iknoknot's Comments iknoknot's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/267627/comments Significant Silver Withdrawals from COMEX http://seekingalpha.com/article/148141-significant-silver-withdrawals-from-comex?source=feed#comment-586985 586985
cheers to you all for your contributions.

--ikk]]>
Tue, 14 Jul 2009 06:31:20 -0400
cheers to you all for your contributions.

--ikk]]>
Was That the End of the Rally? http://seekingalpha.com/article/137484-was-that-the-end-of-the-rally?source=feed#comment-502447 502447
the inefficient jobs were shed months ago. these continued losses are well into the inner organs of real production capacity. good for giving the unions a wake-up call (which they won't hear), but not so good for our recovery.

jobs are the basis for American consumptions, which we're told is the basis for the American economy right now. Until we start to produce again, and the pricing of our in our (good) companies reflects their fundamental worth (P/Es, etc.), the market needs to continue to correct.

good read,

--ikk
]]>
Wed, 13 May 2009 14:40:26 -0400
the inefficient jobs were shed months ago. these continued losses are well into the inner organs of real production capacity. good for giving the unions a wake-up call (which they won't hear), but not so good for our recovery.

jobs are the basis for American consumptions, which we're told is the basis for the American economy right now. Until we start to produce again, and the pricing of our in our (good) companies reflects their fundamental worth (P/Es, etc.), the market needs to continue to correct.

good read,

--ikk
]]>
This Rally Is Sustainable http://seekingalpha.com/article/137317-this-rally-is-sustainable?source=feed#comment-501625 501625
but as this market goes, i don't trust it as being much other than TARP/TALF money being laundered into the market via the recipient institutions, so they can issue inflated shares to cover their mistakes...

If this were a fundamentals based rally, where the values seemed like 'deals' based on quarterlies and systemic indications, i'd be more inclined to believe that this run is more like the other recoveries, but i don't see it that way at all. not only are the indicators still horrid, but the momentum is still way too strong in the wrong direction.

To be sure, your indicators are the right ones to watch - but i don't think 'less bad' is good enough to bet on. yet.

best wishes,

--ikk]]>
Wed, 13 May 2009 06:25:36 -0400
but as this market goes, i don't trust it as being much other than TARP/TALF money being laundered into the market via the recipient institutions, so they can issue inflated shares to cover their mistakes...

If this were a fundamentals based rally, where the values seemed like 'deals' based on quarterlies and systemic indications, i'd be more inclined to believe that this run is more like the other recoveries, but i don't see it that way at all. not only are the indicators still horrid, but the momentum is still way too strong in the wrong direction.

To be sure, your indicators are the right ones to watch - but i don't think 'less bad' is good enough to bet on. yet.

best wishes,

--ikk]]>
Weekly Street Sentiment: Sell Side Is Passive Aggressive http://seekingalpha.com/article/137049-weekly-street-sentiment-sell-side-is-passive-aggressive?source=feed#comment-500020 500020
let your winnings run...

don't be greedy, take your winnings while they're still winnings...

Usually these reference a particular vehicle (like APPL), but right now, it seems like the entire equities market is in question... (bear rally, etc.).

With respect to your 5+ and 5-, my fear is WMT and its kin have the strength baked in by now... and arguably, the worse BAC is spun, the more potential is being wound up... ("c'mon lucky sevens...")

interesting times,

--ikk]]>
Tue, 12 May 2009 06:18:05 -0400
let your winnings run...

don't be greedy, take your winnings while they're still winnings...

Usually these reference a particular vehicle (like APPL), but right now, it seems like the entire equities market is in question... (bear rally, etc.).

With respect to your 5+ and 5-, my fear is WMT and its kin have the strength baked in by now... and arguably, the worse BAC is spun, the more potential is being wound up... ("c'mon lucky sevens...")

interesting times,

--ikk]]>
Understanding Risk http://seekingalpha.com/article/137058-understanding-risk?source=feed#comment-500013 500013
The quandry for me, is my urge and efforts to quantify risk with metrics, measurements, and weighting factors. These metrics are generally meaningful in their accuracy and audit-ability (e.g. book value is pretty measurable). And... these same 'tools' seem to get me through my daily life on the road, in sports, etc.

But stack these measurements (fundamentals) against TA, trends and emotional bubbles in this wild market, and it seems not to make much of a difference - and this last market dump (2008/9) blows away any urge to 'go long' through the noise to capitalize on the signal.

I'm currently trying to assess the risk of involvement, rather than any particular vehicle...

be well,

--ikk]]>
Tue, 12 May 2009 06:09:06 -0400
The quandry for me, is my urge and efforts to quantify risk with metrics, measurements, and weighting factors. These metrics are generally meaningful in their accuracy and audit-ability (e.g. book value is pretty measurable). And... these same 'tools' seem to get me through my daily life on the road, in sports, etc.

But stack these measurements (fundamentals) against TA, trends and emotional bubbles in this wild market, and it seems not to make much of a difference - and this last market dump (2008/9) blows away any urge to 'go long' through the noise to capitalize on the signal.

I'm currently trying to assess the risk of involvement, rather than any particular vehicle...

be well,

--ikk]]>
How Will Gold Perform in the Coming Equity Crash? http://seekingalpha.com/article/136849-how-will-gold-perform-in-the-coming-equity-crash?source=feed#comment-500000 500000
To me it's all about the variables and their interactions, and the usual tone at SA is much like having chips and a beer with investing buddies.

but that's just me.

I enjoyed the article as thought provoking. My feeling is that dollar weakness will indeed show a different signature on the gold graphs if/when this rally turns. With 50 articles, 25 each for inflation/deflation that all make sense... I'm holding gold, but not sure (beyond my gut) why... :^)

good choices to all,

--ikk]]>
Tue, 12 May 2009 05:55:10 -0400
To me it's all about the variables and their interactions, and the usual tone at SA is much like having chips and a beer with investing buddies.

but that's just me.

I enjoyed the article as thought provoking. My feeling is that dollar weakness will indeed show a different signature on the gold graphs if/when this rally turns. With 50 articles, 25 each for inflation/deflation that all make sense... I'm holding gold, but not sure (beyond my gut) why... :^)

good choices to all,

--ikk]]>
The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It) http://seekingalpha.com/article/134820-the-worst-case-scenario-someone-has-to-say-it?source=feed#comment-497342 497342
:^)
--ikk


On May 04 05:38 AM rick12345 wrote:

> North Korea, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan will form a secret alliance
> bringing about the onset of WW3. The Swine flu mutates with the bird
> flu to form a deadly new strain. After a massive nuclear war, the
> few people left in the world will face a nuclear winter that ultimately
> brings about a new Ice age, lasting 2000 years.]]>
Sun, 10 May 2009 03:13:15 -0400
:^)
--ikk


On May 04 05:38 AM rick12345 wrote:

> North Korea, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan will form a secret alliance
> bringing about the onset of WW3. The Swine flu mutates with the bird
> flu to form a deadly new strain. After a massive nuclear war, the
> few people left in the world will face a nuclear winter that ultimately
> brings about a new Ice age, lasting 2000 years.]]>
Buffett: I Wouldn't Buy Newspapers 'At Any Price' http://seekingalpha.com/article/134779-buffett-i-wouldn-t-buy-newspapers-at-any-price?source=feed#comment-488347 488347
I subscribe for pay to a few sites, and when redirected to the NYT, I enjoy the idea that my ad-filters continue to help me contribute what I think they're worth :^)

--ikk]]>
Mon, 04 May 2009 06:44:20 -0400
I subscribe for pay to a few sites, and when redirected to the NYT, I enjoy the idea that my ad-filters continue to help me contribute what I think they're worth :^)

--ikk]]>
What Moves the Market? http://seekingalpha.com/article/134213-what-moves-the-market?source=feed#comment-483607 483607
:^)

--ikk]]>
Thu, 30 Apr 2009 05:21:47 -0400
:^)

--ikk]]>
China's Gold: World Changing or Unsurprising? http://seekingalpha.com/article/133817-china-s-gold-world-changing-or-unsurprising?source=feed#comment-482146 482146
to pressure the US to be responsible, for one...

to run up the price before dumping some? Certainly not in preparation to buy.

further endorsement of the gold standard (look world, we have lots too!)

or just to see what would happen (even if not true?) in the game.

--ikk]]>
Wed, 29 Apr 2009 05:18:39 -0400
to pressure the US to be responsible, for one...

to run up the price before dumping some? Certainly not in preparation to buy.

further endorsement of the gold standard (look world, we have lots too!)

or just to see what would happen (even if not true?) in the game.

--ikk]]>
Gold Set for Huge Rally http://seekingalpha.com/article/131890-gold-set-for-huge-rally?source=feed#comment-470717 470717
must be something in the wine tonight...

of course, i hope you're right!

cheers,

--ikk]]>
Tue, 21 Apr 2009 05:20:38 -0400
must be something in the wine tonight...

of course, i hope you're right!

cheers,

--ikk]]>
Google, the Newspapers and the Emperor's New Clothes http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/104402-hedged-in/885-google-the-newspapers-and-the-emperor-s-new-clothes?source=feed#comment-468106 468106
it may end up with the same problems that youtube has though, lots of random, but not meaningless stuff, but no meaningful way to sort through it all... just like the 'net' was before altavista and google...

great tidbit - tnx.

--ikk]]>
Sun, 19 Apr 2009 06:55:11 -0400
it may end up with the same problems that youtube has though, lots of random, but not meaningless stuff, but no meaningful way to sort through it all... just like the 'net' was before altavista and google...

great tidbit - tnx.

--ikk]]>
The Seduction of America http://seekingalpha.com/article/131580-the-seduction-of-america?source=feed#comment-468104 468104
I suppose it's natural to resent that one person/group controls how all of that wealth is controlled, but in a meritocracy, you could argue that he who wins (by fair means, in a fair game), has proven to be best suited to continue to do so. Put another way, given that a large number of those distributed millionaires have recently and clearly proven their *inability* to manage their assets to greater opportunity creation, it makes sense why more folks listen to Soros and Buffet than to Cramer.

Granted, the assumption of winning 'by fair means, in a fair game' is another article in its own right.

thanks for the great read,

--ikk]]>
Sun, 19 Apr 2009 06:40:50 -0400
I suppose it's natural to resent that one person/group controls how all of that wealth is controlled, but in a meritocracy, you could argue that he who wins (by fair means, in a fair game), has proven to be best suited to continue to do so. Put another way, given that a large number of those distributed millionaires have recently and clearly proven their *inability* to manage their assets to greater opportunity creation, it makes sense why more folks listen to Soros and Buffet than to Cramer.

Granted, the assumption of winning 'by fair means, in a fair game' is another article in its own right.

thanks for the great read,

--ikk]]>
Digital Entities in a Physical World http://seekingalpha.com/article/130695-digital-entities-in-a-physical-world?source=feed#comment-463686 463686
-ikk]]>
Wed, 15 Apr 2009 01:14:00 -0400
-ikk]]>
An Insider's View of Commercial Real Estate http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/104402-hedged-in/438-an-insider-s-view-of-commercial-real-estate?source=feed#comment-463679 463679 PLD) and/or General Growth (GGP) -like companies do this too? Insulation like this changes the face of BK probabilities if so.

As a periodic SRS holder, beware the volatility, as well as the decay effect. Many seem quite happy to use it as a day/swing trader vehicle. Peruse the net for some very grounded articles on the leveraged ETF decay factors. Not a long-term tool, unless you *know* it's going up... :^)

--ikk]]>
Wed, 15 Apr 2009 01:02:21 -0400 PLD) and/or General Growth (GGP) -like companies do this too? Insulation like this changes the face of BK probabilities if so.

As a periodic SRS holder, beware the volatility, as well as the decay effect. Many seem quite happy to use it as a day/swing trader vehicle. Peruse the net for some very grounded articles on the leveraged ETF decay factors. Not a long-term tool, unless you *know* it's going up... :^)

--ikk]]>
Does This Sound Like 'Do No Evil'? http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/104402-hedged-in/205-does-this-sound-like-do-no-evil?source=feed#comment-459241 459241
my grumble is more with the premise of the issue:

AP says "we're going after content infringers"

MSM says "ooooooh, Google does this - sell their stock and ask them what they're gonna do now that they're caught"

Google says " wait a minute, we have a legit arrangement with our content providers, and we help them make money"

You say, "yah, but you didn't mention that *you* make money too!"

...

The whole conversation is based on what idiot MSM writers assumed... so the second tier responses are equally flawed - based on trusting the first tier idiots.

BTW - I don't own GOOG (yet?), and I despise the MSM - not you. But it seems to me you fell into the trap this time.

Keep up the generally great work.

FWIW - when I ask 'why are you on SA?' it might have been read as a judgment that you don't belong here - apologies if taken so. I meant it to highlight the irony ala " GOOG can't make money, but aren't *you* on SA to increase your ability to make money too?". Not intended to be rude.

cheers,

--ikk]]>
Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:34:17 -0400
my grumble is more with the premise of the issue:

AP says "we're going after content infringers"

MSM says "ooooooh, Google does this - sell their stock and ask them what they're gonna do now that they're caught"

Google says " wait a minute, we have a legit arrangement with our content providers, and we help them make money"

You say, "yah, but you didn't mention that *you* make money too!"

...

The whole conversation is based on what idiot MSM writers assumed... so the second tier responses are equally flawed - based on trusting the first tier idiots.

BTW - I don't own GOOG (yet?), and I despise the MSM - not you. But it seems to me you fell into the trap this time.

Keep up the generally great work.

FWIW - when I ask 'why are you on SA?' it might have been read as a judgment that you don't belong here - apologies if taken so. I meant it to highlight the irony ala " GOOG can't make money, but aren't *you* on SA to increase your ability to make money too?". Not intended to be rude.

cheers,

--ikk]]>
Does This Sound Like 'Do No Evil'? http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/104402-hedged-in/205-does-this-sound-like-do-no-evil?source=feed#comment-457230 457230
and them being in a revenue sharing relationship is bad? and not talking about it is some form of denial?

why are you on SA?

seriously... this isn't your usual signal/noise ratio. petty sensational small thinking envy. can't imagine buffet writing something like this...

--ikk]]>
Thu, 09 Apr 2009 05:30:24 -0400
and them being in a revenue sharing relationship is bad? and not talking about it is some form of denial?

why are you on SA?

seriously... this isn't your usual signal/noise ratio. petty sensational small thinking envy. can't imagine buffet writing something like this...

--ikk]]>
Revisiting Gold's Valuation http://seekingalpha.com/article/130190-revisiting-gold-s-valuation?source=feed#comment-457195 457195
nicely put - slightly different angle - i really like it.

I'm a little bit more simplistic: My son likes smooth shiny quartz crystals from the beach. So do his friends. He trades 'em for Legos.

I like gold. My friends do too. Someday we may trade...

--ikk]]>
Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:32:22 -0400
nicely put - slightly different angle - i really like it.

I'm a little bit more simplistic: My son likes smooth shiny quartz crystals from the beach. So do his friends. He trades 'em for Legos.

I like gold. My friends do too. Someday we may trade...

--ikk]]>
How Does One Value Gold? http://seekingalpha.com/article/130096-how-does-one-value-gold?source=feed#comment-457191 457191
Given that every government of note out there has some, and doesn't want it to become worthless over the long-term, it seems a lot less vulnerable to the intra-country bickering that currencies and other investment vehicles are going through right now.

All value is context sensitive (food vs gold when you're hungry), and as much as gold might *not* be worth, it "seems" a better option than a lot of the other options out there. Too bad most of us have been relegated to "seems" investing. Odd times.

--ikk]]>
Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:18:31 -0400
Given that every government of note out there has some, and doesn't want it to become worthless over the long-term, it seems a lot less vulnerable to the intra-country bickering that currencies and other investment vehicles are going through right now.

All value is context sensitive (food vs gold when you're hungry), and as much as gold might *not* be worth, it "seems" a better option than a lot of the other options out there. Too bad most of us have been relegated to "seems" investing. Odd times.

--ikk]]>
NY Fed Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started and Recession Will End This Year http://seekingalpha.com/article/130053-ny-fed-model-suggests-economic-recovery-has-started-and-recession-will-end-this-year?source=feed#comment-455756 455756
--ikk]]>
Wed, 08 Apr 2009 04:18:17 -0400
--ikk]]>
Payday Lenders Getting Obama'd http://seekingalpha.com/article/123428-payday-lenders-getting-obama-d?source=feed#comment-408845 408845
"Have Americans really become so dimwitted that they cannot make a competent decision about whether to use a payday loan ?"

as i see it, when mr. buffet misses the bottom call three times, can we safely assume that the average joe has enough understanding of the current situation to properly make a rational 400% loan decision? This has nothing to do with competence.

I defy anyone to explain to me why anyone bought (non-short) stocks on Friday. "certainly can't go much lower than this?". And I assure you the guys buying those stocks have much better access to the 'bigger picture' information driving today's markets, and they still bought.

not to miss your point, i abhor government regulation of this sort, but to assume competence is relevant when so little meaningful information is available (via the NYT, etc.) to otherwise bright people... hell, with these kinds of policies making headway, why stop there... perhaps brokerage firms should be shut down as well for allowing this same lunacy.

i'm concerned,

--ikk
]]>
Mon, 02 Mar 2009 03:33:18 -0500
"Have Americans really become so dimwitted that they cannot make a competent decision about whether to use a payday loan ?"

as i see it, when mr. buffet misses the bottom call three times, can we safely assume that the average joe has enough understanding of the current situation to properly make a rational 400% loan decision? This has nothing to do with competence.

I defy anyone to explain to me why anyone bought (non-short) stocks on Friday. "certainly can't go much lower than this?". And I assure you the guys buying those stocks have much better access to the 'bigger picture' information driving today's markets, and they still bought.

not to miss your point, i abhor government regulation of this sort, but to assume competence is relevant when so little meaningful information is available (via the NYT, etc.) to otherwise bright people... hell, with these kinds of policies making headway, why stop there... perhaps brokerage firms should be shut down as well for allowing this same lunacy.

i'm concerned,

--ikk
]]>
Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble? http://seekingalpha.com/article/121250-gold-the-only-remaining-bubble?source=feed#comment-396096 396096
cheers,

--ikk]]>
Fri, 20 Feb 2009 02:46:22 -0500
cheers,

--ikk]]>
Does the Dow Matter? http://seekingalpha.com/article/121410-does-the-dow-matter?source=feed#comment-396021 396021 DJIA) as being useful as a layman's metric.

With all due respect, I'm not buying it, mostly because the historic graph seems to always go up. Considering "survivor bias", how many of today's Dow companies have been there since it was established as an index? All the dead ones have been replaced with newer shiny models... No wonder the graph averages up. Then consider the inflation graph paralleling the Dow. Subtract that bias, and perhaps the Dow would be more meaningful.

I prefer an inflation-adjusted DJ Wilshire 5k... (using John William's shadowstats as an inflation basis...)

best

--ikk]]>
Thu, 19 Feb 2009 23:55:32 -0500 DJIA) as being useful as a layman's metric.

With all due respect, I'm not buying it, mostly because the historic graph seems to always go up. Considering "survivor bias", how many of today's Dow companies have been there since it was established as an index? All the dead ones have been replaced with newer shiny models... No wonder the graph averages up. Then consider the inflation graph paralleling the Dow. Subtract that bias, and perhaps the Dow would be more meaningful.

I prefer an inflation-adjusted DJ Wilshire 5k... (using John William's shadowstats as an inflation basis...)

best

--ikk]]>
Enlightening the Gold Bugs http://seekingalpha.com/article/112186-enlightening-the-gold-bugs?source=feed#comment-337746 337746
with gold/PMs, the tendency is to trust that having *something* other than paper is somehow more secure. i agree. worst case, my wife or kids might find more value in the beauty of metal coins than of any madoff investment confirmation letters. neither would feed my family directly, but history does show metals generally have a better track-record than any government, let alone its paper.

i have virtually no faith in anyone else holding my money right now. why would i, when the likes of madoff - with credentials, trust/social strength, industry smarts, etc. are out there? and my faith in the government looking out for my better interest is even less. TARP? god help us and the next generation.

i have much more trust that *any* of my neighbors would look upon a bag of silver/gold coins in *any* context and appreciate that i had something of value. how much - only the situation would tell, but too many pirate treasure movies have taught us to respond thus. i'm also sure that my IBM stock certificates wouldn't garner much more than bemused looks if presented to a hungry enough crowd...

but gold (with its bugs) is interesting on the global scale - much like a group of technical traders that look at the same graph with the same reference manual... if they all buy on the same signal, the price goes up. does the possibility that the graph was random up to that point matter? no, not at all. even if they self-fulfill, they are still 'correct' and therefore successful. although i still don't buy it, the results are not a judgment, they are quite auditable.

it's when such systems lose their confidence/trust (e.g. real-estate always goes up) that things get interesting.

Mark, i hope you had fun stirring up the hive (it amuses me as well), and i hope your dollars hold their value, as that means we're all still doing OK. in the interim, i'll keep some of the shiny yellow metal around to make *me* feel better about *my* standing in this mess, and if enough of us do this (if for not other reason than to 'feel better' - like the graph watching traders), we won't be wrong in having done so.

cheers,

--ikk

]]>
Wed, 24 Dec 2008 15:43:11 -0500
with gold/PMs, the tendency is to trust that having *something* other than paper is somehow more secure. i agree. worst case, my wife or kids might find more value in the beauty of metal coins than of any madoff investment confirmation letters. neither would feed my family directly, but history does show metals generally have a better track-record than any government, let alone its paper.

i have virtually no faith in anyone else holding my money right now. why would i, when the likes of madoff - with credentials, trust/social strength, industry smarts, etc. are out there? and my faith in the government looking out for my better interest is even less. TARP? god help us and the next generation.

i have much more trust that *any* of my neighbors would look upon a bag of silver/gold coins in *any* context and appreciate that i had something of value. how much - only the situation would tell, but too many pirate treasure movies have taught us to respond thus. i'm also sure that my IBM stock certificates wouldn't garner much more than bemused looks if presented to a hungry enough crowd...

but gold (with its bugs) is interesting on the global scale - much like a group of technical traders that look at the same graph with the same reference manual... if they all buy on the same signal, the price goes up. does the possibility that the graph was random up to that point matter? no, not at all. even if they self-fulfill, they are still 'correct' and therefore successful. although i still don't buy it, the results are not a judgment, they are quite auditable.

it's when such systems lose their confidence/trust (e.g. real-estate always goes up) that things get interesting.

Mark, i hope you had fun stirring up the hive (it amuses me as well), and i hope your dollars hold their value, as that means we're all still doing OK. in the interim, i'll keep some of the shiny yellow metal around to make *me* feel better about *my* standing in this mess, and if enough of us do this (if for not other reason than to 'feel better' - like the graph watching traders), we won't be wrong in having done so.

cheers,

--ikk

]]>
New Index for Carbon Credit Trading http://seekingalpha.com/article/110985-new-index-for-carbon-credit-trading?source=feed#comment-331698 331698
a clever friend suggested we purchase and consume a few so-called 'carbon credits' by burning these institutions to the ground.

--ikk]]>
Wed, 17 Dec 2008 04:12:55 -0500
a clever friend suggested we purchase and consume a few so-called 'carbon credits' by burning these institutions to the ground.

--ikk]]>
Deflation: The Beast Is Here http://seekingalpha.com/article/110971-deflation-the-beast-is-here?source=feed#comment-331694 331694
somehow, when i consider the agenda of the guys with the (CPI) numbers, i don't trust their numbers. (see john williams @ shadowstats.com

cheers,

--ikk]]>
Wed, 17 Dec 2008 04:07:42 -0500
somehow, when i consider the agenda of the guys with the (CPI) numbers, i don't trust their numbers. (see john williams @ shadowstats.com

cheers,

--ikk]]>
Gold is One of the Few Assets That's Up for the Year http://seekingalpha.com/article/110910-gold-is-one-of-the-few-assets-that-s-up-for-the-year?source=feed#comment-331692 331692
i've been getting tired of the usual 'gold is down 30% from its $1000 mid-year high' garbage that the pro-fiat media-machine keeps pumping out every time it's mentioned as an investment...

fickle girl, gold... but she seems to come through over time.

tnx,

--ikk]]>
Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:56:16 -0500
i've been getting tired of the usual 'gold is down 30% from its $1000 mid-year high' garbage that the pro-fiat media-machine keeps pumping out every time it's mentioned as an investment...

fickle girl, gold... but she seems to come through over time.

tnx,

--ikk]]>
Institutional Investors Optimistic About 2009 Market Rebound - Citigroup http://seekingalpha.com/article/111044-institutional-investors-optimistic-about-2009-market-rebound-citigroup?source=feed#comment-331688 331688
indeed, as a group, they *can* run the markets up, but this implies that none of them will "take theirs off the table" before the rest of 'em do :^)

we've seen how likely that scenario is... (everyone's a day-trader these days)

Same as before: confidence based on others' confidence. Only when the fundamentals (in all asset classes) get back in order will rationality have a chance to re-assert itself. CRE/credit-cards/treas... to go, then maybe we can take this mess seriously again.

cheers,

-ikk

]]>
Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:46:27 -0500
indeed, as a group, they *can* run the markets up, but this implies that none of them will "take theirs off the table" before the rest of 'em do :^)

we've seen how likely that scenario is... (everyone's a day-trader these days)

Same as before: confidence based on others' confidence. Only when the fundamentals (in all asset classes) get back in order will rationality have a chance to re-assert itself. CRE/credit-cards/treas... to go, then maybe we can take this mess seriously again.

cheers,

-ikk

]]>
Madoff's Curtain Call: Sell When Transparency Is Absent http://seekingalpha.com/article/110650-madoff-s-curtain-call-sell-when-transparency-is-absent?source=feed#comment-329610 329610
why take the 'short' risk on xlf when you have skf?

--ikk]]>
Mon, 15 Dec 2008 03:30:44 -0500
why take the 'short' risk on xlf when you have skf?

--ikk]]>
Rethinking Diversification http://seekingalpha.com/article/110589-rethinking-diversification?source=feed#comment-329294 329294
while you've recently chosen to 'take the field', i fear most investors will continue to enjoy their beers and hot-dogs up in the stands.

apparently the cost of investing correctly transcends the brokerage fees.

thanks for the thoughts,

--ikk]]>
Sun, 14 Dec 2008 16:09:29 -0500
while you've recently chosen to 'take the field', i fear most investors will continue to enjoy their beers and hot-dogs up in the stands.

apparently the cost of investing correctly transcends the brokerage fees.

thanks for the thoughts,

--ikk]]>