mikesa69

Bear or Bull Market? The Gurus Weigh in

RiskReturnOptimizer:
Mr. Kass has called a "generational low", so he does not buy into any further downside below the March lows as you suggest. Like you though, I wouldn't have minded seeing Mr. Kass' commentary added to this list.

I happen to disagree with his call however... I think we're going much lower, just not yet. In fact I think we'll have another upleg after a brief pullback, but one that will only last until May OX (options expiration). THEN we can start talking about retesting the March lows sometime over the summer and heading into the end of Sept. or first part of Oct. Again, just my opinion, and I'll certainly change it as market moves evolve.


On Apr 15 10:05 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> Another good playbook is Doug Kass's analogy of Nasdaq 2000-2009
> to DJIA 1929-1938. Under this scenario, market is likely to retest
> and hold the March '09 low, then make an attempt at 200 day moving
> average, eventually overshooting it by year-end to get the bulls
> all excited. Unfortunately, the story doesn't end well the next three
> years (2010-2012) to correspond to 1939-1941, and the market finally
> bottoms in 2013 (like 1942). Since Doug Kass called the March '09
> bottom within days, we should at least add him to the list of forecastors
> to pay attention to!