Fliujniligui

Why Irish Banks Are Smiling

This is not yet done it seems

This is interesting now. There is a lot of lifetime buying opportunities out there. I agree, things were cheaper in March, but the risk of total loss in all the investments I will discuss later were also much higher then, or seemed so. Now, many bargains still exist and in many instances, problems topped and performance bottomed or is bottoming. Irish Banks are going to be cleaned and there will be remaining capital and earning capacity for the long run once cleanup and dilutive capital raisings are done. There are also other crazy bargains around that may be less stressful than AIB and IRE and still offer a nice upside potential, albeit a smaller one than Irish Banks. Here is what I hoard. I also rate them with a risk factor and reward factor. Mixing all the stuff together gives a good mix of future dividend income.

AIB 8 for risk and 10 for reward
IRE 6/9
BCS 2/5
DB 2/6
Crédit Agricole 1/3
NBG 1/5 --> this one is not cheap but net interest margin is near 4%, bad loan coverage by earnings is about 2-3 times, it is more fatly capitalized than Canadian Banks and it has an Emerging Europe exposure (reminds me BZWBK...)
To be played as Apple and Google of banks. More expensive but probably a long term killer growth thing EWBC ??? It is a buy, this is also a Google Bank now. They serve a niche market, they are so fatly capitalized that they can take their own losses along with a part of UCBH's ones without crimpling their lending capacity by straining capital once business pick up. They are still very cheap, and if we can get them under 13 $ once again, blessed would we be. I did not buy EWBC yet, since I think getting at a lower price is not impossible, and should it never happen, I can play with the other stocks mentionned up there.

Where's the Outrage at the Banks?

I always tought that we are free and responsible. We have the choice to own the bank, home or both. And we have the responsibility to stay solvent in doing whatever we do. With this, I think the winner is always the bank, not the guy who is stimulated by the bank and social pressure to buy home. So I freely and responsibly endorse being a shareholder in bank. This way, I do not complain, nor do I suffer. I just have a small kick beside my job income.

Which Banks Are More Risky, The Largest EU or U.S. Banks?

NBG and Deutsche Bank seem to be among biggest bargains, fat growth plays and required little or no government help.

Deutsche Bank Earnings Offer Reminder That for Banks, Times Are Still Tough

I own this stock and hoard it. It did not need government help and adjusted masterfully in the crisis to a mix of Investment banking with a greater background of retail banking to stabilize the results. We can guesstimate that next quarters will be hard but survivable for DB, but what is the importance of next 6-12 months when you buy the Google of the Banks ?

Roubini's Clarification, Comments on the Economy

Maybe we can invent the |,.;~¤'* shaped recession

National Bank of Greece: Only the Weak Would Sell Now

NBG failed to double in the next 2-3 years, but its fundamentals are stronger now in 2009 than they were when you wrote the column. This means that NBG is just one of my 5 buy, hoard and retire in 10 years investments (I am 28)

Bankruptcies of Large U.S. Corporations Soar

Large bankruptcy means that it targets large companies with large debt/equity ratios. This is easy to avoid investing in large bankruptcies, just look at google finance.

Cramer's Stop Trading! So Long, Stress Test (4/9/09)

I would like such dollop of bad news to occur, I want more financial stocks at better price. Allied Irish Banks is still cheap tho and it should stay this way for a while.

Best and Worst Foreign Bank Stocks YTD

Yea I own some TD. Got 2 dividends since beginning of the year and those are positive more than 10% for the year. Since I got in at 37 in average, this is up by more than 20%! AIB is a good one too, way undervalued with a market cap / equity of 0.1 and if you factor in stress test for 2009-2010, you have a market cap/equity of about 0.175.

Financial Sector 50-Day Moving Average Rising

If you part banks by quality and take only the good and above average ones and look at their bulk 50 days average, you can see it is crazily going back up. I rush in DB AIB TD ING MTB and all of those seems to share better capitalization to RWA and better government independence than C and BAC. Financial sector is heterogeneous, medias and articles like to look at index and to paint the bad financial sector with the same brush and this seems to make consensus. You get a bargain by going against the cheery consensus there.

PPIP: Will Banks Just End Up Selling to Each Other?

Stress test AIB DB IRE ING TD MTB and just see how they get trough it. Buy them, nationalize the rest of the cr*p and then allow cr*p to swap assets with taxpayer money. Taxpayer owns the cr*p so there is no net loss to taxpayers.

National Bank of Greece: Cash in on Kosovo's Independence

Maybe now is time to rush in and buy this... Did that on Allied Irish Banks and now I am going to vulture NBG while I hope for AIB to go back at 2$. NBG seems to have some nice potential and as long Greece Government do not default on its bonds, NBG is going to survive. LTV of 50% on mortgage, no securitized stuff and positive earnings on the year 2008 is superior. Couple this with G20 meeting which push stuff forward and with an eventual return to growth and development in Eastern Europe and an opportunistic well capitalized bank, the dynamite returns have more chance to occur from current price.

Are Citi, Bank of America Pushing Prices Up?

I buy Allied Irish Banks. No securitization there, they issue a loan with the idea of holding it to maturity. Way more sane, even if there are bad loans there, the problem is much more manageable and less shadowed.

Markets Soar as President's Aura Fades

Obama did pre-purge markets. From now on, market discount worse possible outcome while many Obama's policies are promising and sound. Now we just have to waid (buy, hoard) and see what happens next. From dow 7000, positive surprise can occur in next 2 years.

Is the Market Going Lower? Silly Question!

Funny. Canada banking system is more solid than in 1997. Canadian Banks can vulture around and find value in any market and buy it with their ultrafat capital ratios. Canada debt to GDP is rock solid and employment here is still good, especially in the Eastern Canada, where the most socialistic provinces (Québec) are and where 50% of jobs are non cyclical because of this. Canada is indeed not trading at 1997 levels either and this is for a reason.