Freedoms Truth

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Verdict Still Pending On Earnings  [View article]
    Excellent commentary.

    Predictions long or short are easy to make. That's why so many are made. Explaining correctly how and WHY the market will behave in the future in near-impossible. The best retort is: If you are so right about the market, why aren't you Soros-level rich?

    There are structural imbalances in the global economy, but the perma-bears wrongly assume that means the economy is a jalopy headed for breakdown. Nope, we are more like a supertanker with barnacles on it and some holes in the hull. Patch em up and we wont sink.

    Jeff's commentary is often a good counterpart to often overheated claims, but the day it becomes an excuse for complacency is the day the bulls days are numbered. And lambasting someone else's predictions doesnt make for more informed commentary.
    Jul 19, 2015. 04:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales  [View article]
    The falcon wings mean I can't park it in the garage. They are actually a 'cool' impracticality. Like many things 'cool' it really means "different than the ordinary practical thing that's been done before" (ie sliding doors like on mininvans, or side opening doors).
    Jul 19, 2015. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview Of Electric Car Announcements At Frankfurt Auto Show  [View article]
    The elephant in the room is Toyota. Once an EV leader with the Prius, they are still on their hydrogen / FCEV kick, and seem to be missing the boat on BEVs and PHEVs.
    Jul 19, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales  [View article]
    A better way to ask:
    If you had a 20 mile track, which would win?
    How soon does the model S go into 'limp' mode?
    Jul 19, 2015. 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Model S Announcement: No Comfort On X Ramp Or 2015 Sales  [View article]
    Finally, I come to understand why the revenue / SA article ratio is higher with TSLA than any other stock.

    An over-followed, over-priced, over-analyzed stock indeed.
    Jul 19, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: July 16, 2015 Update  [View article]
    I read an article in 1988 warning us that demographics and entitlements were going to bankrupt us.

    Still hasnt happened.

    Wonder how long, for how many decades, the Romans were muttering about those danged barbarians who would end their empire ... gee, it took about 100 years or so, so for 90 years or so the Pollyanna's were 'right'.
    Jul 19, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Consequences Of The (Eurozone) Peace  [View article]
    "but also won the backing of 70% of the population for his handling of the negotiations. Say what you will about the seemingly inept performance of the Tsipras team during the negotiations - the man does have his finger on the pulse of his country. "

    I'm convinced greeks are absurd fantasists.
    1. They voted for Syriza on the fantasy platform that a bunch of leftists hurling insults at bankers would get them better terms from the same bankers.
    2. When that didnt work, Tsipras decided, at the 11th hour, NOT to accept the one final deal needed to keep them in the Euro.
    3. Then hell broke loose when Tsipras called a referendum on it. Remarkably, 60% of the Greeks voted 'no' even though 'no' really meant 'leave the euro' but most Greeks both want to stay in the Euro and give the creditors who gave them bailouts the middle finger.
    4. Then, amazingly, after the 'no' vote, Tsipras all but repudiates the result of the 'no' vote by actually agreeing to terms no better than he rejected 2 weeks prior.
    Huh? Oh, but that was after banks were closed for 1 week, and after 6 months of uncertainty.

    In the end, Tsipras has only made Greece's situation far worse. The 6 months of uncertainty has dragged their economy lower, the terms remain harsh, the debt unsustainable, and the very policies Tsipras wants - more taxes and mroe spending - are the opposite of what the Greek economy needs. They need drastic cuts in public sector spending, tax CUTS, a debt moratorium, and a path to employment for all Greeks. Dont tell the IMF; on this score, the Greeks have a point. Raising taxes on an economy flat on its back only makes things worse.

    The ultimate contradiction is that Greeks want aid but not the austerity program that come with it. They continued to believe the impossible, but then when their PM finally relents to reality, they cheer him for it, despite his wasting everyone's time.
    Jul 19, 2015. 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Come On, Let's Face It, Linn Energy Is A Steal At $9  [View article]
    Your risk is limited to a divvie cut that occurs due to inability to cover dividends.
    Doubling down on losers is a path to the poorhouse.
    Jul 19, 2015. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Cements Credentials As A Long-Term Stock  [View article]
    Former EXC holder as well.

    One of their problems is that the fleet of nuclear plants was a brilliant move in the 2000s as the nuclear renaissance, high fossil fuel prices and threat of carbon regs seems to convey a shift to nuclear, but then low natural gas prices have upended economics of power plants.

    Obama admin has put in CO2 regs that's a 'kill coal' plan that favors natural gas plants (and insanely insists on peaker plants having higher utilization, hurting grid capacity) but does little to help utilities nor nuclear industry. Obama's Yucca decision and other decisions have been hostile to nuclear.

    Despite that, the nuclear fleet is a long-term asset for EXC. These nuclear plants could and should be run for a lot longer. Closing them is killing assets.
    Jul 18, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Will Be Resolved And VXX Will Tank Once More  [View article]
    Yes, USA taxpayers fund IMF which runs their 'bailouts' that keep the global credit system flowing.
    Jul 13, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete?  [View article]
    There are 30 global automobile manufacturers in a ruthless global competitive market. You dont use the word 'monopoly' properly.
    Jun 16, 2015. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Still Heading The Wrong Way  [View article]
    "But I DO want it to go higher. "

    So you can short it later? lol.

    A lot of SA talk on just one (rather overpriced market-wise but interesting) company.

    TSLA has the highest SA article count vs revenues ratios of any stock.
    Jun 16, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete?  [View article]
    If you cant drive it off the dealer parking lot today, that doesnt count.
    If its 3 years from reveal to actual consumer use, then we are talking 2018 or 2019 when model 3 will be actually on the road.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Volatility And The Roll Yield Contribute To The Price Action Of VXX In Different Market Environments  [View article]
    Storage cost? Volatility has 'storage cost'? There's a different way to look at it!

    Actually, your point is a simplification and it's such simplifications that make for pointless semantic debate. I appreciate Mr Easter putting precision and quantification on what's going on. Pedantic but accurate beats simplistic explanations.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla's Model 3 Compete?  [View article]
    "the Nissan leaf which is smaller car than Model 3 consumes 250W per mile "

    True. 280wpm x 200 mi range = 56kwh. That's my guess.

    Not only that but the cost and weight estimates are optimistic. I'd be loathe to estimate a specific number other that what is doable today, because it's a moving target, ie price points may be unrealistic for 2017 but doable for 2022.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment