iknoknot

Is the Microsoft Empire Cracking?

Regardless of the alternatives, MSFT products are like the big three auto-makers' products. Thick, buggy, and rich with commercial momentum (which is keeping them alive). Unless MSFT fixes their monolithic behemoth product lines, they will face the same fate. It's not 'if', it's 'when'.

All you need is a national situation to occur where virtually all cash-strapped small businesses and schools runs out of money and are forced to consider/try cheaper/equivalent alternatives (linux, google-apps, etc.).

And all those alternatives have to do is perform as well as Vista...

:^)

--ikk

A Buy & Hold Forever Dividend Stock Portfolio

i like the list.

keeping an eye on the biggest winners/losers on a regular basis might be prudent, although it looks like that might defeat the point of the buy and hope ideal... this market is getting more and more 'performance' driven rather than 'value' driven, so the buy and hold theme might be too spooky for a while.

tnx for the ideas - well worth the read.

--ikk

The Most Dangerous Place to Get Investing Advice

great article (and comments)

Forgetting periods of mass hysteria... the 'game' of market (be it gold, stocks, bonds, tulip-bulbs, etc.) is arbitrage, which is inherently relative to the 'real value' of that market.

An obvious idea until you try to assess that 'value'. Is it buildings and trucks (pretty safe to estimate)?, or brand value (?). Add to the buildings and trucks, the recent concept of 'efficient information systems' like amazon, google, and ebay, where the internal information flow mastery is every bit as real as a truck, but much harder to measure... what is a fair book value?

As an optimist, I like to trust the annual/quarterly reports, but ala Adam Smith's anecdotes in the timeless 'The Money Game', creative accounting and greed often leave reality behind. How many more Enrons are lurking out there?

Dylan's advice makes sense in most contexts, which is all one can ask for in such an article - Additionally, his points make even more sense if you consider the inversion of any single element: e.g. would you invest in a company with a CEO that didn't have and interest in the firm? Is it wise to buy into something that you know nothing about? If so, how can you estimate the exit point?

thanks for the good read. it keeps the gears going.

good luck out there!

--ikk