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dhdhoora

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  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    evernew... Virtually all institutional investors and many retail investors stay away from penny stocks simply because of volatility and too little liquidity. Lonestar appears to be a well run E&P with a believable survive and prosper strategy. The company's management appears to be sound. While somewhat levered, they seem be keeping things under control. There is no explanation for the lack of interest in the stock other than it is being seen as a cheap highly speculative penny stock. It deserves a better perception in the market place. I've made nice money investing in companies that find themselves needing a R/S -- as long as the reason for the reverse split was not to mask a failing business. Clearly, Lonestar is not failing. I'll keep adding because on any reasonable basis, the company is 2x to 3x undervalued -- even given the shale oil E&P smackdown. It is priced for BK by a market that is too lazy to dig into the name.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 29, 2015. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks Dan -- this was very helpful.

    You probably know I am a big fan of the proposed 'consolidation' (reverse/split) and hope that this will enable to move investor interest in the company. I did check with Lonestar IR and they indicated that they expect the Annual Meeting to be somewhere around May 1. So, it looks like we might be out of the micro penny foolishness sometime by maybe June 1! Hoora!! Just this past Wednesday, I believe we had a whopping 200 shares traded!! That's about $30 worth!!###$! How can that be with a company that has approx 650MM share float? Never seen anything like that. I keep adding small buys to my holdings but can't even find liquidity for 5K or 10k buys. Amazing...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise [View article]
    ralph ... as I mentioned in an earlier comment, I'm wondering why one would choose BXMT over the parent company BX - other than the LP structure. BTW, BX now has a forward yield of 8.3% after a dividend raise last quarter. Mr. Schwarzman has indicate that he believes BX to be way undervalued and suspects, along with the street, to see $43/sh this year. So, we're looking at a return of well over 20% this year with BX -- and actually less risky in a rising rate environment. What am I missing?

    All the very best,
    Don
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This REIT Yielding 7.4% Should Benefit Investors When Rates Rise [View article]
    Brad -- as always a great piece! I look forward to your sleep well at night approach to REIT investing - have done very well with HCN and HTA.

    I hold a lot of Blackstone (BX) that pays a similar dividend to BXMT but offers, IMHO, a better capital appreciation opportunity. (Besides, I get to help Steve Schwarzman be one of the richest people on the planet! Ha ha.) Anyway, outside of the challenges of a LP structure, do you have any other reasons to favor BXMT over the parent BX?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 27, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    I'm not a petroleum engineer, but how does a well produce 'only' gas and no oil? Is that possible? Does this mean that the oil is exhausted in the play? This must be some kind of operational reporting error. Hopefully Mr. Pinkerton will help straighten these things out. He would be reading the report and saying "WTF"...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Is Plug Power's Greatest Salesperson [View article]
    Many positives for Plug. But the market will not soon forget years of film-flam and unfortunately, being overly aggressive on guidance last year. That said, I continue to hold and look forward to a strong 2015.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 25, 2015. 12:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Is A Short For A Multitude Of Reasons [View article]
    Mr. Logical Thought...

    Suffice to say, I'm not in agreement with your short position and the tenor of your article -- but you're entitled to state your position and thesis. However, I'm not going to debate you on all of the points you have made regarding Auryxia except for the very first point:
    "Over two months after launch, sales of Keryx's only drug - Auryxia - are extremely low."

    As a matter of fact, the numbers are consistent with the early launch numbers show by other phosphate binders. But most importantly, you entirely failed to discuss the notion that Keryx is still very much engaged with payers to get Auryxia listed in their formularys. Every indication is that this is going very much according to plan and it will be probably into the 3rd quarter until we can expect to have enough payer approval so that one can make a meaningful review of prescription numbers.

    But one final note idea that is entirely missing from your thesis on why we should short the stock -- is the fact that Mr. Greg Madison is now running the ship. Mr. Madison, and his team, have very deep experience in the launch of drugs in the renal space. Importantly, Mr. Madison was part of the Renvela launch team. I'm guessing that he would not have joined Keryx if he believed that Auryxia was inferior or no better than the other phosphate binders. Listening to the past presentations and conference calls, Mr. Madison exudes confidence in the commercialization of Auryxia -- they simply know what they are doing.

    Auryxia will be a commercial success in the CKD market and a winner in the pre-CKD market. Along the way, the company, now set up for commercialization efforts in the renal space, will acquire other drugs to bring to market.

    I wish you all the very best, but you're very wrong with Keryx. But, maybe you can scare up some short term gain on your position. In the end, longs win.

    Don
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regional banks get organized to fight SIFI threshold [View news story]
    "SIFI" = science fiction! How can these banks create 'systemic risk'. Heck, they're the only ones really working with consumers and main street...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is Hilariously Undervalued Right Now [View article]
    All -- the few, the proud, and the brave that follow $LNREF...

    I'm excited about the share consolidation -- but I'm really very encouraged about the announcement of John Pinkerton to the Board and also as a consultant.

    "March 15th, 2015- Lonestar Resources Limited (ASX: LNR, OTCQX: LNREF) is pleased to announce that, effective immediately, John Pinkerton has joined the Board of Directors of the Company and has agreed to provide consulting advice on strategic issues, capital expenditure plans, acquisitions, and related corporate development matters."

    In looking at Mr. Pinkerton's contribution to Range Resources (CEO - Chairman etc.), he was instrumental in building Range from a startup E&P gasser to one of the main players in the Marcellus. He built the company with the drill bit and acquisitions and bolting on acreage. This is PRECISELY the strategy being pursued by Lonestar.

    Importantly, it strikes me that he would NOT be wasting his time or credibility on Lonestar if he didn't believe that they were going to survive this plunge in the price of oil. (they can't be paying him enough to do that...)

    Crap -- gonna buy more at these silly prices even though I'm way way over-weight here...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 19, 2015. 01:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Takeaways From Antares Pharma's Q4 2014 Results [View article]
    Mark:
    Thanks for the good summary. I've been in Antares for over 3 years and it is kind of sobering to look at this stock now. (I'm actually a bit surprised that you took the time to publish an article -- there apparently is not a lot of interest here as I am the first to comment after being online for about 3 hrs...)

    While there is noting wrong with the company, $ATRS is definitely a broken stock. Very low volume on the days after the quarterly report -- no real interest one way or the other. Just a 'shrug'. Obviously, SP has not recovered from the MEDAC debacle where Otrexup was once thought to be the "cat's pajamas" for RA sufferers and now is just one of many. Also, outsourcing commercialization didn't work out so well ether... Anyway, we wait, and wait, and wait with some glimmer of hope on the EpiPen -- but shucks, we don't even know when the FDA is going to bless this... we wait, and wait, and wait... The government is not too excited about old guys like me shooting up testosterone and we wait, and wait, and wait... but most importantly there is nothing new and exciting about the place. We wait, and wait, and wait... sigh...

    I'm down 20% on $ATRS which isn't the worst I've ever done, but when I look at my $ATRS performance against the S&P 500 -- down 87%. Ouch... can you say 'dead money'?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 17, 2015. 03:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Chart Shows Why Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Remains A Top Pick In 2015 [View article]
    PT -- "75% of their revenue comes from the E&P related construction"

    Uh, since when are clean energy, LNG terminals, pipelines etc. considered "E&P"? Energy infrastructure is not the same thing as E&P. Hope you're not making that mistake in playing in the oil patch. Midstream assets and refiners will do quite well regardless of the price of oil. In fact, it could be argued that they benefit from the lower prices. Same thing is true for LNG terminals -- which will create a boom for Gas E&P as they finally will have a way to build demand. Last time I checked, nuclear had little to do with Oil E&P as well as environmental clean up projects. So, I believe you're throwing a lot of projects into the Oil E&P bathtub and then believing that they get discarded with the bathwater...
    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Energy Corporation: A Bird In The Hand Is Worth Two In The Bush [View article]
    Chancer...

    You are spot on about selling down here. I am down 85% after I bot a bunch @ $.17. It makes no sense to sell out here -- there isn't enough dough left to make any difference. I probably won't buy any more until we hear something about paying the March 2 note. If the note is paid, advisers, insiders, and management must believe that there is a chance to survive. Undoubtedly, they will sell more assets and sit still until later this year. If we get back to $60 and their LOE projections hold, then they can start generating some positive cash flow. If they don't see any chance of survival, the company will declare bankruptcy prior to April 2.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Want Book Value: Annaly's Weakness Is Not The Dividend [View article]
    "the compensation structure may create a disincentive for repurchasing shares."

    That's the story. Management simply does not have any incentive to worry about share price or book value. The size of the pie and dividends put extra dough in management's pockets and they feel that is sufficient compensation for shareholders. So, NLY investors should simply collect the dividends and worry about nothing else...Sigh...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Hip Hip Hoora for the share consolidation! As I've posted many times, I can see no downside to this transaction.

    I understand that the company's financial projections are now based upon $50 to $60 WTI which may still be a bit optimistic. But, I'm certainly no expert other than to see that we're running out of places to stuff the oil as production continues to outstrip demand. Hey, didn't "W" get $147/bbl for his buddies to dump scarce barrels into the SPR? Why can't the government pay $44/bbl to top off the supply?

    Anyway, I'm delighted that someone sold me shares this morning @ $.1399! If we see $2 handle on the strip price, I'll be back for more with SP in the $.12 range (assuming we haven't executed 'consolidation' before then. Also, consolidation will put some downward pressure on the SP as ninnies fret about all the times they've seen reverse splits trash a stock. But, of course those episodes were for failing companies -- $LNREF is not in that camp...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 16, 2015. 02:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Bull Market Is Showing Cracks - Part II [View article]
    MQ -- glad to see that you are among the very select few that have found $LNREF. Now, if a couple of hundred others will find this, we'd be off to the races!

    ATVB,
    Don
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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