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Freedoms Truth

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  • Apple: The Shift To Asset-Light, High-Margin, Middlemen Businesses [View article]
    "The argument that the iPhone is a single point of failure is technically true"

    It's not merely technically true, its a fundamental challenge.

    The smartphone is becoming SO GOOD that we will run into the 'radial tires' issue, ie that pricing will come down as users run out of reasons to buy ever more features. Smartphones are computers and like with PCs and laptops, they eventually get to saturation in the market.

    The good news is the market size is every human on the planet who can afford a phone. The bad news is that we are already scaling to that level and if people get to the point of replacing smartphones on longer timeframes than 24 months, we will be hitting single digit growth.
    smartphone growth is 11% in 2015, showing a large but maturing market, with 1.4 *billion* shipments Apple with about 15% share of that, and 1.9 billion in 2019.
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Shift To Asset-Light, High-Margin, Middlemen Businesses [View article]
    I would disagree that Google has 'failed'. Android is an eco-system, it's more open, and Google's search moat is as strong as any business.

    I find the closed eco-system of Apple so wrong and annoying I consciously avoid their products, to avoid that 'lockin'. You can do anything iPhone etc. does with android, Samsung galaxy S6 has same/more features v iphone6 and its more open. But then I own some Apple stock, so, yeah, lockin is good for shareholders. :)
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitestone REIT Is Now Yielding 8.9% [View article]
    Overall, good article and comments.

    One big concern is the concentration in Houston and what that means to their asset values and rents overall. Office in Houston has taken a hit with higher vacancy, not sure what the retail outlook is. Is that what's pushing the price down?
    Aug 1, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales [View article]
    "As for Solyndra, you persist in defending the entire program and claim that makes Solyndra not a disaster. Solyndra was an avoidable disaster. They should never have gotten such a huge loan (compared to their size) on the terms that they did. "

    BINGO. Not only was the technology weak, the business proposition flawed, but the standards used were all wrong.
    Jul 25, 2015. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales [View article]
    "Solyndra wasn't a disaster like the Republicans (predominantly) make it out to be"

    Solyndra cost taxpayers half a billion dollars, so apparently Republicans can count better than you can.

    And no, when stimulus and green subsidies were sold, we were NOT told there would be a mix of failures in there. only an idiot funds failures at the billion-dollar level. Speculative research might fail, but this was NOT speculative research, these were loan guarantees.
    The fact that Solyndra execs were Democrat donors and went to the white house is a red flag for what really went on. Bad decisions and greased palms funding the cronyism.
    Jul 25, 2015. 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings [View article]
    Excellent commentary.

    Predictions long or short are easy to make. That's why so many are made. Explaining correctly how and WHY the market will behave in the future in near-impossible. The best retort is: If you are so right about the market, why aren't you Soros-level rich?

    There are structural imbalances in the global economy, but the perma-bears wrongly assume that means the economy is a jalopy headed for breakdown. Nope, we are more like a supertanker with barnacles on it and some holes in the hull. Patch em up and we wont sink.

    Jeff's commentary is often a good counterpart to often overheated claims, but the day it becomes an excuse for complacency is the day the bulls days are numbered. And lambasting someone else's predictions doesnt make for more informed commentary.
    Jul 19, 2015. 04:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales [View article]
    The falcon wings mean I can't park it in the garage. They are actually a 'cool' impracticality. Like many things 'cool' it really means "different than the ordinary practical thing that's been done before" (ie sliding doors like on mininvans, or side opening doors).
    Jul 19, 2015. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview Of Electric Car Announcements At Frankfurt Auto Show [View article]
    The elephant in the room is Toyota. Once an EV leader with the Prius, they are still on their hydrogen / FCEV kick, and seem to be missing the boat on BEVs and PHEVs.
    Jul 19, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales [View article]
    A better way to ask:
    If you had a 20 mile track, which would win?
    How soon does the model S go into 'limp' mode?
    Jul 19, 2015. 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales [View article]
    Finally, I come to understand why the revenue / SA article ratio is higher with TSLA than any other stock.

    An over-followed, over-priced, over-analyzed stock indeed.
    Jul 19, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: July 16, 2015 Update [View article]
    I read an article in 1988 warning us that demographics and entitlements were going to bankrupt us.

    Still hasnt happened.

    Wonder how long, for how many decades, the Romans were muttering about those danged barbarians who would end their empire ... gee, it took about 100 years or so, so for 90 years or so the Pollyanna's were 'right'.
    Jul 19, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Consequences Of The (Eurozone) Peace [View article]
    "but also won the backing of 70% of the population for his handling of the negotiations. Say what you will about the seemingly inept performance of the Tsipras team during the negotiations - the man does have his finger on the pulse of his country. "

    I'm convinced greeks are absurd fantasists.
    1. They voted for Syriza on the fantasy platform that a bunch of leftists hurling insults at bankers would get them better terms from the same bankers.
    2. When that didnt work, Tsipras decided, at the 11th hour, NOT to accept the one final deal needed to keep them in the Euro.
    3. Then hell broke loose when Tsipras called a referendum on it. Remarkably, 60% of the Greeks voted 'no' even though 'no' really meant 'leave the euro' but most Greeks both want to stay in the Euro and give the creditors who gave them bailouts the middle finger.
    4. Then, amazingly, after the 'no' vote, Tsipras all but repudiates the result of the 'no' vote by actually agreeing to terms no better than he rejected 2 weeks prior.
    Huh? Oh, but that was after banks were closed for 1 week, and after 6 months of uncertainty.

    In the end, Tsipras has only made Greece's situation far worse. The 6 months of uncertainty has dragged their economy lower, the terms remain harsh, the debt unsustainable, and the very policies Tsipras wants - more taxes and mroe spending - are the opposite of what the Greek economy needs. They need drastic cuts in public sector spending, tax CUTS, a debt moratorium, and a path to employment for all Greeks. Dont tell the IMF; on this score, the Greeks have a point. Raising taxes on an economy flat on its back only makes things worse.

    The ultimate contradiction is that Greeks want aid but not the austerity program that come with it. They continued to believe the impossible, but then when their PM finally relents to reality, they cheer him for it, despite his wasting everyone's time.
    Jul 19, 2015. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    Your risk is limited to a divvie cut that occurs due to inability to cover dividends.
    Doubling down on losers is a path to the poorhouse.
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Cements Credentials As A Long-Term Stock [View article]
    Former EXC holder as well.

    One of their problems is that the fleet of nuclear plants was a brilliant move in the 2000s as the nuclear renaissance, high fossil fuel prices and threat of carbon regs seems to convey a shift to nuclear, but then low natural gas prices have upended economics of power plants.

    Obama admin has put in CO2 regs that's a 'kill coal' plan that favors natural gas plants (and insanely insists on peaker plants having higher utilization, hurting grid capacity) but does little to help utilities nor nuclear industry. Obama's Yucca decision and other decisions have been hostile to nuclear.

    Despite that, the nuclear fleet is a long-term asset for EXC. These nuclear plants could and should be run for a lot longer. Closing them is killing assets.
    Jul 18, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Will Be Resolved And VXX Will Tank Once More [View article]
    Yes, USA taxpayers fund IMF which runs their 'bailouts' that keep the global credit system flowing.
    Jul 13, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment