Fliujniligui's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/269171/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174973-big-surprise-most-big-banks-lack-capital?source=feed#comment-777858 777858 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:37:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162086-why-irish-banks-are-smiling?source=feed#comment-759777 759777
This is interesting now. There is a lot of lifetime buying opportunities out there. I agree, things were cheaper in March, but the risk of total loss in all the investments I will discuss later were also much higher then, or seemed so. Now, many bargains still exist and in many instances, problems topped and performance bottomed or is bottoming. Irish Banks are going to be cleaned and there will be remaining capital and earning capacity for the long run once cleanup and dilutive capital raisings are done. There are also other crazy bargains around that may be less stressful than AIB and IRE and still offer a nice upside potential, albeit a smaller one than Irish Banks. Here is what I hoard. I also rate them with a risk factor and reward factor. Mixing all the stuff together gives a good mix of future dividend income.

AIB 8 for risk and 10 for reward
IRE 6/9
BCS 2/5
DB 2/6
Crédit Agricole 1/3
NBG 1/5 --> this one is not cheap but net interest margin is near 4%, bad loan coverage by earnings is about 2-3 times, it is more fatly capitalized than Canadian Banks and it has an Emerging Europe exposure (reminds me BZWBK...)
To be played as Apple and Google of banks. More expensive but probably a long term killer growth thing EWBC ??? It is a buy, this is also a Google Bank now. They serve a niche market, they are so fatly capitalized that they can take their own losses along with a part of UCBH's ones without crimpling their lending capacity by straining capital once business pick up. They are still very cheap, and if we can get them under 13 $ once again, blessed would we be. I did not buy EWBC yet, since I think getting at a lower price is not impossible, and should it never happen, I can play with the other stocks mentionned up there. ]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 23:58:18 -0500
This is interesting now. There is a lot of lifetime buying opportunities out there. I agree, things were cheaper in March, but the risk of total loss in all the investments I will discuss later were also much higher then, or seemed so. Now, many bargains still exist and in many instances, problems topped and performance bottomed or is bottoming. Irish Banks are going to be cleaned and there will be remaining capital and earning capacity for the long run once cleanup and dilutive capital raisings are done. There are also other crazy bargains around that may be less stressful than AIB and IRE and still offer a nice upside potential, albeit a smaller one than Irish Banks. Here is what I hoard. I also rate them with a risk factor and reward factor. Mixing all the stuff together gives a good mix of future dividend income.

AIB 8 for risk and 10 for reward
IRE 6/9
BCS 2/5
DB 2/6
Crédit Agricole 1/3
NBG 1/5 --> this one is not cheap but net interest margin is near 4%, bad loan coverage by earnings is about 2-3 times, it is more fatly capitalized than Canadian Banks and it has an Emerging Europe exposure (reminds me BZWBK...)
To be played as Apple and Google of banks. More expensive but probably a long term killer growth thing EWBC ??? It is a buy, this is also a Google Bank now. They serve a niche market, they are so fatly capitalized that they can take their own losses along with a part of UCBH's ones without crimpling their lending capacity by straining capital once business pick up. They are still very cheap, and if we can get them under 13 $ once again, blessed would we be. I did not buy EWBC yet, since I think getting at a lower price is not impossible, and should it never happen, I can play with the other stocks mentionned up there. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168614-where-s-the-outrage-at-the-banks?source=feed#comment-729408 729408 Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:19:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156184-which-banks-are-more-risky-the-largest-eu-or-u-s-banks?source=feed#comment-631303 631303 Sat, 15 Aug 2009 21:41:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151868-deutsche-bank-earnings-offer-reminder-that-for-banks-times-are-still-tough?source=feed#comment-605992 605992 Tue, 28 Jul 2009 21:49:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150067-roubini-s-clarification-comments-on-the-economy?source=feed#comment-602636 602636 Sun, 26 Jul 2009 13:04:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/34674-national-bank-of-greece-only-the-weak-would-sell-now?source=feed#comment-556413 556413 Sun, 21 Jun 2009 15:32:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144406-bankruptcies-of-large-u-s-corporations-soar?source=feed#comment-556411 556411 Sun, 21 Jun 2009 15:28:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128815-cramer-s-stop-trading-so-long-stress-test-4-9-09?source=feed#comment-458704 458704 Fri, 10 Apr 2009 09:13:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129377-best-and-worst-foreign-bank-stocks-ytd?source=feed#comment-454265 454265 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 21:57:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129400-financial-sector-50-day-moving-average-rising?source=feed#comment-451917 451917 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 19:31:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129410-ppip-will-banks-just-end-up-selling-to-each-other?source=feed#comment-451916 451916 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 19:27:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66711-national-bank-of-greece-cash-in-on-kosovo-s-independence?source=feed#comment-451896 451896 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 18:31:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128248-are-citi-bank-of-america-pushing-prices-up?source=feed#comment-443369 443369 Sat, 28 Mar 2009 10:41:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125942-markets-soar-as-president-s-aura-fades?source=feed#comment-426096 426096 Sun, 15 Mar 2009 04:04:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123911-is-the-market-going-lower-silly-question?source=feed#comment-413583 413583 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:16:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123745-jeff-immelt-buys-50-000-ge-shares-whoop-dee-doo?source=feed#comment-413580 413580 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:10:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124180-tangible-common-equity-how-much-is-enough?source=feed#comment-413572 413572 ]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:05:54 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121974-foreign-bank-stocks-irish-british-lead-a-sea-of-red?source=feed#comment-400772 400772 Mon, 23 Feb 2009 21:10:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-399020 399020 Sun, 22 Feb 2009 15:53:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121316-fixing-finance-incubating-new-banks?source=feed#comment-394280 394280 Wed, 18 Feb 2009 19:15:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121245-rating-the-top-12-u-s-banks-from-hidden-gems-to-zombies?source=feed#comment-394210 394210
Thanks]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 18:04:17 -0500
Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120532-the-irish-troubles-g7-needs-to-act-now?source=feed#comment-388812 388812
Ireland is still a good place to do business with its low corporate taxes and with the layoffs, a potential businessman looking to hire will be able to discuss a partnership with employees for "sustainable" wages in a difficult environment.]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:49:58 -0500
Ireland is still a good place to do business with its low corporate taxes and with the layoffs, a potential businessman looking to hire will be able to discuss a partnership with employees for "sustainable" wages in a difficult environment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120601-stress-test-it-s-time-for-transparency?source=feed#comment-388810 388810
The exercise is funny and educative. To home stress test a SBB such as Citigroup would mean a big headache and would end without any predictive value.]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:45:37 -0500
The exercise is funny and educative. To home stress test a SBB such as Citigroup would mean a big headache and would end without any predictive value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120499-nationalizing-the-u-s-banking-sector-there-s-no-choice?source=feed#comment-388803 388803 Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:24:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120564-fair-value-for-the-s-p-it-s-not-440?source=feed#comment-388795 388795 Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:11:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119946-time-to-buy-bank-stocks?source=feed#comment-388039 388039
I am not very impressed by this article. Why not buy ICICI Bank directly. Read "Boomers, your crisis has come". India and China are not at the same stage as USA in their cycles. They are probably in the high zone right now, with everyone moving forward and raging trough unprecented opportunity for growth and development. Why try to stick with American banks whose share price seems low but quality seems to justify the situation ?

If you want to play low price with not too bad quality, try Allied Irish Banks. If you want a bank as big as BAC but who did not need government help and managed trough crisis unscathed and growing in Good Banking Business (Read buying Deutsche Postbank) and whose share price still plummetted 80% off highs, try Deutsche Bank. If you want a p/e around 8 in banking activities with a sustainable dividend of about 6% right now, look north, Canada is just there, with a debt load and budget deficit who will prevent your Canadian dollar dividend to lose value... This is Toronto Dominion Bank. No housing boom in most of Canada, no subprime mess at TD and core tier-1 at 9%. (USD may stand still or go down in the very long term)

You like insurance companies ? Try MFC, a losing AAA company for last quarter, but soundly managed and capitalized. It is suffering a normal downturn like in a classical recession. Its business viability is not called into question, and this is a reason why my wage insurance policy is with them.

Right now, Americans will drive a great benefit to hold assets in solvent countries with less bad fundamentals than what is offered in USA. Europe, Emerging and Canada are the place to protect yourself from fed's reckless dollar printing.
Why

If you really want to stick with US Financials]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 20:30:50 -0500
I am not very impressed by this article. Why not buy ICICI Bank directly. Read "Boomers, your crisis has come". India and China are not at the same stage as USA in their cycles. They are probably in the high zone right now, with everyone moving forward and raging trough unprecented opportunity for growth and development. Why try to stick with American banks whose share price seems low but quality seems to justify the situation ?

If you want to play low price with not too bad quality, try Allied Irish Banks. If you want a bank as big as BAC but who did not need government help and managed trough crisis unscathed and growing in Good Banking Business (Read buying Deutsche Postbank) and whose share price still plummetted 80% off highs, try Deutsche Bank. If you want a p/e around 8 in banking activities with a sustainable dividend of about 6% right now, look north, Canada is just there, with a debt load and budget deficit who will prevent your Canadian dollar dividend to lose value... This is Toronto Dominion Bank. No housing boom in most of Canada, no subprime mess at TD and core tier-1 at 9%. (USD may stand still or go down in the very long term)

You like insurance companies ? Try MFC, a losing AAA company for last quarter, but soundly managed and capitalized. It is suffering a normal downturn like in a classical recession. Its business viability is not called into question, and this is a reason why my wage insurance policy is with them.

Right now, Americans will drive a great benefit to hold assets in solvent countries with less bad fundamentals than what is offered in USA. Europe, Emerging and Canada are the place to protect yourself from fed's reckless dollar printing.
Why

If you really want to stick with US Financials]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119438-should-ge-maintain-its-dividend?source=feed#comment-381816 381816 Mon, 09 Feb 2009 22:08:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119338-peter-grandich-bullish-on-oil-uranium-and-canadian-banks?source=feed#comment-381804 381804 Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:56:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119017-i-have-a-bad-feeling-about-this-market?source=feed#comment-379860 379860
For now, any rally will be an opportunity to get out of winning positions. The only stock I will keep during a time is Allied Irish Banks since this one probably felt the bottom of capitulation and pessimism. Rest of the market has to do what AIB did.]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 10:50:31 -0500
For now, any rally will be an opportunity to get out of winning positions. The only stock I will keep during a time is Allied Irish Banks since this one probably felt the bottom of capitulation and pessimism. Rest of the market has to do what AIB did.]]>