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  • Jony Ive Was Demoted, Not Promoted, And Other Things Apple [View article]
    Smart phones have become commoditized, Android phones only though.
    Android in fact has become a separate market from Apple. Yes there are massive steady migrations of customers from Android to IOS, but once an IOS user always an IOS user and almost no one ever switches back.

    One reason AAPl stock is so cheap is that Wall ST by in large still dsoesn't understand this basic fact. It is puzzling as there are many smart people on Wall St but many of them dont seem to be able to do simple math, they merely follow others like lemmings, or let their personal prejudices rule their stock selection. WHy else would otherwise perfectly fine bank brokers like Wells Fargo, Citi and others downgrade AAPL before record-breaking earnings announcements, and then not apologize and do a mea culpa afterwards?

    For several years now there is some kind of conspiracy going on to keep AAPl from recovering its full stock value. Yes it has risen a lot in the last year, but the stock price still lags far behind reality. The 13-14 is ridiculous as obviously Apple is growing a lot faster than that. And as Carl Icahn shows, if given only a moderate 18 PE, AAPL would sell at $240. And AAPL actually deserves a PE in the 20's. Like GOOG. And GOOG doesn't deserve their 28 PE at all, hasn't for years. SO until these two companies more or less swap PE's a great opportunity is there for investors in AAPL and shorters of GOOG. I would also short FB which is perhaps the most overvalued stock since Enron or CMGI.
    May 30, 2015. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jony Ive Was Demoted, Not Promoted, And Other Things Apple [View article]
    Let me correct several major errors Paulo made in this article.

    1) Ives definitely got promoted, and is now being given more freedom to do what he does best, dream and design a multitude of possible new products and improvements.

    2) The Apple Watch will sell north of 30 million units by year's end. They sold out the first million the first day and then shortly after that there was a supply glitch. But sales will accelerating greatly by the end of this month when watches will be physically available in all Apple Stores. Expect half the sales to come from CHina where it is all the rage, but globally it is a real disruptor. The watch industry is already feeling it painfully (see Michael Kors recent report)

    3) Only 20% of Apple users have yet upgraded to iPhone6. So within a year or two the number will be 90%. Very few Apple users do not upgrade within 3 years. As for the 6S or 7 or whatever it will be called, be certain it will contain valuable upgrades. Apple might also make a small iPhone and is refurbing and re-selling tens of millions of iPhone5's. Especially since many developing markets have only just begun to enjoy availability of Apple products, expect iPhone purchases to keep growing at around a 20% clip for several years to come.

    I would also point out that any "glass half empty" argument on Apple ignores the fact that the stock is more or less 100% undervalues. In fact, ex cash (190 billion) the 545 billion market cap is about what the iPhone alone is worth, so you are getting everything else for free at today's prices, including the golden goose that is actually APple's most valuable asset, IOS itself.

    AAPL is a no-brainer strong buy at least up to 180. And it's last competitor GOOG with its 28 PE and slow facing earnings growth (plus the fact Apple Search is coming) is a strong sell, a take the profits and run stock. Ditto Facebook where a lot of tech investors have foolishly speculated that a company that earns no money is worth more than Disney, GE and Coca Cola. NOT

    The fundamental truth that Wall St still doesn't get is that one Apple customer is worth at least $1500 in profit. One Android no more than $100. and one Facebook active user about $10. So numbers of users or units sold have little relation to real profits. In terms of profits, Apple completely dominates the industry, and CHina alone provides enough growth for Apple to keep dominating for many years to come.
    May 30, 2015. 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Screening airline stocks by correlation to oil prices [View news story]
    No, I heard AAL is not hedging so they get the full benefit of low fuel prices.
    I was in CPA last year and it hedged and lost the entire benefit. Hedging is not safe after all, in fact these days with lower fuel prices it is foolish.
    May 30, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Jony Ive Promotion [View article]
    PS: With all the great things going Apple's way and coming up the pike, Wall ST shows its stupidity and ignorance again today by selling AAPL off $1.50. Just very very out of it. Perhaps some mindless selling program which knows nothing about reality.
    May 29, 2015. 08:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Jony Ive Promotion [View article]
    Jony has been promoted to Chief Genius without need for all the day to day office minutia. Now he has time to dream and has assembled quite team of geniuses around him him to help him to do. They can hang on in St Tropez and do that iof they please. The message is to be a free artist visionary and not have to clock in at CUpertino if he doesn't feel like it. SO it is a promotion for sure.

    Perhaps more important is the un-publicized promotion of Jimmy Iovine to Chief Media and MArketing executive. Iovine is now in charge of TV, games, music, advertising and anything else Madison Ave or Hollywood connected.

    I firmly believe that with Apple mountain of cash behind him, Iovine can literally do almost anything Apple wants or needs in the entertainment and ad/marketing sectors, including making Apple TV #1 in the world and Beats streaming also #1., plus the build out of Apple advertising, a huge potential collosus which has the potential to dwarf Google and Facebook put together and all without datamining its customers of intruding on their personal privacy, something Google and Facebook do constantly..
    May 29, 2015. 08:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple The Lead Beneficiary Of The Multibillion-Dollar Mobile Games Industry [View article]
    Also, I am not a gamer myself but I hear they have the best chips for gaming, and also expect a big upgrade to Apple TV soon which will include gaming as well as all other video.
    May 29, 2015. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple The Lead Beneficiary Of The Multibillion-Dollar Mobile Games Industry [View article]
    Google Android users are increasingly lower and lower income people around the world. They do not pay to play games, they use whatever free ones are available.
    Same as What's Ap users getting free phonecalls in fragmented recorded pieces. The world's poor and low income people are almost all on Android and What's Ap/Facebook now. But those users (1 billion or so) are not valuable, at least nowhere near as valuable as Wall st gives FB and GOOG credit for. While Apple users are tremendously valuable, about $1500 in profit to Apple per user. By contrast an Android of FB user may not even be worth $5, but certainly no more than $100 for Android and $20 for facebook-What's Ap. And neither GOOG nor FB can even begin to monetize enough to deserve their valuations, esp FB whose active users are now priced at $450 by Wall St, patently absurd.

    Apple IOS users are generally much more likely to pay for games, and they all have credit cards, which the majority of Android customers do not. IOS users are about ten times as likely to buy something online. Plus they are very brand loyal. And Android users are not. A huge huge difference.

    Hence like everything else on e-commerce, Apple and IOS reap the majority of the profits while Android and Facebook reap the majority of poor users who will never spend a dime and are not even valuable as viewers of advertising.

    I estimate that AAPL is worth 7-8 times what GOOG is worth today, or 50 times what FB is worth.. And GOOG has twice the PE of AAPL, but it should be the other way around.

    My targets are $200+ for AAPL. $250-300 for GOOG and $40 for FB (still overvalued) within a year or so once Wal ST figures all this out.
    May 29, 2015. 01:59 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Will Likely Remain The Default Search Engine On Apple iOS Devices [View article]
    Apple challenges Google with growing Web search program, fueled by Topsy acquisition
    By Sam Oliver
    Wednesday, May 06, 2015,


    Apple's rapidly-expanding internal search group — aimed at making Spotlight a legitimate Web search engine — is being led by the team acquired in 2013 with social search firm Topsy, AppleInsider has learned.

    Topsy co-founder and CTO Vipul Ved Prakash serves as the search group's director of engineering, while Topsy product chief Jamie de Guerre leads the engineering program management team. Perl luminary Chip Salzenberg — Topsy's former chief engineer — is "reifying Star Trek" for the iPhone maker.

    Apple paid more than $200 million for Topsy, one of the few analytics firms with access to Twitter's "firehose," a realtime stream of each and every tweet.

    While Apple's intentions were unclear at the time, it now appears that the company was interested in Topsy's indexing and searching expertise, rather than anything specifically related to social media — though tweets are on their way to Spotlight. The team that Prakash and de Guerre helm is primarily comprised of former Topsy staff.

    Publicly, the deal first paid dividends with the release of OS X Yosemite and the new "Spotlight Suggestions" feature, which integrates information from the web into Spotlight searches and powers the suggested results seen in Safari 8's smart search field.

    "The Topsy team is responsible for Spotlight Suggestions, which also powers Safari's smart search field."

    Underpinning those results is a new in-house Web crawler called AppleBot. AppleBot allows Apple to index the web and deliver search results without depending on third parties, which could spell trouble for mainstream search engines like Google.

    Earlier on Wednesday, Google acknowledged that it has seen mobile search volume eclipse desktop search volume in 10 countries, including the U.S. and Japan. Because Google counts tablets as desktops, it's likely that the balance is skewed even more toward mobile devices — of which Apple sells nearly 200 million each year.

    There is ample evidence to suggest that Apple plans to continue expanding Spotlight's web search capabilities, and could eventually offer it as a general-purpose search option for iOS and OS X users.

    Apple has bolstered the team that came from Topsy with numerous other hires, beginning to ramp up its search efforts in 2013. The Apple Search group currently has over a dozen job openings for positions ranging from infrastructure operations to data science and location-based search specialists.

    "Apple's new Spotlight Suggestions service provides fast, relevant search results from the Internet in Spotlight and Safari on iOS and OS X," many of the listings read. "The Spotlight Suggestions service is built on massive amount of data crawled from the Internet, sourced from feeds and generated from user interactions with search results."
    By default, Apple users can choose between search providers Google, Yahoo, Bing, and DuckDuckGo.

    Any move by Apple to favor its own search engine for iOS and OS X could — in addition to drawing regulatory scrutiny — be a body blow to Google, which has been the default search engine on both platforms for years.

    Google depends primarily on search advertising for revenue, and is already seeing its share of mobile ad spending eroded by competitors like Facebook. Losing traffic from hundreds of millions of Apple device users in the midst of the mobile revolution could be devastating, and that scenario goes a long way toward explaining Google's strategy with Android.

    From Apple's perspective, the argument in favor of deploying its own in-house search engine is much the same as that for ramping up its own in-house maps.

    Apple's business depends on hardware sales, and its most lucrative product line — the iPhone — is in a market where hardware is quickly becoming commoditized. Software and services are the new battleground, and Apple can't afford to leave major pieces of its platform in the hands of competitors.
    May 29, 2015. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Will Likely Remain The Default Search Engine On Apple iOS Devices [View article]
    Apple's iOS drives 75% of Google's mobile advertising revenue

    By Sam Oliver
    Wednesday, May 27, 2015, 07:49 am PT (10:49 am ET)
    Despite the ever-increasing competition between Google and Apple, iOS remains an exceptionally important advertising platform for the search giant, with one Wall Street estimate attributing as much as three-quarters of Google's mobile ad revenue to users of Apple's devices.


    Of the $11.8 billion in mobile search revenue Google booked in 2014, 75 percent — nearly $9 billion — came from iOS, according to a recent Goldman Sachs analysis cited by the New York Times. Half of that total is chalked up to a deal with Apple that makes Google the default search engine for mobile Safari.

    That arrangement is thought to cost Google between $1 billion and $2 billion each year, and many believe that it will end sooner than later. Apple is rumored to be considering a switch to Yahoo or Bing, and might also enter the market with its own solution.

    Apple is known to be working on a large-scale web search program, led by the team acquired with social analytics firm Topsy in 2013.

    These developments put Google in a precarious position when it comes to mobile search, and losing iOS is a potentially disastrous scenario. Google has already seen mobile search volume eclipse desktop search volume in 10 markets — including the U.S. and Japan — and many new Android-based manufacturers have eschewed Google's own services in favor of other local options.

    This is especially true in mainland China, where most Google offerings are blocked by government firewalls. Without Apple, Google risks being ironically cut out of the market by its own software.
    May 29, 2015. 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Will Likely Remain The Default Search Engine On Apple iOS Devices [View article]
    I disagree. APPLE SEARCH is a reality in the making, based on all the recent hires and job classified Apple has put out for search experts. Apple bought Topsy, a company which Apple is using as a nucleus to build around and out in search. No one knows how long it will take to release the finished product, but one thing is clear --

    APPLE SEARCH's purpose is to replace Google on IOS. Make no mistake, this is the intent and will probably happen if not this year then next.

    Yes it is true Bing and Yahoo are begging Apple to "pick me" , but it is unlikely Apple will do that. Instead, it appears clear they are building a search engine of their own, in combination with a build-out in advertising, maps, Siri and maybe a IBM Watson component. Apple Search will be intended to surpass Google Search and set a new standard for ease and quality, not to mention honesty.

    Tim COok has several times publicly atacked the business model of Google and facebook, the intrusion of privacy and datamining of users to target them with ads and often with scams. Google Search has in fact become riddled with scams. This is why the EU will be finining Googl;e several billion dollas, because Google Search has become entirely self-serving for Google and the results you get are not always what you want, but what Google wants you to click on.

    Also, optimism about Google profiting further on IOS's popularity are unrealistic. Before Steve Jobs died he told his people he wanted Google's head on a pike. Revenge has been delayed, but Tim Cook and Apple know that Google is not their friend, and fully deserves to be cut off at the knees.

    And so, expect that to happen. No one knows when exactly. No known date on the expiration of that date "sometime this year" only. And if Apple does re-up Google Search it will only be for one more year. And probably at a higher price since Google derives 30% of their profit off IOS and a measly 1-2 billion for Apple from that is no longer sufficient.
    May 29, 2015. 01:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job postings saying more than execs at Shake Shack [View news story]
    Job postings do not lie. ANd AAPL's recent plethora of ads for experts in search prove that Apple Search is coming, in order to blow GOOG off IOS and cut that former rival off at the knees.

    Lots of hype coming today from Google's conference without any credible new products or innovations. A dud really.

    AAPL is worth 1.5 trillion
    GOOG is worth 200 billion

    One of the biggest imbalances in the market today. SO when will the tip;ping point be? Maybe the Apple Search release. Expect it within 9 months, maybe in conjunction with IBM's Watson. And certainty Siri. But no privacy intrusions and datamining of users.
    May 29, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google IO Offers Surprisingly Good News For Apple [View article]
    The tipping point must be near, correct. That is a perfect summary. According to the book Tipping Point, human being allow an inbalance or injustice to continue for so long and then - the straw that broke the camel's back occurs - and the tipping point happens.

    We have seen such tipping points recently with SHAK, where the hamburger restaurants started being valued at 42 million apiece. Madness. The same tippping point is coming for facebook with a $450 value for each nearly worthless "active user" (including bots, ad pages and self-activated pages), and for GOOG with its billion Android users who can't make more than 10 billion profit per year for Google.

    Bottomline, the real value of these users is minor. While the real value of an Apple IOS user really is around $1500.

    $1500 x a billion = 1.5 trillion - AAPL's real value

    $100 x a billion = 100 billion, Google's true value

    $10 x a billion = 10 billion, Facebook's true value
    May 29, 2015. 12:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google IO Offers Surprisingly Good News For Apple [View article]
    Wall St also doesn't understand that hundreds of millions of third world poor low income users do not equal profits. What value does a teenager in Angola or Beirut or Venezuela have even for advertisers? Next to no value at all, but these free service companies like, Google and Facebook have to keep spending billions and billions to maintain and improve their free services. And half their users are these third world poor kids. Which Wall St applauds and uses as an excuse to prop up the stocks. So this creates large bubbles.

    I hear Android Pay being released now. That is a second rate copy of Apple Pay without the security and which also datamines its users. A non-starter. If I were a criminal hacker I'd go after Google and Facebook payment systems. Easy pickins.

    And we fear Facebook wants to offer free money transfers, videos and virtual reality. All three things Apple will do much better and charges money for. So long before Apple decides to punish Facebook not only for trying to disrupt their new busineses, but for doing it poorly and dataming its users? Apple deeply disproves of datamining. SO much so that Apple might even start its own scam-free ad-free social network and be able to charge $5 a month for it. Wouldn't surprise me one bit.
    May 29, 2015. 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google IO Offers Surprisingly Good News For Apple [View article]
    Apple will soon make 75 billion profit per year. GOOG will soon make 5-10 billion profit per year. Do the math.
    May 29, 2015. 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google IO Offers Surprisingly Good News For Apple [View article]
    No, GOOG is not a great tech stock, it is an overvalued old pig with lipstick.

    Instead of repeating my long argument proving this, just look at 2 items.

    GOOG has twice the PE of AAPL but is no longer growing.

    When Apple Search is released (and it will be) its purpose it to replace Google Search on IOS. Google makes 30% of its shrinking profits on IOS.

    I would also add that for years now Wall ST has bid up GOOG on bad news while selling AAPl on good news, so the pendulum is in dire need of a swing here.

    AAPL and GOOG need to swap PE's, then we can re-set.

    GOOG has a 50% downside risk from here, pays no dividend, revoked 50% of shareholder voting rights and has massive insider selling.

    Those are not signs of a great stock. Wall ST simply hasn't given up on it yet. but they will.
    May 29, 2015. 11:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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