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Freedoms Truth

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  • The Risk That Should Keep VIX Shorts Up At Night [View article]
    No, which is the odd and frustrating thing.

    You can buy TVIX in an IRA which is way more risky / volatile than a vxx short imho. you can buy xiv too.
    Aug 20 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risk That Should Keep VIX Shorts Up At Night [View article]
    No, my complaint on that article by macro was he mis-stated the returns (based on how he analyzed it), you have much lower returns on average when you properly account for those events that take 90+% of the value off the table (yes, it can make you a millionaire maybe but not a billionaire!). He's got solid analysis in his other articles tho'.
    Aug 20 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash [View article]
    'A simple long position opened on May 29, 2013 would have brought in profits of 38% in less than two and a half months, pretty good investment if you ask me"

    That's not an investment, its a speculation.

    An investment would look for long-term return on capital, and Tesla barely has earnings let alone dividends. This is a pure speculation and the risks of it dropping in price in 2 months and still be overpriced remain real.
    Aug 12 11:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash [View article]
    "Right, They will also be a generation ahead of where they are now; i.e., Tesla is not shooting at a static target. "

    Correct, but I think TSLA is aiming for the wrong target anyway.
    A small engine hybrid will always be more cost-effective and less weight than putting in 200 miles rangine of batteries.

    Tesla had the right approach with a high end car and not compromising on range; they've gotten away with it because the other carmakers are too dumb not to hit the right formula. But the new offer by BMW comes close. Specifically, we need an EV with about 60-80 miles of electric range, and a range extender small-engine for another 200 miles.

    BMW's i3 has a range extender engine that weighs only 100lbs, its a tiny engine, but that's enough for the power needed for highway driving (20KW or so). The i3 foolishly made the tank so small 2.3 gallons (!) its only 100 miles of range, if they made it a mere 6 gallon tank, it would be another 240 miles of range.

    Tesla's platform is battery EV. It's simple and has merits but the negative is the large amount of battery you have to carry around.

    Now that BMW has set the standard with the i3, that weighs 1500lbs less than a Tesla model S. If they tweak the styling, bump up the performance and the range, in an i5 version, it will be a Tesla Model S killer. JMHO.
    Aug 12 11:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Different [View article]
    "Peaked or not, that is truly remarkable."
    Not really. Tesla is a new brand and one of the few in the pure EV space. BMW at 55,000 units/yr means well over half a million on the road. How many Tesla's need to be on the road? The prospective buyers are affluent Prius/EV buyers. And Tesla managed to deliver the highest performing EV (and priced to match). If that market is about 200k cars on the road, then 20k is the peak, but its not surprising that a good fraction of them jumped at the oppty as soon as possible. Affluent techies / EV lovers is a natural early adopter market.

    Tesla's challenge is to get into the mass market, while beating off competition in multiple segments. they can only sell at the 200,000+ level if there are millions of families who end up driving teslas. As of today, that number is about ... 15,000 ?
    Aug 8 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Different [View article]
    "I am of the opinion that forward buying for retail investors is not a good idea, and one should buy based on fundamentals and objectives/strategies."

    Correct.
    It's possible for both of these facts to be true:
    1. Elon Musk is a great entrepreneur and Tesla is an innovative and disruptive company that is making pure EVs a reality.
    2. TSLA is an overpriced stock that has the best-case future already priced in, and under discounts risks and limits of EV market adoption.

    In fact, I am sure both ARE true.

    The thing for me is that Tesla is now 2x the market value of Fiat, which currently owns over a dozen brands, parts of BMW, all of Chrysler, Lamborgini, and has about $109B in sales.

    So if Tesla succeeds and grows up and becomes a mass market carmaker, will it have the market cap of a big company like ... Fiat?!? that's a price target of ... $80.
    Aug 8 08:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Not To Trade Volatility ETPs [View article]
    "Don't follow VXV. But, we almost got there, 11.84*1.2 = 14.2, and we hit 13.9 today. So tell me more. Why is VXV important?"

    VXV is the 3month version of vix/volatility, so it could be another 'complacency with low contango' measure to look at when its low, because when its low the vix futures out months go low too. But he also said "in the past year". It is certainly true that vix since 2009 would hit a low level and bounce off it invariably within 30 days ... back in 2010 and 2011 that 'low' was 15. Now its ... 12? 11? I think if the looked back to 2004 it would confirm/deny the utility of this metric a bit more, because 2004-2007 was a period when vix 10-15 levels were more common.

    This is a good article. Good food for thought. It raises a lot of questions, for example - if vxx/vix is below or above the 10DMA or 20DMA what happens? Does that help create some correlation useful for trading guidance? ... but that's grist for another article. :)
    Aug 7 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Not To Trade Volatility ETPs [View article]
    " On average, over a week VXX is going to lose ~1.4%, and over two weeks ~4.1%."

    I am puzzling over this one. Why would it not be about 2X the return if its 2X the time period? Math error or something more interesting? If the latter, it would have to do with the variability around that return (sigma). I'd have to check but I recall looking at how the variability of returns persists for a long time.
    Would you be willing to 'share your work' to check into this?
    Aug 7 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Trade Secrets Will Win Big [View article]
    "Now, on top of all that, you have a little thing called climate change which is getting get real serious real fast"

    No its not. flat temperatures for 15 years now.... time to stop buying the hype on that.
    Aug 7 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    Is that a real quote? LOL.
    Aug 6 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    "Tesla has many competitors including the Volt. Here's an owner that owns both's view of the two cars: http://bit.ly/11gCBrh "

    This is the most useful review of these cars I have seen ever.

    "In terms of ultimate utility, the elephant in the garage is the Tesla's limited range and slow "refueling" time. Until the Tesla Supercharger quick-charging-station system is fully in place, the Model S simply doesn't work for me on trips more than 180 miles. ...

    Why not just plug in at my friend's house? No way: To charge the Tesla's 60-kWh battery fully from a standard 110-Volt outlet takes two full days.

    So my trip was a no-brainer: Take the Volt.

    In three months of Tesla ownership, I've now made four trips where I had to take the Volt."

    Real-world usage, not fanBoy boosting, leads to the inevitable conclusion that BEVs are not ready for long-trip driving.
    Aug 6 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    "everyone compares Tesla to the Volt, but that is a plug in hybrid, NOT an All Electric car."

    So what? This is the most meaningless thing to most users. They dont care whats under the hood, they care that it gets them where they want to go.

    Plugin hybrids are a superior consumer option. Its a BENEFIT to have 2 fueling choices because if you are on the road, you can fill er up and not worry if there is some special charge station on the route. zero range anxiety. Our vacation trip we cared if a station was right on highway or a mere .5 miles off it. Well guess what - the electric infrastructure is such that tesla will need its charging stations in industrial parks, way off the beaten path of highways. It wont be convenient. Sounds nice, but reality wont match it.

    Frankly, I would love to have a luxury EV that is a plug-in electric, and electrify most of my driving, but it'll definitely be a plug-in hybrid, not a BEV. that's a no-compromises solution for many consumers.

    BMW i3 had the right idea with the 100 mile electric range plus range-extender, but they foolishly made the gas tank too small. 2.3 gallons! if they made it 10 gallons, it would be a range of 400 miles!

    Big deal if Tesla has 250 miles worth of heavy batteries. 200 miles of it is dead weight for most trips and less useful than a range-extender gas engine when its needed. Those plug-in hybrids you denigrate still have 70% or more of their miles electric for most users.

    The only merit to the Tesla approach is 'less complexity', but in fact a motorcycle-sized engine hooked to a serial hybrid is simple, not high cost ($2-3k), and less heavy than those batteries, and will likely remain so for at least 10 more years.

    today hybrids outsell the BEVs by 10 to 1. The BEV segment will be a niche within the EV market and remain smaller than hybrid market for the next 10 years, and in coming years competitors to Tesla (Nissan, GM, BMW, Ford, Toyota, MB, etc) will have adapted to serve both markets.
    Aug 6 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    They no longer have any subsidies"
    False. there is a $7500 federal tax credit for buying these EVs. tesla made money on cali ZEV credits too.

    Sooner or later the govt is going to realize that subsidizing cars that DONT PAY ROAD MAINTENANCE TAXES (via gasoline taxes) is unmaintainable (pun intended). Those credits will have to go away.
    Aug 6 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    "I believe Tesla has the potential to be majorly disruptive if they can sell a car with 250+ range that competes with the BMW 3 series. Given battery tech projections this is possible."

    There is a car already that has 250+ range and is plug-in electric, the Chevy Volt. Lots of other plug-in hybrids out there.

    That same battery tech will be available to other carmakers as well. So it will expand the EV space but not leave it all to one company.
    Aug 6 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    Classic story stock.
    On average, the stories dont end well.
    Aug 6 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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