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  • Despite Strong Operational Results, Dropping Oil Prices May Kill Lonestar Resources Ltd.  [View article]
    LP -- thanks for the in-depth article. I've owned Lonestar for the past, 1 1/2 years and remain a 'true believer'.

    You point out a lot of positives and some negatives with the name. On key point missed is that Lonestar is 55% owned by EWPO -- a London- based fund specializing in utilities and energy investments. They appear to have a very strong support for the name and also account for reduced liquidity. Also, you fail to consider the strength of Lonestar's management and the BOD -- including John Pinkerton, who basically built Range Resources from zip to big time. IMHO, they are way better than any other junior E&P team.

    But, your negative title on the article seems to be based on your statement:
    "So if oil prices drop to WTI $10 and stay there, this company has had it. "

    If that is the case we have a lot more to worry about than little Lonestar. The world will be engulfed in conflict -- political, economic, and military, and the destruction of the high yield bond holders will spill over into the general credit markets. The US will tumble into deep recession, the stock market will tank more than 50%, and we'll be faced with another 2008. So, if you really believe this, what is the need for any fundamental analysis of Lonestar? If you don't really believe this, then the it looks like your sensationalizing what would otherwise be good work...

    BTW, I'm not suggesting that we'll have a dramatic spike in the price of oil anytime soon. ($30 to $50BOE for the next two years) But,I do believe that the industry is undergoing significant production reductions that will make it hard to recover once the supply/demand curve flips. Maybe late 2017?

    All the very best,
    Don
    Feb 5, 2016. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Growing Revenues, Progress Toward Profitability  [View article]
    Kurt -- very solid article. Henrik has pointed out on a number of occasions on concern/confusion over leasing and restricted cash. He makes valid points and I'm surprised that the call did not address those issues. Cash flow is everything to business and it should trump discussion on revenue growth. I'm also a bit concerned that the market is not prepared for the seasonal Q1 sell-off. The company's revenue forecast chart shows some fall off -- but this strikes me as a place where they could miss again. The 2015 Q1 had a much larger % reduction. Since a lot of production is targeted toward new 'green' facilities, I suspect that many of them are not completed or provisioned during the winter months.

    Anyway, I'm stubbornly long $PLUG and sadly still way under water. I do believe this is oversold and the stock has fallen out of 'favor'. Don't expect any real SP improvement until late 2016...

    ATVB,
    Con
    Feb 3, 2016. 03:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics Under The Microscope  [View article]
    Dr. 10x -- it's no surprise that the Trimesta saga finally came to a crashing burn. What is surprising to me is that even while they pretty much put this on the 'back burner' for the past several quarters, they continued with a P2 for cognitive improvement. What is really shocking to me is just how poorly the drug did -- miserably failing all endpoints. While the release of the topline data some 19 months ago was befuddled, the company papered over the miss. They blathered about several potential partnerships etc for several quarters. Then silence.

    Very interesting to me was the 25% sell-off in the days prior to the the Trimesta termination announcement. Typically, this would interesting to the SEC -- but hey, they probably have bigger fish to fry...

    Synthetic still appears to have two potential blockbuster drugs -- but I'm increasing skeptical of management -- not the scientists...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 3, 2016. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stag Industrial: Is The Sudden CFO Departure A Red Flag?  [View article]
    Elijahu -- could not agree more. This was obviously a crisis departure of the CFO. Maybe bad new ahead? But I've also been chief executive of several non-public companies and speculate that even if there was lack of confidence or some kind of personality clash -- both parties would have worked out some kind of exit plan.

    BTW -- why don't you complete some profile info -- would like to learn more about you -- your comments were very reasoned...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 1, 2016. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital One Is Cheap  [View article]
    COF is using it credit card business to build a mega bank of the future without bricks and mortar...can you say 'disruptive'?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 1, 2016. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview - Keryx Hopes For Second Chance To Make First Impression  [View article]
    @biorep -- where is your territory with Keryx?
    Jan 23, 2016. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview - Keryx Hopes For Second Chance To Make First Impression  [View article]
    @Puche -- yes, you're probably right. Time to move on. Heck, they don't even have an 'investor' presentation on the site any more. I can remember lots of slides showing how Zerenex (oops Auryxia) was better than the other drugs. GM was involved with other drugs in the space. Analysts were pumping. The company absolutely had to know that the clinical studies did not support the anemia claim and that the FDA was going to disallow this on the label. But, instead of coming clean, they suckered us in believing that nephrologists would nevertheless jump on Auryxia with an 'off label' use for anemia. Their cracker jack sales force would see to this...

    But, most of all, I just don't understand the $125M Baupost bailout. He's done a lot better in the market than I have -- why would he 'double down' on this? Does he need more tax loss write offs? Or, knowing that the current product/label is a joke, throw a life line for some chance of recovery in 3 to 4 years with a possibly expanded label?

    I've never, in 40 years of investing, felt so totally miss-led by a company as I feel for Keryx. I'll learn from these painful lessons and move on -- but never, never, never trusting a one trick biotech pony that 'chooses' to go it alone with commercialization. Duh, nobody wanted this -- we retail LTBH numb nuts were taken to the cleaners...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Jan 22, 2016. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Cheap And There's Dirt Cheap  [View article]
    Steved... you sound like an impressive guy. But, honestly, many of us here do not appreciate a hard core pump on a stock that is not related to the article. Nothing against FF -- but it sure looks like you're trying to suck readers into the name.

    Yes, Brad Thomas is one of the best -- but he earned his stripes by not irrationally pumping or bashing any stock -- especially those not related to the conversation.

    May I also suggest that somewhere in your fabled career, you must have missed out on writing skills. You might want to check you bio for typos and of course, consider not intermingling a half of dozen different ideas into a single paragraph... but hey, what do I know?
    Jan 22, 2016. 02:52 PM | 49 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interview - Keryx Hopes For Second Chance To Make First Impression  [View article]
    Congratulations -- I was not so wise listening in 2014 to the analysts that continually touted this as a $22 to $30 stock by EOY 2015.

    Even after the debacle of losing their anemia benefit with the drug approval, and oh yes, having to change the name of the drug weeks before launch, there was a belief that the drug was still a better phosphate binder. Now, it's simply 'one of five' binders that may snag a piece of the new CKD patients. But wait, good news is on the way when the P3 and then FDA approval for anemia in circa late 2017?!!? Then, we'll be all set to have the blockbuster that we were told about for so long -- of course assuming the widely-demonstrated incompetence is wrung out of the company by then...
    Jan 22, 2016. 01:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agenus Gets 2 INDs: Time To Revalue Upward  [View article]
    Agree -- if they really have the best CPM development platform, why wouldn't one of the big guys scoop them up for say $750M to $1B?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Jan 22, 2016. 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synergy Pharmaceuticals: Major Upside Ahead  [View article]
    I hold both Synthetic and Synergy -- but last night's readout from a P2b trial of Synthetic's SYN-010 does not bode well for anyone playing in the IBS-C space. This goes after one of the primary causes of IBS -- methane gas in the gut and seems to be on the way to a potential blockbuster. Importantly, if all goes well, the drug will make it to market not long after plecanatide goes to market. If you're prone to IBS-C, take a daily pill to keep from having to deal with this -- otherwise take plecantatide to flush out your system. Wash, rinse, repeat... So CIC, IBS-C, and IBS-D may all eventually be managed with a prophylactic drug that apparently has few side effects. Hmmm...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Jan 20, 2016. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stag Industrial: Weird Market Meltdown Has Boosted Dividend Yield To More Than 8%  [View article]
    "Manufacturing recession"... possibly. But most of $STAG's buildings are used for warehousing -- many of the goods in the buildings are consumer products etc. Check out their very nicely diversified customer list... You might have a stereotype of small manufacturing occupying Stag's buildings. Not so much...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Jan 20, 2016. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy Q4 output tops guidance; lowers 2016 capex  [View news story]
    This is good news / bad news... My understanding is that most completion requirements will be satisfied early in 2016. Why not a much bigger cutback in CapEX? Wait for the crazy market to stabilize then turn the rigs back on instead of guessing when some normalcy will return. The large offshore E&P projects have been significantly impaired and they will not be able to respond nearly as quickly to price stabilization as will the frackers...
    Jan 19, 2016. 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Has A Blowout Quarter And Forecasts More Of The Same  [View article]
    All, me thinks that we'll have some stabilization in oil prices by the end of 2Q 2016 -- maybe $35 - $40? I just believe that there are too many POLITICAL forces that will not allow sub $30 oil to persist throughout 2016. Yes we will continue to over-produce but the 'last barrel' price will magically stabilize. That said, looking out into late 2017 or 2018, unless the whole world economy really blows up, we're going to see a dramatic reversal with much higher oil prices. There simply has been too much damage done to LT E&P projects to be able to turn the spigots back on in the intermediate term. By that time, $LONE will be a $20+ stock with several tuck in acquisitions under their belt. Hope I'm right -- because I'm sure way overweight in the name. BTW - China announced record demand for oil...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Jan 19, 2016. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can Oil And The Markets Go?  [View article]
    Bret -- OK, we all agree that China is clearly slowing. But, if, a big if, you believe the 'official' numbers, then two things do not make sense to me:
    1) Law of large numbers -- same problem AAPL has -- once you get to giant size, it's increasingly more difficult to move the needle. No one ever seems to give credit to this. Gosh, 6% growth looks pretty darn good to me. Just think what we would be saying about the US economy if we had 1/2 that growth?
    2) The meltdown in oil, copper, iron ore, etc. does not line up with 6% growth. What's going on here?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Jan 14, 2016. 08:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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