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Freedoms Truth

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  • Update On Crude: Now Is The Time To Turn Mildly Bullish [View article]
    If you dont want to be the pioneer with the arrow in your back on this, just wait for oil to go above the 50 DMA. or break its down-channel. You'll just miss the first $6 of the move.

    This is not a short-cycle thing but a long trend. If he's right we will see a recovery to mid-$50s by end of year and higher next year. JMHO.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling [View article]
    It's great if technology can keep oil prices in check and do it flexibly. The question is how much lower a price point can it sustainably serve 95mbd in demand, and is that price point one that will satisfy the Saudis.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling [View article]
    Given the crashing markets, we could be looking at a demand collapse as bad as, or worse than, '08"

    US Q3 GDP forecast is 2.3%, good econ reports, Germany had a good report out today, China's leading indicators were up, for US low recession risk.

    The market turmoil is not driven by economic weakness, but - ironically - by imbalances in currencies, some of which were due to China but also due to ... tada, low price of oil & commodities. Through in Fed uncertainty and voila - 'risk off' mode. As with Dec/Jan, oil and currency volatility leaked into our stock market.

    This article is convincing that oil may soon bottom. As it does, this will stabilize other commodities, currencies and the dollar and re-adjust. That includes stabilizing the US market.

    So this is not a 'depressionary collapse' imho - hard to have that when there isnt even a recession in the forecast.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    The Obama administrations own estimate was that the recession unemployment would peak at uder 9% *without* the stimulus. With it, we went to over 10%. With it, we still took over 5 years to get back to pre-recession unemployment, longer than any other postWWII 'recovery'.
    The stimulus was a flop.

    We have never had 'austerity budget' except for Obama's insistent tax increases - in obamacare and in the fiscal cliff. Those tax increases have harmed job creation and lowered growth, aka 'austerity'. it's bizarre to talk of Republican austerity when the Republicans were against the austerity-tax-increases, and when furthermore deficits have continued at very high levels, with a debt over $17 trillion. More debt and deficits are not the answer, and its not a 'diabolical plot' to propose we stop adding to the debt ad infinitum.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    2015 feels a bit like 2007, and it is curious that the low was in August in 2007 as well, before getting back the high in november (and then falling thourhg 2008), so not unreasonable to posit either a) this is a correction only or b) the aging bull makes a bounce before it dies.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Counting The Down Days For Favorable Odds [View article]
    Read this elsewhere, so cutting and pasting.

    ... when the S&P 500 makes a 6-month low (like it did today), the index tends to be higher down the road. since 1928, the S&P 500 has made a new 6-month low 623 times.
    -next month, the median return is 1.37%, while the index is positive 59% of the time. (S&P 1996)
    -next 3 months, median return is 2.06%, while the index is positive 57% of the time. (S&P 2030)
    - Over the next year, the median return is 10.16% (S&P 2167)

    I think that given that the market gave up about 1% just in the last hour as options expired, it seems that a bounce from that being gone might be in order. without a doubt, there will be an oversold bounce at some point, but it might be Tues not Mon.

    YMMV.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    "I'm buying modest -- note modest --- amounts of countries growing at 7% a year, median age around 30, little direct China exposure, PE around 10, and no serious debt issues, while completely unowned by US investors, after an 8 year bear market, with favourable governments."

    I like your thinking? Examples?


    Aug 23, 2015. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    What is the logic behind this apparent "seven-year itch?" Is there some kind of mysterious force that makes everything go to hell every seven years or so?"

    The 'logic' is that you ignore real events that dont fit your thesis:
    1997/1998 Asia crises
    2001-2002 bear market
    1980 recession went to 1982
    1979 iranian hostage and oil spike and gold spike etc.
    2012 European crises

    Very simplistic to put it on a timeline.
    Aug 23, 2015. 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    Over the last 10 years, the price of oil has been below $50 only 6 out of 120 months, or 5% of the time.

    Calls for shorting oil at $40 sounds indeed like maximum pessimism.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:09 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Details Its First Proper Tesla Competitor, The 310-Mile Range SUV [View article]
    Yeah, the model X will realize the falcon doors are a bad design and will lose them.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Details Its First Proper Tesla Competitor, The 310-Mile Range SUV [View article]
    The key is what standard wins.

    If the other auto makers are smart, they go with a 'standard' that locks Tesla out. They also put charging stations in every dealership to seed the market and do co-marketing deals with retail operations like starbucks and mcdonalds, so charging parks are opptys for people to get food and coffee.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Details Its First Proper Tesla Competitor, The 310-Mile Range SUV [View article]
    We can go 4-6 hrs and switch off, but you do need stops more frequently than 350 miles just for restroom and food, but on a long trip, the nice thing is there is usually a gas station when and where you want to stop. Right now the EV folks have to plan the trip around where the chargers are. You'll need 100,000 charger stations, and even then, the 30+ minute wait makes it a less convenient stop than getting gas.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Morgan Stanley's Stratospheric $465 Target Is No Coincidence [View article]
    In others words, just because we are paranoid doesn't mean they are not out to get us! :)
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Morgan Stanley's Stratospheric $465 Target Is No Coincidence [View article]
    The Big Lie behind this MS note is that EVs have some inherent autonomous driving advantage. Autonomy and the drivetrain used are completely independent. It's not about ICE or EV, it's more about how you collect and communicate data. GM's OnStar is as much a candidate for shared information as Tesla's remote access, and a number of other auto makers are further ahead on autonomous driving features than Tesla.

    "We would be surprised if Tesla did not share business plans" - wow, so he is suggesting not to make an investment based on plans or projections or actual products of Tesla, but based on an assumption that plans will be shared. None of these technologies are material to any results in the next 3 years, and moreover it completely neglects that the competitive marketplace may shift who offers what, making it impossilbe to calibrate let alone conclude any claims to dominance in any area. one might as well be predicting we will all be driving an Apple car by 2025. To call it speculation is an insult to real informed speculation.

    It's narrative-based fantasy-hype. This pie-in-the-sky selling is so 1999.

    So the real question is why the MS note is so non-objective, and this article helpfully decodes the agenda behind the stock promotion. It's all about the $600 million secondary they are stuffing into the channel - gotta sell! MS = Muppet Scammers?

    JMHO.
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:35 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors prices secondary offering [View news story]
    What is the amperage or power rating of the Tesla $3000 powerwall if you want to draw from it? under 1 kw?
    Aug 16, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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