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dhdhoora

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  • Gilead Sciences Is A Safe Harbor From The Market's Recent Volatility [View article]
    There are lots of good SA articles on $TRN - suggest you check them out. Uh, this is supposed to be a discussion on $GILD. (BTW, I'm long and strong on $TRN.)

    With respect to $GILD, few of the articles or commentators give credit to Gilead management. They have continuously built their franchises from both internal science and wise acquisitions. These guys know what they are doing. With lots of cash and rejuvenated HIV offerings and at least another year of practically printing money with Harvoni -- the company will continue to do smart things. This has nothing to do with the charts. That said, they company cannot isolate itself form the wild west market we now have with little underlying correlation to fundamentals...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Has Been Pushing Chicago Bridge & Iron's Shares Down Too Much [View article]
    It takes a decade to site and build LNG facilities. I extremely doubt that the big kids that are behind these projects are going to dump their projects. While LNG prices will remain low due to increase supply, the demand will do nothing but go up as more of the stuff is used for energy production and transportation. Thank goodness that LNG developers are not as stupid as the market.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Turning Profitable In 2016: Evidence From Probabilistic Analysis [View article]
    Thanks Greggg... A lot of LTBH investors have been crushed by $PLUG and the short players have had a field day with the stock. But at the end of the day, looking forward, IMHO, the continued support by Walmart is just too compelling to ignore...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Biotech Digest: CLL Treatment, Gilead CEO Sells, Acelity IPO [View article]
    If you would have taken the time to look at the Form 4 -- you would have seen that this sale was simply a 'flip' of shares awarded on 8/24. Yes, maybe the timing was lousy - but with $420M in shares, I don't think he's losing any sleep over the transaction timing...
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: The Strong Quarter Should Help Silence The Bears [View article]
    sme20 == good for you. You obviously have some understanding of the company and decided to move on. My question is 'why are you bothering to post now?'

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries - An Undervalued Investment [View article]
    Interesting that some are worried about 2019 in a market that has fits in nanoseconds... IMHO, the naysayers and shorts simply used headline risk to punish the stock. We can't build pipelines in this country anymore and clearly the demand for newer, safer rail cars will continue into the foreseeable future -- maybe even beyond 2019!

    Kurt -- great recap on the litigation. But worst case, civil actions drag out for years... maybe even past 2019!!!

    Hey, I'm a LTBH investor -- but I'm not buying or selling with concerns in 2019...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 26, 2015. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Pipeline, Part 3, With Summary Comments [View article]
    Tim Cook in an e-mail to Jim Cramer this morning and read on CNBC, indicated that iPhone sales in China were continuing at a strong pace. They are not experiencing any drop off in demand...

    The China hysteria, IMHO, has been largely manufactured to crash our over-extended markets to the benefit of the the short sellers. Of course, the market way overshot and too many people panicked.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead's Pipeline, Part 3, With Summary Comments [View article]
    Fabulous work Doc!

    I especially appreciate your amazing summary and comments on Gilead's position relative to the Big Kids with respect to 'dry powder' for doing deals. But, like other commenters, hard to argue with Gilead management simply buying up more shares...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Turning Profitable In 2016: Evidence From Probabilistic Analysis [View article]
    ultima70 -- you make a very interesting point. There must be special terms in the leases that make these blue chip companies utilize financing from a tiny outfit like Plug. Hmmm.... Must be some kind of performance kickers, guarantees, that would prohibit regular leasing sources from holding the paper...Hmmm....

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 24, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Turning Profitable In 2016: Evidence From Probabilistic Analysis [View article]
    OK -- how do you explain this from the Plug web site today:

    "Plug Power is currently deploying the GenKey solution in New Caney, TX where 330 GenDrive units will power the entire lift truck fleet. The site is expected to go-live during the third quarter."

    Come on -- the entire fleet is on Plug -- so much for your speculation that "400 is not a viable number". Do you really think Walmart is that stupid to turn over an entire DC to Plug GenKey if they didn't believe in the product? Give me a break...
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power Turning Profitable In 2016: Evidence From Probabilistic Analysis [View article]
    Wow -- this debate is way beyond my pay grade! But, don't we have to give some credit to the major companies that have adopted, and continue to adopt Plug's fuel cell technology? It seems that the major complaint had been hydrogen fueling service -- but the adoption of Plug's Gen Fuel service seems to have calmed that down. While there may indeed be tax incentives, I find it hard to imagine that the likes of Walmart would continue to trust their warehouse logistics to Plug if they were not performing. Also, these companies also have made commitments to green resources -- and no one seems to consider issues like disposal of the old lead acid batteries.

    So, these customers are not being hoodwinked by Plug (maybe investors are), too much water has now gone under the bridge with them and their fuel cell installations.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 17, 2015. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Divergence Of Rig Count, Oil Price And Production Explained [View article]
    Alex - "I think rig counts will always matter"...

    Well maybe not so much in the short run. In the short run, rig counts are probably are a miss-leading indicator of production. Tight oil has over 5,000 wells waiting completion now and new well designs have significant increased production. Also, E&P are focusing on core areas -- pretty much abandoning marginal plays.

    So long term yes, rig counts matter, but maybe not for the next 6 months or so...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: A Close Second [View article]
    @Doyle Publishing...

    I really appreciate you valuation analysis on $TRN -- but more importantly, your side commentary on investing! Your comments are absolutely spot on:

    "If the market has high hopes for a particular company, it will bid shares of that company higher on its optimistic forecasts. If management achieves the optimistic forecasts, the shares will likely not move very much as good news is already baked in. If, as is more likely, a combination of recalcitrant customers, government action, competition etc. conspires against any optimistic forecasts, shares will react quickly and predictably as the market moves from being excessively optimistic to irrationally pessimistic."

    This is about as straightforward of statement of market irrationality as I have ever read! You've certainly earned my 'follow'. As a small-cap biotech and E&P investor -- I know this story all too well...

    I do hold an underweight position in $TRN based on the company's decision not to hold a reserve for litigation expenses.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: STAG Industrial [View article]
    SMM -- thanks for the comments, but I believe that you're missing key differentiation when you compare STAG to VER. From the CEO's remarks during the last CC:
    "One of the things we find interesting about our experience as a public company is the difficulty in getting people to fully understand our differentiated investment theses and operating model. It is probably the assuming nature to seek to categorize and our model may present some challenges to what has been the conventional wisdom.

    So for the record, we view STAG as an industrial operating company, not as a net lease company. Like our industrial operating peers, we're active managers of our assets in order to maintain and enhance cash flow."

    So, IMHO, STAG is not the same puppy as ARCP -- oops VER...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries A Somewhat Compelling Valuation [View article]
    Trinity is compelling even with some pretty sketchy numbers by the author. 4% growth??? Revenues increased 61% in the past 3 years, yet the author only forecast a flat 4% growth for 2016 - 2018? Where did that come from? Nothing historically, or in the company guidance suggests anything like that. The only limits to growth in the oil car biz is production capacity -- look at their backlog. And, the upstream oil industry hasn't really faced the 'what if' they are required to retrofit their existing single liner tank fleet? So, how could one possibly assume 4% linear growth? They will sell every possible oil tanker car they can make for the foreseeable future. But the company also has 4 other divisions that are very much in organic growth mode. 4%? Huh?

    As far as the litigation, the last quarterly report indicated that the company believed that their case was sufficiently strong that they did not need to set aside any contingency. Don't you think the BOD would have insisted on some kind of set-aside if they felt there was a realistic chance of the litigation ultimately going against them? But, the litigation scare gives the short sellers raw meat -- that's why the SP crashed and has yet to recover. Will be under pressure because of that threat -- but even in the worst case of a $660MM settlement, the company is in a position to handle that -- as you mentioned. Shorts are having fun now, but that's what makes a market and makes $TRN an awfully attractive stock for the mid term and long term...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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