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dhdhoora

dhdhoora
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  • Feed Your Family With These 4 Monthly Paying REITs [View article]
    Another Great Job Brad!

    I'm a long term holder of O, HCN, and HTA. After today's article and some DD, I'm about to get STAG! STAG -- 'we are hunters'. Hmmm..

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 23, 2015. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Capital One's mixed results [View news story]
    Net interest margin of 6.57% with a Tier1 capital ratio > 12! An amazing bank -- one that has way better cost structure than bricks and mortar banks... Bank is supporting mainstream America with CC, auto, mortgage and commercial loans -- not financial engineering to make Wall Street more prosperous...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil: A Grand Parade Of Cost Improvements [View article]
    Richard -- as always, thanks for great work!

    I've held a portfolio of small/mid cap shale E&P names for the past several years - typically around 6 names. But, I currently hold only Sanchez ($SN) and Lonestar ($LNREF) in the Eagle Ford. What is stunning about these names is how the market continues to miss-pricing these names. In part, as you pointed out, miss pricing is caused by the market not understand just how far cost reductions have helped offset wellhead prices. Sanchez -- after its fabulous report yesterday continues to sell off. Earlier, Mr. Market whipped Sanchez down from $38.95 to $6.63 in the shale E&P panic selloff. Yes, shares have recovered somewhat, but still nowhere they should be based upon the fundamentals. Likewise Lonestar took a similar beating going from $.60 down to $.12/sh. (Thank goodness a 50:1 RS split is in the works and they will be able to find themselves off the the pinks...)

    But, the key point I wanted to make is that great, experienced teams are able to manage and ride out these cycles. (On the other hand, some companies run by financial 'wizards', levered plays thinking the $100 oil music would never stop. Then they were left without a chair when the music stopped. ) IMHO, both Sanchez and Lonestar have deep, superior management. They now have operations and leverage well under control and are at least cash flow neutral or positive for ops and capex at today's BOE prices. I'm especially encouraged that Lonestar has retained the services of John Pinkerton (former founder/CEO of Range Resources) to help mange these times. Maybe oil has bottomed and both of these companies deserve to come out of the dog house...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schwarzman Is Cautious, But Blackstone Is Raising $350 Million [View article]
    "The problem has been that the stock has been moving steadily higher for several months without much of a pullback."

    The train has left the station and you're hoping for a breakdown -- I don't believe this is going to happen... Mr. Schwarzman fully recognizes that BX has been undervalued by a market that confuses Blackstone with Black Rock. He is out to fix this -- listen to the last few CCs.

    BX forward dividend yield is now 8% and a higher dividend yield is part of the company's strategy to boost market acceptance of the company.

    Finally basing an article on BX investing $350M is like you just found change under the couch cushions. Seriously?

    BX is a fantastic core holding and unfortunately, it appears that you have not figured this out yet. Nevertheless,

    All the very best,
    Don
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:49 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    TxGoofer...
    Well, I believe we're right down the fairway with a 320 yard drive. Clean 6 iron into a center pin for a 'green light' special..

    The only problem with Lonestar remains their Australia primary listing and the fact that NO ONE is following this puppy.

    If oil has bottomed, and I believe it has, $LNRF has also. Anything in this range is a steal as we'll have easy schmeezie $17.50 to $20 by EOY (R/S adjusted...)! Calling a bottom here is cake...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 17, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Dan...

    I'm a bit surprised at the $DD&A number -- but my big concern is cash -- not non-cash expenses. My thinking is that they discuss 2,500 BBD being hedged so we're at or above the $60/Boe hurdle in 2015 with WTI currently in the low $50 range. So, after the R/S hysteria passes, I speculate that the company is good to go with their growth plans and yes, new equity. Mr. Pinkerton did not join the BOD to play Texas Holdum -- but rather Texas Buyem...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is Hilariously Undervalued Right Now [View article]
    @Eckman1...

    I'm delighted that you're in the Lonestar camp -- but I would caution you to noy try and pick the bottom with the "below 13 cents" idea. While I don't expect any short term move until after the R/S, you might want to take advantage of the 13 cent range. We could be at 15, 16, 20 cents in a heartbeat and you'll be sorry about missing the 13 cent buy. In the long run, if the company performs as we expect and the Street finally catches up to the name, the penny will not really make any difference...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Dan... I assume you're using $50 bbl oil for the 16% ROIC? Also, since you're a lot better with the metrics of the business than I am, can we still assume that EBITDAX in Q1 will be flat with Q4 2014 and that we're operating essentially on a cash flow break even basis -- not dinging the credit line?

    Thanks and all the very best,
    Don
    Apr 5, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Dan for your comments.

    Agreed that Lonestar will look to 2015 as being 'flat' with 2014 -- but compared to many upstream plays this is terrific!
    I also believe that the addition of Mr. Pinkerton to their already strong BOD and management team is a very smart move and gives me a great deal of confidence in the company. I'm not an oil E&P expert, but it sure looks like they're doing the right thing to ride this out. Yes, I agree that they will scoop up additional plays this year.

    I've asked Lonestar several questions about their very convoluted beginnings and ownership structure. Unfortunately, have heard nothing... Company was formed with a reverse merger. EWPO owns approx 60% of Lonestar shares. Shares are primarily listed on the Australian stock exchange, Lonestar Resources of America, Inc. actually holds most everything inside of Lonestar -- I just don't see any reason to have two entities - Lonestar and LRAI. This mess, plus the penny stock BB must scare off most serious investors and analysts.

    Dan, I've been a bit more aggressive in moving my PPS down to $.23 -- but hey, probably not as smart as you! My guess is for oil > $60/bbl and $LNREF PPPS > $.30 by EOY.

    Thanks for providing folks like me with valuable insight into Lonestar and;
    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 3, 2015. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    $LNREF remains one of the biggest mysteries that I have encountered in 40 years of investing -- although I usually don't play with the penny stock BB names... I'm personally banking on the 'deal of the century' -- buying some frequently as I layer in bringing my PPS down. Can't think about 'doubling down' -- the float is too tiny to support even a small retail investor like myself... Argh... my last 5 purchases of $LNREF -- .1399, .155, .1548, .133, and today @ .1348! Whoopie!!

    Obviously, I believe the company will survive this downturn -- they are not way over-levered and I'm really counting on Mr. Pinkerton coming along side the company -- can anyone bring any better experience? I'm also impressed by management and the BOD in having the foresight to bring him on.

    Using their presentation from the last CC -- they show a PV-10 @ $404M using $55 oil. Every one of their operating areas still had positive netbacks (after LOE and taxes) in Q4. OK, one major interest payment coming up -- but they certainly do not show themselves as going out of business. Let's get the 'consolidation' done, and get this stock off of the pinks and see where we go...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    @shavitmi...

    Darned if I know... Somebody sold me shares today @ $.133 -- how is that possible? We are now very close to a 10 YEAR LOW!!! So, I've been accumulating a bit every day down here. In 40 years of investing, I've never seen anything like this. I've studied the presentations several times and every time I read them, I want to buy more. Now, my kids inheritance is starting to get on shaky ground... but I honestly believe that we will pull out of this. I do hold a portfolio of 36 names but I've never speculated as much as I have on $LNREF. If one is going to speculate in oil E&P -- this be the place. Buy now and by the EOY -- we should be happy campers...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Faces An Uncertain Future After Patent Loss In India [View article]
    This article is one of the challenges we occasionally must endure when participating in the crowdsourcing financial analysis.

    Rami -- I suggest you get involved with SA a bit before publishing a very shaky thesis as to why, one of the most-researched, closely-followed, and highest-rated companies on the street faces an uncertain future.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 30, 2015. 02:24 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Logical...

    I've accepted your right to state your position on Auryxia -- people 'for' or 'against' something most often 'cherry pick' the tenants of their thesis -- that's the way the game is played. Hope most of us understand this.

    But, IMHO, you crossed the line with your attack with the last statement om your response to david nehme...
    "You make your living your way and I'll keep making mine by buying cheap stocks and selling overpriced ones, okay?".

    Yes, he attacked you, but you went for the bait. SA authors should not respond in this manner. Let's keep the tone civil with something like "sorry that we disagree".

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    evernew... Virtually all institutional investors and many retail investors stay away from penny stocks simply because of volatility and too little liquidity. Lonestar appears to be a well run E&P with a believable survive and prosper strategy. The company's management appears to be sound. While somewhat levered, they seem be keeping things under control. There is no explanation for the lack of interest in the stock other than it is being seen as a cheap highly speculative penny stock. It deserves a better perception in the market place. I've made nice money investing in companies that find themselves needing a R/S -- as long as the reason for the reverse split was not to mask a failing business. Clearly, Lonestar is not failing. I'll keep adding because on any reasonable basis, the company is 2x to 3x undervalued -- even given the shale oil E&P smackdown. It is priced for BK by a market that is too lazy to dig into the name.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 29, 2015. 11:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Dan -- this was very helpful.

    You probably know I am a big fan of the proposed 'consolidation' (reverse/split) and hope that this will enable to move investor interest in the company. I did check with Lonestar IR and they indicated that they expect the Annual Meeting to be somewhere around May 1. So, it looks like we might be out of the micro penny foolishness sometime by maybe June 1! Hoora!! Just this past Wednesday, I believe we had a whopping 200 shares traded!! That's about $30 worth!!###$! How can that be with a company that has approx 650MM share float? Never seen anything like that. I keep adding small buys to my holdings but can't even find liquidity for 5K or 10k buys. Amazing...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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