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dhdhoora

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  • American Apparel Isn't Out Of The Woods Yet [View article]
    While $APP survival is not a certain thing, I find the last quarter's CC to be quite encouraging. The new management already has had a significant impact on cost reductions -- wow! The key will be the new, as of yet unannounced, CEO and continued support from bondholders...

    But one must assume that SG knows what they are doing. They are very deep dive value investors that have experience in similar retail situations (yes I know they screwed up with RS -- but most of us learn from our mistakes...) American Apparel has significant brand equity and I believe that 'sweatshop free' will continue to resonate with certain buyers. So, my thesis is that the outfit is 'fixable' and by EOY there will be some stability. Just wish I hadn't sold my $.55 shares when I feared that Charney was going to put up a real big fight. Of course, he was faced with seeing the company go into BK or play nice. He chose the latter...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 20 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel Isn't Out Of The Woods Yet [View article]
    While $APP survival is not a certain thing, I find the last quarter's CC to be quite encouraging. The new management already has had a significant impact on cost reductions -- wow! The key will be the new, as of yet unannounced, CEO and continued support from bondholders...

    But one must assume that SG knows what they are doing. They are very deep dive value investors that have experience in similar retail situations (yes I know they screwed up with RS -- but most of us learn from our mistakes...) American Apparel has significant brand equity and I believe that 'sweatshop free' will continue to resonate with certain buyers. So, my thesis is that the outfit is 'fixable' and by EOY there will be some stability. Just wish I hadn't sold my $.55 shares when I feared that Charney was going to put up a real big fight. Of course, he was faced with seeing the company go into BK or play nice. He chose the latter...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 20 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere: A Unique Long Opportunity [View article]
    Cysmalla:

    It will be at least 60 days before NanoSphere would receive a notice of non-compliance with the $1.00 SP minimum. Then they would get 6 months to cure and in most cases another 6 months extension. Before they de-listed -- maybe 15 months from now, they would have shareholders approve a reverse split. This is the least of our problems for now. The company doe not have 15 months runway...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 18 09:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere: A Unique Long Opportunity [View article]
    Wow, such a well written presentation -- but sadly lacking in objective reality --IMHO. I'm wondering if this is a paid promotion? Strange that NanoSphere has had two SA articles in the past three days? Since when did this company become so attractive?

    Anyway, the author seems to dismiss the absolutely dismal track record of the company and how long-term investors, such as myself, have seen this movie before. I could list a dozens of arguments against the author's 'analysis' but here are a few:
    1) "the company's financials look solid" -- huh?#$@@! With a $10M quarterly run rate and only $21M in the bank and no profits, the company faces 'going concern' challenges. Even with the ATM execution and a 20% dilution, the ATM will barely provide for another quarter;
    2) Management, both old and new, have not come close to the expectations that they set for sales. Citing Y/Y revenue growth is just silly for a tiny company.
    3) As cited in the risks, the company clearly does not know how to sell to their market. This is not a risk -- but a fact.
    4) There is no mention of competition -- seriously?
    5) This was a $5 stock a year ago -- now if all the good magic takes place -- we'll get back to $2.50 in a year? Wow!!!
    6) Stockholders equity loss is approaching a cool 1/2 Billion.. and last but not least;
    7) With no major backing and thin financing, I guess that hospitals are reluctant to sign up for a long term relationship. Who is going to provide support and supplies if the outfit goes out of business?

    NanoSphere is a company that I used to be excited about. They have been providing product and assays to the market for more than 2 years and still have a pipeline of tests in development or approval stage. But looking at it now, one needs to take off the rose-colored glasses and deal with reality. I don't like to be negative -- but I just don't agree with the overly-optimistic thesis glibly covered by a listing of risks. The risks appear to be all too real IMHO. Nevertheless, a well written presentation.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 18 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Dan -- thanks so much for clarifying the transaction. I hold a couple of mezzanine BDCs (PSEC & FSC) and your conclusion about Wyllie's exit from Lonestar is entirely in keeping with BDC behavior as I understand it. Too many people confuse BDCs with hedge funds and probably jumped to conclusions with $LNREF. I also hold a number of junior E&Ps and Lonestar seems to be very sound and as of yet, very undiscovered in the USA. Sadly, the Australian home will contribute to the low following in the name, but the growth trajectory will eventually demand its place in the sun out of the shadows of Australia. Not dissing Australia -- but its far removed from the oil catters in Texas!

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 17 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nanosphere: An Unappreciated Growth Story [View article]
    This piece resembles a shareholder presentation deck from 1 to 2 years ago... I have held $NSPH for a couple of years and it has been an extremely experience -- the worst performer in my portfolio.

    IMO there are several reasons why this stock is 'undervalued', unloved, or possible just where it deserves to be:
    1) Management, current and former, have failed to meet stated expectations. Adoption of the Verigene system has faced significantly greater challenges than they led investors to believe. I originally purchased shares thinking this was a no-brainer 'razor and razorblade' strategy. Hospital labs would fall over themselves to get the gizmos, and we'd have a huge organic growth picture from the supplies.. Uh, not so much.
    2) It was/is clear that management grossly underestimated the pace of adoption within the hospitals. Obviously, they were selling into a market that they did not understand.
    3) Competition is all over this space. Their molecular diagnostic capability was way ahead of the curve a few years ago. Now, as the author points out, other technologies threaten the larger labs, and not said by the author was the mention of Biofire -- which has been eating NSPH's lunch in the smaller labs. Nanosphere's technology appears dated and the company has been trying to accelerate development of its next generation product.
    4) MOST IMPORTANTLY, because of points # 1 - 3, customers, IMHO, are reluctant to establish a long term, strategic relationship with a tiny outfit that has no major backers and is nearing a time that it may have a 'going concern' problem.

    So, glad that the authors don't have an interest in $NSPH, but sadly, there is a lot more negative than positive once you look behind the covers. The last CC was depressing -- even NanoSphere management could find little to rally their cause and there lack of excitement was undeniable. Why am I holding? I got blindsided by the last CC just like most other longs. Building up a mighty fine tax loss now -- huh?

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 15 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Apparel delays 10-Q filing but provides preliminary results [View news story]
    Results not as bad as expected! It will take at least a couple of quarters to fix this mess, but several metrics are moving in the right direction. Once top line growth resumes, the company could fairly easily turn profitable. But, will need capital to deal with debt and any growth initiatives...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Aug 12 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demand For Sand Offers 25%+ Total Return Potential [View article]
    Brucejfern...

    Always enjoy your comments - and appreciate your concerns. However, I"m not sure that HCLP is really as 'cyclical' as you might think. An astounding 75% of production is held in long term contracts -- 5 yr average -- with 'take or pay' provisions. If the contract holder doesn't need the sand -- uh, they still get to pay for it! What's not to like about that? Also, the author could have spent some time discussing the logistical assets that HCLP has. This helps a ton (pun intended) in managing reliable, on time delivery to customers.


    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 11 11:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iREIT TV: Exclusive Interview With CEO Of Healthcare Trust Of America [View article]
    Nice job Brad! You bring a lot of class to SA and the REIT space.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 5 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Interest Rates And BDCs: Part 1 [View article]
    A few years ago, one could have somewhat reasonable discussions on YM MBs. Unfortunately, that is not the case any longer. 99% trash by folks that obviously have too much time on their hands and probably have significant psychological and/or social issues... IMHO, Marissa has been playing 'head in the sand' on that area of the site. They absolutely needed to get control of behavior over there and unfortunately have failed miserably. Too bad, still a good source of info with their Key Metrics. Personally, I stick primarily with SA and M*.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 5 10:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Will Be Range Bound [View article]
    'Hope springs eternal'!

    Question I have -- 'does the fact that INVN does not perform its own manufacturing (fabless) provide more of an opening for third parties to beat $INVN with equal innovation and better manufacturing? Seems that's always been the heart of Intel's story...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 4 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone: The Market Is Putting The Wrong Company In The Bargain Bin [View article]
    Well, thanks for mentioning the insider selling. I just checked this out thinking I would find the usual EOY tax selling an personal needs selling. Normally, I pay absolutely not attention to this, but in the case of $BX, there was some SERIOUS money being harvested by Mr. Hamilton (Pres)(stock selling) and to lesser extent Mr. Schwarzman (compensation)... Alas, it appears Mr. Hamilton received a sweet $170MM on shares sold in 2013 -- through 10 sales. Hmmm... poor guy -- his first sales were at $18.22/ sh and his last at $28.77. Hmmm. Just think if he had waited... Hmmm. (See, never try to time the market...) What's another $40MM ???... Now what to do with my $15k investment...

    All the very best
    Don
    Aug 4 04:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Show Me The Money: The Perils Of REIT ETF Investing [View article]
    @Robert..

    I was trained in efficient market theory and used to be a believer. And, for the average passive investor, ETFs, and to a certain extent, low cost mutual funds, are possibly a reasonable way to go. But, I've become increasingly skeptical about efficient market theory for three reasons;
    1) HFT has significantly distorted market behavior;
    2) Increase in technical trading; and
    3) ETFs themselves have become trading vehicles.

    When these forces are put into play -- especially in thinner niche, or even segment-designed ETFs, (REIT ETFs?) the results can be pretty disruptive. This year, for example, small caps and biotechs have moved in sudden reversals. There is absolutely no way that these movements are reflective of the independent judgement of thousands of investors (efficient market). You literally can have 'segment crashes' which can only be caused, IMHO, by the 3 factors I just mentioned. So, big-belly index funds may work for the passive investor, but I just don't see where niche ETFs can make similar claims. But hey, as my wife says, 'what do I know'...

    All the very best, and this is a great discussion,
    Don
    Aug 4 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone: The Market Is Putting The Wrong Company In The Bargain Bin [View article]
    Jeff -- looks like you're relatively new to the SA horde. Welcome! Yes, I liked the brief overview of BX -- which I hold. That said, would appreciate more development on the idea as to 'why' the Market does not get BX. I have a few main ideas:
    1) Since its IPO in 2007, the name has barely recovered from the initial IPO price. This smoked a lot of institutional investors and killed momentum in the stock;
    2) BX is a somewhat complex 'alternative asset management' firm - that is a bit beyond the pay grade of most retail investors like myself; and
    3) BX was originally positioned, as an alternative asset manager, to appeal to institutional pension fund managers. As pension fund-managed assets have given way to individualized 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans etc. people worry that there will be less demand for this type of asset in the future (although inflow since the crash has been terrific...)

    To counteract point # 2 & 3, BX has developed a number of new strategies to attract inflow -- which I understand is pointing more toward individual investors. As these strategies take hold, I speculate that BX will finally take off, get more Market interest, and more closely trade in relation to its often-confused cousin $BLK.

    I agree that $BX is way, way undervalued by Mr./Mrs. Market. For the patient investor, $BX should be a core holding enjoying the $5+% dividend while the market figures out that Mr. Schwarzman and company are a lot smarter than most of the rest of us...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Aug 4 10:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Should Move Substantially In The Next 2 Months [View article]
    Get over the NCE and IP challenges. Independent authorities as well as Keryx management have indicated over and over and over again that they are strong in their IP situation through 2024. Most of the market moves in nanosecond twitches, I'm hardly worried about what might happen 10 years down the road... You'e beating a dead horse...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Jul 30 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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