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bjnflicks

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  • For Apple, This Is Not Business As Usual [View article]
    The writer is looking backward. Interesting but not relevant.
    Now AAPL at 11 PE (less than half GOOG) with a huge buyback program which does not seem to have begun yet, a nice dividend, and many huge product announcements coming in the June-October period. They are also almost sure to be making iWatch, a cheaper iPhone for China, which means a China Mobile deal, and there may be a lot more. iBank, iWallet and iRadio are all possible, plus maybe even the top secret Apple TV product. If we get half the above, the stock could double from here. After all, it is already 50% undervalued by any normal metrics. Certainly it deserves at least 60% the PE of GOOG, and if it gets there, that is a huge move in the stock.
    May 21 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Author is heavily biased toward Samsung and ignores some basic facts. As a stock, APPL is super cheap now while GOOG and has become wildly expensive (3 times the PE as AAPL though it makes 3 times as little money). Apple also makes 3 times the profit per unit as Samsung. Samsung can sell all the units they like but they are not making more than $100 profit on anything, usually as lot less. Apple makes about 50% profit per iPhone.

    Samsung ripped off the iPhone to begin with, but main reason AAPL stock is still super cheap (and a stupendous buy) is that they have taken their sweet time announcing new products, because they are careful, very careful, and they invent, they don't copy. Samsung rushes everything to the market and sooner or later they will make a big error and have to do a recall.

    So what is Apple bringing out next? No one knows but it is likely a multiple tiered sophisticated revolutionary NEW THING or they would be spending tens of billions and taking so long to finish it.

    Also there is the buy-back program. 50 billion extra. It certainly was not active last week but when it begins in earnest, it locks a hard rising floor under AAPL stock for a long time. Plus the PE of 10-11 is laughably low and has nothing to do with reality.

    next, author ignores the fact Apple is starting to get very aggressive versus Samsung in Asia, discounting in India etc. and since reports from Asia show 40,000 new employees being hired to build Apple products you'd better believe they are ramping up, not down. Sure Samsung will continue doing well unless they make the eventual big error rushing things out too fast, but there is plenty of money to go around and Apple still rules the top end except in Korea and a few other places where Samsung has been for years before Apple arrived. Notice also Samsung is always advertising. They spend maybe ten times as much on advertising as Apple does, and that affects the bottomline, while admittedly some of their ads have been effective and Apple needs to counter them more aggressively.

    Listen to Tim Cook's words though. He is thinking long term not week by week. That may be frustrating for the time being but in the long run it will the tortoise who stays ahead of the hare, and GOOG is a richly valued stock which still has to prove it can monetize what it has. Their silly Google glasses will never make them a dime, but it is actually used as an excuse by GOOG bulls to buy more at $900. GOOG glasses may be fun, but Apple has far more profitable useful inventions in its vault and likely whatever they are will turn out to be extremely profitable. In the meantime anyone who spends $650 on a Samsung isn't getting the best phone on the market, and any expert knows that.
    May 21 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Apple's retail stores have been ranked as the U.S. retail chain with the highest sales per square foot for a number of years and according to a new report from Asymco’s Horace Dediu, the company also outranks competitors when it comes to revenue per visitor, hitting a record high of $57.60 per visitor in the first quarter of 2013.

    Apple experienced a seven percent growth in visitors during the quarter, leading to an average of $13 million in revenue per Apple Store, which is the highest it has been during a non-holiday quarter.

    * Folks that means Apple is the most successful retailer by far in history. What other retailer gets almost $60 from every person who walks in, on average? Take that Samsung and Google. Samsung has to pay middlemen. Google makes almost no money off Android because they give it away. And they certainly aren't selling any Google glasses, the most ridiculous product I have ever seen unless used in private for highly sophisticated professional purposes. what woman wouldn't get creeped out by a guy with Google glasses. Like those old Xray specs in the 60's that were supposed to see through womens dresses. real cute, Google. but an iWatch or IWallet (both in the works) are much more practical and sellable.
    May 20 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +1.9%) roundup: 1) Brian White cites Chinese 3G growth as a reason for his $888 PT: he points out China's 3G sub base rose 83% Y/Y in April to 293.1M, and is expected to hit 375M-400M by year's end. China Mobile (CHL - previous) had 120M 3G subs; China Unicom (CHU) had 92M, and China Telecom (CHA) 81M. 2) Taiwan's Economic Times reports Apple is testing 1.5" OLED displays for an iWatch, and that "market rumors" indicate Foxconn has received iWatch trial production orders. 3) Digitimes reports MacBook orders are expected to grow 20% Q/Q in Q2, as Apple launches new systems sporting Intel Haswell CPUs at June's WWDC conference. [View news story]
    Rumor mill I assume is truth this time tells us Apple is currently hiring 40,000 new workers in China and the goal is a cheaper smart phone to sell in China and other developing countries. That is something Samsung should be very worried about because Apple will not even bring down its profit margin much on these phones and Samsung is already making only 30% per phone as Apple. if Samsung is forced to put prices, they may come close to selling them at cost,
    May 20 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +1.9%) roundup: 1) Brian White cites Chinese 3G growth as a reason for his $888 PT: he points out China's 3G sub base rose 83% Y/Y in April to 293.1M, and is expected to hit 375M-400M by year's end. China Mobile (CHL - previous) had 120M 3G subs; China Unicom (CHU) had 92M, and China Telecom (CHA) 81M. 2) Taiwan's Economic Times reports Apple is testing 1.5" OLED displays for an iWatch, and that "market rumors" indicate Foxconn has received iWatch trial production orders. 3) Digitimes reports MacBook orders are expected to grow 20% Q/Q in Q2, as Apple launches new systems sporting Intel Haswell CPUs at June's WWDC conference. [View news story]
    AAPL and GOOG and both great dominant companies and there is plenty of room for both. The difference is in the stock price. AAPL is a screaming bargain at 11 PE though it makes a lot more money than Google, and GOOG has a very high PE, above 25 last time I looked. AAPl also pays a nice dividend and has a huge buyback program to put a solid floor under the stock price. GOOG is in danger of what happened to AAPl at 700. One piece of discouraging news and GOOG could take a huge fall. Not so with AAPL. APPL is now priced to have zero growth, zero new products and falling profit margins. So any good or even OK news will send AAPL up. That is once investors get over the fear after the recent 300 drop, a drop which by the way made little sense. APPL was not overvalued at 700. Just a little ahead of itself. A poullback to $600 would have made sense. The fall to $400 made no sense at all. Which provides a great buying opportunity longterm now. Buy hold AAPL will probably get you 50% gains within a year or so,
    May 20 05:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Also I would say "magic" is an inaccurate term to begin with. There is nothing magic about the quality of Apple products. It is because of hard work, vision, perfectionism and style. And some can argue about whether Jobs's death removes some of the vision, time will tell, but Jonny Ives hasn't gone anywhere and neither has the rest of the team and Jobs knew he was dying for years so made sure he put together the best team he could to replace him. Meanwhile, the main qualities of Samsung are speed, aggressiveness and ability to copy others ideas. In the long run, I would bet on Apple, especially on the bottomline where they outdo Samsung 3-1on profit per unit sold,
    May 20 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your iPad, iPhone Are Owned By Google Now [View article]
    Pardon me, but last I heard, Google is the one beholden to Apple to be included on IOS at all. One of the issues and rumors has been whether Apple might jettison Google search altogether and acquire a Yahoo or something to make up for it. Google also pays Apple a fat royalty every year to be allowed to be on IOS so Google is the one renting real estate in the prime neighborhood, not the other way around.

    One must also remember that Google basically gives Android away and that it is also being attacked by Bing etc in ads pointing out that it has privacy issues. The more ad revenue it wants the worse the privacy issues will be. And the Google glasses which one analyst on CNBC actually used as a reason to buy GOOG at three times the PE as AAPL are basically goofy spyware which creeps out women and has even worse privacy issues.

    I own both an iPhone and an Android phone (because the Android was a freebie) so I experience both and the iPhone and IOS are vastly superior, faster and smoother. Maybe the top of the line Galaxies are better but if I were to spend $600, I'd much rather spend $50 more and buy an iPhone. Wouldn't you or anyone? I also see Apple is finally getting really competitive in India as Samsung does its usual massive ad attack. So look for Apple to do the same in China where a cheaper iPhone model is reportedly already being prepped to manufacture with 40,000 new hires in Asian factory areas underway.

    I see the main problem with AAPL stock being that Apple doesn't divulge its secrets or announce anything until it is ready to ship. Not even its employees are told what they are planning. SO literally nobody knows. In the long run this may be the smartest strategy but since October it has created an news vacuum, and into that vacuum swarmed Apple's many enemies including the entire Asian electronics industry which are scared to death Apple could make them obsolete with the next announcements.

    Also Apple is slow and gradual. This buy-back certainly has been slow to ramp up. Because if they had spent any serious amount of cash yet the stock would be $50 higher.
    May 17 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached [View article]
    Remember also, even during the supposed "earnings miss" quarters AAPL had, they generated around 10 billion in new free cashflow, and they make about 400% more money than Google yet GOOG stock is selling for more than twice as much as AAPL relative to earnings. AMZN much more expensive. Even Hewlett Packard was a more expensive stock last month, and MSFT too. AAPL's current 11 PE multiple is ridiculously low. It assumes no growth or new products whatsoever, ever again. So this is a gift for smart stock buyers. Get in low while you can because once the buy-backs start in earnest and new products are announces, the 400's and maybe 500's will be distant memories.
    May 11 12:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached [View article]
    AAPL is much more likely to hit $700 again later this year than ever revisit recent lows. And the only reason AAPL price could fall if is Apple management wants it to fall. Remember the 60 billion buy-back program, almost none of which has yet been spent. That is enough to buy 15% of the company. So if Apple wants it to be above $600 they can do it themselves, but if for some bizarre reason they want the stock lower, they could stop buying. stop issuing any good news and then maybe it might go down 20 points for awhile. But the downside risk on this stock at 11 PE (less than even old tech dinosaur type companies) with all the growth potential and massive cash-generating powers Apple has, is miniscule.

    I was shocked when it went down 3.5 today actually, but figure the Buy-Back Specialists must not work every day. In fact since Monday they don't seem to be working. Maybe they only buy on Mondays. Who knows? But anyone thinking of shorting AAPL is out of their minds. Not only is it like betting against the Fed, but they will also have to pay a 3% dividend. And all AAPL needs is one nice product announcement or mega deal (yes CHina Mobile and cheaper iPhones are coming, they say, plus a lot more) and the stock will rise 100 points even without buy-backs. So this short could consider himself very lucky if he covered after the non-sensical 300 point drop, but he will not get that chance again, especially at these low levels.

    Also the writer who claims Apple margins are falling. Not true except when they liquidate old models or cannibalize themselves here and there. Apple has not lowered prices. It is actually Samsung which has a big profit margin problem. Their high end Galaxies, which cost almost as much as iPhones make only 30% of the profit per unit as an iPhone does. That means Samsung can be the leader in terms of units and still the loser in terms of profits. And expect that to stay that way for a long time. Except for a cheaper iPhone confession (which will also cost less to make) Apple has shown no sign of conceding on pricing except with a few model they are phasing out, and that doesn't count.
    May 10 09:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple You Don't Know [View article]
    All these naysayers about Apple assume they will never announce any new products, make any mega-deals or so anything to accelerate growth. If that is true, Aapple management should be fired for squandering 30 billion is R+D money and Jonny Ives is a dunce and hopeless without Steve Jobs at his side.

    The fact is though that Apple is just very very secretive. And for good reason. Samsung and others copy their products immediately. Even the rumor of an Apple TV sent Samsung releasing its SMart TV. The Galaxy phones are all basically iPhone clones of various sizes. And tablets the same. In fact Windows itself was stolen from Apple a long time ago.

    So be patient folks. Apple didn't seem to do any buying today but they will spent mountains of billions of dollars on stock and drive it steadily back over 550, and then any new product announcements will be icing on the cake and maybe get us back to 700 again. And then everyone will look back on articles like this and wonder how people could be so blind and short-sighted.

    Also, as far as I know, high quality bonds are as good as cash. Better in fact since they are earning a small income.
    May 9 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple You Don't Know [View article]
    Apple could have 145 billion in US cash tomorrow if they were willing to pay US taxes on it all. But instead they borrow against offshore accounts. Smart. Bad for the US government but good for Apple stockholders.
    May 9 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Rally Is The Child Of A Deluded Wall Street [View article]
    The continued recovery rally is indeed sustainable, and all but inevitable. Apple is legally obligated now to purchase back 15% of the company, and they also have major new product announcement and growth-driving deals in the works they will announce later this year. Plus, at 3% dividend now (and still ridiculously low PE multiple, less than half of GOOG) value investors are finally buying, as well as some mega investor types like that Russian billionaire. I see this week's action as the new normal for AAPL. Up 1-2% per day, then pause a day, retrench and start back up again. I see no reason based on the most conservative value investor POV why this stock should not be 100 points higher before any major announcements are made. and Apple has a financial inventive to buy as much as they can before that time because any exciting new product or China Mobile deal or any other major deal will launch the stock back to growth stock status, where it still belongs, though modest growth instead of parabolic. So all told, by the time Apple finishes buying 50 billion worth, we should be back at $700, or even higher depending on product plans.

    As for acquisitions, Apple probably regrets now jumping on Netflix last year but they really don't need to buy anything big. That is, they can really own a piece of Netflix without buying it simply by allying with them, or any other company. They have bought small boutique companies in order to fill in holes like mapping and various copyrights they want to own, but I doubt if they would shell out for some major company. It's just not what they do, and some of those acquisitions can be disasterous. Just ask Hewlett Packard or Time Warner.

    Possibly to expect this year are: iRadio, iWatch, iHomeEntertainment, iBanking, and maybe iHome or iCar, plus a cheaper iPhone for China and developing markets. All those are growth drivers and will re-establish Apple as the #1 innovator, and meanwhile they continue quietly making more money than any company on the planet every single day. Nice time to buy in other words, safe bet IMHO.
    May 8 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Large-Cap Tech Is Breaking Out [View article]
    Apple is not old tech. It is the #1 new tech company in the world now. This short sighted bias from the past six months based on zero real evidence except competition from Samsung in medium regions resulted in a nonsensical 300 plunge, which also offered the generation's great buying opportunity.

    525 price target? Can nobody do math? The 50 billion buyback program alone can lift it to that even if they offer no new products.
    We are talking a 15% buyback, more than any possible stock sellers. Who would sell 50 billion AAPL below 550? No one will or can. So the stock is safe until 550. After that yes they need new growth drivers. But can anyone honestly believe Apple will now have a few mega biggies to announce by September? And then what? Probably 650 and maybe 750. After all, the 705 high was not that rich. The PE multiple was still very modest. And AAPL's growth exceeds many rivals whose stocks sell much much higher. Google for instance. More than twice the PE. And why? Makes no sense, does it? AAPl to 900 then is not impossible.
    May 8 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
    The Apple buy-back program, and/or institutional investors will be buying into any pullbacks for a long time to come. Apple's 50 billion alone could lift this stock 150 points or more. And Apple has an obvious huge inventive to be buying as cheaply as they can, which means now. This stick isn't going back down. It may sawtooth up and down for short periods, but then the buying will resume. Remember, Apple is committed to this immense buying program. It is mandatory now. Their bonds are issued. They are under legal obligations to buy-buy-buy. And they are probably planning to do a great deal of that buying before any new products can be announced, which means it is likely we will see 100+ points before those announcements, which may start next month but should happen at least by September.
    May 7 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
    Anyone selling here is nuts. Apple has only just begun to employ its 50 billion in buybacks, the stock is still wildly undervalued (finally back over 10 PE though its real growth is much higher). and remember the last half of the big 300 point drop was based on non-sensical paranoia, wrong-headed theories and chart breakdowns. Plus, Apple raised its dividend to the 3% level which makes it very attractive to institutional investors. We can expect it to nbot go up every single day, but these pullbacks are buyin g opportunities, not selling opportunities. I am confident it will be 100 points higher by September, plus it pays you to wait. Great buy right here, still very cheap. 390 was ridiculously giveaway cheap. Now it simply cheap. And for the best company on earth which was arguably still undervalued at 700 if the same metrics were used to judge Apple as its competitors. GOOG at 25 PE now? AAPL at 10.5. Does that make any sense? Plus anyone who thinks Apple wont have more blockbuster products later this year has his head in the sand. Jonny Ives has not been frittering away tens of billions in R+D and playing video games up in Cupertino. They are working on big things. Just top secret things. But in the meantime, join the free ride courtesy of Apple's own cash and today is a great day to buy.
    May 7 12:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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