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  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete? [View article]
    There are 30 global automobile manufacturers in a ruthless global competitive market. You dont use the word 'monopoly' properly.
    Jun 16, 2015. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Still Heading The Wrong Way [View article]
    "But I DO want it to go higher. "

    So you can short it later? lol.

    A lot of SA talk on just one (rather overpriced market-wise but interesting) company.

    TSLA has the highest SA article count vs revenues ratios of any stock.
    Jun 16, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete? [View article]
    If you cant drive it off the dealer parking lot today, that doesnt count.
    If its 3 years from reveal to actual consumer use, then we are talking 2018 or 2019 when model 3 will be actually on the road.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Volatility And The Roll Yield Contribute To The Price Action Of VXX In Different Market Environments [View article]
    Storage cost? Volatility has 'storage cost'? There's a different way to look at it!

    Actually, your point is a simplification and it's such simplifications that make for pointless semantic debate. I appreciate Mr Easter putting precision and quantification on what's going on. Pedantic but accurate beats simplistic explanations.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete? [View article]
    "the Nissan leaf which is smaller car than Model 3 consumes 250W per mile "

    True. 280wpm x 200 mi range = 56kwh. That's my guess.

    Not only that but the cost and weight estimates are optimistic. I'd be loathe to estimate a specific number other that what is doable today, because it's a moving target, ie price points may be unrealistic for 2017 but doable for 2022.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete? [View article]
    Buy a Lexus then. Owned a Lexus for 12 years and I had ZERO problems with it over 12 years. seriously, I changed tires, brakes and oil when needed and THATS IT.

    I've seen enough stories about Tesla issues that I wouldnt want to go there. I dont want a company that gives you a loaner when the car breaks down. I want a car that never NEEDS a loaner!

    Thats how reliable Lexus is.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete? [View article]
    Inoperative comment ... we know the price of gasoline and oil, and have futures to estimate the price into coming years.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Model S Backlog Fall By Half In The First Quarter? [View article]
    "They will be cash flow positive in the 4th quarter and have plenty of money now"
    How do you figure? Tesla cash flow from operations and capital expenses in 2014 was negative $1 billion. They burned through $563m or so in Q1, operations cost them $131m and investing cash flows another $300m, borrowed another $185m in Q1, and that still dropped their cash down almost $400m, to $1.5 billion in cash.

    They still have the gigafactory and model X rollout costing them a lot of cash. How do you figure their cash flows will suddenly get better? this wont happen until after the gigafactory is built.

    I would also note that one big item is the 'changes in inventories' which cost them $300m in cash in Q1. If someone can explain what is happening there, good or bad, and if that relates to backlog.

    "Oil should continue to move higher the rest of the year. "
    Why do you think this?
    Jun 5, 2015. 07:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Model S Backlog Fall By Half In The First Quarter? [View article]
    Lutz didn't push for the Volt. Jon Lauckner did. Tesla was irrelevant to GM in 2006, Toyota was.

    http://bit.ly/1KfxHoT
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Volatility And The Roll Yield Contribute To The Price Action Of VXX In Different Market Environments [View article]
    This is a high quality reference-level article. Thanks.
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Model S Backlog Fall By Half In The First Quarter? [View article]
    When will Tesla be profitable in your opinion?
    And what is your tesla 2016 profit/loss projection?
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Model S Backlog Fall By Half In The First Quarter? [View article]
    95% of car companies DO report monthly sales numbers.
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Model S Backlog Fall By Half In The First Quarter? [View article]
    "BMW and Audi are coming out with PHEV's with short range battery range but they're going to market that as the best of both worlds"

    They dont need to market it as best of both worlds, it IS the best of both worlds. 80 miles battery range is all you need in a car. The mistake is trying to go all BEV for a general-purpose car. Either keep it BEV (like Leaf) and keep it a city-car, or go with an ICE range extender (BMW i3) and make it general purpose. That's where the industry is going. Tesla is 'standing out' by making decisions that go against the economics of BEVs for now and the near-term future.

    Frankly, if the BMW i3 wasnt such an ugly duckling, I'd buy it myself, it's the absolutely right concepts for an EV: 80 miles electric range, range extender as needed.
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Model S Backlog Fall By Half In The First Quarter? [View article]
    "The roadster spurred the volt and the leaf. "
    Now THAT's a great example of arrogance. The prius electrified the drivetrain before Tesla was born. There have been many EV efforts before Tesla, and Toyota EVs like Prius and Rav4 were as much on GM's mind as anyone else. Tesla is just riding a trend many other carmakers are also pursuing.

    the explicit Volt instructions were to leapforg Prius:
    "A whitepaper was given to the Volt team stating the requirements to leapfrog Prius (Exhibit 10): “A vehicle that is more accessible, more environmentally acceptable and significantly cooler than Prius could ever be.” "

    The GM Volt effort began in 2007, before Roadster was launched.
    Volt's very concept was the opposite of the Tesla's premises:
    - volt is mass-market, tesla roadster / model S is niche
    - volt has 40 mi E-range and designed NOT to be a pure BEV because the technology was/is not ready for a mass market BEV.
    http://aol.it/1G0qSEJ

    "Jon Lauckner’s idea which persuaded Bob Lutz that an all EV was not viable for the mass market (in spite of its attractive technological purity!) was further developed into an extended-range EV (E-REV) with a 16 kWh battery pack and a 1.4-liter internal combustion engine (ICE). The battery would power the vehicle for the first 40 miles6 and the ICE would power an electric generator to drive the propulsion system for additional 300 miles (Exhibit 4)."

    Volt can be better seen as the next generation beyond the Prius, which had 10 mi of electric range. Many Volt owners who use the car for commuting go 80-95% of miles with electricity not gas. Leaf owners can report the same.

    It turns out that Tesla is wrong. Fundamentally wrong about what the ideal EV is. Lugging around 200+miles of battery is useless. You are better off with 40-80 miles of electric range, and an ICE range extender (with a small lightweight engine, like 1L or 1.5L 3 or 54 cylinder). The weight of the hybrid is less, the range can be better, and you still get 90% of miles on electric.

    The GM Volt nailed it correctly as the needed Electric range to get 'mostly' electric miles:
    "The MRS for the EV range (in the battery-discharge mode) was 40 miles based on market information that 80% of American and European car owners commuted 40 miles or less in a day."
    Surveys are showing that indeed Volt users charge 80%+ of their miles on electricity.

    The pure BEV is simpler as a system, but the tradeoff is more weight and cost, need 85 kwh of battery vs around 20 kwh in the BMW i3 (which gets 80 miles of electric range). Tesla can compete in the niche of expensive luxury cars, where buyers will pay for the extra cost. Why an extra 1,000 lbs just for getting 20% more electric miles?

    You are not seeing the Tesla model III because if you really wanted to engineer a good $30k BEV, you'd come up with ... the Nissan Leaf.
    And if you wanted a technology innovative plug-in EV you'd derive ... the BMW i3. And if you wanted a mass-market EV that evolves from the prius towards the full EV, you'd design ...the Volt.

    By the time Tesla gets to it, they will be a me-too player in a crowded EV market.
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:14 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Vs. Porsche - Tales Of Growth [View article]
    Let me answer my own question, as I looked it up:
    BMW i3 has 21- to 22-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack , is expected to provide a range of 70 to 100 miles. Motor is 130KW in the BMW i3 and the 0-60 mph time is supposed to be less than 8 seconds.

    The i3 range extender ICE is 25kW, should be able to go at 75mph or so - and short bursts of acceleration should be provided by the battery. Using 130KW of power for 8 secs consumes roughly 0.3 KWhrs. You can very quickly get 0.3KWhrs back with a 20-30KWh ish range extender.

    Combined with a gas tank of 2 to 3 gallons, the ReX engine and generator almost double the i3's range, and do so providing the typical

    the perhaps could have gotten a bigger ICE and gas tank and had zero compromises on performance through 250 miles, but in fact they built this around people's real world use of the vehicle, and that is what got hem to 80 miles of Battery EV range, and another 100 miles with an ICE.
    Jun 1, 2015. 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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