mikesa69

Paul Volcker: The Voice in the Wilderness

No, I won't trust you. I did not vote for the usurper, yet I also share the viewpoint that both major parties are poison. You're conclusion from Mark's statement is erroneous and illogical.

Disclosure: I voted for Ron Paul


On Jun 29 09:34 AM wg wrote:

> Trust me. When you hear somebody start out by saying stuff like "both
> major parties are poison to the U.S." and there is really no major
> difference between them, etc. etc....
>
> That somebody voted for Obama. Just so you'll know where he's coming
> from.

Show Me the Recovery

I wonder if that Livingston Survey looked any different last year. For that matter, I bet it'll look pretty much the same next year as well. All the numbers just magically get much better by 2010. Talk about kicking the can...

Are these CNBC economists?

Poisoning the Green Shoots

Very fine article w/ good insight. The crux of your argument could have been summed up in just two of your words: "bullshit spin", with which I wholeheartedly agree. The rest is just supporting info that, unfortunately, the koolaid drinkers will continue to ignore. This house of cards is getting less stable by the day.

ECRI: Recession Likely to End This Summer

Yes, the money supply and the stock market constituents of WLI are up significantly, and inventories have been recently replenished somewhat after becoming extremely 'oversold'. Yippie! Let the good times roll again!

Hey, pass me some koolaid so I can be in a drunken stupor like you.

Bear or Bull Market? The Gurus Weigh in

RiskReturnOptimizer:
Mr. Kass has called a "generational low", so he does not buy into any further downside below the March lows as you suggest. Like you though, I wouldn't have minded seeing Mr. Kass' commentary added to this list.

I happen to disagree with his call however... I think we're going much lower, just not yet. In fact I think we'll have another upleg after a brief pullback, but one that will only last until May OX (options expiration). THEN we can start talking about retesting the March lows sometime over the summer and heading into the end of Sept. or first part of Oct. Again, just my opinion, and I'll certainly change it as market moves evolve.


On Apr 15 10:05 PM RiskReturnOptimizer wrote:

> Another good playbook is Doug Kass's analogy of Nasdaq 2000-2009
> to DJIA 1929-1938. Under this scenario, market is likely to retest
> and hold the March '09 low, then make an attempt at 200 day moving
> average, eventually overshooting it by year-end to get the bulls
> all excited. Unfortunately, the story doesn't end well the next three
> years (2010-2012) to correspond to 1939-1941, and the market finally
> bottoms in 2013 (like 1942). Since Doug Kass called the March '09
> bottom within days, we should at least add him to the list of forecastors
> to pay attention to!

CNBC Declares a Quick Recovery - Could the Pundits Be Wrong Again?

A major reason for the disconnect between stock market and actual economic performance will continue to be directly due to political intervention. No matter how much we (accurately) see the fundamental case to be bearish, this may not be the correct strategy in a market that may very well keep defying gravity for some time to come. Let me offer a few observations...

I know that changing MTM rules didn't really change anything on the banks' books, but apparently the average Joe doesn't.

I know that GS 'lost' many of their losses by changing their fiscal year to a calendar year, such that December never got reported. Actual should have been +1.24/sh vs. +1.64 consensus, not the outlandish +3.39 as reported.

Of course, I would actually be very leery of any bank that could NOT show a 'profit' after receiving such large infusions of cash.

I know that reinstituting a form of the uptick rule will have no material effect on liquidity or traders' ability to correctly assess bearish potential and sell accordingly, but it could be a nice 'feel good' response to keep the markets juiced once re-instituted. Any bets on the timing of a potential announcement on this?

I know the PPT has no qualms about wasting the People's dollars. Repeatedly.

And here's my very favorite observation lately... I know that if each bank is allowed to offer toxic assets at 85 cents to their 'competitor' and at the same time only bid 30 cents for their competitor's garbage, with the taxpayer as the dupe who'll cover the spread, that in the end the banks actually WILL be stronger. Unfortunately the economy will not be so lucky.

But most of all I know that the Wall Street elite are in bed with our government, and especially our government's string-pullers. When I say Wall Street, I'm not talking about traders like myself or most of you reading this, for I am in no way elite; but rather the Wall Street that has not had a single CEO feel threatened in their job security like Mr. Waggoner was.

So I'm slowly learning my lesson that the banks have the administration's ear, and that no matter how badly our overall economy gets screwed, their backs are covered and they will not go down with the ship. At least not at first. Ain't cronyism grand! Sign me up for a few thousand shares of FAS asap. Outta be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Until the barrel simply crumbles away, that is.

Profiting in a Political Economy

Re: "However, foreigners do not vote."

And: "...until foreigners start withdrawing some of the trillions of dollars they have invested in government and Treasury debts."

Voting with dollars is indeed voting. Thanks for the article.