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  • Einhorn exits NOK/EMC/MRVL, enters AMAT, defends MU, bashes NFLX [View news story]
    It is APPLE TV that will crush Netflix, within six months or so especially internationally but also here. Unless, Netflix is able to re-negotiate a new deal to be allowed to be offered as an option on Apple TV.

    Funny how Wall St is willing to assume Netflix will take over the entire world without competition, when they give Apple no credit for the upcoming Apple TV at all.

    Here is what we know. Jimmy Iovine has been negotiating first-run content deals for Apple TV for many months. HBO was the big kauhuna which he bagged first. Then Showtime and many others are probably already inked. Local TV is a new idea but it proves difficult to figure out the complexities. Still, it will be done. And here is the bottomline --

    Netflix is in debt. It has no real cash. It can only borrow more. Apple has 200+ billion in cash now and that means they can afford to outbid Netflix every single time, including take their Disney deal once that expires. So what is Netflix left with as exclusives, a few series and made for Netflix films which are very expensive and are likely to include the usual percentage of flops. Netflix has been very lucky, so far, but Einhorn is right. Though this has nothing to do with Micron. Einhorn is right because whatever Apple TV wants to do with Netflix it will. Netflix is not in the driver's seat, Apple is. Just a matter of time.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Earnings Preview: Frustrating Stock, Estimates Still Falling, Needs To Return Capital [View article]
    Earth to Wall ST, GOOG is not a growth stock. It hasn't been one for two years. it is a fading company. Its search revenues are still huge but that is sliding too and IOS9 will pretty much end GOOG's dominance on IOS where all the money is. GOOG hasn't beat an earnings estimate in years. It always misses yet Wall St keeps rewarding it anyway. And Android is a huge out of control giant which Google has lost control over. And Android too is fading fast.

    AAPL's is the only great OS left and the only great profit machine in tech. Everyone else is just trying to give away free or nearly free stuff trying to maintain market share. And those are poor business models in the long run.

    IOS9 starts datamining blocking which wilol get worse and worse for GOOG and FB too. Expect both stocks to be trading about 50% lower within six months.

    PS: When is GOOG going to be honest like MSFT and write off its tremendous losses in Motorola as MSFt did Nokia last week. MSFT wrote off the whole purchase. GOOG needs to do almost the same. An 80% loss on 12 billion = north of 9 billion lost. In other words GOOG lost an entire year's earnings and hasn't told us about it yet. But sometimes soon they will and for the first time post red ink instead of blackl.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:28 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Music Will Be Key For Facebook To Win Back Teenagers [View article]
    Zuckerburg bought Instagram and Whatssap because he needed to to maintain dominance in social media for 1-3 years. But beyond that, maybe even by next year, all three of his sites may sink and slide as new ones appear and take their places. Zuckerburg knows this and knows he can't keep buying overpriced SM sites so instead he's trying to throw everything imaginable into FB to make it a one stop shop for everything on the internet. Problem is, when you try to do everything, you're not the best at anything and if you give it all away for free, you can't make a profit.

    Zuckerburg will be the first business leader in history to have a billion customers and not make any profit from them, or at least almost nothing. Revenues less, profits no. And watch the revenues slide starting this fall. That is when IOS9 comes out and that is when datamining meets its Waterloo.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Music Will Be Key For Facebook To Win Back Teenagers [View article]
    Older people like me dont spend money on Facebook either though I spend an hour a day on it. I love the free service with an emphasis on FREE.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Music Will Be Key For Facebook To Win Back Teenagers [View article]
    Teenagers use Instagram but not Facebook anymore except in the third world. Overseas they all use Whatssap too for free phonecalls, but Whatssap has no ad revenue so it a not-for-profit business basically.

    Teenagers are already migrating to the next big thing though, which an 18 year old told me about last week. Tinder is the new craze. A hook-up site where you can actually get laid fast by someone in your neighborhood. Facebook and Instagram do not have that function. Facebook espedcially is not filled with frustrating clickbait bot people, pages with gorgeous photos but no one home.

    ANd new social sites will keep on coming, it never ends. Which is why social media in general is a terrible investment. But apparently Wall St disagrees, for now anyway.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Music Will Be Key For Facebook To Win Back Teenagers [View article]
    Forget music. Facebook has no way of paying musicians and Apple Music and the others will be dominating 99% of that business. Music, videos, payments, messaging, VR, etc. FB really is trying anything and everything.

    FB seems to be trying to go to war with Google and become the new Youtube, only Youtube has never made a profit and neither can FB. PLus in making an enemy of Google, and already about to be banned by Apple from IOS in terms of datamining and ad targeting, and also banned from China, FB will soon find itself as the cocky wiseassed guy at the frat party who picks a fight with the football team. In other words, Zuckerburg is really asking for it. I would add foreign telcos to that enemies list as Whatssap is giving free phonecalling to hundreds of millions of former paying customers. FB makes no money from these calls, but those telcos are losing bigtime.

    And so do not be surprised if FB finds itself cockblocked on multiple fronts going forward, starting with what Tim Cook is doing with IOS9. Apple will allow Facebook to exist on IOS and have an ap, but that ap can do nothing but provide free services without any advertising revenue to balance out of the cost of providing those services. So FB is basically emasculated on IOS. GOOG too. Which is why this is a real take the money and run stock.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospects For Facebook's Payments Business [View article]
    Facebook is trying to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks, but they still have not solved their #1 problem, how to monetize a billion freeloaders who are used to paying nothing, and half of whom have no ability to pay anything.

    Providing free services is a foolproof way of growing users, but since it is all free, and even free services cost money to manage, methinks that once Apple bans datamining on IOS, which is coming very soon, we will see lots and lots of red ink on FB balance sheets, and Google might go into the red too.

    In other words, dont tell Wall St but the party is over. The punchbowl is still havings its effects though. And for those who dont know what that means it comes from "The Electric Koolaid Acid Test" and it means a psychdelic drug that makes you believe in a reality that cannot exist.

    There is no known way FB can make any sizeable profit, period. But if you want to add your money to the bubble, go ahead. Just dont be the last one to leave the party.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospects For Facebook's Payments Business [View article]
    Dude, payments doesn't have any revenue. it is a brand new free service and very few people have used it. I for one am someone who often sends money overseas using Western Union. They charge $7 but it is 10% safe. To me, that is worth it as you can be sure than Western Union insures every dollar reaches wherever you send it. They have thousands of offices globally but a good customer service phone bank. What does Facebook have, one executive they hired from Pay Pal at a huge salary?

    So I ask you as a supposed expert, if I send $10,000 to a village in Surinam or Borneo, how can Facebook insure my recipient will get every penny? Can you picture the clerk in some small jungle village doling out ten G's and not being tempted to steal it? I can't. Which is why when FB datamined my emails and sent me an ad for their new free payments service I deleted it. I would not trust my money to FB or Google. Maybe Pay Pal. But mostly Western Union and Moneygram.
    Jul 13, 2015. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How GoPro's Execution Looks Strangely Like Facebook's [View article]
    FB has no real income, just revenues and accounting tricks to hide acquisition and other costs to create the illusion of a small profit. Also, as Apple outlaws datamining on IOS, expect a steep drop in FB revenues within two quarters. Google's too.

    If there are any short artists out there, have you ever seen a better short candidate than FB at $90? I've never shorted before but am really tempted to try. Certainly in the fall if the price stays this high. Because IOS9 has features which make FB's datamining impossible and its video ads push non-existent. And IOS is where all the money is.

    Funny how Wall St has ignored this, still propping up GOOG and FB so we did see one GOOG downgrade today. They'll probably take GOOG to the woodshed first, then FB after that. Sometime in the next few months depending on earnings reports. But FB is now something like 80% overvalued. And Netflix isn't far behind. Fitbit looks like it will be next. All companies worth only a fraction of their market caps and their prices based purely on hopium. That is hoping there is never any competition nor any headwinds and everything goes perfectly.
    Jul 13, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Volumes Are Much Better Than Slice Figures Suggest [View article]
    Yes, despite these fact-free naysayers, the Apple Watch not only dominateas the sector but will make more profit every year than the entire market cap of the new Wall ST bubble stock Fitbit. The Watch teardown revealed that the margins could be 70%, so if Apple sells 30 million per year, about 3% of iPhone users buying, and adding in big profits from the $12,000-$14,000 gold models, the Apple Watch might even make as much as all of Google. And 5-10 times what Facebook makes.

    The iPad is a similar story despite all the naysayers about its future. And the Mac is already more profitable than all of Google.
    Jul 13, 2015. 03:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Volumes Are Much Better Than Slice Figures Suggest [View article]
    The Slice survey was a scam similar to the Bendgate video scam, someone paid those guys to basically lie right before some big brokers and hedge funds decided to spread phony negative BS about Apple ("Will Apple's Growth in China End?") and even Jim Kramer got in on the bashing. SO they were able to scalp 5 points off Apple just as Apple went into blackout period, could not buyback or respond and the market was spooked anyway.

    Why pick Apple to attack? Because that's where the money is and so this gang of crooks got away with a lot of money in a 36 hour period, all of them focusing on this bogus Slice survey, while at the same time saying watches dont move the needle. But this is probably the last time they attack AAPl for awhile with so many juicy overvalued stocks just asking to be taken to the woodshed.

    I was not aware Slice only surveyed the US, that is even worse since overseas buyers esp CHinese account for the majority of watch buyers. I spoke to a salesman at Apple Store here and he told me that during the April-late June period when they had no supply, he had literally turned away hundreds of buyers, most of them foreign tourists. And in CHina the watch is hot-hot-hot.

    There is now supply but at the same time there is news that the next batch of watches can operate untethered from iPhones, a big advance. So many people are waiting. Bottomline there is no slowdown and never was, just a justified lull perhaps, followed by many big surges.

    To be clear, Slice did not have access to any Apple data, nor would Apple ever share that data with them or Google or anyone. And yet Slice based it's "survey" on studies of Google search and gmail data, the exact places where most Apple customers are not present. In fact almost all watches were bought on and there is no need to search for it whatsoever.

    Anyway, it was a scam and it's nice to see AAPl back at 125.5 but this stock deserves to be 100 points higher. And maybe once Wall St traders are finished pumping helium into the same old bubble stock balloons we can get back to fundamentals where AAPL is the absolute king of value/growth. PLus in less than two weeks we get earnings which will once again be out of the park homeruns across the board, with the possible exception of the iPad. But even the iPad will join the party once the new pro versions come out this fall in conjunction with the IBM deal.
    Jul 13, 2015. 03:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mac Sales Growth Driven By China In The June Quarter [View article]
    No, MAc sales are up 16% vs a similar fall in PC sales. Obvious what is happening here and has been happening for a few years. Android, Windows etc are slowly dying and IOS is rising unopposed to dominate the world.

    Once Wall St figures this out, we will be 50% higher. SO better to buy now cheap and wait.
    Jul 13, 2015. 12:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mac Sales Growth Driven By China In The June Quarter [View article]
    Let's face it, the stock market is often a game of bubbles and hype and overvaluation and pump and dumps. Of all the bubble stocks we see rising today, who knows how many of them will survive the next 5 years, or how many of the bubble stocks will pop and fall 50% or more.

    One thing common sense does tell us though is that one company on earth rules the most profitable sector on earth and basically has no competition. This is course is Apple. And just because Wall St has been treating AAPL as if it only deserves a PE less than MSFt and INTC and half that of GOOG and 1/9th of FB, we who pay attention know that AAPl deserves a PE of twice what it has now, has the earnings power to make a trillion dollars profit in the next ten years, and therefore should be trading in the 200's, maybe even 300.

    But often, good things take time. The cream doesn't rise to the top immediately, but time is on AAPL holders side. I stand by my target of $150 by January and $180 by the end of 2016. And even then it will be undervalued.

    So good luck to all the bubble boys. If you sell soon maybe you will bag huge profits, but bubbles never last. AAPL's success will last. Big huge difference.
    Jul 13, 2015. 12:41 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines adds flights to Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean [View news story]
    AAL still very very cheap. Buy and hold. Wall St's attack on the airline sector appears to be finished. and was based on false fears in the first place. There is no fare war. Never happened. That was why AAL fell 25%, a false expectation, maybe a deliberate lie.
    Jul 13, 2015. 11:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mac Sales Growth Driven By China In The June Quarter [View article]
    AAPL is the most undervalued major stock in the market and for all the wrong reasons. Wall St has forgotten about two words valuation and profits. Benjamin Graham would say those aere the only two metrics which count, but helium filled bubbbles keep going up all around and AAPl gets largely ignored, but maybe not for long.

    AAPL is now on track to make 90 billion in profit this coming year and more the next year. Within ten years they should surpass a trillion dollars in profits which is almost twice the current market cap ex cash. There is simply no other company or stock in the market like this. What a buy. And after Wall St skipped last quarter's amazing record earnings report, unlikely they will ignore two in a row as the PE keeps slipping down toward single digits. So perhaps July 21 will be the next spike point. Even $134 high is very cheap and analysts are mainly way too low with their target prices.

    Author is right that Apple's global domination has plenty of room for growth. I believe that within 3-4 years IOS will rule the entire mobile and computing world. The only people still using Android and Windows will be third world poor and cheapskates. In fact that is already half true. Apple just surpassed 50% market share in the USA. Expect that to continue to 80-90%, which will take a few years.

    There are several big growth areas not yet discussed on Wall ST. One is search and advertising, the Google business. AAPL has just begun a complete takeover of that sector within IOS. Which ios why it is so absurd that Wall ST keeps bidding up FB because they are like GOOG and they will fall sharply too, starting within a few months. iAd will then gradually become the world leader in internet advertising.

    Another area is entertainment. Again, as Wall St bids up NFLX yet again, Apple TV is coming soon and will gradually take over the#1 spot along with Apple Music to be the world's #1 best entertainment delivery service. A few like Comcast are trying to slow this down but even they will have to throw in with Apple eventually.

    Third is cars and clean battery tech, basically taking on Tesla. And who wins there? Maybe Apple not Tesla. Another bubble stock in Apple's path.

    So you can see the play here. Buy AAPL and short or avoid any company potentially in its path. If you don't believe me, just ask Motorola, Blackberry, Sony, Samsung, Nokia, etc.

    Also the IBM alliance will begin to bear fruit. And one wonders if Watson could end up being the brains behind the new next gen Apple Search. Until then, Google out and probably Bing in. Apple and Microsoft have begun making nice now that it is obvious MSFT cannot compete with them in hardware or software. In fact it is possible Windows will be retired and MSFT will join Apple on IOS.
    Jul 13, 2015. 11:38 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment