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  • How Low Can Oil And The Markets Go?  [View article]
    What is the debt at now? Can we see the 'bottom'?
    Jan 17, 2016. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Percentiles To Outperform The Market With Volatility  [View article]
    That's not necessarily true, but the author would need precision on his metric.
    It could be the '15th top percentile for the past year, 2 years, or 5 years'. Another seeking alpha article some time back analyzed.
    Yes, volatility is mean reverting, so if you short volatility when its in the top 10% of its range in the past year, you have a good probability trade.

    But they are indeed all probabilities and it should be backtested across different market types.
    Jan 8, 2016. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook For 2016: Despite The Near-Term Headwinds, The Bull Market Isn't Over And The S&P 500 Will Set New Highs In 2016  [View article]
    How much of this is simply due to the fall of coal?
    That is coal shipments down -> lower rail shipments -> lower rail mkt cap.

    Coal shipments down like 20% or more.
    Obama's war on coal and cheap nat gas is killing coal.
    Jan 3, 2016. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Drop In 2016, Look For Long-Term Opportunity  [View article]
    Trump's a former Democrat and was a Hillary supporter, so no surprise not many Republicans dont trust him. They shouldn't. He gets his support from independents, 'low information voters' who follow celebrity, and working-class whites of all parties. The nightmare for GOP is if he runs independent, or if he gets the nomination and runs his mouth off and sends the campaign off the rails - then Hillary will win.

    OTOH, the author is correct that Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio are capable and articulate and will likely beat Hillary. They will be pointing out how poorly household income has been doing under Obama and how the administration has screwed up in the mideast with policies that only helped ISIS, etc. Up against the ethically-challenged Hillary who is running on her gender, they can win.

    President Cruz will be another Reagan - hated by DC elites for being against big government, but good for the economy and the stock market.

    So this is germane to SA: The uncertainty around this election will keep things capped, but I did check. While 2000 and 2008 were awful years, 1976 and 1998 both had double-digit gains, so the political cycle is not a total negative on the market, and I cannot imagine the next President will be MORE hostile to business than Obama.
    Jan 3, 2016. 10:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Where Do We Go From Here?  [View article]
    "he only exception that took place during a secular bear market was the recent 2011 episode"

    HUH? 2009 to 2015 hasnt been a bull market?
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Actually Going To Happen Next Year  [View article]
    I call it 'more cowbell' keynesianism.
    Sep 14, 2015. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude - A Few More Observations  [View article]
    That would be counterproductive ... trigger a global recession that knocks oil back down.
    Seems more sensible to find a new 'normal' for oil prices.
    Sep 13, 2015. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And Nothing Else Matters  [View article]
    Correct. It's not the Fed's responsibility to avoid recessions or have a booming economy all the time ... just a stable money supply and a secure financial system. And it's not managed to do that some of the time.
    Sep 13, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Peak Is In  [View article]
    "If the economy is so great then why are rates still hovering near 0?"

    "Tis a mystery.

    And ... If rates still hovering near 0 why isn't the economy booming?
    Sep 13, 2015. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Volatility Now May Be A Very Favorable Trade  [View article]
    You can short vxx by going long xiv or vice versa, most of these ETFs have an inverse, so there are ways to do a trade without actually shorting. you lose on tracking a bit but win on convexity.
    Sep 6, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Shorting Volatility Now May Be A Very Favorable Trade  [View article]
    Well, I lost way more than $75k being short volatility past 2 weeks, and I thought I knew what I was doing. :( The plain fact is if you don't know what you are doing, you will lose money certainly, but if you do know what your doing, you may STILL lose money.

    Yes, he is wrong, since these are tracking instruments derived from CBOE futures. You cannot 'squeeze' a tracking instrument. Knowing how VIX futures behave tells you what may happen to vxx. Right now backwardation is gravitational pull to push it up, while vix being way above it typical levels of past few years may cause it to fall.

    This spike will probably fade from here, but as others noted, if for example the market drops back to retest 1870, then vix will spike and so will vix futures and thus vxx. No current indicators suggest the economy is anywhere near 2008 risks, but bear markets have happened and there is unresolved questions out there to make volatility linger, ie Fed rate hike, China, etc.
    Aug 31, 2015. 02:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On Crude: Now Is The Time To Turn Mildly Bullish  [View article]
    If you dont want to be the pioneer with the arrow in your back on this, just wait for oil to go above the 50 DMA. or break its down-channel. You'll just miss the first $6 of the move.

    This is not a short-cycle thing but a long trend. If he's right we will see a recovery to mid-$50s by end of year and higher next year. JMHO.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling  [View article]
    It's great if technology can keep oil prices in check and do it flexibly. The question is how much lower a price point can it sustainably serve 95mbd in demand, and is that price point one that will satisfy the Saudis.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling  [View article]
    Given the crashing markets, we could be looking at a demand collapse as bad as, or worse than, '08"

    US Q3 GDP forecast is 2.3%, good econ reports, Germany had a good report out today, China's leading indicators were up, for US low recession risk.

    The market turmoil is not driven by economic weakness, but - ironically - by imbalances in currencies, some of which were due to China but also due to ... tada, low price of oil & commodities. Through in Fed uncertainty and voila - 'risk off' mode. As with Dec/Jan, oil and currency volatility leaked into our stock market.

    This article is convincing that oil may soon bottom. As it does, this will stabilize other commodities, currencies and the dollar and re-adjust. That includes stabilizing the US market.

    So this is not a 'depressionary collapse' imho - hard to have that when there isnt even a recession in the forecast.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us?  [View article]
    The Obama administrations own estimate was that the recession unemployment would peak at uder 9% *without* the stimulus. With it, we went to over 10%. With it, we still took over 5 years to get back to pre-recession unemployment, longer than any other postWWII 'recovery'.
    The stimulus was a flop.

    We have never had 'austerity budget' except for Obama's insistent tax increases - in obamacare and in the fiscal cliff. Those tax increases have harmed job creation and lowered growth, aka 'austerity'. it's bizarre to talk of Republican austerity when the Republicans were against the austerity-tax-increases, and when furthermore deficits have continued at very high levels, with a debt over $17 trillion. More debt and deficits are not the answer, and its not a 'diabolical plot' to propose we stop adding to the debt ad infinitum.
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment