johnny inca's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/268871/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178232-deep-value-shopping-season-part-i?source=feed#comment-808092 808092
There is a lot of mispricing in the preferred spaces these days. AEH, which is an Aegon perpetual, is still trading at or near 16, even though the chances of it defaulting are 0.0% (IMHO). AKT is trading between 5-6 even though ABK could go BK next year (according to their 10Q). MPG-A seems very cheap relative to AKT but somewhat expense relative to AEH. It's a weird market.]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 09:05:59 -0500
There is a lot of mispricing in the preferred spaces these days. AEH, which is an Aegon perpetual, is still trading at or near 16, even though the chances of it defaulting are 0.0% (IMHO). AKT is trading between 5-6 even though ABK could go BK next year (according to their 10Q). MPG-A seems very cheap relative to AKT but somewhat expense relative to AEH. It's a weird market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178232-deep-value-shopping-season-part-i?source=feed#comment-807565 807565 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:08:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/178232-deep-value-shopping-season-part-i?source=feed#comment-806791 806791 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:20:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175421-why-i-m-starting-a-stake-in-assured-guaranty?source=feed#comment-788057 788057
It is exactly this kind of thinking that has MBIA at the $4 a share level. People don't know what they have, and are waiting for a sure thing / clarity. If / when it arrives MBI will already be at $15, and those who waited will have missed the main boat ride.

Instead of buying assured and hoping it falls (?) the best risk reward play is to just buy MBIA and roll the dice.]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:56:47 -0500
It is exactly this kind of thinking that has MBIA at the $4 a share level. People don't know what they have, and are waiting for a sure thing / clarity. If / when it arrives MBI will already be at $15, and those who waited will have missed the main boat ride.

Instead of buying assured and hoping it falls (?) the best risk reward play is to just buy MBIA and roll the dice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175827-playing-the-steel-upgrade-with-etfs?source=feed#comment-784071 784071 Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:19:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37320?source=feed#comment-784070 784070
For those of you interested in steel stocks, check out chinese steel maker GSI, which is trading at 4x forward earnings.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 07:17:42 -0500
For those of you interested in steel stocks, check out chinese steel maker GSI, which is trading at 4x forward earnings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/36950?source=feed#comment-770920 770920 Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:35:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174164-mbia-tax-arcana?source=feed#comment-768303 768303
I know they did buy back some debt but frankly it is trivial size compared to the obligations they insure.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:53:47 -0500
I know they did buy back some debt but frankly it is trivial size compared to the obligations they insure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174164-mbia-tax-arcana?source=feed#comment-767687 767687 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:00:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161985-why-is-vivus-diluting-existing-shareholders?source=feed#comment-697049 697049
The better prepared they are to work w/o anyone else's money the better the buyout offers will be when they finally come.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:20:56 -0400
The better prepared they are to work w/o anyone else's money the better the buyout offers will be when they finally come.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160833-vivus-s-qnexa-drug-approval-makes-it-a-nice-trade?source=feed#comment-679538 679538 Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:48:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160833-vivus-s-qnexa-drug-approval-makes-it-a-nice-trade?source=feed#comment-670002 670002
I am sorry but what precisely does this mean? Saying something is a "nice trade" w/o any further clarification is pretty useless.]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:50:57 -0400
I am sorry but what precisely does this mean? Saying something is a "nice trade" w/o any further clarification is pretty useless.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158117-struggling-with-divergences?source=feed#comment-645085 645085 Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:50:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153703-earnings-preview-mbia?source=feed#comment-616025 616025
If the legal proceedings ever get any legs, watch out.]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 09:23:58 -0400
If the legal proceedings ever get any legs, watch out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153596-expect-big-improvements-in-these-three-chinese-steel-companies?source=feed#comment-615090 615090 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:10:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/152423-everybody-hates-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-608411 608411 Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:43:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/152423-everybody-hates-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-607643 607643
FAS and FAZ are the gifts that just keep on giving!]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 07:58:34 -0400
FAS and FAZ are the gifts that just keep on giving!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149879-the-great-credit-crunch-continues-unabated?source=feed#comment-595424 595424 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:33:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148070-direxion-s-leveraged-etfs-triple-the-risk?source=feed#comment-589525 589525 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:59:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148070-direxion-s-leveraged-etfs-triple-the-risk?source=feed#comment-586298 586298 Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:37:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148070-direxion-s-leveraged-etfs-triple-the-risk?source=feed#comment-581975 581975 Fri, 10 Jul 2009 09:10:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-578829 578829 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:40:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145931-two-consulting-giants-merge-que-pasa?source=feed#comment-566718 566718 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:56:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140426-notable-picks-from-investment-managers-barron-s?source=feed#comment-525056 525056 Sun, 31 May 2009 10:38:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137811-bankers-bond-insurers-suing-each-other?source=feed#comment-507994 507994 Mon, 18 May 2009 08:41:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137811-bankers-bond-insurers-suing-each-other?source=feed#comment-507007 507007
Jeff, I have not seen any of these reports. Which insurer (MBI, ABK, RDN, etc) has defaulted on any coverage?]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 09:16:05 -0400
Jeff, I have not seen any of these reports. Which insurer (MBI, ABK, RDN, etc) has defaulted on any coverage?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124334-hartford-financial-s-risks-and-alternatives?source=feed#comment-423639 423639
That being said, I agree with the $15 price target analysis. Infact, I think it is low.]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:28:06 -0400
That being said, I agree with the $15 price target analysis. Infact, I think it is low.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124794-barron-s-calls-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-418496 418496
I know things can always get worse, but, really?]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 19:22:00 -0400
I know things can always get worse, but, really?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124655-pension-underfunding-the-next-earnings-shock?source=feed#comment-417951 417951
The only government interference at this point is a delaying of the tightening funding requirements set by PPA in 2006.



]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 11:25:01 -0400
The only government interference at this point is a delaying of the tightening funding requirements set by PPA in 2006.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124655-pension-underfunding-the-next-earnings-shock?source=feed#comment-417398 417398
It would also help if you actually knew what you were talking about.

For instance:

>>The median assumed asset return for companies sponsoring US pension plans is 8.0%, and, which is scarier, many companies used expected ROAs in excess of this median in order to keep funding requirements to a minimum (click on chart to enlarge).

Um, no. You are thinking of the FASB's expected return on assets assumption, which is used to determine pension cost under FAS 87. Discount rate setting for federal funding requirements is prescibed by law and is nowhere near 8%.

74.125.47.132/search?q...

This is a very very complicated subject, so please don't presume to speak on technical matters to which you have no training or expertise.

The long story short is that plan sponsors who have suffered investments losses, which is almost all of them, will face increased cash requirements and GAAP / IFRS earings and balance sheet impacts which could be onerous relative to the size of their organization.



]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 16:13:33 -0500
It would also help if you actually knew what you were talking about.

For instance:

>>The median assumed asset return for companies sponsoring US pension plans is 8.0%, and, which is scarier, many companies used expected ROAs in excess of this median in order to keep funding requirements to a minimum (click on chart to enlarge).

Um, no. You are thinking of the FASB's expected return on assets assumption, which is used to determine pension cost under FAS 87. Discount rate setting for federal funding requirements is prescibed by law and is nowhere near 8%.

74.125.47.132/search?q...

This is a very very complicated subject, so please don't presume to speak on technical matters to which you have no training or expertise.

The long story short is that plan sponsors who have suffered investments losses, which is almost all of them, will face increased cash requirements and GAAP / IFRS earings and balance sheet impacts which could be onerous relative to the size of their organization.



]]>