doubleguns'  Instablog

This from Northwest Territorial Mint. Seems the first Stagecoach Silver was a big hit and now in addition to the 1 oz bar they have come out with a 1 oz round. Both coins are divisable into quarter oz pieces along precut lines with 1/4 oz marked on each quarter oz. 

The Logo says it all "For when you have to get out of Dodge."

No more argueing about how to make change. I am still waiting for the "Get out of Dodge" gold. 

My friends and I were watching the geese fly south in August. Kinda early we thought. Now the wasps are invading my house. I have killed 6 in a day, several days in a row,  after a hard days work just so I could sleep without being attacked in bed.

What's up?!!

I think we are going to have a very cold winter. Even the wasps are looking for some place to winter over. 9 years in this house and nothing like it before. Something's up!!

UNG and all of the heating sources might be a good investment this winter. Flyswatters too!!!

Sept 2008 was the last time that we say the VIX around 20. In October 2008 it was around 90. Today we are approaching 20 again.

Don't get to comfortable. Best know where the eject handle is.

Got stops in place?

$6250 for a guided hunt in Alberta close to Grand Prarie, closer to Debolt. Nearly 5300 total miles. Stateside a fill up for my Avalanche costs about $65-- in Canada about $98. I don't run it flat out empty. 45 hours on the road up, yea we had to stop at a few "stores" on the way up. Gander mountain, Cabelas, Bass pro and Canadian tire (Canadian sporting goods). Some times, very rarely, guys do shop. Trip back was 39.5 hours. No shopping.

Total cost of gas, tolls and 1 night stay in a hotel  was $1287.00 split 3 ways $429.00

Got to hunting area 1 day early so we had to stay in a hotel one night. We could only sleep 2 in the bed of the truck and everyone wanted a shower. When we checked in at the camp on Sunday we helped pack up 2 trucks, checked the sights on our rifles and headed off to spike camp 30 miles from main camp. We set up camp and still had 1 hour of day light so the guides took us out for an introduction of what we would be doing for the week.

Me and my guide had walked about 20 minutes from camp and set up along a trail. He began to call and smack the brush with a small paddle. Within minutes we got a response and a moose was coming in. My first observation was small trees about 50 yards out were moving, occasionally followed by the smack of his antlers on the trees. A sound like someone smacking a 2X4 with a hammer. Then 40 yds out the trees were moving, then 30 yards out. Suddenly I say something brown flash across my scope then it passed again and I notices it was partially green. WTFO went through my head. Then it stopped moving and I realized it was the antlers with vegetation piled up in them. 2 steps later and with a little devil on my shoulder shouting SHOOT!!! SHOOT!!! SHOOOOOOOT!!!!!!,  I shot.

I shot, I just couldn't help it. The devil made me do it. The moose lurched forward 3 steps and I shot again and down he went. 2 shots from my Merkel side by side rifle in 9.3x74R and it was game over. Photos, back slapping and a realization that the devil on my shoulder was actually my guide ended quickly since it was getting dark. We walked back to camp to get the quad, wagon and outfitter along with some manpower to move the beast. When we returned the outfitter said "he is to big for the wagon". I had no idea how big he was since this was my first moose hunt.

We split him in half at the third rib and we took him out in the wagon in two trips.

When we skinned him out we found that both shots went through the same hole and came to rest under the skin on the far side 2 inches apart. I have never done that before and I have a lot of hunting under my belt. Tip for guide $400. Cost of 3 bullets $9.00. I only used one sighter round. It was good. Cost of food on the road along with misc drinks, pogey bait and what-nots, $240 up and back.

When we got back home we spent about 6 hours processing the meat and 12 hours canning 84 quarts of moose meat. The rest is grind and a few steaks from the back straps and tenderloins. He was just to old, about 13 yrs old, to make many steaks.

Chewy was the word my outfitter said about this moose. He was right. We sampled a few beautiful steaks while processing the animal and gave up chewing after 10- minutes. I will be eating ground moose for a couple of years. Canning process would tenderize oak boards so that meat is going to be good too.

Cost breakdown, 6250+429+400+ 240+9 = $7328.00
Hours invested 45+39.5+6+12= 102.5 hours driving and processing.

Hunting time---- HALF AN HOUR.

Seems like a lot of money and time for a half hour hunt, just don't tell my wife.

I have plans for an elk hunt next year, don't tell her that either. I will break it to her once she has had about half a bottle of wine after a great moose meal.

I guess I should add the cost of the wine to the cost breakdown.

Looks like the issue in Iran is going to get solved soon. I have enclosed an article from Stratfor.com.

Might be a good time to hedge on oil.

Got oil!!!!

GET OIL!!!!



Subject: Geopolitical Weekly : Two Leaks and the Deepening Iran Crisis


Stratfor
---------------------------



TWO LEAKS AND THE DEEPENING IRAN CRISIS

By George Friedman

Two major leaks occurred this weekend over the Iran matter.

In the first, The New York Times published an article reporting that staff
at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear
oversight
group, had produced an unreleased report saying that Iran was much more
advanced in its nuclear program than the IAEA had thought previously.
According to the report, Iran now has all the data needed to design a
nuclear weapon. The New York Times article added that U.S. intelligence was
re-examining the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of 2007, which had
stated that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.

The second leak occurred in the British daily The Times, which reported
that
the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's highly
publicized
secret visit to Moscow on Sept. 7 was to provide the Russians with a
list of
Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran's nuclear weapons program.

The second revelation was directly tied to the first. There were many,
including STRATFOR, who felt that Iran did not have the non-nuclear
disciplines needed for rapid progress toward a nuclear device. Putting the
two pieces together, the presence of Russian personnel in Iran would mean
that the Iranians had obtained the needed expertise from the Russians. It
would also mean that the Russians were not merely a factor in whether there
would be effective sanctions but also in whether and when the Iranians
would
obtain a nuclear weapon.

We would guess that the leak to The New York Times came from U.S.
government
sources, because that seems to be a prime vector of leaks from the Obama
administration and because the article contained information on the NIE
review. Given that National Security Adviser James Jones tended to dismiss
the report on Sunday television, we would guess the report leaked from
elsewhere in the administration. The Times leak could have come from
multiple sources, but we have noted a tendency of the Israelis to leak
through the British daily on national security issues. (The article
contained substantial details on the visit and appeared written from the
Israeli point of view.) Neither leak can be taken at face value, of course.
But it is clear that these were deliberate leaks -- people rarely risk
felony charges leaking such highly classified material -- and even if they
were not coordinated, they delivered the same message, true or not.

The Iranian Time Frame and the Russian Role The message was twofold. First,
previous assumptions on time frames on Iran are no longer valid, and
worst-case assumptions must now be assumed. The Iranians are in fact moving
rapidly toward a weapon; have been extremely effective at deceiving U.S.
intelligence (read, they deceived the Bush administration, but the Obama
administration has figured it out); and therefore, we are moving toward a
decisive moment with Iran. Second, this situation is the direct
responsibility of Russian nuclear expertise. Whether this expertise came
from former employees of the Russian nuclear establishment now looking for
work, Russian officials assigned to Iran or unemployed scientists sent to
Iran by the Russians is immaterial. The Israelis -- and the Obama
administration -- must hold the Russians responsible for the current state
of Iran's weapons program, and by extension, Moscow bears responsibility
for
any actions that Israel or the United States might take to solve the
problem.

We would suspect that the leaks were coordinated. From the Israeli point of
view, having said publicly that they are prepared to follow the American
lead and allow this phase of diplomacy to play out, there clearly had to be
more going on than just last week's Geneva talks. From the American
point of
view, while the Russians have indicated that participating in sanctions on
gasoline imports by Iran is not out of the question, Russian President
Dmitri Medvedev did not clearly state that Russia would cooperate, nor has
anything been heard from Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on the
subject. The Russian leadership appears to be playing "good cop, bad
cop" on
the matter, and the credibility of anything they say on Iran has little
weight in Washington.

It would seem to us that the United States and Israel decided to up the
ante
fairly dramatically in the wake of the Oct. 1 meeting with Iran in Geneva.
As IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei visits Iran, massive new urgency has now
been
added to the issue. But we must remember that Iran knows whether it has had
help from Russian scientists; that is something that can't be bluffed.
Given
that this specific charge has been made -- and as of Monday not challenged
by Iran or Russia -- indicates to us more is going on than an attempt to
bluff the Iranians into concessions. Unless the two leaks together are
completely bogus, and we doubt that, the United States and Israel are
leaking information already well known to the Iranians. They are telling
Tehran that its deception campaign has been penetrated, and by extension
are
telling it that it faces military action -- particularly if massive
sanctions are impractical because of more Russian obstruction.

If Netanyahu went to Moscow to deliver this intelligence to the Russians,
the only surprise would have been the degree to which the Israelis had
penetrated the program, not that the Russians were there. The Russian
intelligence services are superbly competent, and keep track of stray
nuclear scientists carefully. They would not be surprised by the charge,
only by Israel's knowledge of it.

This, of course leaves open an enormous question. Certainly, the Russians
appear to have worked with the Iranians on some security issues and have
played with the idea of providing the Iranians more substantial military
equipment. But deliberately aiding Iran in building a nuclear device seems
beyond Russia's interests in two ways. First, while Russia wants to goad
the
United States, it does not itself really want a nuclear Iran. Second, in
goading the United States, the Russians know not to go too far; helping
Iran
build a nuclear weapon would clearly cross a redline, triggering reactions.

A number of possible explanations present themselves. The leak to The Times
might be wrong. But The Times is not a careless newspaper: It accepts leaks
only from certified sources. The Russian scientists might be private
citizens accepting Iranian employment. But while this is possible,
Moscow is
very careful about what Russian nuclear engineers do with their time. Or
the
Russians might be providing enough help to goad the United States but not
enough to ever complete the job. Whatever the explanation, the leaks paint
the Russians as more reckless than they have appeared, assuming the leaks
are true.

And whatever their veracity, the leaks -- the content of which clearly was
discussed in detail among the P-5+1 prior to and during the Geneva
meetings,
regardless of how long they have been known by Western intelligence -- were
made for two reasons. The first was to tell the Iranians that the nuclear
situation is now about to get out of hand, and that attempting to manage
the
negotiations through endless delays will fail because the United Nations is
aware of just how far Tehran has come with its weapons program. The second
was to tell Moscow that the issue is no longer whether the Russians will
cooperate on sanctions, but the consequence to Russia's relations with the
United States and at least the United Kingdom, France and, most important,
possibly Germany. If these leaks are true, they are game changers.

We have focused on the Iranian situation not because it is significant in
itself, but because it touches on a great number of other crucial
international issues. It is now entangled in the Iraqi, Afghan, Israeli,
Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese issues, all of them high-stakes
matters. It
is entangled in Russian relations with Europe and the United States. It is
entangled in U.S.-European relationships and with relationships within
Europe. It touches on the U.S.-Chinese relationship. It even touches on
U.S.
relations with Venezuela and some other Latin American countries. It is
becoming the Gordian knot of international relations.

STRATFOR first focused on the Russian connection with Iran in the wake of
the Iranian elections and resulting unrest, when a crowd of Rafsanjani
supporters began chanting "Death to Russia," not one of the top-10
chants in
Iran. That caused us to focus on the cooperation between Russia and Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on
security matters. We were aware of some degree of technical cooperation on
military hardware, and of course on Russian involvement in Iran's civilian
nuclear program. We were also of the view that the Iranians were
unlikely to
progress quickly with their nuclear program. We were not aware that Russian
scientists were directly involved in Iran's military nuclear project, which
is not surprising, given that such involvement would be Iran's single-most
important state secret -- and Russia's, too.

A Question of Timing
But there is a mystery here as well. To have any impact, the Russian
involvement must have been under way for years. The United States has tried
to track rogue nuclear scientists and engineers -- anyone who could
contribute to nuclear proliferation -- since the 1990s. The Israelis must
have had their own program on this, too. Both countries, as well as
European
intelligence services, were focused on Iran's program and the
whereabouts of
Russian scientists. It is hard to believe that they only just now found
out.
If we were to guess, we would say Russian involvement has been under way
since just after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, when the Russians
decided
that the United States was a direct threat to its national security.

Therefore, the decision suddenly to confront the Russians, and suddenly to
leak U.N. reports -- much more valuable than U.S. reports, which are easier
for the Europeans to ignore -- cannot simply be because the United States
and Israel just obtained this information. The IAEA, hostile to the United
States since the invasion of Iraq and very much under the influence of the
Europeans, must have decided to shift its evaluation of Iran. But far more
significant is the willingness of the Israelis first to confront the
Russians and then leak about Russian involvement, something that obviously
compromises Israeli sources and methods. And that means the Israelis no
longer consider the preservation of their intelligence operation in Iran
(or
wherever it was carried out) as of the essence.

Two conclusions can be drawn. First, the Israelis no longer need to add to
their knowledge of Russian involvement; they know what they need to know.
And second, the Israelis do not expect Iranian development to continue much
longer; otherwise, maintaining the intelligence capability would take
precedence over anything else.

It follows from this that the use of this intelligence in diplomatic
confrontations with Russians and in a British newspaper serves a greater
purpose than the integrity of the source system. And that means that the
Israelis expect a resolution in the very near future -- the only reason
they
would have blown their penetration of the Russian-Iranian system.

Possible Outcomes
There are two possible outcomes here. The first is that having revealed the
extent of the Iranian program and having revealed the Russian role in a
credible British newspaper, the Israelis and the Americans (whose own leak
in The New York Times underlined the growing urgency of action) are hoping
that the Iranians realize that they are facing war and that the Russians
realize that they are facing a massive crisis in their relations with the
West. If that happens, then the Russians might pull their scientists and
engineers, join in the sanctions and force the Iranians to abandon their
program.

The second possibility is that the Russians will continue to play the
spoiler on sanctions and will insist that they are not giving support to
the
Iranians. This leaves the military option, which would mean broad-based
action, primarily by the United States, against Iran's nuclear facilities.
Any military operation would involve keeping the Strait of Hormuz clear,
meaning naval action, and we now know that there are more nuclear
facilities
than previously discussed. So while the war for the most part would be
confined to the air and sea, it would be extensive nonetheless.

Sanctions or war remain the two options, and which one is chosen depends on
Moscow's actions. The leaks this weekend have made clear that the United
States and Israel have positioned themselves such that not much time
remains. We have now moved from a view of Iran as a long-term threat to
Iran
as a much more immediate threat thanks to the Russians.

The least that can be said about this is that the Obama administration and
Israel are trying to reshape the negotiations with the Iranians and
Russians. The most that can be said is that the Americans and Israelis are
preparing the public for war. Polls now indicate that more than 60 percent
of the U.S. public now favors military action against Iran. From a
political
point of view, it has become easier for U.S. President Barack Obama to act
than to not act. This, too, is being transmitted to the Iranians and
Russians.

It is not clear to us that the Russians or Iranians are getting the message
yet. They have convinced themselves that Obama is unlikely to act
because he
is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case
where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances
for
war. But the leaks this weekend have strikingly limited the options and
timelines of the United States and Israel. They also have put the spotlight
on Obama at a time when he already is struggling with health care and
Afghanistan. History is rarely considerate of presidential plans, and in
this case, the leaks have started to force Obama's hand.


This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with
attribution
to stratfor.com.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.

07:35am on Sept 11th we arrived at the church in liberty township Oho, (such a patriotic sounding name)  just north of Cincinnati Ohio. We originally were to have 2 busses that grew into 3 busses and at the last minute we ended up with 4 busses. Only 1 or 2 seats left available in each bus. We were packed in.

The best description of the crowd would be grandmothers, grandfathers, veterans and a sprinkling of people in their 30's. A very few were younger. Some of the older crowd were previously hippies in their younger days. Its amazing what a few years, ummm quite a few years, at the school of hard knocks can teach a person, including hippies.

We spent about 45 minutes loading suitcases, ice chests, back packs, chairs and most reverently our home made signs. Many people talked about the issues that seemed most pressing for them, compared signs and rushed about to find a seat on the bus and hoping that they could sit with family and friends. There were a lot of people that simply came by themselves. A hodge podge of people driven by their patriotism and concern for their country. We were a proud lot indeed.

Our trip started out around 08:15 and off down the highway we went for our 11 hour journey to a destination in our capitol, no one had a clue exactly what awaited us in Washington. Jokes about counter groups were usually met with the typical attitude of "yea just let them try" or "I'll show them" or "there will be more of us than them" but nervousness could be detected in some of the responses.

Not many of these patriots had ever protested anything in there lives until just a few months earlier at local and much small tea party protests. THIS was the big event, like going to the superbowl. This was a much bigger and more important event than anything we had ever stood for or attempted. We all knew we had to be there for this was the big event, THE DAY OF RECKONING. Come hell or high water we were going, our voice was going to be heard. As patriots our duty called.

Through 11 hours marked by numerous stops, burgers, sodas, pee breaks and fidgeting around in a bus seat we finally arrived in Falls Church VA and2 busses went directly to dinner while 2 checked in at the hotel. I was on the lead bus and we got dinner first, which meant I got beer first too. I can honestly say it was a very good beer. Samuel Adams and cold as ice. Of course after 11 hours on the bus I would have drank luke warm beer out of the ash tray. I was a bit of a grueling ride and I have never been one to take meds for such events when beer works just fine. 

After dinner (not real impressive) we headed to the hotel. It was a very nice Marriott and the price of just $99.00 per night had me thinking it would be some flea bag joint. I was impressed, very impressed. I paid $289.00 in Washington before and got half the room. After check in of course we all headed to the bar or a room near by and sign making ensued along with loud discussions and more drinks. It was inspiring to see, feel, hear and just bask in the excitement of the moment. You knew history was in the making and you were part of it.

Midnight and it was lights out for me. I had a wake up call for 06:00 and the plan was to meet down stairs for a departure at 07:30 for the half hour subway ride to Washington. I got down stairs at @ 7:00 and went for the morning coffee. I called my friends to see what they wanted and ordered for all. This joint must have been working on a skeleton crew because it took forever to get coffee and bagles. It was 07:30 by the time I got it. We promptly loaded on the bus to take us to the subway and we waited, and waited, waited some more, ran out of coffee, then finally left about 7:50.

Our plans were to meet at the Washington Monument for the state of Ohio meet up point, prior to the 08:30 departure to freedom plaza, at the corner of Pennsylvania and 14th street, I believe, but the 30 minute subway ride was complicated with buying tickets on machines we had never seen, finding the right train, orange line, and getting all of our gear dragged around. We were not the 30 year olds I referenced earlier.

Since we obviously did not make the 08:30 departure from the meet up point we had to find the Ohio state starting point for the march on our own. What seemed like a very daunting task turned out to be quite simple. Just follow the crowd. The great big, long, streaming line of people, toting ice chests, chairs, flags and signs, lots of signs. Did I mention flags, there were lots of them too and there was every kind. Standard US flags, original colony flags with 13 stars in a circle, don't tread on me flags, little flags, big flags, flags in hats, backpacks, strollers, back pockets, front pockets and suffice it to say one knew they were among Americas most ardent patriots simply by the sight. My flag was a 2nd revolution flag, an original 13 colony flag with the 13 stars in a circle but with a roman numeral II in the center. The second revolution has begun and damn if was not going to have the proper flag.

So from about 09:00 to about 10:45 we stood in a swarming mass of people listening so some muffled sound of a speaker somewhere in freedom plaza, about 200 feet away. We simply could not hear the speaker over the drone of the crowd. Once in a while the speaker would say something profound and the place would break out in a roar. Me too, even if I did not understand what was said. The energy was there, the excitement and the anticipation. At around 10:45 the crown suddenly surged forward about 40 feet down Pennsylvania avenue.

The march had began, no cannon shot, no idea what the start signal was, maybe the speakers stopped, I don't know but we were ready to roll. We marched from 14th to 3rd in about 30 minutes yelling and chanting all the way. It was a constant chatter among our selves of "see that sign" , "read that one", "look at that costume" and of course photo shots down the road with the capitol building in the background and a hoard of patriots, signs and flags heading straight at it. As if on a collision course we were heading straight at our final destination, the capitol. 

Along the way we were informed over a loud speaker that the park police just announced that the crowd estimate was 1.5 million. That got the crowd roaring. That made us proud. We had achieved the 1 million that we really wanted to reach, better yet we exceeded it... Spectacularly.

Once we got to 3rd street we made a hard right turn and went past the fox news truck. A lot of photos were being taken there and there was some type of scroll that people were signing, another great act of defiance I suppose. At least for this crowd. There was no rudeness that I observed any where until we got to the CNN bus and I heard someone yelling, CNN sucks, CNN sucks, I finally realized it was me. The crowd cheered me on but would not join in. Oh well, I finally had my say with them. It felt good too!!!

Just after passing the CNN sucks bus we turned onto the lawn and quickly found a piece of turf that would seat 5 tired patriots in our chairs. We were seated on the other side of the pool of water down from the Capital. As Ellie Mae would have said, "the cement pond."  We then began to take turns walking around reading all of the signs, taking pictures and mainly just being there and taking in this huge event. People were streaming in from everywhere. Not just the road we had marched down. We heard that the highway was nearly shut down that morning. Traffic was not moving because of all the cars stuck waiting to exit. Yea BO and congress, we did that!!!

The speakers began at 1:00 pm and after about 1 hour of listening to the blah, blah, blah covered by the shouts and drone of the crowd we moved up beside Ellie Mae's cement pond where we could actually make out what the speakers were saying. We had a great time, I spoke to so many people about GOOOH.com and was surprised to find out that a lot of people had never heard about it. So I worked hard at getting the word out. I felt good!!

We had an overcast day the entire day which was good since it kept the heat down. Temp was in the 70's and it was a very comfortable day that threatened to rain on a few occasions but never did. By 4:00 we were putting on our long sleeve shirts since the wind was blowing about 10-20 MPH. No sooner had we put them on and the rally ended. The last speaker finished at 4:00 and it was time to leave.

The crowd had thinned by 4:00 but not enough. We packed up all of our items and headed back for the subway and the confusion that we knew we would go through again. This time it was worse. Lets just say the subway was a wee bit crowded. OK, so I lied. BO does it too so it must be Washington rubbing off on me. "You Lie" happened to be a very popular sign at the rally. When we finalllllly made it on a subway we were packed in a$$hole to belly button, with signs, chairs and ice chests. It was a cluster f@ck needless to say. It took almost 1 hour to get back to the hotel, the beer, and a shower. It was midnight till I left the bar but it was well worth it.

The next day we began the road trip again, departure 08:00, coffee at 07:30 and 11 hours of the pee stops, burgers.........I was glad to get home to my own bed, but I would not have missed if I had to crawl there.