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Freedoms Truth

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  • AAII Sentiment Survey: More Than 50% Of Individual Investors Are Bullish [View article]
    Manic-depressive sentiment. wasnt it super-bearish 3 weeks ago?
    Sep 1 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow And Perilous Death Of Bull Markets [View article]
    "more informative is to look at 2006 to now. we've seen about a 5.5% CAGR in the Dow. (11k to 17k in 8 years) "

    True, but the economy hasnt had 5% CAGR since 2006, we are just a bit larger in the economy.

    No bear market unless a recession hits, but then the question is when will that be.
    Aug 7 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless claims decline [View news story]
    We have had millions join the work force since 2006, and the total number of jobs for them is ... about flat.
    Aug 7 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless claims decline [View news story]
    "It is possible to go from bad to worse."

    Not just possible, that's reality.
    And in other news, if the election of 2012 were held today as a 'do over', Romney would win.
    Aug 7 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good News From A Bad Friday [View article]
    Isn't that what CNBC is for?
    Aug 2 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: On-Processor Chip Memory - It Can Be Done At High Margins [View article]
    "Power savings are derived from not having to drive capacitively loaded PCB trace drivers."

    And THAT is a big deal.
    Combine this with SSD drives and your laptops power consumption can go down by 3x.

    You can achieve most of these gains with stacked die as TSVs and/or multi-chip packaging.
    Jul 13 01:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: On-Processor Chip Memory - It Can Be Done At High Margins [View article]
    DRAM is more compact than SRAM. But it's also slower and has latency. It may not be good architecture to skip the SRAM cache levels.
    The flipside is to add MORE cache, which improves performance.
    In a separate comment I mentioned how multichip package was more economical. Done right, it can have performance equal to on-chip DRAM,
    but at lower cost (2 higher yielding chips with simpler processes beat out one big chip).
    Jul 13 01:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: On-Processor Chip Memory - It Can Be Done At High Margins [View article]
    All things are possible. But what makes most sense?
    Economically, the best of all world's is likely a multi-chip package solution, and here is why:
    - DRAM and logic are different processes. They need different layers, implants etc. This is why its not common to have embedded memory in CPUs on the same chip.
    - multi-chip package could get quite close to the single chip performance with a well-design stacked die. cell phones are already there in some cases.
    - Processor chips already have memory, SRAM cache, onboard.
    - Embedded DRAM is not a new idea, but has been around for a while in the SOC world. similarly, there have been efforts in the embedded FPGA space.
    - The main reason to go this route instead of the multi-chip package route would be performance. secondary route would be if the chip was small enough that its actually not mroe costly than multichip solution.
    - A further wrinkle is that 14nm is not less costly and the area savings are starting to dry up, as the transistors are scaling but the metal layers are not. Thus it makes more sense to put CPU at 14nm and hang back with lower cost 28/20nm for other logic and DRAM etc.

    Bottom line: While embedded DRAM is a possibility in mobile and embedded DRAM on chip does make sense in some cases, generally less flexible and economical than multi-chip package route. 3-d stacked die and multi-chip package level super-integration is where most things are going.

    Caveats: Long-term experience in semiconductors, so I know what 'makes sense' but (even though an Intel shareholder) havent looked closely at what Intel and TSMC are doing.
    Jul 13 01:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - This Rally Is Getting A Bit Steep [View article]
    I'm afraid of that. Not enough fear and shakeouts as its going up,
    so more likely to be a nasty correction when it happens, since its getting more and more discounted.

    Earnings havent grown 8% in 12 weeks, so ....
    Jul 7 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX Outlook For July [View article]
    The lesson here is the difference between VIX and VXX.

    VIX would be a good 'long' right now, has a lot more upside than downside, but
    you cant long VIX, only VIX futures, which 'discount' some potential rise. VXX demand you comp the house 8% a month to make that bet. Your analysis shows that even in 'good' months the bets not a good one.

    You'll need more than the calendar to justify it. Maybe a 'breakout' signal that there is a pullback about to happen. Its what makes a market.
    Jun 30 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    We are still here. Nothing was wrecked. that's like that monty python clip:
    "She turned me into a newt"
    "What happened?"
    "I got better"
    Jun 30 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    "I found those that invest based on politics tend to underperform. "

    That doesnt make the points less valid ... just non-investable.

    In fact, this

    "Poor economic policy - ObamaCare, tax policy, regulation, tight credit for housing. Loose credit for education and autos. Call a spade a spade. "

    ... is manifestly both true and irrelevent to the stock market.

    Poor economic policy and over-regulation from the Obama administration has held back what would have been a roaring economy under the right policies. Most of the gains in the economy have been
    - fracking economy related
    - ongoing tech boom related
    - Fed policy related
    Other govt actions have retarded growth, including but not only obamacare, hence the 2% growth level since 2009, instead of 3-4% level we should enjoy.

    Since we've had the Fed-induced corp balance sheet strengthening, corp buybacks, volatility flattening and QE, all rooted in low rates, the stock market has responded in kind. So while economic policy such as maintaining higher corp tax rates havent helped things, and the over-regulation has mainly cause lower re-investment, kept corp money overseas, etc. Yet we are awash in cheap capital with few good ideas except for some overpriced tech names to deploy it. S&P 2000 and PEs of 16-20 seems reasonable when 10 year is under 3%.

    But we are far from healthy. If not for fracking boosting our energy economy (just look at growth state-by-state and it will be obvious - the parts of US is hurting, the plains to Texas are booming), we'd be an European level malaise and growth, and we are one nationwide fracking ban away from a recession (yes, some folks want to push that).

    Blaming Q1 on the weather is a bit like those old Soviet reports of always blaming bad crop years on the weather. What's the excuse for the slowest recovery since WWII?
    Jun 30 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    What I dont get is how we could get -2.9% GDP in Q1, the WORST number in 30 years for quarterly growth outside a recession and NOT see any other 'warning signs' flash. It's .... odd.
    Jun 30 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Safe Bet On Volatility [View article]
    No, its more that 80% of the time contango will kill the vxx bet, even if the 'volatility will rise' *IS* right, but not timed right.
    .... we have and will have volatility spikes. the key is when and how big.
    so long as the bull is intacts, all spikes will fade.

    If you could predict the next bear market tho', and when it happens, just buy puts on the S&P.
    Jun 12 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Wasting Energy On The VIX [View article]
    In the macro sense, yes, since both 2007 and 1999/2000 had rising vol as the market was topping out.

    But ... does the market always do that?
    May 30 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment