MiddleOfRoader's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/270290/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/130721-why-shouldn-t-goldman-sachs-repay-their-tarp-money?source=feed#comment-462308 462308 Tue, 14 Apr 2009 00:15:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124994-astounding-volume-in-3x-financial-etf-fas-may-signal-turnaround?source=feed#comment-420111 420111 Tue, 10 Mar 2009 03:34:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124655-pension-underfunding-the-next-earnings-shock?source=feed#comment-418625 418625 Sun, 08 Mar 2009 22:30:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124632-ten-stocks-to-hold-long-term-barron-s?source=feed#comment-418596 418596 Sun, 08 Mar 2009 21:41:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124403-the-free-market-votes-still-no-change-we-can-believe-in?source=feed#comment-415209 415209 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 21:42:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115525-the-scariest-chart-ever?source=feed#comment-363687 363687
.... Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was told "deficits don't matter" when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.

O'Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush's economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from "the corporate crowd," a key constituency.

O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due." A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired....

If anyone says deficits matter, just fire them. Problem solved.

]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 23:51:36 -0500
.... Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was told "deficits don't matter" when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.

O'Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush's economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from "the corporate crowd," a key constituency.

O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due." A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired....

If anyone says deficits matter, just fire them. Problem solved.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114215-marc-faber-jim-rogers-and-boone-pickens-bullish-on-oil?source=feed#comment-352958 352958
At some point economic activity will start to pick up, and that might be the time to get in.

Does USL have a lesser contango problem than USO?]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 01:51:53 -0500
At some point economic activity will start to pick up, and that might be the time to get in.

Does USL have a lesser contango problem than USO?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112262-buying-uso-is-a-no-brainer?source=feed#comment-339113 339113
I think some of the posters holding USO might be better served holding USL. The charts look almost the same up until November, but USL has been falling somewhat less since then:

stockcharts.com/charts...

An article discussing the differences between USO and USL is located at:
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> Sat, 27 Dec 2008 02:06:41 -0500
I think some of the posters holding USO might be better served holding USL. The charts look almost the same up until November, but USL has been falling somewhat less since then:

stockcharts.com/charts...

An article discussing the differences between USO and USL is located at:
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112209-cramer-s-lightning-round-the-most-dangerous-stock-for-2009-12-23-08?source=feed#comment-339100 339100
I subscribed to two monthly investment newsletters, and the advice coupled with the timing of that advice was so bad I had to subscribe to Morningstar as a check on those letters. The Morningstar ratings provided a false sense of security. As the year wore on and time after time either earnings or future forecasts came in below previous guidance, Morningstar would suspend the cratered stock's ratings as "Under Review". A couple week's later the "fair value" would be slashed 20% - 50%.

Last year, almost no energy stocks were rated highly by Morningstar, as Morningstar said they do not earn the cost of capital over a full cycle. In the midst of the big run-up in oil prices, Morningstar changed their model, with the new model basically assuming something close to the current oil price would continue indefinitely. All of a sudden, most energy stocks seemed to be highly rated, a couple of months before they all fell off a cliff.

At least Cramer went bearish on almost everything around the end of September, and viewers who followed that call probably saved themselves 20% - 30% if they were still invested at that point. Most other sources of advice kept preaching the benefits of sticking to a long-term allocation.]]> Sat, 27 Dec 2008 01:26:09 -0500
I subscribed to two monthly investment newsletters, and the advice coupled with the timing of that advice was so bad I had to subscribe to Morningstar as a check on those letters. The Morningstar ratings provided a false sense of security. As the year wore on and time after time either earnings or future forecasts came in below previous guidance, Morningstar would suspend the cratered stock's ratings as "Under Review". A couple week's later the "fair value" would be slashed 20% - 50%.

Last year, almost no energy stocks were rated highly by Morningstar, as Morningstar said they do not earn the cost of capital over a full cycle. In the midst of the big run-up in oil prices, Morningstar changed their model, with the new model basically assuming something close to the current oil price would continue indefinitely. All of a sudden, most energy stocks seemed to be highly rated, a couple of months before they all fell off a cliff.

At least Cramer went bearish on almost everything around the end of September, and viewers who followed that call probably saved themselves 20% - 30% if they were still invested at that point. Most other sources of advice kept preaching the benefits of sticking to a long-term allocation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110772-detroit-bailout-no-news-is-bad-news?source=feed#comment-330618 330618 Housing - subsidized by deduction on mortgage interest.
Agriculture - subsidized by farm support payments.
Oil and gas - subsidized by depletion allowances and tax credits.
Private equity - subsidized by lower tax rate, capital gain rate versus ordinary income.

What's the big deal about one more subsidy?
]]> Tue, 16 Dec 2008 01:09:48 -0500 Housing - subsidized by deduction on mortgage interest.
Agriculture - subsidized by farm support payments.
Oil and gas - subsidized by depletion allowances and tax credits.
Private equity - subsidized by lower tax rate, capital gain rate versus ordinary income.

What's the big deal about one more subsidy?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110480-the-deflation-risk-keeps-rising?source=feed#comment-328101 328101
At some point energy prices will level out. If consumer prices are still in decline after that due to slack demand, that might be the time to start worrying.

Government transfer payments provide a certain base level of demand. Social Security benefits will be increasing 5.8% for January, a not too shabby increase for that segment of the population.

A trillion dollar stimulus package would also act to keep deflation at bay for awhile.]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 02:57:53 -0500
At some point energy prices will level out. If consumer prices are still in decline after that due to slack demand, that might be the time to start worrying.

Government transfer payments provide a certain base level of demand. Social Security benefits will be increasing 5.8% for January, a not too shabby increase for that segment of the population.

A trillion dollar stimulus package would also act to keep deflation at bay for awhile.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109059-who-might-benefit-from-detroit-s-failings?source=feed#comment-320444 320444
I'm guessing if there is a bankruptcy filing, the imports will start marking up their prices the next day. The public is going to pay one way or another.]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:27:18 -0500
I'm guessing if there is a bankruptcy filing, the imports will start marking up their prices the next day. The public is going to pay one way or another.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107785-the-government-s-pouring-money-into-a-bottomless-citi-pit?source=feed#comment-314369 314369 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 04:00:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107759-lucky-number-13-a-big-two-day-advance-in-the-dow?source=feed#comment-314333 314333 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 01:55:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107759-lucky-number-13-a-big-two-day-advance-in-the-dow?source=feed#comment-314327 314327
Any parallels with the current situation?]]> Tue, 25 Nov 2008 01:43:10 -0500
Any parallels with the current situation?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107175-preferred-dividend-etfs-shelter-from-the-storm?source=feed#comment-311399 311399
I complained then that JPM, BAC, USB and Citi issues were the top 4 holdings. Citigroup VIII has now slipped to the 5th largest holding, at 4.61%.

I suggest waiting until the Citigroup situation is resolved before diving into PFF. In the meantime, I suggest looking at non-financial preferreds.

I have a few shares of Comcast preferreds, CCT, which at $18 yield around 9%. I don't live in a Comcast service area, so I don't have a feel for how heated the battle is with Verizon and other competitors. However, Comcast was still reporting revenue and earnings gains as of the last quarterly report, unlike a lot of other businesses. ]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:59:12 -0500
I complained then that JPM, BAC, USB and Citi issues were the top 4 holdings. Citigroup VIII has now slipped to the 5th largest holding, at 4.61%.

I suggest waiting until the Citigroup situation is resolved before diving into PFF. In the meantime, I suggest looking at non-financial preferreds.

I have a few shares of Comcast preferreds, CCT, which at $18 yield around 9%. I don't live in a Comcast service area, so I don't have a feel for how heated the battle is with Verizon and other competitors. However, Comcast was still reporting revenue and earnings gains as of the last quarterly report, unlike a lot of other businesses. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106027-ge-s-dividend-assertion-is-dangerous?source=feed#comment-306571 306571
Buy if you are someone who can put it away and not look at the share price for the next two years and just be content with whatever dividends the company pays.]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 01:19:49 -0500
Buy if you are someone who can put it away and not look at the share price for the next two years and just be content with whatever dividends the company pays.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105001-highly-defensive-etfi-lower-volatility-higher-returns?source=feed#comment-306561 306561 Sat, 15 Nov 2008 00:35:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106029-ge-offers-dividend-opportunities-during-a-recession?source=feed#comment-306552 306552
I sold at $18.47.

I'll get interested in buying again when the dividend yield gets to 100% if at that point the Company is still saying the dividend is assured.


]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 00:05:42 -0500
I sold at $18.47.

I'll get interested in buying again when the dividend yield gets to 100% if at that point the Company is still saying the dividend is assured.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106028-stock-to-watch-pets?source=feed#comment-306543 306543
I saw a comment elsewhere that WMT might want a piece of the action, though.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 23:48:05 -0500
I saw a comment elsewhere that WMT might want a piece of the action, though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105517-a-radical-solution-for-u-s-automakers?source=feed#comment-303746 303746
Let's say the cost of 8 million new vehicles a year are subsidized by the public to the tune of $10,000 each to make them greener than the current models. If my math is right, that is $80 billion a year. An initial investment in refueling infrastructure might be needed as well.

I'm not sure how much of an increase in efficiency can be achieved for that cost.

If the Big 3 do not possess the technology ready to make a decent jump in efficiency right now (maybe they have it but there is no market at the current cost), perhaps it could be licensed from competitors. Otherwise, a bunch of money would be needed for life support until the technology is ready.

Gas prices are getting so low, such an investment might be difficult to justify using conventional cost/benefit analysis.]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 04:51:44 -0500
Let's say the cost of 8 million new vehicles a year are subsidized by the public to the tune of $10,000 each to make them greener than the current models. If my math is right, that is $80 billion a year. An initial investment in refueling infrastructure might be needed as well.

I'm not sure how much of an increase in efficiency can be achieved for that cost.

If the Big 3 do not possess the technology ready to make a decent jump in efficiency right now (maybe they have it but there is no market at the current cost), perhaps it could be licensed from competitors. Otherwise, a bunch of money would be needed for life support until the technology is ready.

Gas prices are getting so low, such an investment might be difficult to justify using conventional cost/benefit analysis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105109-why-the-detroit-bailout-should-include-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-302610 302610 Mon, 10 Nov 2008 22:52:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=feed#comment-302503 302503
Perhaps if the government takes a passive equity stake, there is a chance of recouping the investment when there is a recovery.

Regarding mortgage workouts, that is another tough situation.

The consequences of both situations go way beyond just those directly involved.


On Nov 10 08:31 PM fergus wrote:

> "Should we destroy the lives of as many people as possible because
> the government (aka the public) mismanaged housing, energy, credit
> and the economy generally? Or should we give as many people as possible
> a chance to get through this? "
>
> How? By printing money? There is no wealth being created to pay for
> the bailouts. It's simply a transfer from public to private hands.
> And it's those same private hands that have proven they are incapable
> of building a sustainable business.
>
> Do you also advocate the public paying the mortgages of people who
> signed up for the cheap ARMs or bought a house way beyond their means?
> When you make stupid decisions you should have to deal with the consequences,
> whether it involves your house or a multi-billion dollar industry.
>
>
> ]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 20:42:14 -0500
Perhaps if the government takes a passive equity stake, there is a chance of recouping the investment when there is a recovery.

Regarding mortgage workouts, that is another tough situation.

The consequences of both situations go way beyond just those directly involved.


On Nov 10 08:31 PM fergus wrote:

> "Should we destroy the lives of as many people as possible because
> the government (aka the public) mismanaged housing, energy, credit
> and the economy generally? Or should we give as many people as possible
> a chance to get through this? "
>
> How? By printing money? There is no wealth being created to pay for
> the bailouts. It's simply a transfer from public to private hands.
> And it's those same private hands that have proven they are incapable
> of building a sustainable business.
>
> Do you also advocate the public paying the mortgages of people who
> signed up for the cheap ARMs or bought a house way beyond their means?
> When you make stupid decisions you should have to deal with the consequences,
> whether it involves your house or a multi-billion dollar industry.
>
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=feed#comment-302463 302463 GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler) that compensate their workers more?

The answer is yes. Why?

The foreign makers have the benefit of green-field plants sited in low-cost areas, probably with long-term tax breaks from state and local governments, and an initial workforce likely cherry-picked to be younger rather than older.

Now that the earliest foreign plants are getting close to 30 years old, the true legacy costs for the foreign makers is just starting to emerge. I'm guessing wages and pensions are not that different between domestic and foreign US plants after adjusting for location cost-of-living. Perhaps the retiree medical for domestics is more generous, I'm not sure.

Given a level playing field, the difference is probably not much.

The Big 3 were prepared for a garden variety recession, but unfortunately we're looking at a near-depression, especially if the Big 3 goes under (if one goes, the others will likely have to quickly follow to maintain parity -- however, nobody wants to buy a car if they think the manufacturer is not going to be around to back a warranty -- so sales may drop to near zero while companies are in Chapter 11.)

Should we destroy the lives of as many people as possible because the government (aka the public) mismanaged housing, energy, credit and the economy generally? Or should we give as many people as possible a chance to get through this?

The writing has been on the the wall for twenty years now that employment-based health-care is a big handicap for US industries versus foreign competitors. Basically, nothing was done about the health care system.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 19:45:59 -0500 GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler) that compensate their workers more?

The answer is yes. Why?

The foreign makers have the benefit of green-field plants sited in low-cost areas, probably with long-term tax breaks from state and local governments, and an initial workforce likely cherry-picked to be younger rather than older.

Now that the earliest foreign plants are getting close to 30 years old, the true legacy costs for the foreign makers is just starting to emerge. I'm guessing wages and pensions are not that different between domestic and foreign US plants after adjusting for location cost-of-living. Perhaps the retiree medical for domestics is more generous, I'm not sure.

Given a level playing field, the difference is probably not much.

The Big 3 were prepared for a garden variety recession, but unfortunately we're looking at a near-depression, especially if the Big 3 goes under (if one goes, the others will likely have to quickly follow to maintain parity -- however, nobody wants to buy a car if they think the manufacturer is not going to be around to back a warranty -- so sales may drop to near zero while companies are in Chapter 11.)

Should we destroy the lives of as many people as possible because the government (aka the public) mismanaged housing, energy, credit and the economy generally? Or should we give as many people as possible a chance to get through this?

The writing has been on the the wall for twenty years now that employment-based health-care is a big handicap for US industries versus foreign competitors. Basically, nothing was done about the health care system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101975-an-opportunity-for-patient-investors-barron-s?source=feed#comment-292169 292169 Tue, 28 Oct 2008 02:21:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102176-s-p-returns-since-1927-are-important?source=feed#comment-291900 291900
The turnaround will come when the government gives out a credit towards a subsequent purchase each time something is charged on a credit card.]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:00:55 -0400
The turnaround will come when the government gives out a credit towards a subsequent purchase each time something is charged on a credit card.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100774-shot-on-goal-an-etf-warren-buffett-and-wayne-gretzky-might-like?source=feed#comment-286767 286767
Also, PFF is heavily weighted towards financials (88%) with the top 4 positions (22%) in Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JP Morgan and BAC trusts. The article doesn't mention under what conditions, if any, the dividend rate on these could be cut, and what impact the government's preferreds would have on these, if any.

]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:47:08 -0400
Also, PFF is heavily weighted towards financials (88%) with the top 4 positions (22%) in Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JP Morgan and BAC trusts. The article doesn't mention under what conditions, if any, the dividend rate on these could be cut, and what impact the government's preferreds would have on these, if any.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97882-bond-expert-monday-wrap?source=feed#comment-269254 269254
Perhaps micro-lending can be fostered here like in the Third World and if we're lucky and it takes we can maintain a subsistence economy.]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 00:06:29 -0400
Perhaps micro-lending can be fostered here like in the Third World and if we're lucky and it takes we can maintain a subsistence economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97389-why-it-s-time-for-muni-bonds?source=feed#comment-268614 268614
Muni money markets are sporting 5%+ SEC 7 day yields, which is enough for me in this environment.]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:13:42 -0400
Muni money markets are sporting 5%+ SEC 7 day yields, which is enough for me in this environment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97389-why-it-s-time-for-muni-bonds?source=feed#comment-265570 265570
Thinly traded closed-ends of the thinly traded muni market are probably sporting some huge yields and discounts now, but I haven't checked that out yet since I'm not buying until there is some stability. That is a good place to look if you have money you can afford to lose.



]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 03:10:35 -0400
Thinly traded closed-ends of the thinly traded muni market are probably sporting some huge yields and discounts now, but I haven't checked that out yet since I'm not buying until there is some stability. That is a good place to look if you have money you can afford to lose.



]]>