mikesa69's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/267825/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/148166/comments?source=feed#comment-583773 583773
Wilson, before he died, acknowledged that he had done his country a huge disservice by creating the fed. I agree, but that was a bit late to have regrets, no?

As to results, the monetary policy of the fed interferes with free market forces and has been the direct cause of every single boom and bust cycle since it was created including the great depression, and its latest spawn now in the new millenium.]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 16:39:03 -0400
Wilson, before he died, acknowledged that he had done his country a huge disservice by creating the fed. I agree, but that was a bit late to have regrets, no?

As to results, the monetary policy of the fed interferes with free market forces and has been the direct cause of every single boom and bust cycle since it was created including the great depression, and its latest spawn now in the new millenium.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148166/comments?source=feed#comment-583764 583764

You sure are ignorant. The fed has two official mandates: control inflation, and maintain price stability. Monetary policy is a tool, not a goal.

As for the unofficial mandates, well, what else would you expect w/ trillions of dollars of OPM at your disposal and no accountability? No wonder our dollar has lost 96% of its value since the creation of the fed in 1913.

BTW, the fed is an illicit entity according to our Constitution and should not only be audited, but should be abolished altogether.]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 16:25:41 -0400

You sure are ignorant. The fed has two official mandates: control inflation, and maintain price stability. Monetary policy is a tool, not a goal.

As for the unofficial mandates, well, what else would you expect w/ trillions of dollars of OPM at your disposal and no accountability? No wonder our dollar has lost 96% of its value since the creation of the fed in 1913.

BTW, the fed is an illicit entity according to our Constitution and should not only be audited, but should be abolished altogether.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148011/comments?source=feed#comment-582365 582365
Gee, Soros and his cohorts in the CFR and the Bilderberg Group fuck us all, then they profit from it. Go figure. It's easy to know where to put your dollars when you're the one yanking the chain of the puppets in office.

I'm still surprised at how ignorant most of my fellow Americans are about what's truly happening in this world.

www.youtube.com/watch?...]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:34:31 -0400
Gee, Soros and his cohorts in the CFR and the Bilderberg Group fuck us all, then they profit from it. Go figure. It's easy to know where to put your dollars when you're the one yanking the chain of the puppets in office.

I'm still surprised at how ignorant most of my fellow Americans are about what's truly happening in this world.

www.youtube.com/watch?...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147260/comments?source=feed#comment-577654 577654
Really, though, it'd be very interesting to see what happened if Americans et al pulled their funds en masse from C, BAC, GS, etc.
Any bets on whether that'd finally give all the TARP babies something to really cry about? Or, would these 'too big to...', no wait, 'already failed' banks just find clever accounting tricks to obfuscate all the dough flying out their doors?

I'd like to know who originally mentioned the ability of the SW to be used for unfair manipulation; was Facciponti just regurgitating a sloppy GS slip of the tongue, or was he applying some creative license? And isn't 'unfair manipulation' redundant anyway?]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:19:58 -0400
Really, though, it'd be very interesting to see what happened if Americans et al pulled their funds en masse from C, BAC, GS, etc.
Any bets on whether that'd finally give all the TARP babies something to really cry about? Or, would these 'too big to...', no wait, 'already failed' banks just find clever accounting tricks to obfuscate all the dough flying out their doors?

I'd like to know who originally mentioned the ability of the SW to be used for unfair manipulation; was Facciponti just regurgitating a sloppy GS slip of the tongue, or was he applying some creative license? And isn't 'unfair manipulation' redundant anyway?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147347/comments?source=feed#comment-577078 577078 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 10:59:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145927/comments?source=feed#comment-567320 567320
Disclosure: I voted for Ron Paul


On Jun 29 09:34 AM wg wrote:

> Trust me. When you hear somebody start out by saying stuff like "both
> major parties are poison to the U.S." and there is really no major
> difference between them, etc. etc....
>
> That somebody voted for Obama. Just so you'll know where he's coming
> from.]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:49:01 -0400
Disclosure: I voted for Ron Paul


On Jun 29 09:34 AM wg wrote:

> Trust me. When you hear somebody start out by saying stuff like "both
> major parties are poison to the U.S." and there is really no major
> difference between them, etc. etc....
>
> That somebody voted for Obama. Just so you'll know where he's coming
> from.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145752/comments?source=feed#comment-567196 567196
On Jun 29 12:11 AM venture exchange wrote:
> Prepare yourself for the inevitable global cooling.


We badly need term limits on our "representatives". Maximum terms of 6 years, with re-election cycles every 2 years. Wow, think about all the positive ramifications of such a thing... What a wonderful world we'd live in!

]]> Mon, 29 Jun 2009 13:34:52 -0400
On Jun 29 12:11 AM venture exchange wrote:
> Prepare yourself for the inevitable global cooling.


We badly need term limits on our "representatives". Maximum terms of 6 years, with re-election cycles every 2 years. Wow, think about all the positive ramifications of such a thing... What a wonderful world we'd live in!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145440/comments?source=feed#comment-564263 564263
This is not the correct forum for koolaid-drinking morons. Please go peddle your wares at your nearest MSM outlet instead.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:35:22 -0400
This is not the correct forum for koolaid-drinking morons. Please go peddle your wares at your nearest MSM outlet instead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144246/comments?source=feed#comment-555644 555644
So wow, the stock market is up. Yippie!

And inventories have bounced from seriously depressed levels. Hoo boy!

And consumer confidence is the highest it's been in a while. (Boy those consumers sure are stupid... they believed the 'stress' test results!)

Oh, and money supply has been elevated to the stratosphere. (Hey, it's always good to have more money, right???)

Yep, I'd say we're looking at new all-time highs in the indices within the next 6 months. Come on Dow 15,000! Hell, skip that. We might as well just call it Dow 20,000 by December '09. While we're at it, why not Dow 25,000???

NOT! This is all fantasy and farce.

Wake up America!!! Our politicians are in the process of floating the last bit of credit they have in an effort to reinflate a burst bubble one last time. When this thing finally crashes, the can-kickers will wish they would have at least tried to endure some short-term pain in order to reduce the impact of the inevitable.

We need term limits on CONgress and the SINate or we'll never get out from the corruption and cronyism.
]]> Sat, 20 Jun 2009 20:25:00 -0400
So wow, the stock market is up. Yippie!

And inventories have bounced from seriously depressed levels. Hoo boy!

And consumer confidence is the highest it's been in a while. (Boy those consumers sure are stupid... they believed the 'stress' test results!)

Oh, and money supply has been elevated to the stratosphere. (Hey, it's always good to have more money, right???)

Yep, I'd say we're looking at new all-time highs in the indices within the next 6 months. Come on Dow 15,000! Hell, skip that. We might as well just call it Dow 20,000 by December '09. While we're at it, why not Dow 25,000???

NOT! This is all fantasy and farce.

Wake up America!!! Our politicians are in the process of floating the last bit of credit they have in an effort to reinflate a burst bubble one last time. When this thing finally crashes, the can-kickers will wish they would have at least tried to endure some short-term pain in order to reduce the impact of the inevitable.

We need term limits on CONgress and the SINate or we'll never get out from the corruption and cronyism.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143140/comments?source=feed#comment-547603 547603
Are these CNBC economists? ]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 16:10:00 -0400
Are these CNBC economists? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141771/comments?source=feed#comment-537364 537364 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:09:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141653/comments?source=feed#comment-535003 535003
Actually now over 20 at 20.5%. See www.shadowstats.com/
]]> Sat, 06 Jun 2009 14:26:33 -0400
Actually now over 20 at 20.5%. See www.shadowstats.com/
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141306/comments?source=feed#comment-532020 532020 You two just don't get it, do you. It's not the dems or the republicans, it's big government PERIOD. Bush was bad. The usurper is much, much worse.

To quote an anonymous source: "I think Americans are getting exactly what they deserve.. bad citizens deserve bad government.. enjoy the fruits of your apathy.. you couldn't possibly have done any less to earn them..."

Think I'm wrong? Still think it's all about which party in the two party system is "right" and which is "wrong"? That's what they want you to argue about, you friggin' sheep. Go read your Constitution, then watch what's being done to our Country by BOTH sides of the aisle. Term limits for CONgress would be a very nice change for our Country.]]> Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:14:03 -0400 You two just don't get it, do you. It's not the dems or the republicans, it's big government PERIOD. Bush was bad. The usurper is much, much worse.

To quote an anonymous source: "I think Americans are getting exactly what they deserve.. bad citizens deserve bad government.. enjoy the fruits of your apathy.. you couldn't possibly have done any less to earn them..."

Think I'm wrong? Still think it's all about which party in the two party system is "right" and which is "wrong"? That's what they want you to argue about, you friggin' sheep. Go read your Constitution, then watch what's being done to our Country by BOTH sides of the aisle. Term limits for CONgress would be a very nice change for our Country.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138329/comments?source=feed#comment-509753 509753 Tue, 19 May 2009 11:53:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136765/comments?source=feed#comment-497810 497810 Sun, 10 May 2009 13:04:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136722/comments?source=feed#comment-497796 497796
Hey, pass me some koolaid so I can be in a drunken stupor like you.]]> Sun, 10 May 2009 12:55:04 -0400
Hey, pass me some koolaid so I can be in a drunken stupor like you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136665/comments?source=feed#comment-497766 497766
Since you seem to be fond of quotes, here's one for you: "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." ~ Arthur Schopenhauer

I suggest you start buying guns, food and ammo. And don't forget toilet paper.]]> Sun, 10 May 2009 12:36:29 -0400
Since you seem to be fond of quotes, here's one for you: "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." ~ Arthur Schopenhauer

I suggest you start buying guns, food and ammo. And don't forget toilet paper.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136681/comments?source=feed#comment-497736 497736
Ok, whatever, you just keep telling yourself that this 'minor recession' is over if that's what helps you sleep at night. So you're a buyer at these lofty heights? Pardon me for a moment.... Hahahahahahahaha! I'll be more than happy to take your money when this unnatural pump & dump comes to its logical conclusion. I give all you perma-bulls a week at most before the glass begins to shatter anew.

In case you hadn't noticed, regardless of clever accounting tricks there is still more than $423 Trillion in off-balance toxic waste (which last time I checked exceeded the GDP of the entire planet), the taxpayer is about to get the most royal screwing in history courtesy of the PPIP, the boomers have just recently started retiring and CONgress will finally have to start paying its unfunded liabilities rather than spending the annual surplus, our fiat monetary system has finally been exposed for the sham that it is (what's the historical failure rate for fiat currencies again? Oh yeah, I remember now, it's 100%!), China has stopped buying our debt, our own government has become the buyer of last resort for its own debt (never a good sign), the taxpayer is tapped out and cannot be further raped and pillaged in any substantial way to provide the amounts our banana republic would need just to stay afloat, and that's assuming NO new spending. Doesn't anybody listen to the CBO?

Hmmm, let's see, what else could possibly put a nail in this overbought and relentless bounce? Have you bothered to check out commercial real estate trends lately? How about consumer credit default rates? Maybe you've not seen the long-term housing chart indexed to inflation going back to the 1890's, and the exponential acceleration that occurred earlier this decade? If not then I suppose you are also unaware that we're only a little more than a third of the way down towards natural reversion-to-mean levels. Real estate bottom my foot! How about the Alt-A and Prime recast schedules, are you familiar with those? If everything's so rosy, then why have yields started to rise so quickly again despite the governments best efforts to contain them? And oh yeah, I almost forgot, now oil has started heading back to over $100/bbl again, and once we get a breakout w/ successful retest at $100 support, that'll likely signify the final time we'll ever see double digit oil prices ever again, no matter how much deleveraging-caused deflation occurs before the inevitable hyperinflation kicks in. And what's this I've been hearing about Chrysler and GM lately? B.K.'s??? Say it ain't so! I thought the government had their backs? How the fools in this administration propose to appease both the auto makers and the union pigs simultaneously still escapes me... oh wait, I forgot their modus operandum: screw the taxpayer. I suppose you're not familiar with the auto makers' failed business models (massive unfunded liabilities, astronomical labor rates, etc.), or the scope of the contagion that their supplier chains and distribution channels represent? Perhaps you think there'll be no collateral damage at all? Then again, my government tells me that the Chrysler BK will be 'surgical' and over in 60 days. Pardon me again... Hahahahahahahaha! Oh to be so ignorant! Such bliss.

Fundamentals aside, May OX is Friday, we're into major resistance after unsustainable percentage gains, and money flows and mkt volume have been largely driven by the retail johnny-come-lately types for more than a month now. I would have liked to have seen more than a single touch of the 20dMA on the way up but it never came. Now the market will have to pay a very steep price for such 'irrational exuberance'. Do we fail the March lows on the first re-test? Highly unlikely due to the manipulation. But PPT and Tax-cheatin' Timmy can only blow so much hot air into this rapidly deflating balloon for a short while longer. S&P will most likely see sub-500 before this time next year, after at most a quick touch of 1000 this week. This bear market rally, while truly impressive, is not the start of a new bull just because you see a slight downtick in the (government-supplied) job numbers. Once the March lows fail, we'll look back and see that this 2-month run produced a 'generational high', to loosely distort Kass' take on mkt action.

So if you truly still believe the bull case after simply digesting these cooked employment numbers, and that the recent market bounce from extremely oversold levels has been anything more than a carefully orchestrated final grab by the same perpetual robbers before the inevitable finally occurs, well then like I said I'll be happy to take the other side of that trade. I sure wish the koolaid could dumb me down too, 'cause then I could be so happy-happy joy-joy like you and all the other cheerleaders who've been more than happy to give obama-the-Usurper a 68% approval rating. What a fuckin' joke.]]> Sun, 10 May 2009 12:12:06 -0400
Ok, whatever, you just keep telling yourself that this 'minor recession' is over if that's what helps you sleep at night. So you're a buyer at these lofty heights? Pardon me for a moment.... Hahahahahahahaha! I'll be more than happy to take your money when this unnatural pump & dump comes to its logical conclusion. I give all you perma-bulls a week at most before the glass begins to shatter anew.

In case you hadn't noticed, regardless of clever accounting tricks there is still more than $423 Trillion in off-balance toxic waste (which last time I checked exceeded the GDP of the entire planet), the taxpayer is about to get the most royal screwing in history courtesy of the PPIP, the boomers have just recently started retiring and CONgress will finally have to start paying its unfunded liabilities rather than spending the annual surplus, our fiat monetary system has finally been exposed for the sham that it is (what's the historical failure rate for fiat currencies again? Oh yeah, I remember now, it's 100%!), China has stopped buying our debt, our own government has become the buyer of last resort for its own debt (never a good sign), the taxpayer is tapped out and cannot be further raped and pillaged in any substantial way to provide the amounts our banana republic would need just to stay afloat, and that's assuming NO new spending. Doesn't anybody listen to the CBO?

Hmmm, let's see, what else could possibly put a nail in this overbought and relentless bounce? Have you bothered to check out commercial real estate trends lately? How about consumer credit default rates? Maybe you've not seen the long-term housing chart indexed to inflation going back to the 1890's, and the exponential acceleration that occurred earlier this decade? If not then I suppose you are also unaware that we're only a little more than a third of the way down towards natural reversion-to-mean levels. Real estate bottom my foot! How about the Alt-A and Prime recast schedules, are you familiar with those? If everything's so rosy, then why have yields started to rise so quickly again despite the governments best efforts to contain them? And oh yeah, I almost forgot, now oil has started heading back to over $100/bbl again, and once we get a breakout w/ successful retest at $100 support, that'll likely signify the final time we'll ever see double digit oil prices ever again, no matter how much deleveraging-caused deflation occurs before the inevitable hyperinflation kicks in. And what's this I've been hearing about Chrysler and GM lately? B.K.'s??? Say it ain't so! I thought the government had their backs? How the fools in this administration propose to appease both the auto makers and the union pigs simultaneously still escapes me... oh wait, I forgot their modus operandum: screw the taxpayer. I suppose you're not familiar with the auto makers' failed business models (massive unfunded liabilities, astronomical labor rates, etc.), or the scope of the contagion that their supplier chains and distribution channels represent? Perhaps you think there'll be no collateral damage at all? Then again, my government tells me that the Chrysler BK will be 'surgical' and over in 60 days. Pardon me again... Hahahahahahahaha! Oh to be so ignorant! Such bliss.

Fundamentals aside, May OX is Friday, we're into major resistance after unsustainable percentage gains, and money flows and mkt volume have been largely driven by the retail johnny-come-lately types for more than a month now. I would have liked to have seen more than a single touch of the 20dMA on the way up but it never came. Now the market will have to pay a very steep price for such 'irrational exuberance'. Do we fail the March lows on the first re-test? Highly unlikely due to the manipulation. But PPT and Tax-cheatin' Timmy can only blow so much hot air into this rapidly deflating balloon for a short while longer. S&P will most likely see sub-500 before this time next year, after at most a quick touch of 1000 this week. This bear market rally, while truly impressive, is not the start of a new bull just because you see a slight downtick in the (government-supplied) job numbers. Once the March lows fail, we'll look back and see that this 2-month run produced a 'generational high', to loosely distort Kass' take on mkt action.

So if you truly still believe the bull case after simply digesting these cooked employment numbers, and that the recent market bounce from extremely oversold levels has been anything more than a carefully orchestrated final grab by the same perpetual robbers before the inevitable finally occurs, well then like I said I'll be happy to take the other side of that trade. I sure wish the koolaid could dumb me down too, 'cause then I could be so happy-happy joy-joy like you and all the other cheerleaders who've been more than happy to give obama-the-Usurper a 68% approval rating. What a fuckin' joke.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136413/comments?source=feed#comment-496924 496924
Not sure if you're referring to the blanks in the chart for these lines, but if so those would be indicative of the fact that the longer time periods had not yet occurred as of Dec. 2007, not that there were no loans to be had. If you meant something else then I'm afraid I didn't get your point. Overall a great article, though, and thanks for the insight.]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 14:52:22 -0400
Not sure if you're referring to the blanks in the chart for these lines, but if so those would be indicative of the fact that the longer time periods had not yet occurred as of Dec. 2007, not that there were no loans to be had. If you meant something else then I'm afraid I didn't get your point. Overall a great article, though, and thanks for the insight.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131609/comments?source=feed#comment-468854 468854
People are indeed forgetting about the coming commercial RE meltdown, and flat out ignorant of consumer credit (both in actual default rates and as a percent of income).

One last looming item I'll mention in favor of continued financial meltdown would be the jump in Alt-A resets and Prime resets that is just now starting to push its way through the system. Everyone has been almost exclusively focusing on the Subprime resets, but I rarely hear the other forms of ARM resets mentioned. While the amount of subprime resets has mostly worked its way through the system, the amount of the others yet to reset is just now starting to ramp up in a long drive that will accelerate through the end of 2011 before finally dropping off.

In case I'm not being articulate enough, check out the charts at www.businessinsider.co...

I too agree that we'll fail the March lows, but as Richard stated, I feel we aren't going to get there as soon as this Heiko Seibel analyst has proposed. After a brief pullback of no more than 10-23%, I think we'll continue to ride the recent wave of optimism for the C leg of an ABC-up structure before finally turning down for a scary drop to retest the lows. Potential timing based on historical trends would suggest a top as early as May options ex.

I also totally disagree with anyone's theory that we'll be out of this mess entirely within a year or two. There are too many macro-forces working in harmony against America's continued (unsustainable) economic prosperity for us to pull out of this mess anytime soon. And the policies of this administration (and the last, for that matter) are only going to aggravate the situation, not help it.

That's my $0.0008. (Note: My "2 cents" have been adjusted by -96% to reflect the loss in value of the US dollar since 1913 when the fed was created.)]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 16:59:32 -0400
People are indeed forgetting about the coming commercial RE meltdown, and flat out ignorant of consumer credit (both in actual default rates and as a percent of income).

One last looming item I'll mention in favor of continued financial meltdown would be the jump in Alt-A resets and Prime resets that is just now starting to push its way through the system. Everyone has been almost exclusively focusing on the Subprime resets, but I rarely hear the other forms of ARM resets mentioned. While the amount of subprime resets has mostly worked its way through the system, the amount of the others yet to reset is just now starting to ramp up in a long drive that will accelerate through the end of 2011 before finally dropping off.

In case I'm not being articulate enough, check out the charts at www.businessinsider.co...

I too agree that we'll fail the March lows, but as Richard stated, I feel we aren't going to get there as soon as this Heiko Seibel analyst has proposed. After a brief pullback of no more than 10-23%, I think we'll continue to ride the recent wave of optimism for the C leg of an ABC-up structure before finally turning down for a scary drop to retest the lows. Potential timing based on historical trends would suggest a top as early as May options ex.

I also totally disagree with anyone's theory that we'll be out of this mess entirely within a year or two. There are too many macro-forces working in harmony against America's continued (unsustainable) economic prosperity for us to pull out of this mess anytime soon. And the policies of this administration (and the last, for that matter) are only going to aggravate the situation, not help it.

That's my $0.0008. (Note: My "2 cents" have been adjusted by -96% to reflect the loss in value of the US dollar since 1913 when the fed was created.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131658/comments?source=feed#comment-468829 468829
At least you're honest in that your moniker belies your blatent tendecies toward cheerleading.]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 16:14:13 -0400
At least you're honest in that your moniker belies your blatent tendecies toward cheerleading.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130973/comments?source=feed#comment-468756 468756 Mr. Kass has called a "generational low", so he does not buy into any further downside below the March lows as you suggest. Like you though, I wouldn't have minded seeing Mr. Kass' commentary added to this list.

I happen to disagree with his call however... I think we're going much lower, just not yet. In fact I think we'll have another upleg after a brief pullback, but one that will only last until May OX (options expiration). THEN we can start talking about retesting the March lows sometime over the summer and heading into the end of Sept. or first part of Oct. Again, just my opinion, and I'll certainly change it as market moves evolve.


On Apr 15 10:05 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> Another good playbook is Doug Kass's analogy of Nasdaq 2000-2009
> to DJIA 1929-1938. Under this scenario, market is likely to retest
> and hold the March '09 low, then make an attempt at 200 day moving
> average, eventually overshooting it by year-end to get the bulls
> all excited. Unfortunately, the story doesn't end well the next three
> years (2010-2012) to correspond to 1939-1941, and the market finally
> bottoms in 2013 (like 1942). Since Doug Kass called the March '09
> bottom within days, we should at least add him to the list of forecastors
> to pay attention to!]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 15:02:34 -0400 Mr. Kass has called a "generational low", so he does not buy into any further downside below the March lows as you suggest. Like you though, I wouldn't have minded seeing Mr. Kass' commentary added to this list.

I happen to disagree with his call however... I think we're going much lower, just not yet. In fact I think we'll have another upleg after a brief pullback, but one that will only last until May OX (options expiration). THEN we can start talking about retesting the March lows sometime over the summer and heading into the end of Sept. or first part of Oct. Again, just my opinion, and I'll certainly change it as market moves evolve.


On Apr 15 10:05 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> Another good playbook is Doug Kass's analogy of Nasdaq 2000-2009
> to DJIA 1929-1938. Under this scenario, market is likely to retest
> and hold the March '09 low, then make an attempt at 200 day moving
> average, eventually overshooting it by year-end to get the bulls
> all excited. Unfortunately, the story doesn't end well the next three
> years (2010-2012) to correspond to 1939-1941, and the market finally
> bottoms in 2013 (like 1942). Since Doug Kass called the March '09
> bottom within days, we should at least add him to the list of forecastors
> to pay attention to!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131548/comments?source=feed#comment-468740 468740
I'm interested in hearing people's thoughts on amount of retracement if we do get a pullback in both financials and the market as a whole. Does the recent strength imply minimal pullback? Or, since we're so overbought and it seems many retailers are now well-committed, should we expect a deeper pullback?

I'm also interested to hear from those more educated than I what the impact on the Quants would be once some downside momentum started to appear. Would they thankfully take their partial profits / lessened losses, or would they be more likely to keep driving things down, down, down? What would a typical quant model suggest the appropriate action to be? Also, what's the typical timeframe for quants' intermediate-term - is it more like hours, or more like days? ]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 14:48:36 -0400
I'm interested in hearing people's thoughts on amount of retracement if we do get a pullback in both financials and the market as a whole. Does the recent strength imply minimal pullback? Or, since we're so overbought and it seems many retailers are now well-committed, should we expect a deeper pullback?

I'm also interested to hear from those more educated than I what the impact on the Quants would be once some downside momentum started to appear. Would they thankfully take their partial profits / lessened losses, or would they be more likely to keep driving things down, down, down? What would a typical quant model suggest the appropriate action to be? Also, what's the typical timeframe for quants' intermediate-term - is it more like hours, or more like days? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131492/comments?source=feed#comment-467722 467722 Sat, 18 Apr 2009 14:11:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131474/comments?source=feed#comment-467699 467699 Hoping that America's economy recovers and being realistic with your money can and should be mutually exclusive. Saddling your investment strategy with your hopes is just plain stupid.

I indeed hope that America recovers. But over the past year I've been net short in a majority of my trades. That's the reality, and it doesn't make me hate America. In fact I'm a true patriot.

When the bafoons in CONgress and the usurper obama stop f&&king with everything, then maybe our mutual hope for America's greatness will actually have some corellation to proper investing theses. Until then, have fun with those "safe" bonds of yours. Yeah, like there's never any manipulation in those securities. Ha!
]]> Sat, 18 Apr 2009 13:36:06 -0400 Hoping that America's economy recovers and being realistic with your money can and should be mutually exclusive. Saddling your investment strategy with your hopes is just plain stupid.

I indeed hope that America recovers. But over the past year I've been net short in a majority of my trades. That's the reality, and it doesn't make me hate America. In fact I'm a true patriot.

When the bafoons in CONgress and the usurper obama stop f&&king with everything, then maybe our mutual hope for America's greatness will actually have some corellation to proper investing theses. Until then, have fun with those "safe" bonds of yours. Yeah, like there's never any manipulation in those securities. Ha!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131056/comments?source=feed#comment-465381 465381
I know that changing MTM rules didn't really change anything on the banks' books, but apparently the average Joe doesn't.

I know that GS 'lost' many of their losses by changing their fiscal year to a calendar year, such that December never got reported. Actual should have been +1.24/sh vs. +1.64 consensus, not the outlandish +3.39 as reported.

Of course, I would actually be very leery of any bank that could NOT show a 'profit' after receiving such large infusions of cash.

I know that reinstituting a form of the uptick rule will have no material effect on liquidity or traders' ability to correctly assess bearish potential and sell accordingly, but it could be a nice 'feel good' response to keep the markets juiced once re-instituted. Any bets on the timing of a potential announcement on this?

I know the PPT has no qualms about wasting the People's dollars. Repeatedly.

And here's my very favorite observation lately... I know that if each bank is allowed to offer toxic assets at 85 cents to their 'competitor' and at the same time only bid 30 cents for their competitor's garbage, with the taxpayer as the dupe who'll cover the spread, that in the end the banks actually WILL be stronger. Unfortunately the economy will not be so lucky.

But most of all I know that the Wall Street elite are in bed with our government, and especially our government's string-pullers. When I say Wall Street, I'm not talking about traders like myself or most of you reading this, for I am in no way elite; but rather the Wall Street that has not had a single CEO feel threatened in their job security like Mr. Waggoner was.

So I'm slowly learning my lesson that the banks have the administration's ear, and that no matter how badly our overall economy gets screwed, their backs are covered and they will not go down with the ship. At least not at first. Ain't cronyism grand! Sign me up for a few thousand shares of FAS asap. Outta be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Until the barrel simply crumbles away, that is.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:06:31 -0400
I know that changing MTM rules didn't really change anything on the banks' books, but apparently the average Joe doesn't.

I know that GS 'lost' many of their losses by changing their fiscal year to a calendar year, such that December never got reported. Actual should have been +1.24/sh vs. +1.64 consensus, not the outlandish +3.39 as reported.

Of course, I would actually be very leery of any bank that could NOT show a 'profit' after receiving such large infusions of cash.

I know that reinstituting a form of the uptick rule will have no material effect on liquidity or traders' ability to correctly assess bearish potential and sell accordingly, but it could be a nice 'feel good' response to keep the markets juiced once re-instituted. Any bets on the timing of a potential announcement on this?

I know the PPT has no qualms about wasting the People's dollars. Repeatedly.

And here's my very favorite observation lately... I know that if each bank is allowed to offer toxic assets at 85 cents to their 'competitor' and at the same time only bid 30 cents for their competitor's garbage, with the taxpayer as the dupe who'll cover the spread, that in the end the banks actually WILL be stronger. Unfortunately the economy will not be so lucky.

But most of all I know that the Wall Street elite are in bed with our government, and especially our government's string-pullers. When I say Wall Street, I'm not talking about traders like myself or most of you reading this, for I am in no way elite; but rather the Wall Street that has not had a single CEO feel threatened in their job security like Mr. Waggoner was.

So I'm slowly learning my lesson that the banks have the administration's ear, and that no matter how badly our overall economy gets screwed, their backs are covered and they will not go down with the ship. At least not at first. Ain't cronyism grand! Sign me up for a few thousand shares of FAS asap. Outta be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Until the barrel simply crumbles away, that is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131164/comments?source=feed#comment-465248 465248
I think you are being too kind to give him any additional leeway after the crap he's already burdened us with. Financially, as well as in loss of freedom. Agreed Bush was terrible, but obama has pushed the same big brother - big government agenda into hyperdrive.


On Apr 16 11:47 AM Jimbo wrote:

> As a voter who pulled the lever for McCain as the lesser evil, I
> think it is too early to judge the prophet Obama's performance. I
> certainly hope he is not surprised to find how very difficult it
> is to function as President of the U.S. I see our entire political
> system as broken with both major parties sharing equal culpability.
> The situation will not get better until we have term limits on Congress
> and criminal penalties for former members of Congress to lobby. Pelosi's
> "culture of Corruption" lives on.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:57:19 -0400
I think you are being too kind to give him any additional leeway after the crap he's already burdened us with. Financially, as well as in loss of freedom. Agreed Bush was terrible, but obama has pushed the same big brother - big government agenda into hyperdrive.


On Apr 16 11:47 AM Jimbo wrote:

> As a voter who pulled the lever for McCain as the lesser evil, I
> think it is too early to judge the prophet Obama's performance. I
> certainly hope he is not surprised to find how very difficult it
> is to function as President of the U.S. I see our entire political
> system as broken with both major parties sharing equal culpability.
> The situation will not get better until we have term limits on Congress
> and criminal penalties for former members of Congress to lobby. Pelosi's
> "culture of Corruption" lives on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131164/comments?source=feed#comment-465220 465220
The primary advantage of politicians' use of spin is to fool people like you. The reason they keep doing it is because it apparently works. Unlike you, who probably do not work.


On Apr 16 11:26 AM KK wrote:

> A President finally speaks clearly to a topic and you call it spin.
> Please explain the logic behind your comment.
> ]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:48:09 -0400
The primary advantage of politicians' use of spin is to fool people like you. The reason they keep doing it is because it apparently works. Unlike you, who probably do not work.


On Apr 16 11:26 AM KK wrote:

> A President finally speaks clearly to a topic and you call it spin.
> Please explain the logic behind your comment.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128336/comments?source=feed#comment-444384 444384
A bit confused over your statement "Is a planned New World Order complete with a New World Currency backed by gold and silver all a part of the puppet show unfolding before our eyes?". No worries, we're on the same page w/ the NWO and puppet regime in Washington. I just assumed that the elite wanted a new world currency that was still fiat in nature, that's all.

I note that a weak dollar in general tends to help multi-national companies (on a relative basis) due to favorable exchange rates upon coversion of foreign sales back to the dollar.

A weak dollar should also give us one last good chance to lighten our personal debt loads over the next 5-10 years, as inflation indeed helps debtors.

I too believe we'll see another pullback in Gold before it starts to skyrocket, giving us one more good chance to get in. Declining credit on a massive scale is what's currently keeping inflation in check, but the tables will soon tip the other way.]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 16:17:23 -0400
A bit confused over your statement "Is a planned New World Order complete with a New World Currency backed by gold and silver all a part of the puppet show unfolding before our eyes?". No worries, we're on the same page w/ the NWO and puppet regime in Washington. I just assumed that the elite wanted a new world currency that was still fiat in nature, that's all.

I note that a weak dollar in general tends to help multi-national companies (on a relative basis) due to favorable exchange rates upon coversion of foreign sales back to the dollar.

A weak dollar should also give us one last good chance to lighten our personal debt loads over the next 5-10 years, as inflation indeed helps debtors.

I too believe we'll see another pullback in Gold before it starts to skyrocket, giving us one more good chance to get in. Declining credit on a massive scale is what's currently keeping inflation in check, but the tables will soon tip the other way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127029/comments?source=feed#comment-434831 434831
And: "...until foreigners start withdrawing some of the trillions of dollars they have invested in government and Treasury debts."

Voting with dollars is indeed voting. Thanks for the article.]]> Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:48:39 -0400
And: "...until foreigners start withdrawing some of the trillions of dollars they have invested in government and Treasury debts."

Voting with dollars is indeed voting. Thanks for the article.]]>