Freedoms Truth

Our Current Economic Illusions

"Problem is, this regime has been blamed for talking down the "robust" recovery ...for politcal reasons."

Which is exactly what they did. They needed to overstate the danger, in order to sell their bogus 'solution'. Meanwhile, the inexorable workings of the economy would go through the recession-recovery cycle anyway.

" The regime has always maintained at least from what I hear them say, that things were going to get worse before better."

That's akin to predicting the rising of the sun in the East.

No, the REAL bogus statistics the Obama admin/Regime are peddling are the 'jobs saved' numbers. We now know many of those numbers are beyond bogus - they listed jobs 'saved' in Congressional districts that dont even exist!

Our Current Economic Illusions

"stimulus money that is mostly tax cuts"
Wrong. the 'stimulus' was really a local/state govt spending bailout and was mostly Government spending. That's one reason why it was so ineffective.

Our Current Economic Illusions

AxIt - "dear republicans I'm so sorry for you that your loved GOP terribly messed up things in the last decade"

Dear political Partisan: Ahem, private sector employment is down about 7 million since Nancy Pelosi became speaker of the House in Jan 2007.

In accusing others of putting a political prism on things, you are PROJECTING.

AxIT: "and now under the dems things are improving."
Employment, GDP, value of dollar, and deficit/debt, are all worse than when Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats took Congress.

"It must hurt, but you have to live with this."

We will be going another 6 years before the economy recovers to have employment as low as it was under the Republican Congress. It must hurt, but you have to live with the consequence of your own BS. You've put a bunch of clowns in charge of the economy, and the consequences are lower growth, higher deficits and higher unemployment for as long as the Democrats remain in charge.

The Economic Recovery That Isn't

Schiff's focus on JOBS is well-placed. What is as bad as the jobs report is the average workweek, and looking at the fact that our economy is currently putting the total amount of hours that was put it back in 2002 - is that the path to a growing economy?


The first step on the road to long-term recovery is to stop killing jobs with bad Government policies. Will the Obama/Democrat zeal to socialize healthcare careen our nation on a path to inevitable fiscal ruin as the taxes and mandates just kill future jobs?

Now comes crunch time in DC. If this is passed, USA's economic pre-eminence will be history. Save America's economy, Stop ObamaCare!

Sentiment Overview: Surprising Increase in Optimism

There is One and only One Major leading economic indicator that owerwhelms all others right now... Will the Obama/Democrat zeal to socialize healthcare careen our nation on a path to inevitabl fiscal ruin. The markets have perked up on ever Obama setback, and fell back when ObamaCare advanced.

Now comes crunch time. If this is passed, USA's economic pre-eminence will be history. Save America's economy, Stop ObamaCare.

This Recession Ain’t Over

"Why do writers seldom talk about what it would take to get this economy back on a healthy road? Like a smaller and less intrusive and controlling federal government. Like lower taxes. Like eliminating many rules, regulations and laws that prevent the private sector from doing it's job. It is the private sector that creates new businesses and new jobs. It is the private sector that keeps the government sector afloat. Yet the public sector does all it can to stifle that sector. Makes no sense to me. "

You have awesome ideas ... but ... So long as Obama and the Democrat are in charge of Washington DC, their approach will be the opposite of that. They are about to destroy healthcare innovation for the next generation *AND* tee us up for massive new taxes and the destruction of state budgets, all in one fell swoop.

So proposing doing that is a bit like trying to round up virgins in a whorehouse. It might be fun, but it's an exercise unlikely to succeed.

Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'

" The USA is suffering from crony capitalism."

I hear ya. The news today:

AIG director named to Obama task force
www.freerepublic.com/f...

www.freerepublic.com/f...
bailout benefitting exec (Goldman Sachs) gave the max to Obama's 2010 Senate campaign in Dec.

www.freerepublic.com/f...
Cali Democrats in lege putting friends and family on lege payroll
"At least a dozen political allies, relatives and friends of legislators, including political candidates in need of a salaried landing or launch pad between elections, were on the legislative roster last year at a cost of $754,000."

www.freerepublic.com/f...
The Obama administration rejected a Tribune request under the Freedom of Information Act to review Freddie Mac board minutes and correspondence during Emanuel’s time as a director.

www.freerepublic.com/f...
Another high-ranking official in the Obama administration has had to leave his position, and in this case, one has to wonder how he got the job in the first place. Scott Polakoff, the top bank regulator for the Treasury, has taken a leave of absence after internal audits uncovered his allowance of backdated capital infusions, which could amount to cooking the books for IndyMac and other institutions. But the OTS chief had also been responsible for regulating AIG as well..


...AND SO IT GOES, using the taxpaying wealth-producers funds to help the politically connected.

Marc Faber: 'It Will All End in Disaster'

"> The Hoover administration practiced Austrian economics ("laissez
> faire approach to the economy")."

Completely wrong view, and a myth the socialists and Democrats like to spread. Anyone who repeats this myth just shows their ignroance. Hoover raised taxes (increasing high end tax ratesfrom 25% to over 60%), raised tariffs, and ramped up spending. It only made the economy worse.
FDR in 1932 ran on balancing the budget(!!), although he ended up increasing deficits and budgets massively. It too failed economically, but worked politically by creating a Govt-spending-dependent class of voters.

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

"If there's any upside to this recession, it's that we won't have to put up with all those house flipping shows on t.v where complete morons made a whack of cash just because they woke up that morning."

Uh, they've been replaced by " buy foreclosure" infomercials and 'buy gold' ads.

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

"Most bottoms occur when no one thinks it is. "

A marvelous self-refuting comment. It's tough being a contrarian bear when bearishness is rampant.

I thought November was the bottom, but when it when below 7200, everyone just cr*ppped, thinking "where is the bottom?" As of today we are above several levels of support from that bottom.
We may retrace, but then again buy a company at single digit PE that will survive until 2011 without going BK and you'll have a winner.

It is probably a good time to buy if and when it retraces.

Risk Aversion Expected Until Tuesday's Inauguration

"They will move from sector to sector (i.e. - alt. energy, infrastructure, etc.). Get ready and take your profits and wait for the next wave. "

True. I held some TXI that was suffering due to earnings but got bid up in Dec on infrastructure hopes. sold it in mid-30s. Now it is mid-20s.

Will There Be an Obama Bounce?

"This article does nothing for an investor."

Yeah, well, neither will Obama. An empty suit article for the empty suit President.

Carter's swear-in day results in 1977 were -1%. Obama is another Carter. We might do the same tomorrow.

Risk Aversion Expected Until Tuesday's Inauguration

Actually, the first Obama bounce happened in September and October when it became clear who the next president would be."

The REALLY first 'bounce' was when the market reacted to the Iowa caucus results a year ago. Huckabee and Obama?!? That should have been a sign to pay attention to!

Risk Aversion Expected Until Tuesday's Inauguration

"The only bounceable events this coming week would be a final vote in Congress on some specific measure like a tax cut."

Egads, Speaker Pelosi is on the record for wanting massive tax hikes NOW. Want a bounce? the day she is deposed the market will bounce up 10%! In the meantime, you will see the market trade DOWN on votes.

The more I hear about an "obama bounce" the more I want to get out of the market. Actually, I am long and believe the market is undervalued, but the obama-mania is just too much.It's lunacy, he is bringing bad policies that will hurt the market, the economy and businesses. And if you think otherwise, just step away from the punch bowl and PUT THE KOOLAID DOWN.

CMBS Delinquencies Rise: Should the Government Step In?

"Until recently, this rate of delinquencies has had limited impact on the $800 billion commercial mortgage backed security market (CMBS)."

Either you are thinking of some different impact than I am or I dont buy this AT ALL. It contradicts your spread chart as obviously the credit markets and CMBS conduit markets have dried up and spreads are super-wide. Now in fact this has been going on since last year. I was getting conduit loan quotes 18 months ago of 185bps for 80% LTV loans and now such loans do not exist. They havent since fall 2007. What it means for commercial real-estate buyers is lower LTV loans and go to banks for loans. I dont doubt that delinquencies and foreclosures will rise, especially in retail. But it surely looks like this rates of foreclosure are more than priced in, when debt is at 75% for an average 70%, you are buying debt at little more than half the asset value, and you are buying debtors in a different level from homebuyers. Since commercial RE didnt have much of a bubble to start with, you really have priced in most of the downside already.

It also is wrong to imagine that Government intervention is needed, useful or helpful. Why? To prop up CBMS assets? To revive a conduit market that has been dormant since 2007 anyway? Again, why? Govt cant get cap rates down without helping the 'risk economy'. If Government wanted to do some good, it should allow for accelerated depreciation and lower cap gains tax rates. That would revive asset values at near zero long-term cost to Government. Such thinking is alien to the socialists running the Federal Govt right now. The only reason to buy CBMS paper right now by the Govt that I can think of is the fact that it is probably undervalued given the asset numbers I mention above.