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  • Is Facebook Now Payments' Biggest Threat? [View article]
    Sorry but Facebook simply doesn't have the security credibility for risking your money. It is full of scams and bots and has no global infrastructure. Plus they seem to be offering it for free which means it is one more way they wil lose money and make no profits.

    Eearth to Wall St - Facebook makes no profits. They are still nowhere near paying back the 19 billion they spent on What's Ap. They are a great big company with very few ways of making cash, and their ad strategy is saturated, or close to it.

    This ios the most overvalued stock in the world and I would avoid until it plummets to $50 which should happen sometime fairly soon. But right now Wall St has a blind love affair with FB and simply isn't counting the money.
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Dividend Increase On The Way, Why I'm Expecting A Double-Digit Raise [View article]
    Apple has saved IBM. But best advice, sell IBM today and buy AAPl immediately before earnings. Then hold. AAPl will outperform IBm and eventually have a similar dividend. Maybe sooner than later. Apple has more cash than all top ten competitors combined.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could And Should Diversify To The Renewable Energy Business [View article]
    Apple is doing this. And I would not be surprised if a few years from now they challenge Tesla battery factory with a much better financed one of their own. Regardless of oil prices the future is in clean energy. And we should all applaud Apple for leading the way.
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Invest In Original Filmed Content [View article]
    I am a Hollywood expert with 40 years experience and also a big AAPl investor. I recently spoke to my friend who is a former CEO of a studio and former top lawyer in Hollywood. He told me Apple was compelled by aggressive moves by Netflix and Amazon to not wait any longer and get into the premium video delivery business. They started with the crown jewel HBo and nailed it. first run exclusive for Apple TV. They will repeat that as many times as they want to. Remember, every content provider even the World Cup has their price, and HBo is the biggest ion the US with the NFL second.

    Apple will not produce shows,. Producing is a waste of their time. They have more important things to do,. Let film producers produce. Maybe Jimmy Iovine will set up a company to do it, as remember Jimmy has had a deal I think at Paramount for a long time. But now Apple owns him.

    Instead, Apple will provide a revenue stream for premium content makers and providers. And they will eventually dominate the industry. I would sell or short Netflix and buy Apple here. Wall St is so stupid they didn't even react to the HBO deal. They love ripoff companies like Lion's gate but shun Apple's major first entry into exclusive Hollywood content.

    PS: Expect a big hardware and software upgrade to Apple TV coming very soon.
    Apr 20, 2015. 12:45 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: The Transformation Strategy On Full Throttle [View article]
    I agree IBM is a good buy now, because of Apple. But why not just buy AAPL? Even more undervalued and growing like gangbusters. Raising their dividend too.
    Apr 19, 2015. 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    What if Apple were to buy and revamp Yahoo or Firefox, or buy Bing from Microsoft? Or what if that thing "our engineers have been working together on for years" with IBM is a Watson based voice activated search engine? See the biggest risks for Google now?

    If Google Search slides, Google is in big trouble. It is one of the only things they make actual money on, and a large chunk of that is made on IOS.
    Apr 19, 2015. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    GOOG is an overvalued stock. It has missed 7 out of the 8 quarters and is no longer growing. It has also not eaten the 9 billion Motorola loss, nor has it much control over its future on IOS where all the money is.

    28 PE is fine for a fast growing company like GOOG once was. No longer.
    It deserves half that now.

    FB is much worse. With a 72 PE and a market cap bigger than disney. And like GOOG (using the same algorithms) they only know of one way to make money, datamining their customers and ad targeting them. That is not an earnings growth engine anymore. Both are maxed out or close to it.

    Also, this EU mess is serious. Ignore it at your own peril. Microsoft paid 2 billion for a similar suit and with inflation that would be 4 billion today. Intel also payed a huge fine. Goog is next. And don't think Goog will get away with anything better than a settlement and promise to gouge customers less. And by gouge I mean steering them to sites which Google profits from and not others.
    Apr 18, 2015. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    earth to GOOG and FB investors - numbers of users do not = profits.

    AAPL has 90% of profits in premium mobile and only a 30% market share, and both are increasing.

    GOOG has 90% of the lower rung where averyone is cheap and no one wants to pay for anything. In fact 50% of FB and GOOG customers are poor people, no credit cards. And the premium customers are all migrating to Apple and IOS. So profits are flat or falling unless they want to get really obnoxious manipulating search and datamining users.

    Meanwhile, there was no reason for the last 40% rises in both FB and GOOG. Just momentum plays at the time. Both are now priced to perfection 5-10 years into the future. And FB hasn't even paid for What's Ap yet. Google also hasn't written of the 9 billion loss on Motorola. And no dividend or buybacks either, instead, insider selling.l

    AAPL is not even priced to last year's value yet. it is 50% undervalued. With record setting profits every quarter. Huge difference.

    AAPl usually dips before earnings then skyrockets. Perfect op to switch into AAPL. And avoid FB and GOOG until they are 30% lower. Netflix too.
    Thank me later.
    Apr 18, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    Google has already depleted all its ideas for monetizing. Ads galore and e-commerce commissions. And ad revenues are slipping and other departments are losing money. Any idea how expensive it is to run Google without getting paid by your customers?

    Android is a huge=huge piece of mobile real estate, the biggest, but it is a jungle and it is very difficult to make any profit off it. So now Google is wondering if it has to start charging for things like Youtube and the rest. And Facebook is in the same boat. You can only make so much on ads and they have both maxed out or close to it.

    The whole business model for ad-based revenues is just so-so. You don't make the big bucks liker Apple does. And APple is growing fast while Google is not growing anymore. Therefore especially since GOOG has twice the PE of AAPl and a lot of big problems, dump GOOG and buy AAPL if you want to make money. If don don't, fine, then hold the GOOG but this EU hassle is just the first of many they will soon be facing. The biggest is if and when Apple kicks them off IOS as a default search engine.
    Apr 18, 2015. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    Actually many computers it is difficult for the average user to search on anything but Google, so the charges do have merit.

    Maybe I should buy some YHOO, gg
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    Microsoft faced similar problems when they were the monopoly with Windows. Google's monopoly may be slipping this year and may fall apart soon, but the last ten years they have been too much of a monopoly. That is hard to refute. And so, if the EU is serious about flexing its muscles on this issue, Google should try had to negotiate a big fine and pay it. Otherwise they may be forced to break up the monopoly a different way. The fine is the best for the stock price. Wall St forgave Google for its much bigger Motorola loss, they may forgive a 2 billion dollar fine too. Maybe.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Investors Should Not Worry Too Much About The EU Google Shopping Case [View article]
    GOOG has more problems than the EU, but if the EU were to squeeze them out of billions, that would hurt. GOOG is still cash rich, but that luxury is fading. They are losing search and ad revenue. They lost 9 billion on Motorola they pretend didn't happen. They may get booted off IOS's default position in search (huge problem, much worse than the EU) and Apple s devouring their premium customers constantly like a Pac Man. Also, when they can't even make a profit on Youtube, you know their business model has major cracks in its foundation.

    GOOG and FB too need to figure out how to charge people for things? And they should quit mis-using Google Search to mislead users into for-profit sites when the same info might be free somewhere else.

    GOOG currently has been propped up with a 28 PE even though their future growth if questionable. Growth in earnings that is. Overall user numbers may be huge but remember 90% of the people in the world who own cel phones are poor by western standards and have no credit cards. and that is the audience where GOOG and FB make their big user numbers.

    Simple math tells us that an Apple user is probably worth $1500 on average in real short-medium term profits for Apple. What is an average FB or Android user worth? If you say $10, maybe you are correct, but let's be generous and say $40. OK, even then FBs users are valued at 1000% their real value and GOOG's probably the same since they both use the same data-mining ad targetd algorithms to sell Madison Ave.

    IMHO - GOOG is worth a 15 PE or about $300. FB is worth $40. And AAPL is worth $200.

    I also believe these imbalances will be corrected fairly soon. GOOG may be the first to get hit just as soon as Apple decides who their default search engine will be, and right now that is top secret. All we know if they must renew the contract, re-negotiate it cancel it. And simply renewing it is unlikely given Apple's power-plus leverage position of "controlling" the 90% most affluent customers on earth.

    PS: Watch for more insider selling on GOOG. There has already been quite a bit.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Street Applauds Disastrous Financial Results [View article]
    Netflix is the #2 most overvalued stock after FB, and for awhile there was good reason to give each a rch premium, betting that they will dominate for at least five years, and in FB's case to earn anywhere near their sky-high valuation.

    Both stocks might be OK for awhile, even go up, but it is only a matter of time before competition, headwinds, regulations, errors, cash problems or whatever brings these two high-fliers down to earth.

    FB bellows a $40 per share but Zuckerburg was "smart" to overpay for What's AP because now I see young people using WA instead of FB. But what is the next trend for the socially active young generation, maybe a next thing FB does not own? Also aren't mobile and internet ads pretty much a saturated market? If not then it's close.

    Netflix is lucky to even be alive since the Hollywood powers do not like them and resent their big piece of the distribution pie. So in order to get future exclusive content deals Netflix will get no discounts, it must overpay. And with what cash? This company has heavy debt and heavy exposure to any headwinds.

    IMHO the biggest problem for Netflix is that Apple TV, after a two year stall, has begun ramping up with Jimmy Iovine dealmaking in Hollywood, Disney in their corner and all the cash in the world to outbid Netflix or anyone else. The HBO deal should have sent AAPL stock up 10 points but wrongly Wall St ignored it. Be aware, Apple TV will in two years time have 100 different HBO first-run type deals, maybe including the NFL, World Cup , NBA etc. Why? Because they and only they can afford to.

    So who on earth is going to shell out more than $10 a month for Netflix in two years time? Very few people, and for $120 a year you cannot pay for all the necessary content. Plus if the GOP gets their way and crushes net neutrality --- and they want to and are trying to as we speak.

    The timing is tricky, but FB and Netflix re two of the best shorts in the market, certainly if they go any higher I see no risk at least medium term.
    Apr 17, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Samsung Problem [View article]
    True, the one with the big problem is Samsung. Despite the Galaxy launch hype (much of it probably paid for by Samsung) expect Galaxies to fail unless the prices are slashed by $200 in which case Samsung makes little or no profit.

    Nomura told Samsung to stop trying to compete with Apple a year ago. Nomura was right.

    and the 700,000 leftover Gear watches are sitting in crates somewhere waitng to be recycled.
    Apr 17, 2015. 10:36 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Samsung Problem [View article]
    Samsung's divisions are separate but yes Apple wants out of needing Samsung or any other companies building its components. That is why they are moving on all fronts to make their needed hardware in house. They may also soon be replacing Google Search on IOS and other measures designed to not benefit companies who have tried o compete with them, especially Samsung and Google.
    Apr 17, 2015. 10:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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