Homer II

Equity Markets Show Key Reversal

Well, a month has passed and we are up 330 points in DJIA, up 41 points in the SPX, and NASDAQ is up over 80 points.

I guess this market still has legs. Thank you!

True September Unemployment 14%: Our System Is Broken

Thanks Mark for your research.

We really are heading for a decade of depression. We could even see real (not BLS definition of "real") unemployment up over 30-35%. My best guess is somewhat near the SGS number of 22% at this time. Assuming a labor force of some 137 million with 22% out of full-time work, we have about 30 million displaced workers. That is going to take upwards of a decade to absorb back into the workforce. This country will be thoroughly tested as to whether the people continue to believe in the "American Way" of democracy, and capitalism where anyone can aspire to rise up and succeed. Or whether they begin to give up trying to reach the level of achievement that their parents had, and slump down into a sad life of government control over jobs, wages, medicine, education, and essential freedoms.

Jobless Claims Fall to the Lowest Level in 34 Weeks

Ohh YAY! We have falling unemployment claims. laaa-la-la laaa-la-la

When in reality, it just means about 11000 poor souls who have used up all their time on unemployment benefits must go away and stop getting assistance.

"They don't have jobs yet! Or do they? We dunno. They just go away so we don't get to track them anymore. And, so we don't care anymore, whether they have a job or not. The only thing that matters around here is what the numbers say."

( HEY OBAMA: Where are all those 5 Millions jobs you were gonna create? You know.. those you boasted about a year ago when you were campaigning?)

Equity Markets Show Key Reversal

My gut-feel is that fundamentals are currently trumping technicals. I don't have charts and numbers to support this observation, tho.

Mid-Cycle Meltdown: Jobless Claims September 03, 2009

I didn't say that Obama was at fault for all things going wrong. Presidents are mostly figureheads when it comes to economic policy anyhow. But, you can bet that Obama will suffer when things continue down this road to dispair. If things are bad enough, for long enough, he will be voted out (my fervent hope here)

That is a double-edged sword too. When the economy is robust, sitting presidents bask in glory, some pronouncing how "they were responsible" (Clinton).

Mid-Cycle Meltdown: Jobless Claims September 03, 2009

I think the congress and the administration are beginning to get scared of totally failing to put the nation on a path to recovery by the next 12-18 months. This means that the House of Representatives could be turned upside down by next years elections, and Democrats would lose their lock on the US Government. That sets the stage for the Obama administration to fall in 2012. They are not doing anything right.

why do I say that?

1. Unemployment continues rising, not falling.
2. Business failures continue rising, not falling.
3. Sales keep falling all across the board, not rising.
4. food and energy prices keep rising, not falling.
5. real estate forclosures continue to rise, not fall.

Tell me I'm wrong.

26 Bullish Breakout Stocks on Big Volume

This stock is going to pop up after earnings are announced on Wednesday. They are in a hot industry (Li-ion batteries), have had a big quarter, have low debt, insider buying. MHO, it is going over $6 by the end of the week.

The 'New Normal' for Unemployment

Hey Obama.. where are those 5 MILLION jobs you promised in your campaign speeches last year???

Instead of squandering money buying junker autos, how about focusing upon using that money towards getting REAL jobs for Americans???

Great Depression II? It's Not Even Close

According to seanlbrennan's unemployment numbers during the first few years of the Depression, they reached 16% in year 3 and 23% in the fourth year.

And, some of you mistakenly scoff at the comparisons between the GD numbers and todays by quoting the BLS unemployment numbers as not yet reaching 10%.

The fact is that BLS numbers have been tortured so many times between then and now that todays statistics are laughable!

Look here at the SGS numbers which are much closer to the measurement algorithms used back in the 1930s...
(3rd chart down)

www.shadowstats.com/al...

We are now over 20% and this isn't even year 4 of this "GD2"

good luck finding any job which remotely resembles what you used to do before last year.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Obama has a double standard.. it is not OK for people in the business world to be generously compensated for a job that they work hard at and contribute some value to. But is IS OK for his wife to make $317,000 a year for a 1/2 time job at some Chicago Hospital and provided NOTHING of value to!

The Real May Unemployment Rate Is 13.4%

Hmm.. it is already apparent (to me at least) that we are slowly sliding into a depression which could last as long as the first GD and possibly cause greater dislocation. The Fed wants desperately to keep/force lending rates to stay low as possible to provide somewhat of a safety net catching the tsunami of ARM resets coming. But, the upward pressures are too great for Bernanke and Geithner to hold back. Add the current unending malaise to what is approaching and you can see why. Very scary for those, trying to run and hide.

Obama (Should Say) to California: Drop Dead

There is Oil and Gas in the OCS off the coast of CA. But the citizens of that state said, "NO" to offshore drilling. Having that resource today would be a boon to the tax coffers had the O&G industry been allowed to develop these resources years ago. Just look at Texas: their citizens pay NO STATE INCOME TAX because the severance taxes from O&G production mitigate the need for income tax revenues. But the "intelligent" californians knew better.

Jobs Lost in April? Try Jobs Gained in April

More fiddling with the numbers by the BLS surrogates, I see. Well, it won't work.. the unemployment is moving inexorably upwards, in spite of all the manipulation, stripping, adding, whatever.

And, like others have said, many jobs will never come back.. thy've been destroyed or moved offshore.

My humble advice is to quit wasting time trying to fool the public, and get to work FIXING the problems.
That means YOU out there in the Government!

Want a Pension Over $100,000? Be a Government Worker in California

"..If we want to fix state government in California, we are going to have to take on the unions and fix our bloated pension system."

Everywhere one looks, the Unions are at the core of most PROBLEMS affecting this economy. That should send a strong message to businesses: if you can steer clear of union labor, do so. If not, time to drive your company straight into the ground, declare BK, scrape off union contracts, and re-emerge looking for a DIFFERENT workforce. I know, I know.. that just sounds insane! But what else can an INFECTED workplace do?! Just keep paying the freight and slide down to oblivion, as the parasites drain the blood of that workplace?

Economic Inconsistency: Continuing the Journey to the 'New Normal'

Steven, thanks for the thorough examination of where we appear to stand and seem to be (not) heading. Your candor is refreshing in the current atmosphere of myth, deception, acrimony.