The AntiCramer

Why This Is Just Another Bear Market Rally

False. Where did all this "cash" come from?

There appears to be more cash because as a percentage of portfolios cash has increased. This isn't necessarily because investors are hoarding cash waiting for the opportune moment. Their other assets have PLUMMETED in value therefore increasing the percentage of cash held.

Further, how many investors do you really believe are dying to put all their precious cash back into the market? These are the very same people who just lost 50% or more of their net worth via housing and asset losses. Many of these same people are worried about their jobs, are scalp deep in debt, and face further losses in net worth due to the asset deflation the Fed and Treasury are desperately trying to combat.

Just because you read something in Barron's doesn't make it the an incontrovertible truth. Those saps are permabulls who only benefit professionally when you are fully invested. Listening to their (or CNBC's advice) thusfar sets you back to the early 90's.

Talk about a weak bullish argument.


On Mar 31 04:17 PM dharmabob wrote:

> stock prices aren't based on today's situation, but on expectations,
> so an analysis of the current economic status isn't necessarily a
> good indicator of which way stock prices are going. There's a lot
> of cash out there waiting to come back in.

Why the Fed Is Right to Be Worried

So you're arguing that blindly spending money without pausing to consider possible ramifications is not only a necessity but also a good idea? Try running your business like that and see how long you last. Or your personal finances, for that matter.


On Mar 22 01:34 PM Sunnsea wrote:

> During WWII no one thought "how will we pay off this debt?" They
> did what they had to do to obtain victory and huge spending was part
> of it....and the results were extraodinary. We are in the midst
> of the destruction of the American crony capitalism system but it
> is not over yet and we are going to have to do what it will take
> to get ourselves out of this. Government spending and printing money
> is really the least of it.

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

The problems you list are all very real. Further many of the positives touted by pundits are either fictitious (actual unemployment), misleading (housing number last week), or terrifying (QE leading to inflation).

I'd like your opinion on the almost immediate reversal of opinion by nearly all pundits and market participants. We went from hearing doom and gloom from everyone and then over the course of a weekend everything changed.

With shorts being squeezed and people jumping back into the market what will happen when Q1 earnings and GDP disappoint?

Bear Market Rally or Did We Hit Bottom?

Not this time.


On Mar 15 10:11 PM William Cowie wrote:

> Rally, for a few reasons:
>
> 1. Too much of the impetus from short covering, as already pointed
> out
> 2. Insufficient volume
> 3. No "double bottom" yet
> 4. No locomotive to pull the train, i.e. stock or sector to draw
> in the cash from the sidelines.
>
> Of course, as the wife has pointed out a time or two, I have been
> wrong before :)

Not a Day to Dive Back In

They were oversold. We've yet to see a 6% rally in a bull market. Good luck my friend.


On Mar 13 02:31 PM Nuh-huh wrote:

> You're missing it. The market, particularly the banks and insurers,
> are oversold. If you think the banks are going to all blow up, take
> you cash and buy torches, pitchforks, guns and a tanker-truck full
> of gasoline. Otherwise, put your money back to work.

Not Out of the Bear Market Yet

Generally a 6% rally would have a bear like me licking my chops looking for my next chance to get back in on the short side.

From what I've noticed over the past few weeks there has been three camps on SA. The first group is the bears who have been bearish the whole way down and trying not to gloat. The second are the bulls who have finally "seen the light" and turned bearish. The third are the permabulls.

Between the rapid increase and bearishness and the bulls constant braying that a "correction is due" one could easily see this rally coming.

That's why I find it so odd. It was SO contrived. Unfortunately hope doesn't add value to the bottom line.

Is Dow 5,000 Possible?

I remember Jimmy Cayne telling me Bear was in good shape.


On Mar 10 01:15 PM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> As it based on Vikram Pandit's view that everyone has a misconception
> about Citibank, then I would think it is the most unsustainable rally
> in history. Can this guy even count? And why is he still in charge?
>

How Much Downside Could Still Exist?

"From the prism of facts pertaining to previous recessions, the risks, including systemic risks, within the broad American financial framework are now fully priced."

Please justify that statement.

The 12-Year-Low Yardstick

The comments on this post outshine the article.

Difference between today and the seventies is a global credit meltdown. If I had the means I would gladly hit each CNBC shills bids.

Is the Market Going Lower? Silly Question!

Most financial advisors haven't seen a market like this in their lives. To make matters worst most people are simply too lazy to think critically about a situation.

My advice is to find out where anyone giving you advice gets their information and learn how they weigh all available information into their decision making process.

Most people seem to ignore the fact that the financial media will only flourish during bull markets (think "summertime and the livin' is easy") so they'll do everything they can to calm the masses and hurry in the next bull run. Meanwhile their clients have bought all the way down and are left with their pants around their ankles.

Bottom line is that if you have a few hours a week to spend researching the market you are capable of managing your own money.


On Mar 03 07:47 PM Lars39 wrote:

> Someone told me over a year ago to get out of the market completely,
> and do it NOW. My advisors(?) said no. Major regrets now for not
> selling then, but almost all "experts" were saying it was ok, and
> markets go through cycles, it will come back. I just hope there
> is something left when it comes back. Big difference between being
> 30 and waiting vs being 65 plus and waiting for a recovery.

U.S. Markets: Indicator Update for March 1

Are you arguing for or against the uptick rule? Recall that they flat out banned short selling in late 2007. Didn't slow the avalanche much. Longs still outnumber shorts by a wide margin.

Do you really believe this is just another recession like any other? Or for that matter, a bear market like any other? The problems wrecking markets today haven't been seen before.

From an investment side I would suggest trying to avoid picking spots for a bear market rally. I'd rather set myself up to profit from the downward action and be generally right than try to pick tops and bottoms and be precisely wrong.

On Mar 01 09:18 PM User 367426 wrote:

> There is no reason to buy this market. Any attempts over the past
> year to step up and buy has been met with disasterous results. This
> trend will continue until the uptick rule is restored. The retail
> guys can and do get killed in these kinds of markets. The pension
> funds, on the other hand, cannot allow their funds to be invested
> in a casino environment.
>
> Look at the point swings over the past year. Our markets are trading
> like a third world country. Just this past week saw a loss of 250
> points followed by a gain of 250 points and then losses of 80, 89
> and 120 points to finish the week. Is that an investment environment?
> No, of course not, and that is why the smart money will remain in
> T-bills until the very foundation of our markets is restored.
>
> The collapse of our markets in 2008-2009 is feeding the deflationary
> spiral that has impacted our individual lives. For example, if a
> company like XYZ can trade at 3 times earnings then what multiple
> would you provide the local dry cleaner business? If company ABC
> trades for less than their cash balance what value would you give
> the corner diner? If General Electric can drop from 42 to 8 and
> maintain a AAA rating then what value would be assigned to our houses?
> Wake up people, the banks via mark to market accounting nonsense
> are writing down good loans which in turn devalue the assets secured
> against the loans.
>
> Finally, historical trends have been quoted over and over as this
> recession has unfolded. The recession should end soon because history
> has shown this to be the case. The market is due for a rally because
> the historical pattern shows rallies occur often in bear markets.
> Well note to historians, every recession since 1938 has occurred
> WITH the uptick rule in place. The only recessions in our history
> that occurred WITHOUT the uptick rule took place prior to 1938 and
> after July 6, 2007.
>
> Now, final thought. What decade has this recession been compared
> to most? I watched the closing bell on New Years Eve only to confirm
> that 2008 proved to be the worst year on record since 1937. Everything
> about this recession screams the 1930's. Doesn't take a rocket scientist
> to figure out the pattern.
>

Roubini: Government-Backed Bank May Crack

Don't forget their enablers in Congress.


On Feb 20 09:13 AM monday1929 wrote:

> The systemic wrecking crew was led by the Terroristic Banks and paid
> off regulators whose leaders need to be tried for treason. Those
> pointing out the facts are not the enemy, especially since we tried
> in vain to warn you.

Barron's Plan to Save the Economy - For Just $200B?

What good will restoring the uptick rule do? They banned short selling a few months ago. What did that accomplish? Shorts aren't the problem. People realizing their investments are worth far less than they think and selling is a much bigger issue. Quit blaming shorts.


On Feb 16 10:21 PM meritman wrote:

> You are so right. Why can't the powers that be see this and do it....soon.
>
> ?

History Indicates a Bottom

No bottom until analysts finally get their estimates in line with reality. I don't care how similar the charts are. Last I checked most corporations don't generate profits based on the S&P 500 index. I'll switch sides when P/E ratios hit single digits.

The Ultimate Game Changer: Why 2009 Will Be Worse Than 2008 (Part 1)

Financial media commentators have a vested interest in a market recovery. Without it they are dust in the wind.