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dhdhoora

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  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    Trevor -- thanks for the shout out to your Talk Money article. Good review of Trimesta. I'm curious as to why you did not post the article over here in SA? Do the rules of engagement prohibit posting the same article on multiple blog sites?

    With respect to the lack of insider buying at $SYN -- I find this most troublesome. Yes, Riley and and CFO have been awarded significant amounts of stock options -- but I strongly believe that they should put up more of their own dough along with the BOD. If this is truly a multi-mult-bagger, why won't they? Just looks bad. As it is right now, according to M*, insiders hold less that .05% -- that's not a typo - of outstanding shares. We all know that this makes no sense...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fantastic Results Reinforce Northern Tier Thesis [View article]
    $NTI is one of my favorites -- they clearly have a terrific operational team and logistics advantage over many of the other refiners. Interesting that there was no discussion on the logistics assets -- pipeline partnership or trucking ops. Seems that I would want to buff those up a bit -- uh, what does the PR firm do?

    Also interesting that downstream is actually benefiting from the lower cost of gas. I suspected this might be the case so we're now seeing that midstream and downstream are doing fine with lower oil prices. Now, if my upstream plays would come around... (oh, well I can always dream...)

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie: Attractive Valuation, Growth Prospects & Yield [View article]
    Bret -- I'm a big fan of yours.

    $ABBV is OK. Humira is happening, Viekera Pak is packin -- kind of, and pipeline is a piping hot. But, they are still second fiddle to $GILD IMHO. The $ABBV divie is decent, but my guess is that the share price is going to stall as the market struggles with Humira coming off of patent in 2016 (RE: $PFE/Lipitor). So, $ABBV is good, solid play but nothing to get too excited about. Me thinks your eyes have been swayed by the pretty, young 3.5% dividend!

    So, $ABBE is OK for a bit of large cap biopharma diversification -- but not a core holding - IMHO. "Accumulate" is OK, but...

    'There is a balm in Gilead'...
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Coming Back From The Brink [View article]
    Thanks Bret -- good piece. I just bought my opening position yesterday!

    I get excited when investors like you, that are a lot more gifted than myself, read the 'tea leaves' pretty much the same as I do! The US economy is doing OK, capital is cheap, and big dog construction companies like $CBI are going to do just fine. ($30B backlog). And the big money seems to be behind the name.

    What's not to like? But of course, the market over-reacts to miss-information and herd behavior, punishing long term holders but creating opportunities for new investors in the name. And the beat goes on...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Wondervalley

    Thanks for the tip on Oilandgas360.com -- a very handy resource for easy-to-read profiles on a number of small cap E&P plays.

    ATVB
    Don
    Feb 15, 2015. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Dan:

    Thanks for your great comments an insight. I'm in $LNREF because of 'guys like you' that humbly discuss this wildly overlooked company. (I did follow UPL a bit years ago as part of my miserable-failure learning of how not to do 'swing trading'.)

    I have confidence in the Lonestar management in that they seem to be making the right moves in dealing with the oil crash and have been shown to take a fairly conservative approach to debt and leverage. So they must be smart guys. Making the company 'visible' to equity markets would seem to make all of the sense in the world. They clearly must have a reason for letting shares wallow on the pinks and you've speculated that the must be building the company for a buyout. Question is, can the get big enough while still ignoring the public equity markets?

    All the very best,
    Don
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    MisterR,
    Nobody is a bigger $SYN fan than I am -- but I must say 'whoa' to your over the top numbers. Yes, Riley did indicate that the potential for a cdiff prophylactic market might be $13B. But that number assumes that SYN004 hops along side ALL IV antibiotics being administered in hospitals. My understanding is that SYN004 is being tested alongside of beta-lactam antibiotics which currently make up approx 30% of IV antibiotic use -- if I'm not mistaken. So, me thinks the very long term potential is that $13B number -- but right now we're probably dealing with maybe 1/3 of that.

    In any case, the cognitive Trimesta could indeed be bigger than even the cdiff market. We're probably about 2 quarters away from making that claim pending MRI results on P2 MS and P2 data from the current cognitive study. But, we're only arguing about blockbuster after blockbuster. $SYN will be bought out well before it has the chance to fully developing its pipeline or the platform. My guess is $10/sh by end of next year. $5/sh by mid 2016 if Trimesta is on target and $10 when we get topline P3 Syn004 -- if all goes well! What's not to like!

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 13, 2015. 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources Is A Great Value Long Term For Your Portfolio [View article]
    shavitmi -- there are a few of us true believers in $LNREF -- alas I've tried to get YH to give Lonestar a MB. But, I won't lose too much sleep over not having one. YH MBs become nothing more than a dumping/pumping place where there are very few insightful or respectful posts.

    A much bigger problem is that Lonestar is apparently not concerned about the public perception of their company or the pink sheets stock. Clearly, they could do more for us. 4 of my 5 other small cap E&P stocks have started to recover (uh not so much with $AMZG.. ugh. $AMZG probably wont' make it.) But there is nothing to suggest that $LNREF wouldn't ride out this oil debacle. So why hasn't shares started to recover? Nobody knows about them...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Is Firing On Nearly All Cylinders [View article]
    The big guys are tired of the 'same old, same old'. And 20% of shares are short so probably they're having fun shaking out the retail investors. But, most likely, there simply is a realization that Dr. Kim's pump machine has been way too aggressive in touting the miracles of Syncon (a con?). Stepping aside from the hype, we can see that most of the catalysts are still way down the road. We're in the early stages of many 5 year journeys with their proposed drugs. That's a looooonnng time to wait.

    Finally, gross pictures of the cervix to not lead to excitement about the stock, IMHO, unless you're in the medical profession.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    Good overall introduction/review for $SYN.

    Synthetic is the only name in my personal portfolio of approx 38 names (8 in biotech or pharma area) that is in all three of my personal accounts. That's how convinced I am that $SYN is going to be successful! With 3 blockbuster shots on goal, I'm betting that at least one will win big time. I'm hopeful that Trimesta will have strong results with the cognitive study and that the phase II MS MRI data will be convincing. If the cognitive research continues to be positive, then Trimesta has the potential to help way beyond MS -- think Alzheimer's -- the most costly ($ and societal costs) medical condition we're facing. Maybe this is a stretch -- but why not hope that this is an eventual outcome! Even without the cognitive wins, Trimesta has the potential to be a very important drug in the MS arena.

    The other area that personally excites me about $SYN is their platform for helping out the microbiome that continually gets blasted by our overuse of antibiotics. As we all know, antibiotics, while necessary in the short run, are messing us up in the long run. I'm convinced that the bugs eventually win unless we find a way for our own body's good bugs (and other immunotherapy) to protect us from the bad bugs -- uh, I'm not a medical researcher... But, I'm cheering for success in the cdiff area.

    While we're all in investing to make money, Synthetic gives me the added dimension in my very small way of potentially helping others with some very nasty problems. What's not to like?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 10, 2015. 10:32 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income In Focus [View article]
    @Sure ... well even a slow, old guy like me gets your point when you say that $O is overvalued at this time. But, did you really need to mention it 5 times in the last 5 paragraphs? One time during the conclusion would have been more than sufficient - IMHO...

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 7, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks Investors [View article]
    @dothemathman

    I certainly appreciate your comments and analysis. I wish that share price actually reflected the underlying fundamentals as you have pointed out so well. My concern is that in the short term -- the market does not. The pullback in $GILD was caused by aggressive play promoting FUD about competition and pricing pressure and the herd ETFs. Most of the 'analysts' from the big houses reiterated their 'buy' recommendations seemingly going against the 'market'. I'd love it if the market was truly efficient and operated in a reasonable fashion. With 65% of shares being traded electronically by those that could care less about the underlying fundamentals, I'm afraid that fundamental analysis is a lost art -- certainly in the short term movement of share price.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Antares Pharma: Preparing For An Inflection Point [View article]
    Mark -- great work! You really dug into the IP progress/challenges and I very much appreciate it. I've held $ATRS for a few years and like many, have been disappointed by the Otrexup launch and the scrimmage with Medac. Your thesis show enough opportunity to keep me in the game. But Teva is everything and I'm afraid that any setback there will really whack the shares.

    As I continually to learn about and champion small cap biotech (much to my financial peril), t continues to amaze me that the share price run up to catalysts is much more impressive than post launch progress.

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 7, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital management checks the price charts on energy [View news story]
    Maybe CEO realizes that this market has completely lost contact with fundamental evaluation of companies. Everything is based on emotion, HFT, headlines and herd behavior. So why not blame oil -- maybe next excuse could be the polar vortex? In the mean time, the embarrassing riches being accumulated by managers goes unchallenged. But hey, look at your nice dividend -- uh, maybe another cut down the line because of that darn oil misconception?

    ATVB,
    Don
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Gilead Beats Estimates, But Guidance Spooks Investors [View article]
    IMHO, these are entirely different businesses. Also, the government would have huge problems with restraint of trade issues on such a combination. Ain't gonna happen.

    Gilead has prospered because it has kept to its core competencies and built an amazing drug discovery process. No need to go off into the weeds with PMBs.

    ATVB
    Don
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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