Charlie Stromeyer Jr's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/26872/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/87925-on-ben-graham-bank-stocks-jason-zweig-and-tom-brown?source=feed#comment-218188 218188
A popular trade in Brazil about a month ago was to go long the preferred shares of Petrobras while simultaneously shorting the common shares. This was a very successful trade, but would it qualify as a "related hedge"? Thanks.

Disclosure: I engage in related hedging, trading Brazilian equities, and am long many financial companies but few here in the U.S.]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 08:51:36 -0400
A popular trade in Brazil about a month ago was to go long the preferred shares of Petrobras while simultaneously shorting the common shares. This was a very successful trade, but would it qualify as a "related hedge"? Thanks.

Disclosure: I engage in related hedging, trading Brazilian equities, and am long many financial companies but few here in the U.S.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87677-stock-vs-bond-valuations?source=feed#comment-218125 218125
Note that over long periods of time in the U.S. economy that the headline rate of inflation has converged towards the core rate.

Disclosure: short 10 year Treasuries since a yield of 3.52]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 08:04:06 -0400
Note that over long periods of time in the U.S. economy that the headline rate of inflation has converged towards the core rate.

Disclosure: short 10 year Treasuries since a yield of 3.52]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-218110 218110 Wed, 30 Jul 2008 07:45:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-217668 217668 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:14:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87597-covered-bonds-are-indeed-covered-by-you?source=feed#comment-217653 217653
Disclosure: long precious metals and related equities.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:03:19 -0400
Disclosure: long precious metals and related equities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87720-about-that-silver-lining-erin?source=feed#comment-217648 217648 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:58:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87537-the-science-of-monetary-policy?source=feed#comment-217484 217484
For example, since WWII there have been double blind (often placebo controlled) experiments in medicine, but such experiments are not possible in economics.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:02:33 -0400
For example, since WWII there have been double blind (often placebo controlled) experiments in medicine, but such experiments are not possible in economics.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87598-taylor-rules-exchange-rates-and-speculation-about-the-dollar-euro-rate?source=feed#comment-217467 217467
www.econbrowser.com/ar...

Thanks.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:52:47 -0400
www.econbrowser.com/ar...

Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87677-stock-vs-bond-valuations?source=feed#comment-217448 217448
Thanks.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:42:19 -0400
Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87651-all-about-covered-bonds?source=feed#comment-217431 217431
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Thanks.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:29:22 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87597-covered-bonds-are-indeed-covered-by-you?source=feed#comment-217424 217424 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:26:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87331-jason-zweig-on-graham-and-bank-stocks-the-un-intelligent-investor?source=feed#comment-217353 217353
www.frbsf.org/publicat...
]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 10:32:18 -0400
www.frbsf.org/publicat...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86180-financials-how-and-when-we-reached-the-bottom?source=feed#comment-217312 217312
Disclosure: One of the board members of a company that I advise is a manager at State Street in Boston.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:56:27 -0400
Disclosure: One of the board members of a company that I advise is a manager at State Street in Boston.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87645-beware-the-covered-bonds?source=feed#comment-217300 217300
seekingalpha.com/artic...
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seekingalpha.com/artic...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-217290 217290
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Note that Barrons is often a useful contrary indicator.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:42:23 -0400
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Note that Barrons is often a useful contrary indicator.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87644-has-merrill-survived-the-current-crisis-analysts-weigh-in?source=feed#comment-217281 217281
Disclosure: no position of any kind in MER.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:36:21 -0400
Disclosure: no position of any kind in MER.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87597-covered-bonds-are-indeed-covered-by-you?source=feed#comment-217273 217273
Disclosure: I became an Independent 12 years ago because I was fed up with the incompetence of both Republicans and Democrats, but I now support Obama because we don't need a third term of Bush!]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:29:54 -0400
Disclosure: I became an Independent 12 years ago because I was fed up with the incompetence of both Republicans and Democrats, but I now support Obama because we don't need a third term of Bush!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87584-merrill-cleanses-itself-we-think?source=feed#comment-217265 217265
Disclosure: no current positions of any kind in either MER nor CDOs.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:22:38 -0400
Disclosure: no current positions of any kind in either MER nor CDOs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87546-energy-recovery-devices-offers-unique-product-in-solid-global-growth-sector?source=feed#comment-217260 217260
Disclosure: long various equities involved in the global water industries, and will also be adding this one to my watch list. ]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:17:46 -0400
Disclosure: long various equities involved in the global water industries, and will also be adding this one to my watch list. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87597-covered-bonds-are-indeed-covered-by-you?source=feed#comment-217251 217251
Note that Hank Paulson is not a real economist, but he ought to learn at least something about economics before he opens his big yap!

Disclosure: No current positions in any covered bonds.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:13:47 -0400
Note that Hank Paulson is not a real economist, but he ought to learn at least something about economics before he opens his big yap!

Disclosure: No current positions in any covered bonds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-217224 217224
www.economist.com/spec...
]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:00:34 -0400
www.economist.com/spec...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87551-bespoke-s-financial-cds-index?source=feed#comment-217213 217213
Disclosure: No current positions in either CDSs nor CDOs.]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 08:49:49 -0400
Disclosure: No current positions in either CDSs nor CDOs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87473-yes-financial-companies-can-be-analyzed?source=feed#comment-216981 216981
64.233.169.104/search?...

I assume that this is still the case today.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 20:53:49 -0400
64.233.169.104/search?...

I assume that this is still the case today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87473-yes-financial-companies-can-be-analyzed?source=feed#comment-216939 216939
Also, I agree with Jimmy Lathrop that the financials cannot make a convincing long term bottom until there is clearer evidence that national home prices have begun to stabilize.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 19:38:10 -0400
Also, I agree with Jimmy Lathrop that the financials cannot make a convincing long term bottom until there is clearer evidence that national home prices have begun to stabilize.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87473-yes-financial-companies-can-be-analyzed?source=feed#comment-216809 216809
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Remember that the Warren Buffett whom Tom refers to called derivatives (especially credit derivatives) "financial weapons of mass destruction" back in 2002, and boy was Buffett correct!

Also, I agree with Tom Brown that Graham would not have shied away from trying to analyze the current situation. There are still many great financial firms to invest in but not that many here in the U.S. (although there are a few).]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 16:41:36 -0400
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Remember that the Warren Buffett whom Tom refers to called derivatives (especially credit derivatives) "financial weapons of mass destruction" back in 2002, and boy was Buffett correct!

Also, I agree with Tom Brown that Graham would not have shied away from trying to analyze the current situation. There are still many great financial firms to invest in but not that many here in the U.S. (although there are a few).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-216771 216771
Historically, the price-to-rent ratio is still too high.


]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:54:48 -0400
Historically, the price-to-rent ratio is still too high.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70003-how-will-the-housing-crisis-end?source=feed#comment-216570 216570
seekingalpha.com/artic...
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seekingalpha.com/artic...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87390-housing-no-bottom-yet-in-sight?source=feed#comment-216559 216559
1) The futures on housing prices point to further downside.

2) The run-up in housing starts from 1991-2006 is much longer than any other recent run-ups in housing starts, and so the correction might also be longer.

3) Unlike the other recent housing busts, this current bust began in relatively good economic times.

4) According to Goldman Sachs, home price trends tend to lag an average of 9-12 months behind sales trends, (and 9-12 months is a very long time indeed during a massive credit crunch).

5) National home prices have not yet mean reverted to their long term trend line.

6) If the Federal Government ends up having to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac then mortgage rates could rise by about .5 percentage point.

7) The peak years for higher resets of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) will be 2010-11.

8) There is probably a great deal of "shadow inventory" waiting for the "right" time to sale.

Disclosure: still short U.S. home prices.

]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 12:00:54 -0400
1) The futures on housing prices point to further downside.

2) The run-up in housing starts from 1991-2006 is much longer than any other recent run-ups in housing starts, and so the correction might also be longer.

3) Unlike the other recent housing busts, this current bust began in relatively good economic times.

4) According to Goldman Sachs, home price trends tend to lag an average of 9-12 months behind sales trends, (and 9-12 months is a very long time indeed during a massive credit crunch).

5) National home prices have not yet mean reverted to their long term trend line.

6) If the Federal Government ends up having to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac then mortgage rates could rise by about .5 percentage point.

7) The peak years for higher resets of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) will be 2010-11.

8) There is probably a great deal of "shadow inventory" waiting for the "right" time to sale.

Disclosure: still short U.S. home prices.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87332-things-that-go-boom-in-the-night-semgroup-energy?source=feed#comment-216362 216362
Disclosure: short crude since 145.2 but will reevaluate my short position if crude gets down to the low 120s again.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 09:30:17 -0400
Disclosure: short crude since 145.2 but will reevaluate my short position if crude gets down to the low 120s again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87331-jason-zweig-on-graham-and-bank-stocks-the-un-intelligent-investor?source=feed#comment-216336 216336 CDS) market doubled in size every year from 2000 to 2007 (which doesn't include the growth of the total collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market.)]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 09:13:34 -0400 CDS) market doubled in size every year from 2000 to 2007 (which doesn't include the growth of the total collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market.)]]>