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Freedoms Truth

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  • Stocks: Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    "he only exception that took place during a secular bear market was the recent 2011 episode"

    HUH? 2009 to 2015 hasnt been a bull market?
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Actually Going To Happen Next Year [View article]
    I call it 'more cowbell' keynesianism.
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude - A Few More Observations [View article]
    That would be counterproductive ... trigger a global recession that knocks oil back down.
    Seems more sensible to find a new 'normal' for oil prices.
    Sep 13, 2015. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And Nothing Else Matters [View article]
    Correct. It's not the Fed's responsibility to avoid recessions or have a booming economy all the time ... just a stable money supply and a secure financial system. And it's not managed to do that some of the time.
    Sep 13, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Peak Is In [View article]
    "If the economy is so great then why are rates still hovering near 0?"

    "Tis a mystery.

    And ... If rates still hovering near 0 why isn't the economy booming?
    Sep 13, 2015. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Volatility Now May Be A Very Favorable Trade [View article]
    You can short vxx by going long xiv or vice versa, most of these ETFs have an inverse, so there are ways to do a trade without actually shorting. you lose on tracking a bit but win on convexity.
    Sep 6, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Volatility Now May Be A Very Favorable Trade [View article]
    Well, I lost way more than $75k being short volatility past 2 weeks, and I thought I knew what I was doing. :( The plain fact is if you don't know what you are doing, you will lose money certainly, but if you do know what your doing, you may STILL lose money.

    Yes, he is wrong, since these are tracking instruments derived from CBOE futures. You cannot 'squeeze' a tracking instrument. Knowing how VIX futures behave tells you what may happen to vxx. Right now backwardation is gravitational pull to push it up, while vix being way above it typical levels of past few years may cause it to fall.

    This spike will probably fade from here, but as others noted, if for example the market drops back to retest 1870, then vix will spike and so will vix futures and thus vxx. No current indicators suggest the economy is anywhere near 2008 risks, but bear markets have happened and there is unresolved questions out there to make volatility linger, ie Fed rate hike, China, etc.
    Aug 31, 2015. 02:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Crude: Now Is The Time To Turn Mildly Bullish [View article]
    If you dont want to be the pioneer with the arrow in your back on this, just wait for oil to go above the 50 DMA. or break its down-channel. You'll just miss the first $6 of the move.

    This is not a short-cycle thing but a long trend. If he's right we will see a recovery to mid-$50s by end of year and higher next year. JMHO.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling [View article]
    It's great if technology can keep oil prices in check and do it flexibly. The question is how much lower a price point can it sustainably serve 95mbd in demand, and is that price point one that will satisfy the Saudis.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling [View article]
    Given the crashing markets, we could be looking at a demand collapse as bad as, or worse than, '08"

    US Q3 GDP forecast is 2.3%, good econ reports, Germany had a good report out today, China's leading indicators were up, for US low recession risk.

    The market turmoil is not driven by economic weakness, but - ironically - by imbalances in currencies, some of which were due to China but also due to ... tada, low price of oil & commodities. Through in Fed uncertainty and voila - 'risk off' mode. As with Dec/Jan, oil and currency volatility leaked into our stock market.

    This article is convincing that oil may soon bottom. As it does, this will stabilize other commodities, currencies and the dollar and re-adjust. That includes stabilizing the US market.

    So this is not a 'depressionary collapse' imho - hard to have that when there isnt even a recession in the forecast.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    The Obama administrations own estimate was that the recession unemployment would peak at uder 9% *without* the stimulus. With it, we went to over 10%. With it, we still took over 5 years to get back to pre-recession unemployment, longer than any other postWWII 'recovery'.
    The stimulus was a flop.

    We have never had 'austerity budget' except for Obama's insistent tax increases - in obamacare and in the fiscal cliff. Those tax increases have harmed job creation and lowered growth, aka 'austerity'. it's bizarre to talk of Republican austerity when the Republicans were against the austerity-tax-increases, and when furthermore deficits have continued at very high levels, with a debt over $17 trillion. More debt and deficits are not the answer, and its not a 'diabolical plot' to propose we stop adding to the debt ad infinitum.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    2015 feels a bit like 2007, and it is curious that the low was in August in 2007 as well, before getting back the high in november (and then falling thourhg 2008), so not unreasonable to posit either a) this is a correction only or b) the aging bull makes a bounce before it dies.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Counting The Down Days For Favorable Odds [View article]
    Read this elsewhere, so cutting and pasting.

    ... when the S&P 500 makes a 6-month low (like it did today), the index tends to be higher down the road. since 1928, the S&P 500 has made a new 6-month low 623 times.
    -next month, the median return is 1.37%, while the index is positive 59% of the time. (S&P 1996)
    -next 3 months, median return is 2.06%, while the index is positive 57% of the time. (S&P 2030)
    - Over the next year, the median return is 10.16% (S&P 2167)

    I think that given that the market gave up about 1% just in the last hour as options expired, it seems that a bounce from that being gone might be in order. without a doubt, there will be an oversold bounce at some point, but it might be Tues not Mon.

    Aug 23, 2015. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    "I'm buying modest -- note modest --- amounts of countries growing at 7% a year, median age around 30, little direct China exposure, PE around 10, and no serious debt issues, while completely unowned by US investors, after an 8 year bear market, with favourable governments."

    I like your thinking? Examples?

    Aug 23, 2015. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Global Financial Crisis: Chinese Meltdown, U.S. Dollar Strength And The 'Original Sin' Pose Significant Risks To Emerging Markets [View article]
    What is the logic behind this apparent "seven-year itch?" Is there some kind of mysterious force that makes everything go to hell every seven years or so?"

    The 'logic' is that you ignore real events that dont fit your thesis:
    1997/1998 Asia crises
    2001-2002 bear market
    1980 recession went to 1982
    1979 iranian hostage and oil spike and gold spike etc.
    2012 European crises

    Very simplistic to put it on a timeline.
    Aug 23, 2015. 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment