reluctantQuant

Fed Won't Disclose Who Got the $2 Trillion; Bloomberg Sues

Since when is the FRB subject to Freedom of Information Act?

4 Ways to Tell if This Bear Market Has Really Bottomed

plenty of lagging indicators to look at, no doubt about that.

only question I really want to know is - when does retail stop selling? that's what's preventing good hunters from starting to buy. experienced hands are callling this a buying opportunity, but managers can't execute when redemptions control the game.

good names (yes, be picky) are massively "on sale - flashing blue light special" -- maybe not the last sale or the lowest sale, but smart shoppers should be legging in. next portion should be around late Jan, early Feb earnings season (insert Monty Pyton "Bring out yer dead" quote here). Companies are going to pull junk out of their basement that no one ever imagined and drag it out to the sidewalk on these announcements, and earning surprises stats are going to be fabulous.

bonds? they called it, if you'd been watching your yield curve and your OIS spread. now spreads are wacked because you JUST CAN'T FIND A BID. sure 1-mo bills are negative. Many will pay par-plus just to avoid the vol and the horrible conversation with their overseers. and of course a treasury trader can't short the things to ya, (carry & bal sheet both wrong) so the last true long gets the trade. when the low investment grade spreads start moving in consistently, you'd better already be on the train.

is it the bottom?
moot question.
jack be nimble and start making it back.

Making Sense of Bond Yields

missing some pretty important considerations here...
1. if you hold to maturity, fine. (critical "if")
2. the muni market is about a very large number of very small issuers
3. those issuers will face extrordinary stresses on revenues in next 3 years
4. muni's are subject to systemic sell-offs on idiosyncratic events
5. retail is still selling more than they're buying, and will be for some time to come
6. Auction-rate sting is still being felt and monolines are bust.
7. Study up on Jefferson County, Alabama. More behind them.
8. Yes, some great deals out there, but solid research mandatory like never before.

Quantitative Finance: Adult Supervision Needed

quant modeling is just a modern example of the second oldest human problem - that true risk may transfer much faster than true comprehension, and the first must be limited by the second.