iknoknot

How Will Gold Perform in the Coming Equity Crash?

Capt - With all due respect for your usual feedback, i come for the dialog as much as the answers... In fact, the more assertive the 'answers', the more likely i am to discount them.

To me it's all about the variables and their interactions, and the usual tone at SA is much like having chips and a beer with investing buddies.

but that's just me.

I enjoyed the article as thought provoking. My feeling is that dollar weakness will indeed show a different signature on the gold graphs if/when this rally turns. With 50 articles, 25 each for inflation/deflation that all make sense... I'm holding gold, but not sure (beyond my gut) why... :^)

good choices to all,

--ikk

China's Gold: World Changing or Unsurprising?

why would china announce this?

to pressure the US to be responsible, for one...

to run up the price before dumping some? Certainly not in preparation to buy.

further endorsement of the gold standard (look world, we have lots too!)

or just to see what would happen (even if not true?) in the game.

--ikk

Gold Set for Huge Rally

i like gold, but you guys crack me up sometimes... from the headline on down.

must be something in the wine tonight...

of course, i hope you're right!

cheers,

--ikk

Revisiting Gold's Valuation

Jaybny: 'its a risk reward thing... or insurance.. "i am willling to risk holding an asset that payes no paper interest and is currently useless... for the reward of surviving", during above mentioned events.'

nicely put - slightly different angle - i really like it.

I'm a little bit more simplistic: My son likes smooth shiny quartz crystals from the beach. So do his friends. He trades 'em for Legos.

I like gold. My friends do too. Someday we may trade...

--ikk

How Does One Value Gold?

As arbitrary as it seems, gold has both history and women's taste working for it... best not to underestimate either force over the long term :^)

Given that every government of note out there has some, and doesn't want it to become worthless over the long-term, it seems a lot less vulnerable to the intra-country bickering that currencies and other investment vehicles are going through right now.

All value is context sensitive (food vs gold when you're hungry), and as much as gold might *not* be worth, it "seems" a better option than a lot of the other options out there. Too bad most of us have been relegated to "seems" investing. Odd times.

--ikk

Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble?

While I enjoy your gold commentaries as interesting (and gutsy on SA) alternative views, I submit with due respect that if you call on gold's demise for long enough, you will eventually be right...

cheers,

--ikk

Enlightening the Gold Bugs

i think Mark is simply enjoying poking fun at the gold-bugs while he sips a bailey's on ice. it really is pretty funny to watch. while everyone's history is probably a bit off, he cover's the gold-skeptic's perspective well-enough to warrant the article.

with gold/PMs, the tendency is to trust that having *something* other than paper is somehow more secure. i agree. worst case, my wife or kids might find more value in the beauty of metal coins than of any madoff investment confirmation letters. neither would feed my family directly, but history does show metals generally have a better track-record than any government, let alone its paper.

i have virtually no faith in anyone else holding my money right now. why would i, when the likes of madoff - with credentials, trust/social strength, industry smarts, etc. are out there? and my faith in the government looking out for my better interest is even less. TARP? god help us and the next generation.

i have much more trust that *any* of my neighbors would look upon a bag of silver/gold coins in *any* context and appreciate that i had something of value. how much - only the situation would tell, but too many pirate treasure movies have taught us to respond thus. i'm also sure that my IBM stock certificates wouldn't garner much more than bemused looks if presented to a hungry enough crowd...

but gold (with its bugs) is interesting on the global scale - much like a group of technical traders that look at the same graph with the same reference manual... if they all buy on the same signal, the price goes up. does the possibility that the graph was random up to that point matter? no, not at all. even if they self-fulfill, they are still 'correct' and therefore successful. although i still don't buy it, the results are not a judgment, they are quite auditable.

it's when such systems lose their confidence/trust (e.g. real-estate always goes up) that things get interesting.

Mark, i hope you had fun stirring up the hive (it amuses me as well), and i hope your dollars hold their value, as that means we're all still doing OK. in the interim, i'll keep some of the shiny yellow metal around to make *me* feel better about *my* standing in this mess, and if enough of us do this (if for not other reason than to 'feel better' - like the graph watching traders), we won't be wrong in having done so.

cheers,

--ikk

Gold is One of the Few Assets That's Up for the Year

thanks for the data.

i've been getting tired of the usual 'gold is down 30% from its $1000 mid-year high' garbage that the pro-fiat media-machine keeps pumping out every time it's mentioned as an investment...

fickle girl, gold... but she seems to come through over time.

tnx,

--ikk

The Coming Dollar Deflation

good read, but i disagree that the dollar is strong. maybe the 'last to die' relative to the rest of the world, but with our debt-base, it's certainly not healthy in any frame-of-reference.

your comments about schiff, roubini, setzer, etc. indicate a naive assumption that their predictive time-frames mirror yours. they may not know exactly when, but they've all nailed this one to the 't', with facts and causal substance beyond 2-4 years back. my trend analysis of their results keeps me vested in their 'graphs', over any of the recent dips in the gold 'graphs' of these last few months.

lastly, like anything of value, fluctuation will continue to occur with gold, and it will, by force of world-banks, IMFs, and play-makers at large, be beaten from its 'natural value', and it will return thus, as it it always has. i think it will be sooner rather than later, and when considering a place for my money, gold is hardly the 'dangerous' repository.

be well,
--ikk

Surprising Call for Return to the Gold Standard

the thing that makes a commodity standard appealing, is that it enforces an audit-ability upon leverage, therefore helping to prevent its abuse.

While it may not prevent banks from leveraging their depositors' money 60 to one, I'm sure if I could verify their loan amounts against their gold holdings, it would be much easier to decide not to use that bank.

Free markets, when transparent, can and do work. It's the evil men who hide the truth while they siphon the results of their deceptions into their own accounts - that cause the problems. You cannot compel me to believe that man will change, but I can assure you that gold will not change.

best wishes

--ikk

Gold Tests Its Reversal Level: Third Time's the Charm

that calculator, while handy, presumes the US gov's perspective of CPI/inflation. Following John William's shadowstats site, I wonder what the real numbers are...

triple resistance aside, this next month has all the makings of an interesting month in the gold sphere.

--ikk

Gold Stocks Rebound

i'd be interested in seeing the same graph with John Williams' shadowstats.com inflation numbers. It might only be a relative difference, but it would be interesting to know if there were any other interesting patterns.

tnx for the read,

--ikk

The Perversion of American Capitalism

the article is rich with thought-provoking ideas. nicely written, and worth the read.

an additional author comment caught my eye relative to the current raging debate between inflation/deflation, which indicated that money known to be inflating will be spent rather than hoarded.

to me, that single comment will probably be driving my investment thinking over the next year. regarding inflation, it's not "if", it's "when". Either the US inflates or defaults. Inflation is much less obvious.

--ikk

Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold

DVW,

Inflation across all currencies is an equalizer of sorts, but ends up robbing all citizens of their respective wealth equally. Regardless of the denomination, an excess of currency chasing fixed items will result in inflated prices for those items - regardless. I don't believe that it is a "currency relative" phenomena.

2cts
--ikk

First Fuel, Now Metals - Forecasts Lowered

all this credit flooding the market and 30 year mortgages going up to prove it (?)

what do those silly banks know about pending inflation that i don't?

lots.

ladies and gentlemen, place your bets