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Freedoms Truth

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  • A Safe Bet On Volatility [View article]
    No, its more that 80% of the time contango will kill the vxx bet, even if the 'volatility will rise' *IS* right, but not timed right.
    .... we have and will have volatility spikes. the key is when and how big.
    so long as the bull is intacts, all spikes will fade.

    If you could predict the next bear market tho', and when it happens, just buy puts on the S&P.
    Jun 12, 2014. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Wasting Energy On The VIX [View article]
    In the macro sense, yes, since both 2007 and 1999/2000 had rising vol as the market was topping out.

    But ... does the market always do that?
    May 30, 2014. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Wasting Energy On The VIX [View article]
    "The VIX is a reactive, not predictive, indicator."

    Well said. It reacts to the pricing action and price structure of the market. It no more predicts the market than other pricing indicators (which are often helpful but never conclusive).
    May 30, 2014. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Warming "Science"; What Investors Need To Know, Don't Just Trust The "Experts" [View instapost]

    Her link to the above article is here:

    Prof Judith Curry (GaTech is believe) is one of the IPCC co-authors who is not only a bona fide climate scientist but has been enough of a 'luke warmer', insisting on proper scientific caution and acknowledgement of the uncertainties and unknowns, that she is now treated - like other eminent scientists - as an apostate. Kind of like how Roger Pielke jr is treated. He doesnt 'toe the line' on pretending the sky is falling and the earth will burn up.

    Yet the real perspective is simply being scientifically honest as possible. Those who have a problem with it (like Mann et al) has another agenda and it isnt truth.

    Her blog is one of the best blogs on the subject out there.
    May 30, 2014. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Opportunity In The VIX [View article]
    " it might be time for the old -1x the front month and +1.5x the back month."

    Explain: Is the 'back month' 9 months out?
    what's the goal? Is the back month just a part of a spread position?
    May 30, 2014. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rare Opportunity To Profit From Volatility [View article]
    "As the futures close today, I'm reminded of another trader who put $8m on May VIX options at $20 and $22. It made news on this site. I checked the price that day, and they were going for $2-$2.30. Today they are expiring worthless."

    True, but that may have been a hedge. Losing in total return but gaining in risk reduction and variability reduction is a winner wrt Sharpe ratio and a valid strategy for large institutional investors trying not to lose big in a bear or correction. That trader might not have minded that happening so long as S&P as at alltime high as well.

    I'm more than happy to sell that insurance when the price of it is high enough. Price of vol insurance (aka vix, vix futures, vxx, etc) is kind of low now, which is why the author is proposing his strategy.
    May 23, 2014. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: Early returns point to spring rebound in economy [View news story]
    "My portfolio looks great, long live the Fed and Obama for pulling us out of a catastrophe that could have resulted in a depression similar to the 1930's. "

    This is stupid and absurd. There never was such a risk, less so with dollar dilution ad infinitum and Obama had nothing to do with it anyway.
    You might as well give the invisible anti-zombie shield above our heads credit for stopping the zombie acopalypse.... it's a myth you say? Well, thats the POINT.
    May 22, 2014. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: Early returns point to spring rebound in economy [View news story]
    The myth is that low rates is an economic elixir. More like pushing a rope.
    May 22, 2014. 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    "A recession remains very unlikely in the near term - and that is the source of major market declines."

    While this is true, it is ALSO true that you can have a bear market without a recession.

    I haven't seen a lot of recession calls lately, but I *have* seen plenty of '10% correction' and "bear market" calls.

    Sooner or later, one of them will be right. A good question is guaging the level of risk/probability of such an event/outcome.
    May 18, 2014. 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The VIX Is Not Broken, Contrary To Popular Belief [View article]
    Why is the VIX low? Because HV is even lower!

    The actual premium of VIX to 20day HV, which is in single digits, is at historical levels. So the vix complacency is a reflection of a quiet market.

    The article is correct that these things can (and will change), and the vix rose 10% on yesterday's dump ... but you cant expect to time that any better than timing other market dynamics.
    May 16, 2014. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX And High-Frequency Trading [View article]
    It's a high risk speculation either long OR short. I oughta know, the last 4 days were quite a roller coaster for vxx.
    Apr 16, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX And High-Frequency Trading [View article]
    Total gibberish. In particular:

    "ETF has not tested longer-term support yet, its longer-term channel is very weak, and aside from an intra channel level of support, there are no immediate trading catalysts. A solid trade could come if VXX drops to mid-term support, but that would only be a trade, not an investment."

    TA does NOT matter on this product, its a DERIVATIVE product. Toxic? yes. Amenable to chart analysis? Other than noticing how it tends to go down... not really.

    Comments about the 'contango' btw, vxx has held up ok this year in part because contango has NOT been severe.
    Apr 16, 2014. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory [View article]
    "Rick Perry 2016"

    Yes, getting Tesla would be a capstone to Perry's 14 year (mostly successful) quest to win more business and jobs for Texas.
    Apr 6, 2014. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory [View article]
    LOL on the anti-Texas anti-SA comments. San Antonio crooked? drugs and crime? compared to Vegas?!? Oakland?!?

    Texas is a great place to build a car plant, its why Toyota and a number of other car assembly and parts makers have chosen it. Toyota's truck plant is near San Antonio. More car-building in Texas than in any of the other states mentioned. Texas is closer to transit, markets, etc. has good labor pool to run the plant, that plus the pro-business climate make it an easy correct choice to pick Texas.

    Perry is the top Republican in a Republican state, and there is enough of a pro-free-market point of view here that if a change in the law is needed, it will happen. Others notes the pro-Tesla bill passed out of committee last session, likely will get passed next session and signed by Gov Abbott.

    There is another plus in Tesla's pocket, which is that SpaceX wants Texas and Texas wants SpaceX. In other words, there is leverage on both sides to make a deal.

    I'm not as in touch as others as to Tesla's thinking, but it's clear enough that it wouldn't be a bad decision to choose Texas.
    Apr 6, 2014. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone's Betting Big On Coming Volatility; How And Why They Might Be Doing That [View article]
    Bingo. $8 million is big hedge for one individual investor, but who knows what the size of the investor is. with the global market cap now in the 10s of trillions of dollars range, its a tiny amount in the ocean of market liquidity.
    Apr 6, 2014. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment