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Freedoms Truth

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  • Is The Weak Housing Market A Warning Sign For The U.S. Economy? [View article]
    It may well be that lower crude is playing into strong industrial production, I dont know. If lower gas prices gets people buying more cars for example ...
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Weak Housing Market A Warning Sign For The U.S. Economy? [View article]
    Chinese buy US homes?
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    It would be smarter to scale into this a bit at a time.
    Dec 16, 2014. 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    "The hard part of this is that for deep water (and oil sands) once the capital is spent, then costs to get the oil out are quite low. Oil sands are less than $12 per barrel for the lowest cost producers."

    But capital costs must be large.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    This is just a SWAG ... but ...

    If the long-term marginal cost of production is in the $80-90 range, (ie how much does the most expensive oil barrel cost?), supplying the world with 95 mbd at $80, then $90 might not be seen for at least 5-10 years, if the shale production doesnt pull back and Iraq and others increase ... we will see $90 only when global demand perks up as well and output cant meet it.

    $80 might be seen in the next 2 years, as there might be enough production pull back to get back to those levels. If that happens, Saudi's did their work. They know $110/barrel is incentivizing overproduction so want it in balance.

    Your and everyone's question is "where is the balance"? Well, right now bakken wellhead is only $41/ barrel. The balance longterm is above the current $55/WTI barrel price, given that not much new production can pay out those levels.

    I'm guessing short term (6 mos) in the $45-60 range, then we get the needed producation / capex pullbacks, and later in 2015 $60s, gradually climbing to $80 (or whatever the balanced price is) as lower capex constrains production expansion. Studying the futures out to future years might give an idea of how the market thinks about it. I read that WTI is under $80 out to 2020 ... so ...

    JMHO. The above article is more knowledgeable than me.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    It's true that Cali has a lot of offshore oil that is off limits.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Industrial Production Surges In November [View article]
    How much does the oil sector factor in and is there sign of de-celeration there?

    Despite the growth, there is no inflation pressure and dollar is strong so the Fed has leeway.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Crude Trading At $41.75/Bbl Is Continental Resources' Quandary [View article]
    Cool ... follow the dancers ... they know whether money's being deployed. :)

    Why is the market not (yet) noticing this?
    It seems the Libya outage was good for a mere 6 hr long bounce in OIL then back down.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil, Contagion And Equities: U.S. Equities Are The Next Shoe To Drop [View article]
    I havent finished reading the article - I will - but want to make instant comment that the CHART SHOWS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT HE IMPLIES.
    Back in the 1990s the Stock/oil ratio was much higher than today - we had cheap oil and a booming economy and stock market.

    In 2004, we started an era of expensive oil. That period is now reverting. thanks to US tight oil production increasing supplies, while the expensive oil has caused consumption to stay in check.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China growth could slow to 7.1% in 2015 [View news story]
    Yes, those trends will play out.
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    "No wonder the US has significantly higher cancer rates than almost all 3rd world countries "

    It has NOTHING to do with environmental factors that you mention and is more about diet and obesity and longer lifespan thanks to medical advances driving up cancer rates.

    btw we have tightest such environmental rules in human history, so tight that natural ozone is now violating EPA rules. What will they do next, outlaw the smokey mountains?
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    "do you even have a brain? Republicans (under baby Bush) ran up the debt from $5T to $10T,"
    ... but with $2T of that under a Democrat Congress)...
    ... and Democrats ran it up from $10T to $17T.

    Everything liberals blame on Bush has been done 2X worse by Obama.

    Talk about brainless, its Democrats who have pushed crony socialist payoffs to corporate pals and wall street gave Obama more money than anyone else. It worked.
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Selling Continues But Winter Has Not Yet Begun [View article]
    Lower crude prices may be hurting NG because impact on crimping LNG exports?
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    Not a bubble in that the long-term fundamental case for EVs is strong.

    Whether it's worth paying $30B now for that is whether it's a 'bubble' or not. Tesla could be Yahoo circa 1999, a truly valuable company, but one whose stock price has priced in more success that it will achieve. Or it could be like other growth stocks that look overpriced for a decade but keep levitating while they grow (think salesforce.com).

    I shorted a number of companies back in those days, made a killing shorting the internet bubble. Tried shorting Tesla briefly last year, and regretted it. It's not a POS company, it's got real product, real sales, and real growth. Not a good short.

    Since it's way overpriced in my book, it's not a good long either.
    Nov 16, 2014. 09:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    Actually hydrogen is usually made from methane.

    hydrogen is a bad fuel form, and fuel cells are inferior to ICEs for transport in cost, size, etc. we are much better off with gasoline, cng, or hybrid/EVs.
    Nov 16, 2014. 08:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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