ebworthen

Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain?

FED Plan: devaluation of the dollar and inflation.

This is the only way to attempt to pay off the debt and over time make up for the overvalued housing and commercial real estate debacle.

What's the Fair Value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

Fair Value?

Well...the P/E ratios have to be accurate, which they aren't.

If employment doesn't return, and tax revenues and company earnings don't improve (60-70% consumer driven economy) than P/E and DOW valuation goes out the window.

If government spending and liquidity continues, and the consumer and jobs don't recover, DOW valuation could revisit the 1930-1932 scenario where the market determined that valuations were 89% too high in October 1929 - it just took about two years of rallies and falls for true valuation to be determined.

We are at a moment in time, and it is all speculation. The only reality is are people working producing valued goods and services enough to grow the economy? It would appear we are still on the downward slope of deleveraging, debt, and employment.

Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Disconnect from Fundamentals

Our boat is held together with oakum, bailing twine, and a sail made from sewn shirts off the backs of the crew.

The storm appears to have passed, we may make it to that distant shore, we may have to throw more of the crew overboard (just make sure it's the old ones and the lower castes).

The captain, the first officer, and the quartermaster are optimistic - but they stand to have the most rum and wenching if we reach that distant shore called "recovery" and they will be the last to go overboard.

Unless...of course...there is mutiny...

Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings: Some Numbers That Don't Add Up

Karl,

This seems to be more of the same, massaging bad news to make it look better, then putting some spin on it and saying "less worse than expected" so there is no short term pain for the stock.

In Alcoa's case, I'm certain that the can they are kicking down the road is an aluminum one ;-)

stay strong - a bear who missed the boat eh? I'm sure there were passengers who missed the Titanic's last voyage whose feelings changed.

Cheers

Gone Nowhere in 8 Years

Notice that our government has bought two of the worst performers on this list, Citigroup and General Motors, and passed the bill to those citizens and their children who do (and will) WORK for a living and PAY their bills and are NEVER bailed out by anyone other than themselves.

Nothing quite like a government that sells it's citizens down the river.

King George would be proud, or laughing, or both while the Founding Fathers are likely rolling over in their graves.

Cramer's Stop Trading! Follow Paulson into Citi (8/27/09)

P/E ratios at historic highs, meaning everything is overbought.

Paulson is buying Citi - and we don't know what the other side of his trade is.

Cramer missed the crash, and only said sell when the music had stopped. Now he is saying buy, at the peak of a 50% rally. The market is down ~ 20% from last year, and I'm at break even or a little ahead. I'd rather have that, than buy magic beans only to find that they grow thistle and hemlock.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

If you look at the one year charts of all the markets, US, Europe, and Asia, all have the 50 day SMA crossing the 200 day SMA in June-July. All the indexes are now above both, with the 200 day SMA just starting to level out.

To me this indicates these markets are all overbought unless you believe that somehow, miraculously, markets will be able to pull the anchor of unemployment, deleveraging, deflation (with an inflation whiplash to follow in the coming years), and debt unwinding out of the abyss they are still in.

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

Cramer is entertaining, he doesn't have to be right to make money.

I've heard him give conflicting advice on stocks and in general; he swings from one direction to the other with the market.

No doubt he can afford to be wrong.

Krugman is too bullish by far.

Quick, label me a "perma-bear" so you don't have to listen to the following:

Nothing has been fixed.

We have only delayed the inevitable.

People without jobs, or working fewer hours, and being taxed more spend less or don't pay their mortgage and bills.

We saved the banks and insurance companies but not the average citizen.

That whiplash of reality will come around, sooner or later, no matter what Paul Krugman or Jim Cramer say.