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  • SolarCity Retained Value Redux: The Utilities Strike Back [View article]
    @Casual Analyst

    Well Casual, your analysis is indeed very casual and incredibly one-sided. Somewhere in your dump of negative speculation about how the big, bad utilities are going to crush the likes of SolarCity, you might want to spend a bit more time discussing possible positives. Also, distributed solar is a completely different animal than using solar for base load generation. It would seem to be appropriate that you cleary seperate these ideas -- of course that might disturb your rant. While you say that solar is the "wave of the future", you might want to consider some additional ideas:
    1) Utilities may actually embrace distributed solar. It is a no cost way for them to help manage base load. Let the individual consumer pay. While we can certainly argue that this may not be the most economical way to go -- there is not enough adoption of distributed solar to get into a range war.
    2) Most states have green energy mandates and regulated utilites are always struggling to find ways to meet these mandates. Once again, distributed solar is a no cost way for them to help with these requirements.
    3) There are terrific PR for embracing 'green'. Regulated utilities are there to service there customers -- not crush them.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Apr 17 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Is The High Valuation Justified? [View article]
    I hope that SA readers are getting used to these nonsensical attacks by obviously-biased parties.

    It's discouraging that the author doesn't even remotely attempt a balanced examination of Kerxy nor does he have the decency to state his obvious short position on the stock. Bringing up the NCE and ferric citrate arguments is beyond desperate along with the silly royalty heritage question. So, obviously the author has a deeper understanding of the phosphate binder market than does the many highly reputable houses that have made significant upside projections on the stock. And, the company's presentations of the economic benefits of Zerenez must be simply wrong.

    In any case, I'm not a wild-eyed dreamer, but my money is on a very strong performance on $KERX throughout the next year.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Apr 16 11:10 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Capital One Financial [View article]
    Capital One is ahead of the game in using its credit card franchise to build a leadership position in internet banking and consumer and commercial loans. As bricks and motar banks become less relevant, $COF will continue to do quite well.


    But, why oh why would you stick with a 'modern' Graham method for 'defensive' investors that utilizes a 10 yr earnings metric? Given that the Great Recession took place during those 10 years, it would seem that the 'defensive' investor would basically be out of the market. Kind of silly analysis IMHO.


    All the very best,
    Don
    Apr 15 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hear The Shorts Knocking, But, I'm Staying Long On Inovio [View article]
    ermprops...

    Why would any serious investor post on YMB? Nothing there but trash talking by about 90% of posters. Problem is that in order to hear from real posters, you have to wade through tons of waste -- which is in itself a complete waste of time. SA is not perfect -- but a whole lot better than YMB.

    Thanks Stockedup or BRG or whatever you are. You're article was indeed reassuring to me that there are still some credible posters and authors on this planet.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Apr 9 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With SolarCity [View article]
    The boo birds have easy pickings with $SCTY as long as they are grubbing for worms on the ground. Uh, when they look up into the sky and scan the rooftops, they might just get a different, much brighter, picture!

    Ideas that never come out in these pieces:
    1) SolaCity's huger market share -- and growing. How can this be if it's just a simple thing to strap panels up on your roof - any dolt can do it?
    2) One stop shopping -- they have some very innovative financing (acknowledged in the article) along with some very good engineering -- something overlooked in the article.
    3) Barriers to entry -- size -- just ask Amazon.com.
    4) Potential for cooperation with local utilities -- states have mandated clean energy quotas and they can work with distributed solar to help manage peak base load and get green brownie points. They are not going to work with the local kids...
    5) Commercial and government. Once again, the kids on the block are not going to get this business.
    6) SCTY, Musk et. al, track record for innovation. Nay sayers assume that the world is flat... While costs for solar will come down, there simply is no clearly identified technology in the intermediate future that is going to disrupt or replace this technology. My guess is that homeowners will readily enjoy the savings instread of waiting for Mr. Goodbar...

    So, some investors can worry about what the world is going to be like in 20 years -- in the mean time, $SCTY is going to do just fine-- thank you.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Apr 9 11:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ProActive Capital Group's Rebuttal To Richard Pearson [View article]
    I commend ProActive Capital for defending itself. I don't believe that a one week delay is an excessively long quiet time to respond. This is pretty nitty-gritty legal stuff that should be vetted with counsel and advisers before responding.

    As far as the "best you could come up" -- what more do you want? The company has gone on printed record denying several defamatory accusations. Anything more should be reserved for a court of law, IHMO.

    Mr. Pearson's intentions are quite clear. He is willing to make very dangerous accusations in order to improve his short position. He is either:
    1) Reckless;
    2) Brilliant ; or a
    3) Securities crusader willing to slay evil in the murky world of small cap stock promotion.

    I simply am not qualified to judge Mr. Pearson. However, I'm certainly not against ProActive issuing this statement. Good for them... Galena was not so inclined...

    All the very best,
    Don

    Apr 5 12:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Proactive, Inovio And Unilife [View article]
    Stone Street Advisors...
    Precisely. The crux of the this situation is that the authors are not properly identifying that they are paid writers. Eventually, this will destroy SA if it is not stopped. The problem is, however IMHO, that why would anyone take the considerable time to properly research and write an article if they did not have any 'skin' in the game? Clearly the minuscule amount that SA pays authors for clicks would hardly justify such efforts -- especially in the small cap names. So, as investors, we must assume that EVERY author has an angle -- directly or indirectly in the company he/she writes about.

    With respect to this article -- there is no evidence that INO executives or board have taken personal advantage of any paid promotion campaign -- which is clearly not the case with Galena. OK, secondary shares were sold at inflated prices which benefits the company and even shareholders in the long run. However, investors in the secondaries would have to be qualified investors that should have performed their own due diligence and not relied upon SA - like us retail small fry. But, if INO has the goods and we sit tight, the truth will come out. Patience...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Mar 27 09:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Is This Time Different? [View article]
    Yes, I was very, very, very happy to un$PLUG at $11.49 this morning!

    All the very best,
    don
    Mar 11 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery: Is Silence Golden? [View article]
    Thanks Esekla...


    I have to say that I'm probably more excited about ERII than any of the other 40 or so stocks in my portfolio. I was blown away by the CC -- I'm not prone to hype -- but gosh, I can't seem to think of anything that has the potential future that ERII does. (I have some pretty exciting biotechs though...) Yes, there may be short term lumpiness in revenue, but that might be offset O&G announcements, new markets etc. Fun speculation on the 'quite' time going on now -- but hey, I appreciate quiet a lot more that blatant pumping...

    So, I'll accumulate more shares to move this puppy up to a very major core holding and then be prepared to sit on my shares for several years. Hope some nasty large cap does not come in and spoil the party!

    All the very best,
    Don
    Mar 8 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect's Growth Hides Bad Underwriting [View article]
    Lawerence:

    Well, I've not seen too many SA articles with the extensive footnoting that you provide to support your thesis, but I'm puzzled as to your motivation in writing this article. Your idea that shifting accrual-status loans to equity is one that would seemed to have some credibility. Yes, it does provide a way to make the 'no accrual' claim. That said, with 130 portfolio companies on the books of PSEC, is it possible that you're simply cherry picking problem cases? Nobody in the structured finance business is going to bat 100%. And if so, why do this? Somewhere, you, your buddies, your significant other or friends are short...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Mar 3 12:31 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything You Wanted To Know About Prospect Capital - I Was Able To Ask [View article]
    Adam:

    Thanks to you and Mr. Eliasek, I really have a much better understanding, and comfort with PSEC. I've been long for about a year and will definitely move PSEC into a 'core' holding in my equity/income portfolio and continue to accumulate. Interesting that today, 3/14, the market is definitely in a 'risk off' mode with a bit stronger support for income stocks in what is a pretty ugly day overall. That said, it is clear that the company will have to continue with some serious education for us investors. But, with rates expecting to rise and most of PSEC's book being floating rate, what's not to like? Also, long term capital appreciation potential from equity holdings tends to hold down BV as these assets are market at current value which rarely reflects future value at time of sale. So, what's not to like? No accrual loans in 6 years - what's not to like? PSEC, gimmie the 12% and I'll stash this away for several years. What's not to like?

    All the very best,
    Don
    Mar 3 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ferric Citrate [Zerenex] For The Treatment Of Hyperphosphatemia: A New Use For An Old Compound [View article]
    @Richard.

    I'm not a scientist but full-time investor that has been with Keryx for over a year. While you present a recap of the pharmacological efficacy of Zerenex for treatment of hyperphosphatemia in late stage CKD patients - it's core mission -- you do not make mention of the very important secondary benefits of reduction of IV iron and ESAs in dialysis patients. So, why Keryx has to get FDA approval for its primary purpose, IMHO, the market is really interested in the ability of Zerenex to deliver secondary benefits and in doing so, significantly reduce costs and provide improved convenience and care to patients. Otherwise, the adoption of Zerenex will be much slower and more difficult to overcome switching costs if its only benefit is being a somewhat better phospate binder...

    Also surprising to me is that you fail to discuss the current P2 trials using Zerenex in earlier stage NDD-CKD patients with the specific goal of reducing iron deficiency anemia. Since this market is considerably larger than the late stage market, it gives the company something in the pipeline. Yes, both initiatives are using the same compound and hence there are not a lot of other goodies in the pipeline. But, most of us are fairly comfortable with a thesis that Zerenex will be approved by the FDA for use in late stage kidney disease (comfortable -- not certain because we're dealing with the FDA); we're excited about the P2 trial. As such, you article would appear to be in fact correct about the basics, but misses much of the real opportunity afforded by Zerenex. Also, nothing is said about the recent approval in Japan or the upcoming MMA decision.

    All the very best,
    Don
    Feb 25 07:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: So Far So Good [View article]
    A lot of people said the same things about Amazon in its early days. Way over valued, no barriers to competition, etc. Uh, IMHO, SCTY is positioning itself as THE player in what will be a huge opportunity. They have all of the pieces in place to rule in both residential and commercial. Importantly, they are doing the best job as a one stop shop engineering and finance outfit.

    And, then there is this little electric car company that is working very hard on battery storage and will be rolling out their own battery mfg by year end. As the cost of storage comes down, distributed energy will truly be a game changer. Right now, SolarCity has a commercial product with storage -- that is the canary in the coal mine. My bet is that this Musk guy is going to join two very important businesses at the hip and use onsite storage, along with the storage in the vehicle, to change the game.

    Heck, if the wonderkids at FB can shell out 19B for a Twitter competitor with virtually no moat, SCTY would seem to be one heck of a lot better strategically situated and not out of whack at $7B market cap...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Feb 25 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Galena Biopharma: The Oncologist's Perspective On A Life Saving Therapy [View article]
    Thank you doctor!!! I'm relieved that you have taken it upon yourself to attempt to set the record straight with respect to the science behind Neuvax and Abstral.

    While I believe Galena board and management have made some serious mistakes in handling marketing and their stock selling, I do not find their action's to be commensurate with the attacks on the company. Quite frankly, I get that AF and friends are simply trying to push their short positions. They have a right to do that -- but their attacks, IMHO, have gone beyond that. While I understand that Galena's legal counsel has probably advised Galena management to not get into a public debate over the short attacks, it is a shame that somewhere AF and others are not being held accountable. Free speech is our right. Slanderous attacks, especially those like John Hempton's blog post, should be challenged. But what also should be challenged is the breadth of the attack on Galena -- seemingly coordinated and seemingly beyond a 'coincidence'. This is not the work of independent short sellers, but a concentrated attack on the company. Why?

    All the very best, looking forward to article # 2
    Don
    Feb 19 09:01 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market-Beating Fund: Why Capital One's Our No. 1 [View article]
    As the author pointed out, the real story behind COF is their ability to harvest retail banking share. The banking world of the future, IMHO, will increasingly be driven by electronic services -- as the local brick and motor branches will become increasingly irrelevant. So, COF has a real advantage to the big 'banks' in that they are not saddled with physical branches -- yet continue to reel in the core assets. So, they have a winning strategy in both credit card and retail banking along with a proven track record for impressive growth and smart management. Mighty nice...

    All the very best,
    Don
    Feb 18 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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