OilyGasMiner's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/268081/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/106544-why-gold-will-decline-more-than-the-markets?source=feed#comment-309405 309405
As the above point mentioned
"At any point in time Gold’s value needs to be thought about in the context of its then current and prospective purchasing power, having regard to prevailing and prospective macro-economic conditions."

What is the context though? an ailing economy, country at war, rising debt levels, rising unemployment, lack of liquidity, lack of consumer confidence. THE LIST GOES ON! I do agree that there is a possibility that Gold may fall more than the market, however this will be for a short period of time, with a massive spike occurring in gold for a major correction. ]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 19:35:14 -0500
As the above point mentioned
"At any point in time Gold’s value needs to be thought about in the context of its then current and prospective purchasing power, having regard to prevailing and prospective macro-economic conditions."

What is the context though? an ailing economy, country at war, rising debt levels, rising unemployment, lack of liquidity, lack of consumer confidence. THE LIST GOES ON! I do agree that there is a possibility that Gold may fall more than the market, however this will be for a short period of time, with a massive spike occurring in gold for a major correction. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106319-precious-metals-will-depose-cash-from-its-temporary-throne?source=feed#comment-308083 308083
I fully agree that this action coupled with the US debt increasing each day, will only result in furthe devaluation of the US. Dollar.

We must recall that the massive sell offs in hedge funds aren't usually voluntary and fund managers are being FORCED to sell because many investors believe that they are forced to sell. For example in Canada, investors with RRIFs, must pay taxes on at least $10,000 of their investment. However this value was determined at the start of the year, and with some portfolio's down by over 50%. They are now actually paying taxes on 20% of their current portfolio. Due to the lack of transparent investment advice, we will continue to sell these massive sell offs take its toll on already undervalued equities. It is only a matter of months IMO before we see a commodity correction.

And as we know "Concurrently, the U.S. Government runs large operating deficits in circumstances where its National Debt approximated $9.6 trillion at July 31, 2008, up from $9 trillion at December 31, 2007 and $6.2 trillion at December 31, 2006."
Quote Source: www.stockresearchporta.../

The question is with the money supply increasing, debt increasing, unemployment increasing, foreclosures increasing, consumer confidence on the decline. How worse can things really get? ]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:36:53 -0500
I fully agree that this action coupled with the US debt increasing each day, will only result in furthe devaluation of the US. Dollar.

We must recall that the massive sell offs in hedge funds aren't usually voluntary and fund managers are being FORCED to sell because many investors believe that they are forced to sell. For example in Canada, investors with RRIFs, must pay taxes on at least $10,000 of their investment. However this value was determined at the start of the year, and with some portfolio's down by over 50%. They are now actually paying taxes on 20% of their current portfolio. Due to the lack of transparent investment advice, we will continue to sell these massive sell offs take its toll on already undervalued equities. It is only a matter of months IMO before we see a commodity correction.

And as we know "Concurrently, the U.S. Government runs large operating deficits in circumstances where its National Debt approximated $9.6 trillion at July 31, 2008, up from $9 trillion at December 31, 2007 and $6.2 trillion at December 31, 2006."
Quote Source: www.stockresearchporta.../

The question is with the money supply increasing, debt increasing, unemployment increasing, foreclosures increasing, consumer confidence on the decline. How worse can things really get? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106251-peak-oil-cars-and-depressions?source=feed#comment-307916 307916 stockresearchportal.co....

Cheers,

OilyGasMiner]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 11:04:35 -0500 stockresearchportal.co....

Cheers,

OilyGasMiner]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106033-friday-market-preview-was-dow-8-000-the-bottom?source=feed#comment-306140 306140
This is glued together by the confidence of investors and consumers alike.

Perhaps once the president elect begins to instigate his policies we might see a more permanent turnaround.

Until then I believe we will continue to see pops and drops, we are too emotional at this point in time. ]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:52:54 -0500
This is glued together by the confidence of investors and consumers alike.

Perhaps once the president elect begins to instigate his policies we might see a more permanent turnaround.

Until then I believe we will continue to see pops and drops, we are too emotional at this point in time. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106059-is-hyperinflation-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-306085 306085 Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:19:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=feed#comment-305542 305542
I'm sorry, give them an ultimatum. REDUCE or be eliminated. Period.

And as for Pauslon's comments where he says “To adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem, which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us”


This is more properly read as:

We can’t figure out what caused the serious structural cracks to develop so fast in that huge wall over there so let’s throw as much sh_t against it as we can and hope some of it sticks and stops the wall from falling. Then let’s analyze the components of the sh_t that stuck and see if we have enough of that kind of sh_t left to fill the rest of the cracks and make the wall stable again. Only by determining the kind of sh_t we need by trial and error will we ever figure out why the wall cracked in the first place!”

Laugh it up everyone. We need humor during these times.

Full Read: www.stockresearchporta.../
]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 16:47:04 -0500
I'm sorry, give them an ultimatum. REDUCE or be eliminated. Period.

And as for Pauslon's comments where he says “To adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem, which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us”


This is more properly read as:

We can’t figure out what caused the serious structural cracks to develop so fast in that huge wall over there so let’s throw as much sh_t against it as we can and hope some of it sticks and stops the wall from falling. Then let’s analyze the components of the sh_t that stuck and see if we have enough of that kind of sh_t left to fill the rest of the cracks and make the wall stable again. Only by determining the kind of sh_t we need by trial and error will we ever figure out why the wall cracked in the first place!”

Laugh it up everyone. We need humor during these times.

Full Read: www.stockresearchporta.../
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105800-paulson-s-shocking-change-of-heart?source=feed#comment-305480 305480
which translates to: “We can’t figure out what caused the serious structural cracks to develop so fast in that huge wall over there so let’s throw as much sh_t against it as we can and hope some of it sticks and stops the wall from falling. Then let’s analyze the components of the sh_t that stuck and see if we have enough of that kind of sh_t left to fill the rest of the cracks and make the wall stable again. Only by determining the kind of sh_t we need by trial and error will we ever figure out why the wall cracked in the first place!”

We all need a chuckle during these times.

Source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 15:53:24 -0500
which translates to: “We can’t figure out what caused the serious structural cracks to develop so fast in that huge wall over there so let’s throw as much sh_t against it as we can and hope some of it sticks and stops the wall from falling. Then let’s analyze the components of the sh_t that stuck and see if we have enough of that kind of sh_t left to fill the rest of the cracks and make the wall stable again. Only by determining the kind of sh_t we need by trial and error will we ever figure out why the wall cracked in the first place!”

We all need a chuckle during these times.

Source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105901-30-year-bond-auction-sorry-paulson-not-a-good-result?source=feed#comment-305477 305477
As Paulson said: “To adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem, which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us”.

In translation: “We can’t figure out what caused the serious structural cracks to develop so fast in that huge wall over there so let’s throw as much sh_t against it as we can and hope some of it sticks and stops the wall from falling. Then let’s analyze the components of the sh_t that stuck and see if we have enough of that kind of sh_t left to fill the rest of the cracks and make the wall stable again. Only by determining the kind of sh_t we need by trial and error will we ever figure out why the wall cracked in the first place!” lol

Source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 15:51:44 -0500
As Paulson said: “To adequately reform our system, we must make sure we fully understand the nature of the problem, which will not be possible until we are confident it is behind us”.

In translation: “We can’t figure out what caused the serious structural cracks to develop so fast in that huge wall over there so let’s throw as much sh_t against it as we can and hope some of it sticks and stops the wall from falling. Then let’s analyze the components of the sh_t that stuck and see if we have enough of that kind of sh_t left to fill the rest of the cracks and make the wall stable again. Only by determining the kind of sh_t we need by trial and error will we ever figure out why the wall cracked in the first place!” lol

Source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105360-oil-breaks-below-60?source=feed#comment-303283 303283 www.stockresearchporta... that some of you might find helpful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying to buy today, tomorrow, or next week. The key issue is that no one can foresee the bottom. No technical analyst or equity analyst for that matter. We are living in unprecedented times, and let’s face it, the majority of our market analysts ARE YOUNG. What does that mean? It means they have no experience of situations of this magnitude. We ought to get back to our history books and review the past trends during the depression and get ourselves properly educated to brace the stormy markets ahead. We must be patient, and we must be knowledgeable. Be prepared.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 15:35:37 -0500 www.stockresearchporta... that some of you might find helpful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying to buy today, tomorrow, or next week. The key issue is that no one can foresee the bottom. No technical analyst or equity analyst for that matter. We are living in unprecedented times, and let’s face it, the majority of our market analysts ARE YOUNG. What does that mean? It means they have no experience of situations of this magnitude. We ought to get back to our history books and review the past trends during the depression and get ourselves properly educated to brace the stormy markets ahead. We must be patient, and we must be knowledgeable. Be prepared.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105066-china-stimulus-package-boosts-commodities-hurts-our-wallets?source=feed#comment-302068 302068
I can't imagine how the companies that Walmart made reduce prices must feel.

But all in all, if we check which countries owns the US DEBT we'll see that China is on top of that list.

One little currency trade could be devastating.

IMO China has the US by its stronghold.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 12:40:38 -0500
I can't imagine how the companies that Walmart made reduce prices must feel.

But all in all, if we check which countries owns the US DEBT we'll see that China is on top of that list.

One little currency trade could be devastating.

IMO China has the US by its stronghold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105031-gold-protect-yourself-from-future-inflation?source=feed#comment-302062 302062
OBBBAAAAAMAAA where are you?]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 12:36:47 -0500
OBBBAAAAAMAAA where are you?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103463-ubs-lowers-gold-expectations-again?source=feed#comment-297425 297425
I read the first post of a gold valuation series today, thought I'd share for other gold diggers out there ;)

www.stockresearchporta.../

OilyGasMiner]]> Mon, 03 Nov 2008 13:21:08 -0500
I read the first post of a gold valuation series today, thought I'd share for other gold diggers out there ;)

www.stockresearchporta.../

OilyGasMiner]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102153-opec-s-pity-party-portents-for-the-global-economy?source=feed#comment-291737 291737
the regulatory body IS run by both criminals and idiots. Fundamentals have NOT changed, only the "perception" of fundamentals. Which is trickled down through the reg. agencies.

Speculation is simply a premium on top of fundamentals. But when the reversed occurs, we see manic conditions as existed in our current economy. The question is. How do we capitalize on the current market?]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:46:15 -0400
the regulatory body IS run by both criminals and idiots. Fundamentals have NOT changed, only the "perception" of fundamentals. Which is trickled down through the reg. agencies.

Speculation is simply a premium on top of fundamentals. But when the reversed occurs, we see manic conditions as existed in our current economy. The question is. How do we capitalize on the current market?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102122-80-years-history-of-brutal-gold-stock-corrections-how-does-today-compare?source=feed#comment-291712 291712
Good history lesson. I think this is supplemental information used by many value investors during times similar to our current economy. The reason for the drastic recovery percentages..is due to the fact that fundamentals hold true, and the market always realizes the proper valuation over the course of time.

Have confidence, and invest patiently. ]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 14:19:03 -0400
Good history lesson. I think this is supplemental information used by many value investors during times similar to our current economy. The reason for the drastic recovery percentages..is due to the fact that fundamentals hold true, and the market always realizes the proper valuation over the course of time.

Have confidence, and invest patiently. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101394-response-to-bloomberg-s-gold-may-pay-only-in-case-of-maximum-despair?source=feed#comment-288733 288733
Gold is not just a speculative play, but is also a sound investment, I hate the fact that their is this huge misconception that you MUST be rich to afford it, and I'm glad you've highlighted that. Gold rises during times of uncertainty. But as other investments posses a lag period, where it takes time for prices to truly reflect its trued value. And in essence one could say that at these levels the yellow bricks are considered undervalued. no?

I read that "Finally, it was reported last week (again I have not been able to verify this) that the European Central Banks sold 7.6 tons of gold in the week ended October 10. If this is true, that ought to have put downward pressure on the gold price"

This might also indicate the sagging prices in the market. But, a word of warning for investors, be ready to pounce, because once gold starts to take off, you'll be saying. Shoulda, Woulda, and Couldas. ]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:20:43 -0400
Gold is not just a speculative play, but is also a sound investment, I hate the fact that their is this huge misconception that you MUST be rich to afford it, and I'm glad you've highlighted that. Gold rises during times of uncertainty. But as other investments posses a lag period, where it takes time for prices to truly reflect its trued value. And in essence one could say that at these levels the yellow bricks are considered undervalued. no?

I read that "Finally, it was reported last week (again I have not been able to verify this) that the European Central Banks sold 7.6 tons of gold in the week ended October 10. If this is true, that ought to have put downward pressure on the gold price"

This might also indicate the sagging prices in the market. But, a word of warning for investors, be ready to pounce, because once gold starts to take off, you'll be saying. Shoulda, Woulda, and Couldas. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101393-gold-etf-reaches-one-dollar-per-tonne?source=feed#comment-288712 288712 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:12:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101383-why-gold-will-rocket?source=feed#comment-288702 288702

"it was reported last week (again I have not been able to verify this) that the European Central Banks sold 7.6 tons of gold (about U.S.$250 million)

in the week ended October 10. If this is true, that ought to have put downward pressure on the gold price. In any event, it strikes me there is a disconnect between the current market demand/supply equation and the futures market where gold is quoted this morning at under U.S.$760 per ounce, down from approximately U.S.$900 approximately two weeks ago. As best I know, the price of gold should gain ground in uncertain economic times – which we certainly are in – and it is not doing that as this is written."
source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:08:02 -0400

"it was reported last week (again I have not been able to verify this) that the European Central Banks sold 7.6 tons of gold (about U.S.$250 million)

in the week ended October 10. If this is true, that ought to have put downward pressure on the gold price. In any event, it strikes me there is a disconnect between the current market demand/supply equation and the futures market where gold is quoted this morning at under U.S.$760 per ounce, down from approximately U.S.$900 approximately two weeks ago. As best I know, the price of gold should gain ground in uncertain economic times – which we certainly are in – and it is not doing that as this is written."
source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101383-why-gold-will-rocket?source=feed#comment-288701 288701

"it was reported last week (again I have not been able to verify this) that the European Central Banks sold 7.6 tons of gold (about U.S.$250 million)

in the week ended October 10. If this is true, that ought to have put downward pressure on the gold price. In any event, it strikes me there is a disconnect between the current market demand/supply equation and the futures market where gold is quoted this morning at under U.S.$760 per ounce, down from approximately U.S.$900 approximately two weeks ago. As best I know, the price of gold should gain ground in uncertain economic times – which we certainly are in – and it is not doing that as this is written."
source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 11:07:58 -0400

"it was reported last week (again I have not been able to verify this) that the European Central Banks sold 7.6 tons of gold (about U.S.$250 million)

in the week ended October 10. If this is true, that ought to have put downward pressure on the gold price. In any event, it strikes me there is a disconnect between the current market demand/supply equation and the futures market where gold is quoted this morning at under U.S.$760 per ounce, down from approximately U.S.$900 approximately two weeks ago. As best I know, the price of gold should gain ground in uncertain economic times – which we certainly are in – and it is not doing that as this is written."
source: www.stockresearchporta.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101467-strategies-to-end-the-crisis?source=feed#comment-288685 288685 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:59:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101463-opec-to-cut-production-at-friday-meeting-but-will-prices-react?source=feed#comment-288660 288660
Canada's Petro Canad reported increase in profits by 61% and the stock has only moved 5%. There are MANY plays like this out there. And to STICK IT to these colluders, I propose taking advantage of the mass undervaluation in the market. But, a word of wisdom. 1) be slow to act, as actions will have lengthy repercussions. 2) conduct proper due diligence ( don't be afraid to call an analyst, or share your ideas with a friend. 3) don't lose money. ]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:48:46 -0400
Canada's Petro Canad reported increase in profits by 61% and the stock has only moved 5%. There are MANY plays like this out there. And to STICK IT to these colluders, I propose taking advantage of the mass undervaluation in the market. But, a word of wisdom. 1) be slow to act, as actions will have lengthy repercussions. 2) conduct proper due diligence ( don't be afraid to call an analyst, or share your ideas with a friend. 3) don't lose money. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101462-is-it-time-to-bottom-fish?source=feed#comment-288655 288655
It seems as if the good will continue to suffer for the bad. Ie shareholders for the fat cats.
But what can we do?

We've given them our tax money, with no guidelines for spending. Look at AIG and their squandering.

Warren Buffett has jumped in the market. Is this a good sign for us?

Or is Mr. Buffett so long term, that even if we drop 50% lower it dosen't concern hm?

If we don't go by P/E. What would be a better method to better value stocks to bottom fish?]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:43:32 -0400
It seems as if the good will continue to suffer for the bad. Ie shareholders for the fat cats.
But what can we do?

We've given them our tax money, with no guidelines for spending. Look at AIG and their squandering.

Warren Buffett has jumped in the market. Is this a good sign for us?

Or is Mr. Buffett so long term, that even if we drop 50% lower it dosen't concern hm?

If we don't go by P/E. What would be a better method to better value stocks to bottom fish?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101108-whither-canada-s-tar-sands?source=feed#comment-287720 287720
Wrong board? NO.

Alternative, believe it or not is quite dependent on oil. How?

FUNDING. Alas. the Light. The majority of tax breaks and grants given to A-Energy companies are from the carbon taxes enforced on large oil producers.. eg. Exxon.

If oil companies are producing less... guess what? profits will be less... and... you GOT IT! the gov revenue from carbon taxes will be less, resulting in less funds and breaks given to alternative energy players.

Ironic isn't it?]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:04:25 -0400
Wrong board? NO.

Alternative, believe it or not is quite dependent on oil. How?

FUNDING. Alas. the Light. The majority of tax breaks and grants given to A-Energy companies are from the carbon taxes enforced on large oil producers.. eg. Exxon.

If oil companies are producing less... guess what? profits will be less... and... you GOT IT! the gov revenue from carbon taxes will be less, resulting in less funds and breaks given to alternative energy players.

Ironic isn't it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101058-oil-bull-market-on-hold-demand-should-keep-growing?source=feed#comment-287714 287714 up. This bear market will last a while... could be 2 years. Once the
financial institutions get their cash, they can free up some credit
which can help businesses. Businesses will spend, hire, and hopefully
stabilize unemployment in time. Common folks will need some time to
save up for their new car or a home due to tighter credit
requirements. So dunno how long everything will take to improve, but
only time can tell. ]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:00:17 -0400 up. This bear market will last a while... could be 2 years. Once the
financial institutions get their cash, they can free up some credit
which can help businesses. Businesses will spend, hire, and hopefully
stabilize unemployment in time. Common folks will need some time to
save up for their new car or a home due to tighter credit
requirements. So dunno how long everything will take to improve, but
only time can tell. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100462-cramer-s-now-a-market-timer?source=feed#comment-284481 284481
I don't follow Cramer I follow Warren Buffett...

To sum him up I live by his quote "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"

Value is to be found in this market, however patience and emotional control are not. ]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 10:29:18 -0400
I don't follow Cramer I follow Warren Buffett...

To sum him up I live by his quote "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"

Value is to be found in this market, however patience and emotional control are not. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99968-three-reasons-the-stock-market-rally-won-t-last?source=feed#comment-283044 283044 Are you familiar with the term "dead cat bounce": A quick, moderate rise in the price of a stock following a precipitous decline.

I believe this is exactly what we will see. If not stocks, real estate, and land, where will be see the shift in wealth? Many have indicated that corn, wheat and soy will become our commodities of choice for owning. Perhaps in partnerships with friends?

I personally see the future in precious metals. GOLD. Merill recently announced that they see gold going to $1500 within the next 2 years. That says alot.]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:46:38 -0400 Are you familiar with the term "dead cat bounce": A quick, moderate rise in the price of a stock following a precipitous decline.

I believe this is exactly what we will see. If not stocks, real estate, and land, where will be see the shift in wealth? Many have indicated that corn, wheat and soy will become our commodities of choice for owning. Perhaps in partnerships with friends?

I personally see the future in precious metals. GOLD. Merill recently announced that they see gold going to $1500 within the next 2 years. That says alot.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99945-consumer-credit-declines-economy-reacts?source=feed#comment-283038 283038
]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:41:55 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100030-survival-of-the-longest?source=feed#comment-283036 283036
I do think you are on the right track with the recessionary forecast. However what has me up at night, is trying to assess given market factors, HOW LONG it will last? will be see a "U" shape recovery? "V" shaped recovery?orrrrrrrrrr an "L" and simply flat line for a while.

Anyone?]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:39:40 -0400
I do think you are on the right track with the recessionary forecast. However what has me up at night, is trying to assess given market factors, HOW LONG it will last? will be see a "U" shape recovery? "V" shaped recovery?orrrrrrrrrr an "L" and simply flat line for a while.

Anyone?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100038-oil-gas-headed-lower-as-economy-strikes-consumers?source=feed#comment-283031 283031 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:33:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100020-the-big-spending-fade-rolls-on?source=feed#comment-283019 283019 Mr. g the Us inflation figures are extremely skewed to a particular direction by means of its sheer calculation. We WILL see prices rise. Don't igore the supply side of the equation. With an increase in money supply, and decrease in interest rates.. comes an increase in inflation.. and potentially HYPERinflation. ]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 12:21:51 -0400 Mr. g the Us inflation figures are extremely skewed to a particular direction by means of its sheer calculation. We WILL see prices rise. Don't igore the supply side of the equation. With an increase in money supply, and decrease in interest rates.. comes an increase in inflation.. and potentially HYPERinflation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99680-bullion-shortage-and-spot-prices-tell-two-different-gold-stories?source=feed#comment-282060 282060 www.stockresearchporta...]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 10:43:47 -0400 www.stockresearchporta...]]>