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  • Report: Netflix to enter India in 2016 [View news story]
    Apple TV will be superior to Netflix in all ways , and is not pay per view, unless all you care about is one of Netflix originals, even those might be available. The cost difference will be minor.

    More important to this discussion, Netflix is stretcccching to try and expand to 200+ countries without any existing infrastructure, and no brand name recognition in most of the world. SO when they say they will try and enter India in 2016, well Apple TV will be there first.

    It is as yet unclear whether Apple TV will bounce Netflix or merely supersede it on IOS. Right now Netflix pays Apple 15% of all dollars made over the existing Apple TV boxes. But the next gen Apple TV boxes will be a total transformation, and so whether they remain as an option or not, they will be taken down a notch or two at least on IOS. And remember, the vast majority of premium customers are now on IOS.

    So Netflix really needs to kiss Apple's butt now, and not vice versa, though each could do something for the other.

    In any case, NFLX is such a wildly overvalued stock now and the company is so highly leveraged if you are going to invest in one or the other AAPL is the clear choice. The downside for AAPl now is virtually nil. The downside for NFLX is 50% or more.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft strikes ad deal with AOL/Verizon; Bing to power AOL search [View news story]
    Buy AAPL instead. Whatever MSFT can achieve it will be second fiddle to AAPl by a longshot. Plus believe it or not, AAPl is a cheaper stock.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought American Airlines? Because It's Cheap [View article]
    Super duper cheap buy. AAL and AAPL, you can't lose on these they are so cheap. I guess they were throwing out the babies with the bathwater today. Even airlines which benefit from lower fuel prices. And no fare wars afterall, that was a false alarm.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Supreme Court turns down Google request in Oracle Android dispute [View news story]
    No Apple does not datamine, but it will ramp up iAds and help Madison Ave reach its 700 million affluent free-spending customers. Google and FB will be shut out of that. Maybe others like Amazon too. And Google Search may be no more on IOS. If Apple Search isn't read, then Bing and Spotlight will be the two main engines.

    Wall St has not reacted to this news yet, but once IOS9 is in wide use, Google, Facebook and other dataminers will have little or no place on IOS. And that means they are all at least 50% overvalued. In fact FB is probably 80% overvalued. And expect Apple TV to go after Netflix's users too.

    Bottomline, avoid all these bubble stocks and just buy AAPl. SUper cheap today for no reason. And July earnings (unlike Google's) will be blow-out again.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Messenger Going Non-Social Hints At Enterprise Solution Aspirations [View article]
    Does Zuckerburg's "vision" include a hallucination for how to make a profit on 500 million freeloaders and 100 million bots?

    If so, let's hear it, Zuck.

    In fact, Zuck only really invented one thing in his life, certain functions of Facebook. The original idea he copied from the Vinklevoss twins. Pray tell me anything else he has shown "genius" inventing. I cant think of anything. He didn't invent WA or Instagram either. He bought them. Oculus too.

    So far as I can tell the only thing he ever invented was how to get a 250 billion market cap with 12 billion per year in revenue and no profit. That truly is a miracle. But it will not last long. Just wait for after premium customers are all using IOS9 with datamining blockers and automatic video ad deletion. See how much Madison Ave pays FB then.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Messenger Going Non-Social Hints At Enterprise Solution Aspirations [View article]
    Sounds like they are copying their own company Whatssap to bring people back to FB who left and now only use WA. THis is exactly what it happening with 500 million + young people in the third world. They all use WA now to get free phonecalls, but rarely go to Facebook anymore, and Facebook cannot monetize them on WA so they are trying to lure them "home" so they can datamine them and ad target them. Also yeah maybe a way around the China ban, but the Chinese government doesn't seem to like datamining anymore than Apple does, so with enemies like Apple and the CHinese government, any real growth in revenues is unlikely, no matter how many low income users Facebook can add.

    Also people, stop idololizing Zuckerburg. ANy genius he had was priced in at $40. Elon Musk is arguably a smarter guy and more of a genius and he just had two SpaceX rockets in a row explode in mid air. Even Steve Jobs had flops. So to expect Zuck to be perfect is foolish and until he figures out a way to monetize users without just datamining and ad targeting, he is not going to make any sizeable profits no matter how smart he is.

    Also, I personally know a bunch of third young people who use WA and facebook, and there is simply no way to monetize them, ever. They have no credit cards, bank accounts and live day to day. If they have any extra money, they'd save up to buy an iPhone. The iPhone is what they all want, but most cant afford it so instead they use cheap Android phones and Whatssap and dont bother going back to Facebook much.

    I havebeen arguing about FB's gross overvaluation for months now and I have never heard a single credible scenario for them to make tens of billions in profit. And with Apple kicking datamining off IOS, that makes it three times as difficult, even for Zuckerburg, Musk or Jobs, nobody can solve this puzzle. That is why within 3-12 months I expect to see FB at $50 or lower. And even down there it will be richly valued.

    Also I notice on Whatssap's front page that they promise no advertising. So if that is the case, why the hell did Zuck pay 19 billion for an ap that can't make money? Maybe he is not as smart as you think, especially with other peoples' money.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    Yes FB is hogging a huge amount of bandwidth and also deeply pissing off the telcos by giving away free comms on Whatssap. Do not be surprised if there is a backlash similar to what Apple is doing vs FB and WA.

    If I were Carlos Slim (owner of most Latin American mobile bandwidth) I would flex my muscles and sock it to FB. Not sure how he'd do that, but developing country telcos are being killed by Whatssap and they are bound to do something drastic soon. Used to be your average third world kid spent $10 a week on phone call minutes. Now it's zero. Follow the money and make your own assumptions, but as Apple proved, they do not need FB. FB needs IOS and telco bandwidth.

    Also, if I were Google and saw FB as my main competitor on Android for ads, and since both are now being booted off IOS, I would not consider FB my friend anymore. In fact, GOOG is also an overvalued stock and to merit its 28 PE it needs to at least dominate Android. If they let FB become #1 on ANdroid they deserve a 10 PE. So expect FB-GOOG wars to start as well.

    And do not forget, very few people have any loyalty to Facebook as a social network or messaging service. A few years ago Facebook was a place you could meet potential friends and lovers. Not so much anymore. Most of the sexy girl pages I click on are bots. No one home. That is a new development.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    Oculus is nifty but has tons of competition and is not ready for primetime, same as Google Glass. Zuck did not invent it. To call him a genius is religious overkill. Zuck is extremely smart. Anyone who can code is. But Zuck has a huge problem now he has no way out of, three of them actually.

    1) Apple is banning datamining on IOS
    2) FB's only growth is in third world worthless freeloading users
    3) Zuck has so far no way of getting anyone to pay for anything.

    I would also point to the fact that YHOO also has a billion users, but ex Alibaba shares Wall St values YHOO at zero, worthless. But YHOO actually makes more profit than FB. So why the 250 billion market cap for this bubble boy? Because you think Zuck is a genius and love and alchemist who can turn water into wine or rocks into gold?

    Oculus may or may not ever make a profit, but right now it the only product FB makes that they can actually charge for.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    I just bought more AAPL. In this shaky market, I would avoid all bubble stocks with little or no earnings, and stick with the most solid winners. Amongst those solid winners, AAPl is by far the cheapest best buy.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    The iPhone alone is worth 500 billion. AAPl also has 200 billion in cash, so the entire current market cap is more or less just those two items. But Apple has so much more. In fact, IOS itself is the most valuable asset, with 75-90% of all affluent users on earth, fast growing and capable of all kinds of monetization.

    So when Apple kicks FB off IOS (basically what they are doing) you can see Zuckerburg has a very serious problem.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    FB does not have a 40% growth rate, and it is spending more than it makes. So 12 billion in cash can disappear within a year. What FB does have is stellar growth in the third world only. And who are those njew users? Whatssap free phonecallers, including a majority of poor low or no income young people in Latin American, Africa, Southeast Asia, etc. These are not customers you can monetize and yet Wall St values each at $240 apiece.

    Eveything that goes up must come down, and the harder they do the harder they fall unless the company really is making huge profits growth, like AAPL. FB has no known way of ever making even 10% of what AAPl makes. Maybe not even 2%.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    I am not short FB. I am simply putting out the warning on these bubble stocks, and NFLX and FB are the two worst because over the last 9 months they have been the most popular. But remember, Enron was a very popular high-flier too in its day, and though FB is a different bird, it is possible FB will start to lose money and not make any profit for years. And then what will Wall St do to its 250 billion market cap.

    Fundamentally, FB is worth maybe 25 bucks per share. and Netflix maybe $150. TSLA about $80. So you can see the potential downside is gruesome, and with Apple banning datamining on IOS -- goodbye potential profits, looks like. Why doesn't anyone see that? Zuckerburg is sure aware of the problem. He's no dummy. Which is why he's doing the razzle-dazzle. Hoping to distract everyone from the fact FB makes no profits.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook makes Messenger available to non-Facebook users [View news story]
    You should read the whole article. It also talks about how APple is in the process of banning or severely restricting FB's (and GOOG's) ability to employ their datamining business models on IOS.

    Kind of shocking the market hasn't reacted to this yet, but this move by Apple alone could and probably should cut FB and GOOG's stock prices by 50%. It basically makes it three times as difficult for them to make a profit. Since 70% of people who spend online are on IOS, not Android.

    So remove 70% of FB's more affluent users and what are you left with? 90% poor people, ad bots, people bots, and cheapskate freeloaders. More and more people are switching to IOS and soon they should have 90% of the premium market. If FB is banned from profiting there, and also banned from China, where is the revenue growth? And where is the profit?

    Right now FB is priced to make at least 200 billion in profit over the next decade. In reality, they wil be lucky to make 20 billion in 10 years. Think about it before you fall in love with a high-flier bubble stock.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Apple And Beats Created The Future Of The Music Business? [View article]
    Both Apple TV and Apple Music will become #1 in the world within 3-6 months. Apple TV will be announced soon. And they will be intertwined services. Call it Apple Entertainment. Apple can and probably will become the #1 entertainment delivery service in history. And they dont need to buy any companies to do it, just shell out for certain first-run content rights.

    Bought more AAPL today on the Greek sell-off. Greece has nothing to do with Apple's bottomline and studies have shown that in collapsing economics (like Russia after sanctions and Ruble collapse) it can actually help iPhone and Mac sales as people see their cash as potentially worthless or sliding in value more so they buy top quality sellable electronics to lock in value. There is only one product on earth besides precious metals which is easily converted to cash, and that is an Apple product. Everything else drops steeply in value once it is out the door.

    Jun 29, 2015. 04:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Netflix to enter India in 2016 [View news story]
    NFLX has been spending hand over fist on credit (borrowed money) for two years. SO far so good but major headwinds are about to hit. The international roll-out is very expensive, risky and will encounter fierce competition in major markets. In most countries only the top 2-5% are even able or willing to pay for video delivery subscriptions, and in those places Apple TV (which will come out in the next few months) is apt to be the #1 choice. Also, though Netflix was lucky enough top score two hit shows, dont be surprised if a lot of flops follow. It is very rare in Hollywood to have more than 2 hits in a row. The average is about 9-1 misses vs hits. And Netflix is not getting any discounts from Hollywood agents anymore.

    Worse, NFLX already has a PE in outer space, like 300 or something. That means unless they make a profit soon and a VERY BIG profit, that PE will adjust sharply downward. A moderately conservative investor would look at this stock and give it maybe a 30 PE max. So this is a stock which could get cut in half very quickly after any bad news. Ditto FB, but NFLX is even more expensive.
    Jun 29, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment