Financial Crisis and the Need for Reliable Information [View article]
Exactly.
Investors have been scalded and have no one to trust.
The government response has been smoke and mirrors and rewarding the culpable and the lazy.
Without trust people will continue to run for cover.
Let's see: debt leveraging by the Fed to solve debt leveraging combined with no transparency and rating agencies that can't be trusted. This doesn't add up to a a bottom, a quick recovery, or good news in the next several years in my opinion.
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
Most of the models and experts have only a 30-50 year history, at best.
None of them can account for the current society and economic conditions.
This downturn is different from the 2001 tech bubble or the1981 blip or the 1970's slogging or even the 1929 crash and subsequent depression.
Very little is the same, except the up and down lines on the chart and the conviction that societies and civilizations can be predicted.
We're still debating why all the great civilizations of East and West failed and crashed yet the market is predictable?
Just when you think sentiment is indicating a bottom and "capitulation" a new bottom in the market or established order will occur.
On Nov 30 05:51 PM sickofthehype wrote:
> One of the best contrarian indicators is sentiment, and after reading > the comments it appears we're most likely at least 'near' a bottom. > > > 1,000 on the Dow? Nice. Go back to your shack in the mountains and > make sure you have plenty of ammo in the guns. >
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
People who have been responsible yet gotten screwed-over tend to be hostile.
On Nov 29 12:05 PM Enough wrote:
> The hostile responses to the article are very disappointing and the > caliber of people visiting this site has decreased significantly. > I thought this was a place for healthy debate, not childish name > calling. > > I commend the author for a researched and thoughtful article.
Credit Crisis Watch: Are the Markets Thawing? [View article]
LOL
I enjoyed reading that.
I agree with your point that solving a credit bubble with more credit, either to institutions or individuals who mismanaged the debt the first time, is throwing gas on the fire.
They may turn around "sentiment" and get banks to lend more but with the fed spending taxpyer dollars on the institutions that leveraged themselves into crisis; how can that end well?
The institutions and individuals will simply engage in more debt leveraging and spending until the party really ends.
Better to sink the tug boat in the harbor than the Battleship in the Pacific.
On Nov 28 11:19 AM axelrod608 wrote:
> I regain faith in Americans when I read comments like the above. > There are clearer heads out in investorland than in DC. > > The thesis of the article is based on a faulty assumption - that > the credit markets of 2006 were "normal". Nothing could be further > from the truth. After a decade of a flood of cheap, easy, unlimited > credit by Alan "Bubbles" Greenspin, the nation's financial markets > were awash in excessive credit exuberance. And the assumption that > returning credit markets to that bloated condition will somehow "fix" > the economy is ludicrous. > > The credit markets and the bloated financial corporations we brought > into the 21st century were and still are unsustainable. The bubble > can no more be reinflated than can the Hindenburg. And there's Hank > and Ben pouring gas onto the fire. > > Change ? Hope ? Based on the choices other than Volker that the next > Pres has made, I see a future of seamless policy to keep shoveling > dollars by the cubic yard into the inferno. I am skeptical of these > functionaries' grasp of the underlying problem > > The rules need to change. The dinosaurs need to be allowed to die. > And if federal money is to be thrown around, let it go to small and > mid-size businesses with hands on owners, reasonably compensatesd > officers and employees, not to the goons that once called themselves > "masters of the universe" who, it turns out, can't run a company > anywhere but into the ground. > > The unfixable cannot be fixed. The 2006 credit market was Humpty > Dumpty. He fell.
S & P of triple 777's like the slot machine or lower.
When people realize the machine keeps taking their money, they'll leave the casino. Many have been staying and playing and losing. The whales get bailed out with money from hiked prices at the buffet and bar, but the regular folk just pay and lose.
Time to go home and make some mac & cheese and pay down debt.
The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 1 of 3) [View article]
Axel - What if Joe and James don't make their $20 ($10 each) and Jane had sold them each a horse for $10? Ben the banker used all their deposited money to make a bet at the race track and lost half of it. The money is a promise only and there is not gold in the bank to back up it's value. Ben the Banker goes to Henry in the Government, who raises taxes on Joe, James, and Jane to give to Ben to cover his bad bet on CDS at the race track (whose went lame halfway through the race from being pumped with steroids by an unethical trainer).
Now...don't you think Joe, James, and Jane will at some point sharpen up their pitchforks and tell Ben and Henry where to stick it?
I'm looking forward to parts 2 and 3; I think that is where more of the meat you were wanting resides.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
Envision this: L.A. Riots times 100.
That is what is coming, Obama or no.
The abused responsible of the middle class are buying weapons, not houses or stocks.
The inner cities will collapse in "gimme" riots, there will be millions of shocked blue staters who won't know what to do, and the rest will try to restore LIBERTY and the CONSTITUTION.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
RTF - Agreed.
The responsible middle class, the backbone of any nation, has been sold out, bent over, and the train is off the rails.
Why should I invest in ANYTHING if I'm going to get fleeced and put in a pen to have a wolves watch over me?
Not going to happen because the sheeple will eventually awake from their Monday Night Football slumber and REVOLT - quit paying their bills, quit paying their taxes, and let the Elite and Entitlement classes fall.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
EXACTLY!
On Nov 09 11:45 AM RTF 360 wrote:
> The paradigm was shattered. > The American Dream is dead. > > The younger generation is not interested in matrimony, making a family, > becoming shackled for life to auto and housing debt or demonstrating > dutiful allegiance to an employer or a government. > > How can you trust a system that fleeces you of your retirement and > home equity after paying into it for 35 years and then having it > default. > > Yo, Barney ...wipe that joy juice off your chin and tell us what > you did to our home equity.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
*More* important than supply...
On Nov 09 11:57 AM Eric W. wrote:
> Most important than supply: > > 1. Potential buyers do not want to get screwed by the bank so why > buy in the first plac? The banks played craps with invested mortgage > money, the government taxed property owners to bail them out. Why > should I invest in being punished for paying a mortgage? > > 2. In 2005 the Supreme Court rulled municipalities could use eminent > domain to sell personal property to developers to increase tax revenue. > So...why should an individual invest in property that can be taken > away? >
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
Most important than supply:
1. Potential buyers do not want to get screwed by the bank so why buy in the first plac? The banks played craps with invested mortgage money, the government taxed property owners to bail them out. Why should I invest in being punished for paying a mortgage?
2. In 2005 the Supreme Court rulled municipalities could use eminent domain to sell personal property to developers to increase tax revenue. So...why should an individual invest in property that can be taken away?
'The Shallowest Generation': A Rebuttal [View article]
Global warming? Oy vey...
It's not an individual but a societal shift so discussing your finances misses the point.
It's not just baby-boomers but all generations since.
You weren't saving money because you were raising your kids? I can understand that, but it is a legacy of low wages, high taxes, and obscene health care costs. I won't argue that illegal aliens funnel money out and get education and health care for free; but the boomers and others in Government have allowed it - that's the point.
Live for today, tax and spend, don't save, use leveraged debt, and there will always be a new car in the driveway every 3 years and food in the grocery store.
Financial Crisis and the Need for Reliable Information [View article]
Investors have been scalded and have no one to trust.
The government response has been smoke and mirrors and rewarding the culpable and the lazy.
Without trust people will continue to run for cover.
Let's see: debt leveraging by the Fed to solve debt leveraging combined with no transparency and rating agencies that can't be trusted. This doesn't add up to a a bottom, a quick recovery, or good news in the next several years in my opinion.
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
None of them can account for the current society and economic conditions.
This downturn is different from the 2001 tech bubble or the1981 blip or the 1970's slogging or even the 1929 crash and subsequent depression.
Very little is the same, except the up and down lines on the chart and the conviction that societies and civilizations can be predicted.
We're still debating why all the great civilizations of East and West failed and crashed yet the market is predictable?
Just when you think sentiment is indicating a bottom and "capitulation" a new bottom in the market or established order will occur.
On Nov 30 05:51 PM sickofthehype wrote:
> One of the best contrarian indicators is sentiment, and after reading
> the comments it appears we're most likely at least 'near' a bottom.
>
>
> 1,000 on the Dow? Nice. Go back to your shack in the mountains and
> make sure you have plenty of ammo in the guns.
>
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
Normal rules do not apply, and optimism in the face of the barbarian hordes is foolish.
I don't want it, but it is very possible that Rome will burn.
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
People who have been responsible yet gotten screwed-over tend to be hostile.
On Nov 29 12:05 PM Enough wrote:
> The hostile responses to the article are very disappointing and the
> caliber of people visiting this site has decreased significantly.
> I thought this was a place for healthy debate, not childish name
> calling.
>
> I commend the author for a researched and thoughtful article.
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
Black Friday vs. Cyber Monday: Gen X and Y vs. the Baby Boomers [View article]
The silent generation are buying assault rifles and ammo to restore the Constitution ;-)
If you follow the Sheeple you'll get fleeced sooner or later...
Credit Crisis Watch: Are the Markets Thawing? [View article]
I enjoyed reading that.
I agree with your point that solving a credit bubble with more credit, either to institutions or individuals who mismanaged the debt the first time, is throwing gas on the fire.
They may turn around "sentiment" and get banks to lend more but with the fed spending taxpyer dollars on the institutions that leveraged themselves into crisis; how can that end well?
The institutions and individuals will simply engage in more debt leveraging and spending until the party really ends.
Better to sink the tug boat in the harbor than the Battleship in the Pacific.
On Nov 28 11:19 AM axelrod608 wrote:
> I regain faith in Americans when I read comments like the above.
> There are clearer heads out in investorland than in DC.
>
> The thesis of the article is based on a faulty assumption - that
> the credit markets of 2006 were "normal". Nothing could be further
> from the truth. After a decade of a flood of cheap, easy, unlimited
> credit by Alan "Bubbles" Greenspin, the nation's financial markets
> were awash in excessive credit exuberance. And the assumption that
> returning credit markets to that bloated condition will somehow "fix"
> the economy is ludicrous.
>
> The credit markets and the bloated financial corporations we brought
> into the 21st century were and still are unsustainable. The bubble
> can no more be reinflated than can the Hindenburg. And there's Hank
> and Ben pouring gas onto the fire.
>
> Change ? Hope ? Based on the choices other than Volker that the next
> Pres has made, I see a future of seamless policy to keep shoveling
> dollars by the cubic yard into the inferno. I am skeptical of these
> functionaries' grasp of the underlying problem
>
> The rules need to change. The dinosaurs need to be allowed to die.
> And if federal money is to be thrown around, let it go to small and
> mid-size businesses with hands on owners, reasonably compensatesd
> officers and employees, not to the goons that once called themselves
> "masters of the universe" who, it turns out, can't run a company
> anywhere but into the ground.
>
> The unfixable cannot be fixed. The 2006 credit market was Humpty
> Dumpty. He fell.
Warning: New Lows Ahead [View article]
S & P of triple 777's like the slot machine or lower.
When people realize the machine keeps taking their money, they'll leave the casino. Many have been staying and playing and losing. The whales get bailed out with money from hiked prices at the buffet and bar, but the regular folk just pay and lose.
Time to go home and make some mac & cheese and pay down debt.
The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 1 of 3) [View article]
Axel - What if Joe and James don't make their $20 ($10 each) and Jane had sold them each a horse for $10? Ben the banker used all their deposited money to make a bet at the race track and lost half of it. The money is a promise only and there is not gold in the bank to back up it's value. Ben the Banker goes to Henry in the Government, who raises taxes on Joe, James, and Jane to give to Ben to cover his bad bet on CDS at the race track (whose went lame halfway through the race from being pumped with steroids by an unethical trainer).
Now...don't you think Joe, James, and Jane will at some point sharpen up their pitchforks and tell Ben and Henry where to stick it?
I'm looking forward to parts 2 and 3; I think that is where more of the meat you were wanting resides.
Cheers,
Eric
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
Envision this: L.A. Riots times 100.
That is what is coming, Obama or no.
The abused responsible of the middle class are buying weapons, not houses or stocks.
The inner cities will collapse in "gimme" riots, there will be millions of shocked blue staters who won't know what to do, and the rest will try to restore LIBERTY and the CONSTITUTION.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
RTF - Agreed.
The responsible middle class, the backbone of any nation, has been sold out, bent over, and the train is off the rails.
Why should I invest in ANYTHING if I'm going to get fleeced and put in a pen to have a wolves watch over me?
Not going to happen because the sheeple will eventually awake from their Monday Night Football slumber and REVOLT - quit paying their bills, quit paying their taxes, and let the Elite and Entitlement classes fall.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
EXACTLY!
On Nov 09 11:45 AM RTF 360 wrote:
> The paradigm was shattered.
> The American Dream is dead.
>
> The younger generation is not interested in matrimony, making a family,
> becoming shackled for life to auto and housing debt or demonstrating
> dutiful allegiance to an employer or a government.
>
> How can you trust a system that fleeces you of your retirement and
> home equity after paying into it for 35 years and then having it
> default.
>
> Yo, Barney ...wipe that joy juice off your chin and tell us what
> you did to our home equity.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
On Nov 09 11:57 AM Eric W. wrote:
> Most important than supply:
>
> 1. Potential buyers do not want to get screwed by the bank so why
> buy in the first plac? The banks played craps with invested mortgage
> money, the government taxed property owners to bail them out. Why
> should I invest in being punished for paying a mortgage?
>
> 2. In 2005 the Supreme Court rulled municipalities could use eminent
> domain to sell personal property to developers to increase tax revenue.
> So...why should an individual invest in property that can be taken
> away?
>
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices [View article]
1. Potential buyers do not want to get screwed by the bank so why buy in the first plac? The banks played craps with invested mortgage money, the government taxed property owners to bail them out. Why should I invest in being punished for paying a mortgage?
2. In 2005 the Supreme Court rulled municipalities could use eminent domain to sell personal property to developers to increase tax revenue. So...why should an individual invest in property that can be taken away?
'The Shallowest Generation': A Rebuttal [View article]
It's not an individual but a societal shift so discussing your finances misses the point.
It's not just baby-boomers but all generations since.
You weren't saving money because you were raising your kids? I can understand that, but it is a legacy of low wages, high taxes, and obscene health care costs. I won't argue that illegal aliens funnel money out and get education and health care for free; but the boomers and others in Government have allowed it - that's the point.
Live for today, tax and spend, don't save, use leveraged debt, and there will always be a new car in the driveway every 3 years and food in the grocery store.
OOOPS!