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  • Why Apple's Slow Response To Disruptive Streaming Music Market Matters [View article]
    Spotify will suffer enormously once APple Beats/ITunes releases its big new platform. for one thing, Apple will pay the most popular musicians more. That means Spotify is F'ed since they are cheap.

    Apple is the king of internet music. Make no mistake. Nobody is going to challenge their throne. And if they do, it will be very temporary.
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Slow Response To Disruptive Streaming Music Market Matters [View article]
    Beats fones are one of the hottest brands in the world, more valuable than all of GoPro yet Apple bought them for a song. No pun intended.

    Remember Beats has a top of the line streaming service which Apple is transforming for them now. And Iovine is the Apple dealmaker in Hollywod now. And Dre is their man to woo top musicians to debut albums on iTunes/Beats. Put it altogether and looks like Apple got a 10 billion dollar company for 70% off.
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Slow Response To Disruptive Streaming Music Market Matters [View article]
    Beats will make more profit next year than Facebook and repay Apple's purchase price within two years. I sat next to the comedian Sinbad on the plane and he was a big early Apple music enthusiast. He told me the history of Beats and why the streaming technology was so valuable and important. Apple got a bargain. And they got Jimmy Iovine and Dr Dre for free, both opf whom are worth billions.

    COmpare to Facebook paying 19 billion for What's Ap which may never make a profit. Then do you really want to question Tim COok's judgement on this obvious winner acquisition? And if you are invested in some smaller streaming service, get out of the stock fast. Apple is going to announce the big Beats upgrade soon.
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's High Time For A High-End Apple TV [View article]
    The integrated addictive IOS ecosystem is indeed Apple's secret weapon. As Icahn says it turns every customer into an annuity. Every year they will buy and upgrade more. And the numbers will grow and grow and grow.

    This is why the stock is so undervalued. One typical Apple customer is now worth at least $1500 in profit to Apple. If you do the math this shows AAPL should be worth over a trillion dollars. But instead, Wall St gives is a below average 13 PE (lower than MSFT and INTC) and a 750 billion market cap which is only 550 billion ex cash and real estate, about what Apple will be earning in the next 9 years.

    The Market treats AAPl with great disrespect. Other big tech stocks get priced to perfection for years, or in FB's, case, decades but never any premium for AAPL. APPL must always prove itself beforehand. The Market forces Apple to show it the money every quarter before they bid it up to the next step. And inbetween quarters they always diss and doubt it. Like right now. Why the 11 point drop in the last six weeks? NO reason. And no talk in the business media about how Chinese New Year just provided Apple with a second Christmas season, profit-wise.

    This underestimation of AAPL creates a nearly constant sharp upside. Another spike upward is likely to happen once again in late April and beyond, and then again and again. YUp two steps, down one, then up two again, etc. Because of this, AAPl is a strong buy even in a jittery market, especially on dips like we saw last week, and should not be sold below 180 unless it is a swing trade on margin or something.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's High Time For A High-End Apple TV [View article]
    If and when Apple makes a premium TV set, it will be a work of art. 2-3 years ago Apple quietly bought a German industrial design firm for Jony Ives and that company has patents on designs for futuristic ultra high quality TV's in the neo Bauhaus type style. Such an Apple TV will not be for everyone anymore than a gold Apple Watch is, but they could sell a few million probably, and if the price is $2000 and their cost is $1000 that is all frosting on the cake, and the piece de resistance for an Apple home and entertainment system.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's High Time For A High-End Apple TV [View article]
    No, Apple TV will be #1 globally within 2 years, and that means it's time to sell or short any company in their way. Especially Netflix.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Phablet Growth Is Bad For Microsoft [View article]
    Nokia is a write-off, a walking dead company.

    Surface is neat all right but for the same price you can get a large iPad and for $100 more a Mac, so why bother with Surface?

    Xbox remains strong, but Apple TV has its sights on Xbox.

    MSFT meanwhile has a higher PE than AAPL and that is ridiculous.
    Sell MSFt and buy AAPL.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Slow Response To Disruptive Streaming Music Market Matters [View article]
    You want to bet against Apple in music be my guest, but with the acquisition of Beats and the re-branding of that streaming service into iTunes or vice versa, I believe you will see Apple dominate music for decades. One thing Apple will be doing is debuting albums, more and more of them. No other company can do this effectively as no one else has Apple reach, muscle, deep-pockets and multitude of deep-pocketed customers. Here are some recent headlines related to this general area. We can expect some big announcement soon from Apple as to how they have realigned Beats and iTunes into one streaming service. and before this announcement I strongly recommend selling or shorting other stream service stocks.

    Found 150 Results for: ‘beats streaming’
    Apple acquires big data analytics firm Acunu
    03/25/2015, 11:17:00 PM, Posted By Mikey Campbell
    Apple appears to have acquired London-based big data analytics firm Acunu, which previously marketed an eponymous real-time analytics platform that boasted high-velocity ingests and compatibility with Cassandra databases.

    Apple reportedly puts Trent Reznor in charge of redesigned Beats Music app, presses forward with iTunes Radio revamp
    03/25/2015, 07:30:00 PM, Posted By AppleInsider Staff
    A report on Wednesday claims Apple is moving forward with a long rumored overhaul of its streaming music services lineup that will incorporate a reworked Beats Music app developed with the help of Nine Inch Nails frontman Trent Reznor, as well as a revamped iTunes Radio service.

    Apple debuts programatic iAd buys on iTunes Radio, 'Customer Match' demographic targeting
    03/19/2015, 07:16:00 PM, Posted By Mikey Campbell
    Apple on Thursday officially started accepting programatic, or automated, iAd buys for iTunes Radio and rolled out a new user targeting feature called Customer Match.

    US streaming music revenues eclipse CD sales for first time, as rebrand of Apple's Beats looms
    03/19/2015, 01:15:26 PM, Posted By Roger Fingas
    Revenue from music streaming is now overshadowing CD sales in the US, according to new data published by the Recording Industry Association of America on Thursday, signalling a sea-change in favor of services like Spotify, Pandora, and Beats Music.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Think Amazon Is OverPriced Do Not Think Of Buying Facebook [View article]
    Wall St is just as wrong about FB at 80-90 as it was about TSLA at 290-300 or conversely about AAPL when it sank three years ago to split adjusted 60. In all three cases analysts have been 100% wrong and had to do mea culpas later, downgrading AAPL at the bottom or upgrading FB, TSLA (and I would add Netflix) at the top.

    Why is this the top for FB? True it may hit 90 with all the irrational enthusiasm and blind faith in Zuckerburg (same as blind faith in Musk a year ago) but FB already has a higher market cap than Disney, GE, COca COla etc, and the truth is --

    FACEBOOK IS MAKING NO PROFITS.

    Wait, you say, they did declare a few billion in profit, didn't they? Yes, but let's be honest, the accounting should include and subtract the 25 billion or so they used for acquisitions. That was real money spent, including a whopping overpayment of 19 billion for What's AP (cool company, not worth half that price)
    and now Is see Zuckerburg building a billion dollar HQ and talking about building out a global payments/mobile money transfer service, which will inquires billions more.

    Plus, all revenues of FB's are from datamining ad targeting, and look at your Facebook page. I see mine is already ad saturated, plis I see more and more of the suggested friends and friend activity are actually bots, auto posting of generic pics itself, suggestions based on your keyword history (also activity by FB not people) and more and more pages which are ads themselves. I also see less and less activity by real people. Don't you?

    FACEBOOK IS LYING ABOUT NUMBER OF ACTIVE USERS and Wall St is GROSSLY OVERVAULING USERS

    FB claims 1.5 billion and 900 million monthly/daily users. That is a lie. They are including a huge percentage of automated activities including tens of millions of phony bot pages and ad pages. They count all such "activity" as being "active" though it is often FB itself which is creating the activity.

    FB is also crammed with poor people, entire generations of kids from poor countries, all kinds of people with no purchasing power at all. They are on FB because it is free and that is the only reason they are there. And many are migrating to other sites too, as always happens with social media trends.

    The real number of active users who are any value to FB's advertisers is probably about 300 million. I am one of them and I try to ignore and delete all ads I see. I also never dare click on come-on ads fearing a scam. I once clicked to play a game and made the mistake of giving my CC number. For a year thereafter FB auto-billed me and it took me an hour on the phone to my CC company to get those charged reversed since I was only interested in playing the game once.
    So beware giving your CC number to FB.

    300 million active users means that Wall St is now valuing them at about $750 apiece. That is absurd. Apple customers really are worth $750 (and a lot more), but FB customers are worth more like $7.50. Think about it and do the math.

    So is FB 1000% overvalued? No, not that much since they do have potential to grow by as much as 100%. But more than 100% growth even in 5 -10 years, doubtful. Not unless they can get people to pay them and so far, no dinero.

    MY fair value of FB is $30. And all it will take to get a 50%+ drop from this stock is a slight slowing of growth, a few glitches, Zuckerburg doing or saying something wacky, or some new competitor emerging.

    I would sell FB Monday morning, be happy you actually made a profit (maybe a huge one) and plow that money into a real secure growth story, AAPL, now at 13 PE compared to FB's 80 PE. APples and orange. Smart investment and reckless flier.
    Mar 28, 2015. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Chen: Guidance Increasingly At Odds With Reality [View article]
    THis remains a company and stock which could go top zero or rise 50%.
    They have about 1.5 billion in cash left and not much coming in, so the lift expectancy is perhaps no more than one year unless they can generate real profits. The Samsung deal is unlikely to help much as Knox is a much criticized platform.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's High Time For A High-End Apple TV [View article]
    Apple is not trying to be a mini Netflix, they are building out to become the dominant platform in premium video delivery globally. Just like with the watch, they took their time and are doing things right, though Netflix and AMazon pushed their hand and forced them to ramp it up sooner than later.

    The HBO exclusive first-run deal is a key first step. This goes with Apple's superior speed and resolution as they have the best video chips and screens in the business. The $60 box discount is simply to clear out inventory of the old boxes, and a new upgraded box will be available later this year at a higher price. Apple does not need to be the cheapest, just the best, and it will be worth the extra money.

    Expect many many new exclusive first-run content deals, on everything but Disney as Netflix paid a lot for that starting in 2016, though Apple will likely take over once that deal expires. Apple can easily afford to outbid the likes of Netflix which essentially has no cash and lives on borrowed money. Netflix cannot succeed without stellar international growth and that is where Apple could stop them. Domestically too though doubtful Apple will get into the DVD business.

    As for a physical TV, my guess is that a Jony Ives signature TV set will come out at a premium price and be absolutely gorgeous in Bauhaus Bang-Olafsson type style, like a work of art of piece of exquisite modern furniture. It will be worth the extra money and it will technically state of the art as well.

    ALl this will be integrated seamlessly together with voice activation and a la carte menus. That is when Apple will be a level above all other services. Yes , more expensive but worth it and like with everything else, the competition can then fight it out in a race to the bottom to see who can be cheapest, because anyone caught in the middle will lose.

    AAPL is a stellar bargain buy now. I have been adding at 123 and under this month and you should too. It is a great price and the 10 point fall has nothing to do with Apple, just an overall jittery market, and fools still putting too much money into overvalued stocks like FB, GOOG, Netflix, etc. Those stocks are ripe for a big fall. AAPl is again setting up to springboard ahead to new highs after April earnings.

    At April earnings we can expect several catalysts; another record breaking profits report, mega growth in CHina and other developing countries, an acceptable profit hit from the strong dollar due to hedging and pricing power that only Apple has, news of Apple Watch pre-orders (sold out?), news of success with APple Pay and IBM enterprise deals. perhaps more Apple TV news and a huge new shareholder cash return program (higher dividend and more buybacks both likely).

    After that I predict this stock will be selling 15-20 points higher, which is a nice pop from today's sold off price.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Sells Ads: It's Not Disruptive In Payments Or E-Commerce [View article]
    Bottomline on money transfers and payments is that smart people only go with providers they trust which have long histories of security and customer service protections. Western Union and Moneygram are what I have used to send money overseas. It is a little pricey since the credit card companies charge a cash advance fee, but at least it is 100% secure. Sending money to developing countries especially is potentially dangerous to theft, so until Facebooks builds a global secure infrastructure complete with customer service reps, I wouldnt risk using them.

    But the main problem FB has is its nose-bleed high overvaluation. It is priced to grow exponentially for 10-15 years, priced to perfection like TSLA was at 290. Its market cap is bigger than Disney and yet FB has very few ways of generating income because very few customers do anything but use FB for free. So it is all about advertising and my Facebook page is already saturated with ads and come-ons, many of which seem like scams.

    I believe Facebook also lies about its user numbers, particularly about its active user numbers. They claim to have 550 million/890 million daily/monthly. While technically this might be true (an active user being any page with activity of any kind on it) when you investigate, you see that Facebook is now filled with ever increasing amounts of bots, scams and ad pages. Plus they send pics and news to pages even when inactive and they may be counting their own activity as a customer's. That "we'll create your own Facebook page for free" TV ad states that "we'll even send you posts in order to get people talking", so it is facebook itself which is juicing these activity numbers. Also click on any eye candy click bait type page photo and you will probably find it is not a real person, but a replicating bot page. I have seen the same gorgeous girl photo on about 7 different pages now and that is the tip of the iceberg. It is happening all over the world.

    Also, it is not about market share but quality of customers. How many of the 400 million (by more realistic number) are people who even have money or credit cards? Third world low income and poor people including children are not valuable customers. So subtract another 150 million and you end up with about 250 million active users of any value, which means they are being valued at $1000 apiece by Wall St. And in reality FB is lucky is these customers generate $20 for them.

    Do the math. FB is grossly overvalued and sooner or later will or should take a big fall similar to TSLA's 33% drop. and TSLA will probably drop even further. INHO FB is next. Very similar to TSLA as a stock.

    Mar 27, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Points A Somewhat Bearish Long Has Wrong About Google [View article]
    Do not forget two big facts: Google bought Motorola for 12 billion and quickly cried defeat and dumped it on Lenovo for stock and a few billion. Since then Motorola and Lenovo (like Samsung) are all having big problems as premium customers almost all want iPhones. So the Motorola loss could be as high as 9 billion, which should be subtracted from their revenues for the past few years, but hasn't been written off yet.

    Apple's contract with Google Search runs out any day now and it remains a big secret as to what Apple will do. If they replace Google Search this stock could drop 20% in one day. If they re-up their deal then Apple is likely to charge more and eat into Google's profits. Either way, it will not be good news for Google.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    Sandisk has one big problem, it is not with Apple and IOS, it is with Samsung and Android, an area with falling profits hemmoraging premium customers en masse to Apple. Not sure what the correct valuation for Sandisk is, but beware, supplying Android phones these days is not necessarily very profitable as those phone makers race to the bottom in terms of pricing and profit margins.

    Apple is just the opposite.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of YouTube Is Good For Google [View article]
    Youtube is an excellent service, I enjoy it often, but news came out recently that Youtube makes no profit. Also, it is likely to encounter massive new competition going forward, mostly from Apple TV, and many of its content providers will want to make more money for their videos. If another platform offers more revenue for providers, they will flee youtube and go elsewhere, and viewers will follow.

    So bottomline, though Youtube is undeniably great, financially it isn't so great, or not great at all.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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