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Freedoms Truth

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  • VXX And High-Frequency Trading [View article]
    It's a high risk speculation either long OR short. I oughta know, the last 4 days were quite a roller coaster for vxx.
    Apr 16 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX And High-Frequency Trading [View article]
    Total gibberish. In particular:

    "ETF has not tested longer-term support yet, its longer-term channel is very weak, and aside from an intra channel level of support, there are no immediate trading catalysts. A solid trade could come if VXX drops to mid-term support, but that would only be a trade, not an investment."

    TA does NOT matter on this product, its a DERIVATIVE product. Toxic? yes. Amenable to chart analysis? Other than noticing how it tends to go down... not really.

    Comments about the 'contango' btw, vxx has held up ok this year in part because contango has NOT been severe.
    Apr 16 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory [View article]
    "Rick Perry 2016"

    Yes, getting Tesla would be a capstone to Perry's 14 year (mostly successful) quest to win more business and jobs for Texas.
    Apr 6 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory [View article]
    LOL on the anti-Texas anti-SA comments. San Antonio crooked? drugs and crime? compared to Vegas?!? Oakland?!?

    Texas is a great place to build a car plant, its why Toyota and a number of other car assembly and parts makers have chosen it. Toyota's truck plant is near San Antonio. More car-building in Texas than in any of the other states mentioned. Texas is closer to transit, markets, etc. has good labor pool to run the plant, that plus the pro-business climate make it an easy correct choice to pick Texas.

    Perry is the top Republican in a Republican state, and there is enough of a pro-free-market point of view here that if a change in the law is needed, it will happen. Others notes the pro-Tesla bill passed out of committee last session, likely will get passed next session and signed by Gov Abbott.

    There is another plus in Tesla's pocket, which is that SpaceX wants Texas and Texas wants SpaceX. In other words, there is leverage on both sides to make a deal.

    I'm not as in touch as others as to Tesla's thinking, but it's clear enough that it wouldn't be a bad decision to choose Texas.
    Apr 6 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone's Betting Big On Coming Volatility; How And Why They Might Be Doing That [View article]
    Bingo. $8 million is big hedge for one individual investor, but who knows what the size of the investor is. with the global market cap now in the 10s of trillions of dollars range, its a tiny amount in the ocean of market liquidity.
    Apr 6 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone's Betting Big On Coming Volatility; How And Why They Might Be Doing That [View article]
    If they are hedging $1 billion + in assets, its no big deal. 0.8% of a portfolio.

    What convinces me is that you do the math and find that EVEN IF VXX IS ON AVERAGE A LOSING TRADE TO BUY, IT STILL CAN WIN WRT RISK/REWARD.

    That is, a hedged vxx position will reduce the variability in the returns, so the return is lower but the 'tail risk' lower and hence sharpe ratio can rise.

    A seeking alpha article went through it convincingly some years back.

    vxx is such a good short some cannot imagine vxx would serve a purpose, yet it can. I doubt any big player would be dumb enough to just be naked vxx long, but as a hedge in a long-dominated portfolio, and at a time when the 'contango' price is low and vix is not high - it's a not-too-expensive hedge.

    JMHO.
    Apr 6 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone's Betting Big On Coming Volatility; How And Why They Might Be Doing That [View article]
    " I find it interesting that a routine correction generated more fear than Putin's efforts in the Ukraine. "

    Not really. The latter is a political event and the market impact was muted because Crimea and even Russia are not important economically to the US. Moreover, the weak sanctions Obama imposed show the likely path forward is one where we dont actually stand up to Putin now, a typical kick-the-can response that will cause mischief later while Putin steals Crimea now.
    Mar 21 05:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    The refutation of this conspiracy theory is that the entire options market sets the pricing on all these derivatives, so its like moving a whale to catch a mouse ( the VIX ETP bit-players). Crowded maybe, but still in the single-digit billions range.
    Mar 9 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    " higher ... profit playing the long side in 2013 than I did on the short side. Who would've thunk? "

    You were either very good timing-wise or very lucky.
    Mar 9 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    How are you quantifying the popularity of the trade?
    You make statements but dont give numbers to back up what 'popularity' means.

    One way I see that there is some impact is the contango. It is a lot less now (around 3%) than in recent years (been 8% or more between 1st and 2nd months in 2012 and 2013), making the cost of insurance much less and the profitability of shorting vol less as well. The pendulum swings ...
    Mar 5 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    "is climate change happening around a rising temperature trend line due to man's CO2 emissions? "

    Yes! And it is moderate, benign, NOT a big deal, and LESS than the models and scary predictors claimed. Trends in global temps have been flat for 15 years, and climate scientists in the know are now saying that is is driven by longer-term natural cycles like AMO / PDO (pacific decadal oscillation). The implications of that are that our non-warming trend has another decade or more to run.

    As such, the SeekingAlpha / $$ side of this would be: There will not be cap-and-trade or further regulations any time soon, as the fear-based claims continue to get further discredited. Obama's overreach with EPA is the high water mark of such efforts. Congress in GOP hands wont make the mistake of further regulation of harmless CO2 and the EU is pulling back. The last UN conference was a dud.

    Meanwhile, China is on track to emit TWICE the CO2 as the US, and even surpass the EU in future years in per capita emissions, making the efforts we do on national level irrelevent if china doesnt sign up.

    Japan, for economic reasons, will get back on nuclear. (Just announced).

    Nat gas, as you correctly predict, will continue to boom globally as the US fracking revolution goes worldwide, but for economic reasons, not climate change. The lower CO2 emissions is just a 'bonus' for moving to CH4 for energy.
    Feb 26 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    .... and remember we MUST ACT NOW!!! ... before it's too late!!! ..

    by which we mean by 2018, another 4 years of non-warming around the global will totally shred the credibility of those who claimed this was an imminent crisis, make it clear that 'global warming' is really not that bad, and so we MUST ACT NOW before the fear-mongering scam falls apart!
    Feb 26 01:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    GE is making statements that are wholly self-interested. If you want a climate change debate, have at it, but when GE touts their 'green' investments is all about the GREEN as in the color of money for GE. "green" energy makes them moolah. And I agree with TAS that this is PR pandering. A massive behemoth industrial supplier aint exactly sexy, so they run those ads on sunday morning shows only watched by congressmen because they need to protect their ass(ets) from govt interventions.

    Not that I blame them, the new wind turbines are good technology, as are high-efficiency turbines for jets and power plants. But dont let the green-washing fool you.

    BTW, its truth that both the basic science on CO2 influencing temps is sound (moderately, and not a big deal, actually), AND the "global warming is a crisis" claims about polar bears and every extreme weather event blamed on AGW are most certainly a hoax, as in there is no science to back it up. We ALL believe the science, the debate is what in the claims is real science and what is sexed-up claims driven by a political agenda.
    Feb 26 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    Gas turbines are at close to 60% efficiency and Immelt is talking about 62% efficient turbines. That's the real delta both in CO2 emissions but most importantly cost, and why nat gas even at $5/mmcf is competitive.

    But natgas is so flexible and useful for various uses, transport, industrial, heating, peak power, etc. it's almost a shame to waste it on baseload generation.

    The game changer to get coal and nuclear competitive again is if/when coal and nuclear can be made to be much more efficient, from 35-40% thermal to electricity, to above 55%. That's the natgas advantage. In the 70s, nuclear and coal was at 33% and natgas was at 40% efficiency. today, nat gas has improved significantly to the 58% range (and each gain cuts the equivalent capital and fuel cost by that gain ratio), but coal and nuclear havent made similar gains. This is mainly due to generation cycles, temperature ranges, etc.
    Feb 26 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Jeff Immelt: 'The Age Of Natural Gas Is Upon Us' [View article]
    "The New York Times recently had an article stating that the cold weather in the United States is irrelevant because other parts of the world are unusually hot"

    New york times lies, as usual.
    Feb 26 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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