My feeling is that dollar weakness will indeed show a different signature on the gold graphs if/when this rally turns. With 50 articles, 25 each for inflation/deflation that all make sense... I'm holding gold, but not sure (beyond my gut) why... :^)

good choices to all,

--ikk

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

so what positions do you recommend?

:^)
--ikk


On May 04 05:38 AM rick12345 wrote:

> North Korea, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan will form a secret alliance
> bringing about the onset of WW3. The Swine flu mutates with the bird
> flu to form a deadly new strain. After a massive nuclear war, the
> few people left in the world will face a nuclear winter that ultimately
> brings about a new Ice age, lasting 2000 years.

Buffett: I Wouldn't Buy Newspapers 'At Any Price'

The nice thing about the web-for-news, is I can vote with my bookmarks, and am wise enough to do so. The local rag in this town is a useless AP/UPI spew. Seeking Alpha and most of the sites I frequent have a great mix of bias that makes them discussions, not propaganda.

I subscribe for pay to a few sites, and when redirected to the NYT, I enjoy the idea that my ad-filters continue to help me contribute what I think they're worth :^)

--ikk

What Moves the Market?

the PPT?

:^)

--ikk

China's Gold: World Changing or Unsurprising?

why would china announce this?

to pressure the US to be responsible, for one...

to run up the price before dumping some? Certainly not in preparation to buy.

further endorsement of the gold standard (look world, we have lots too!)

or just to see what would happen (even if not true?) in the game.

--ikk

Gold Set for Huge Rally

i like gold, but you guys crack me up sometimes... from the headline on down.

must be something in the wine tonight...

of course, i hope you're right!

cheers,

--ikk

Google, the Newspapers and the Emperor's New Clothes

this is interesting. i suppose with everyone twittering the world (eyes everywhere), that the new model will be based more on consolidation of massive, effectively random, but not meaningless, information sources, rather than the current AP/UPI central authority/editor model.

it may end up with the same problems that youtube has though, lots of random, but not meaningless stuff, but no meaningful way to sort through it all... just like the 'net' was before altavista and google...

great tidbit - tnx.

--ikk

The Seduction of America

While i like the article, something about the 'poker game' bothered me too. Not just because the 'winners' in economic systems don't necessarily do so at the expense of the losers, but also because the winners in the markets doesn't just sit on the money, but rather they work it more e.g. most successful companies create new opportunities through growth and diversification - often to a fault.

I suppose it's natural to resent that one person/group controls how all of that wealth is controlled, but in a meritocracy, you could argue that he who wins (by fair means, in a fair game), has proven to be best suited to continue to do so. Put another way, given that a large number of those distributed millionaires have recently and clearly proven their *inability* to manage their assets to greater opportunity creation, it makes sense why more folks listen to Soros and Buffet than to Cramer.

Granted, the assumption of winning 'by fair means, in a fair game' is another article in its own right.

thanks for the great read,

--ikk

Digital Entities in a Physical World

i like the valuation in grams of gold. nice trend.

-ikk

An Insider's View of Commercial Real Estate

stark. Interesting what the 'projects' (sub corps) going under will do to the banks, leaving the 'mother-ship' corps less beaten on than you might expect. I wonder if prologis(PLD) and/or General Growth (GGP) -like companies do this too? Insulation like this changes the face of BK probabilities if so.

As a periodic SRS holder, beware the volatility, as well as the decay effect. Many seem quite happy to use it as a day/swing trader vehicle. Peruse the net for some very grounded articles on the leveraged ETF decay factors. Not a long-term tool, unless you *know* it's going up... :^)

--ikk