Evan Grey Owl

GM Says It Straight and Simple: Shares Are Going to Zero

NO. The company, and all the brokerages, needed to have told clients and investors this fact a long time ago. Not a single person I asked would give me a straight answer as to what happens to shares if a company declares bankruptcy, until it was too late. As a beginning investor, one would not automatically know this. Some employees at brokerages even told me it depends on the case, and shareholders might retain value, and it was impossible to know. The banks that back the company, they seem to want to pretend that the bankruptcy may not happen until it is already a done deal, so they can make sure they have best positioned themselves at small shareholders expense, who are kept in the dark. GM and other companies going bankrupt; they do not get ANY points for honesty. It is not enough to tell the truth eventually. You have to tell the truth to your investors in the time frame that matters. There will be a price to be paid for our government and courts allowing the small shareholders to be wiped out, while the bankers pulling the strings give themselves salary increases.


On Jul 05 12:21 PM J. Crighton wrote:

> Look at it this way: At least there's one company you can count on
> to honestly tell what their stock is worth.

Apple's Credibility Problem

Matthew Ingram writes, ".....when the company said he wasn’t sick — and got CNBC to repeat this assertion — it was putting itself at risk of breaching SEC disclosure rules."

A violation of SEC rules would be using a blog to manipulate a stock price downward when the author has proxies shorting it, or has a conflict of interest in options contracts. Someone should initiate an investigation of this author, Matthew Ingram. Too bad the SEC is toothless.

Apple's Steve Jobs Isn't Sick - Argus

Correction:
Shenzies is what they are. And you don't want to know what that word means.

Apple's Steve Jobs Isn't Sick - Argus

If the incredibly RUDE, INVASIVE people that are OBSESSED with how many millimeters of fat is under Jobs' skin, compared to the last time their beady little vulture eyes were fixated on him, would just buzz-off, I am sure his health and morale would improve. No sane person would subject themselves to the crass and vulgar oogling of one's body that certain rude, big-mouthed "Jobs' watchers" think they have a right to engage in. Such people are no better than stalkers. Ditto the media that behave this way. Shenzi's is what they are. And you don't want to know what that world means.

Lehman, Forecasting, and the Vix

The VIX isn't set up to predict large scale sudden selling of stocks by big entities with inside information about what Congress is going to do vis-a-vis a "bailout" of those same big players. I'm sure the insiders could imagine the public reaction to learning suddenly about ugly internals they had kept from sight so successfully.... until they couldn't. They cashed out before the lines got too long. Basically, taking from all the small investors (The un-annointed) with one hand, while holding a tin cup to the Congress with the other. I believe all small investors should be re-imbursed by the SIPC up to $100K for losses from mid-September to the present, or whenever this precarious ship rights itself.

Pimco's El-Erian: "2008 was the year of the crisis of the financial system. 2009, unfortunately, will be the crisis of the economic system."

People who harp on this seem to be encouraging others to part with their stock at fire-sale prices so they can buy it.

Since when has screaming, "We're all gonna DIE !!!" been helpful?

Equity Market Declines Increase Risk to Insurers' Capital Reserves

"Equity Market Declines Increase Risk to Insurers' Capital Reserves"

Please. Share this with the federal government of your southern neighbor.
They seem to have missed what role the equities market plays in reducing systemic risk and maintaing personal wealth and therefore corporate profitability.

Former Wall St. Favorites Currently in Single Digit Territory

This market s clearly manipulated, and it started in earnest when the big investment banks met resistance from Congress in getting a blank check.

Some very deep pockets knew, before the rest of us, that the house wasn't going to pass to the bailout bill, an they were ready to dump huge amounts of stock. Then followed a lot of ugly fighting, very publicly, among the Congress members, leaving the masses to fear chaos among a dysfuctional Congress, during a gap in executive leadership. Big predators moved in to drive prices down in a backdrop of chaos, where they could use the media, who are so very easily manipulated, to create false associations as a cover for downward price manipulation. Who benefits from the sudden infliction of margin calls? Look there for the perpetrators of some or much of this market manipulation.

Can You See Apple Under $60?

Maybe you can manipulate it down to $60 if you keep writing articles like this.
Got a fat short position? Some puts?
Are you the one who manipulated trades for $21.70 and $31.00 in late September, early October? Maybe if you keep writing articles like this, it will brain-wash people to think Apple should go to 60, and they won't notice the criminal manipulation that some people are engaged in....

I hope the SEC is watching very carefully the illegal manipulations of this stock.

Treasury Continues to Harpoon the Real Economy

Mr. Hughes - Thank you for a well-written, thoughtful article.

The U.S. auto manufacturers need pressure on them to re-tool for electric cars and hybrid cars. Left to their own devices, pressure from oil companies would maintain the status quo forever - guaranteeing more war and expensive wars, more death, more waste, more environmental poisoning. Only a great force would lead them to change direction. Is that the silver lining in this horrible market crash. Why doesn't NASA put a hold on the next space adventure and devote itself to a suitable electric car battery. Don't tell me they can't do it. Other countries are ahead of us in this regard, and GE , an American company, is funding them. What are Americans going to get from that? We deserve to know. The employees of auto companies need to be helped during a major transition, but a major transition there must be. And oil companies will need to have a plan in place for their employees to retrain and retool in coming years as the electric car is adopted. Also, we need to ask for government support to small investors who were crushed by the market manipulations engineered by the big investment banks and the Treasury. Such as SIPC reimbursements for up to $100,000 of losses for each small investor who has recently fallen victim of what you call " the largest coalition of organized crime in human history."

Solar Stocks on Sale

One effect of this crisis, for the less mercenary among us, will be a certain resurgence of nationalism. That may be part of the reason FSLR has lost less than some of the Chinese solar stocks that were so highly touted before August 2008. Also, one factor I don't see much of in any articles, but that does weigh on purchasing decisions, is what risk model is applied to individual stocks. I believe that FSLR and POT, for example, are treated more leniently by some brokerages. However, this kills you if a margin call happens, as you have to sell much more than a stock that was treated as riskier in the first place by the brokerage's byzantine rules. Previously, the best solars' share prices seemed to travel in packs. Now, those with the best political connections and best financial relationships to U.S. banks, utilities, and government will do best in U.S. exchanges. Sadly, this may not include some of the best Chinese solars, despite their previous leadership and initiative. Also, Chinese policy reversal on allowing short selling in their markets co-incided with significant share value losses, as far as I can see. But I am no expert.

Solar Breaks Oil Price Dependence

Philman,
History has shown the wisdom of your view.

The only reason oil prices are so low now is because someone in the upper echelon's of power said, "Let them eat cake."

Emergent BioSolutions: Stellar Acting Stock

I would be very, very careful about this stock outside of the current administration.
Recommended reading:
David Wilman's articles in the LA Times (Fear Inc. series) on the Anthrax vaccine history and big checks written by HHS after lobbying
Best journalism on the Steve Hatfield, Bruce Ivin's investigations
Anything on the relationship between scientific adviser's to the head of HHUS, and "accidental" release of Anthrax in Australia in 1997.
And if you are in a literary mood, added insights might come from John LeCarre's "The Constant Gardener"

Apple Earnings: What to Expect (And Who Not to Believe)

Apple believes in the Old School idea: "Never promise more than you can deliver."

Brian in Montreal: I am a newer investor and got caught off guard by the drastic fall in the market -- made worse by the "Bailout" vote debacle, political infighting, and the major media effort to drive us all off a cliff edge. My hat is off to those who knew how to use options to advantage during this time. Have you any recommendations of books or courses to learn about options? [e-mail]

Apple Earnings: What to Expect (And Who Not to Believe)

I believe that as the economy retracts and people may not be rushing to buy houses yet, and as many have experienced big losses in assets, and increasingly, jobs, a mental transformation comes about. In-between jobs is a good time to invest in oneself. Online training and courses are a large and growing industry. Ease of use of Macs gives them an edge here, as they already have in many University communities. Also, those who have to postpone big dreams because of the economy are prone to console themselves with more affordable items that help them to feel contemporary and that have an anti-depressant effect. I would predict an increase in trendy mobile phone sales, furniture and inexpensive home decorating.

As to Apple earnings and guidance, the analysts need to recognize the market environment we are in now, and stop inflating their estimates before a report. They are the ones - not the companies - that keep setting investor shareholders up for a fall. If they believe the company is worthy of investor risk, the best thing they can do is let the company's own figures guide investors, and don't jack them up before earnings. It is a fraud that long-term investors pay for heavily.