iknoknot

Was That the End of the Rally?

pondering - ok...

the inefficient jobs were shed months ago. these continued losses are well into the inner organs of real production capacity. good for giving the unions a wake-up call (which they won't hear), but not so good for our recovery.

jobs are the basis for American consumptions, which we're told is the basis for the American economy right now. Until we start to produce again, and the pricing of our in our (good) companies reflects their fundamental worth (P/Es, etc.), the market needs to continue to correct.

good read,

--ikk

This Rally Is Sustainable

thanks for an interesting read. i like the change of tone from this year's usual, and appreciate the substance behind it.

but as this market goes, i don't trust it as being much other than TARP/TALF money being laundered into the market via the recipient institutions, so they can issue inflated shares to cover their mistakes...

If this were a fundamentals based rally, where the values seemed like 'deals' based on quarterlies and systemic indications, i'd be more inclined to believe that this run is more like the other recoveries, but i don't see it that way at all. not only are the indicators still horrid, but the momentum is still way too strong in the wrong direction.

To be sure, your indicators are the right ones to watch - but i don't think 'less bad' is good enough to bet on. yet.

best wishes,

--ikk

How Will Gold Perform in the Coming Equity Crash?

Capt - With all due respect for your usual feedback, i come for the dialog as much as the answers... In fact, the more assertive the 'answers', the more likely i am to discount them.

To me it's all about the variables and their interactions, and the usual tone at SA is much like having chips and a beer with investing buddies.

but that's just me.

I enjoyed the article as thought provoking. My feeling is that dollar weakness will indeed show a different signature on the gold graphs if/when this rally turns. With 50 articles, 25 each for inflation/deflation that all make sense... I'm holding gold, but not sure (beyond my gut) why... :^)

good choices to all,

--ikk

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

so what positions do you recommend?

:^)
--ikk


On May 04 05:38 AM rick12345 wrote:

> North Korea, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan will form a secret alliance
> bringing about the onset of WW3. The Swine flu mutates with the bird
> flu to form a deadly new strain. After a massive nuclear war, the
> few people left in the world will face a nuclear winter that ultimately
> brings about a new Ice age, lasting 2000 years.

What Moves the Market?

the PPT?

:^)

--ikk

The Seduction of America

While i like the article, something about the 'poker game' bothered me too. Not just because the 'winners' in economic systems don't necessarily do so at the expense of the losers, but also because the winners in the markets doesn't just sit on the money, but rather they work it more e.g. most successful companies create new opportunities through growth and diversification - often to a fault.

I suppose it's natural to resent that one person/group controls how all of that wealth is controlled, but in a meritocracy, you could argue that he who wins (by fair means, in a fair game), has proven to be best suited to continue to do so. Put another way, given that a large number of those distributed millionaires have recently and clearly proven their *inability* to manage their assets to greater opportunity creation, it makes sense why more folks listen to Soros and Buffet than to Cramer.

Granted, the assumption of winning 'by fair means, in a fair game' is another article in its own right.

thanks for the great read,

--ikk

NY Fed Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started and Recession Will End This Year

i wonder if their model is related to the one AIG uses

--ikk

Does the Dow Matter?

deflation rocks indicates the Dow (DJIA) as being useful as a layman's metric.

With all due respect, I'm not buying it, mostly because the historic graph seems to always go up. Considering "survivor bias", how many of today's Dow companies have been there since it was established as an index? All the dead ones have been replaced with newer shiny models... No wonder the graph averages up. Then consider the inflation graph paralleling the Dow. Subtract that bias, and perhaps the Dow would be more meaningful.

I prefer an inflation-adjusted DJ Wilshire 5k... (using John William's shadowstats as an inflation basis...)

best

--ikk

Is America on a Downward Slope?

the most balanced and comprehensive article on the mess I've seen to date. i'll forward liberally.

without proper understanding, there will likely be no relevant solutions. thank you very much for your investment in this article and all of us.

--ikk

Give Me Three Reasons to Stay in This Market

while your article is a relevant extended question more than it is advice - and appreciated as such - let me counter with a question: what are the elements that help you determine where to put those stops you mention - to beat the noise and shakeouts?

I've seen many of my buy-and-hold buddies lose their shirts, but my skill hasn't been so hot with stop-losses, when those shake-out drops kick me out then continue back up, leaving me in the dust on the runs... :^)

any favorite tricks, once you've committed to your buy?

tnx,

--ikk

What We Don't Know about the Markets

thanks for a good read.

In addition to the rational points you make, I like JasonC's perspective on offers to buy what he won't sell - I liken it to buying a gold coin for 800 and having someone offer me 600 a week later. Even if 600 is 'market', it's only market to me if I need the money near-term. Sure, I hate the perceived loss, but when I bought it, it was worth 800 *to me*, and until my situation changes, I'll only sell it for something near that or more. More like buying a tool than betting on poker.

If I'm speculating, such a price drop would merely prove me wrong in my bet, and I would pragmatically take my lumps, deal me the next hand... But generally I'm not a speculator.

If I'm a value/growth investor, I assume I've somehow assessed some inherent value, rather than trying to predict market whims, and decided that the current value is low and will someday go up. I have to admit, that's not how I've been looking at this nutzo market for the last few months, and maybe that would be a healthy change of perspective, along with your prudent caution and diversification advice.

tnx,

--ikk

Stop Calling This a Depression

flow5,

that list is 'depressing' ...

-ikk

Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold

DVW,

Inflation across all currencies is an equalizer of sorts, but ends up robbing all citizens of their respective wealth equally. Regardless of the denomination, an excess of currency chasing fixed items will result in inflated prices for those items - regardless. I don't believe that it is a "currency relative" phenomena.

2cts
--ikk

Stop Calling This a Depression

(an hour later) sorry for the rant - i stand by my points, but want to credit the author more than i did.

yes, the media frenzy to create doom/gloom is working, and is only as effective as we let it become. If we invest more faith in the rest of us honest bill-paying folk, and that better side of america, we'll come through this mess intact, maybe stronger. (til then, "we're friggin dooomed :^)

thanks for the article.

--ikk

Stop Calling This a Depression

"Contrary to popular opinion there is plenty of blame to go around to all parties involved."

don't even begin to go there.

i pay my friggin bills and keep my friggin promises - the kind that I've made that I dam well intend to keep.

now i'm forced to help pay for this collection of losers without any indication that any of them will be punished for any of their broken promises/defaults. even worse, they're getting sympathy from the bleeding friggin hearts in the media and liberal "fix the world's problems think-tanks/media".

Un-beleeevable.

At each layer of this process, people were trusted to 'do the right thing', both legally, and with their integrity. Apparently when nobody's watching, those things don't matter.

the premise of your piece, is simply that without confidence, the system collapses, so stop calling it a depression, and we'll all get confident again, and things will be OK. nice.

Semantically you may be correct in the technical aspects of a defined recession/depression, etc., but words-shmords, you're completely overlooking the real issue underneath the problem. We're in the throes of a cultural depression/recession beyond belief. who the hell should I trust now?

My neighbor?, who says 'my house isn't worth the payment, so f---it? or my banker?, who gave my savings to that idiot, knowing full well that they probably wouldn't get it back?, or my mortgage broker?, who used obfuscation to hide his crap amongst the goodies, or my republican congress?, who could have overruled the "fix freddie/fannie" 'no' vote if they had really wanted to, or the democrats who wanted to give everyone a house?

Give me a break. Based on this complete Cultural Failure, the current financial failure is child's play, and we've only seen the beginning of a "f--it, i'm gonna get mine" cycle that will only grow as the new administration keeps its un-affordable promises to make everyone comfortable and happy.

good luck, and get out of cash. "we're friggin doomed"

have a nice day,

--ikk