Al-USA

Trade Desk Thoughts: Hedge the Drop

Well, I was short expecting a drop, not in particular one related to the resumption, if such is occurring, of the financial crisis, but via my own market model. Nothing works all the time, but it looks like I will be enjoying this drop and will probably get a HUGE % return with my options spread.

As i write futures are 1074.7 1:31 EST, but I'm in CA so it's still early here.

The New Normal Could Be That Way for a While

Excellent article, Mr. Corson. You are the only author which I have come across in SA which touches on some of the fundamental issues behind the economic crisis. I believe there is yet more story to be told, related to the fundamental nature of capital, but I have decided to address that later.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

bob adamson wrote:
"
As a foreign observer of the US scene, however, I find it regrettable that I appear to have more faith than some US citizens in the capacity of the US and its people to work together to find a way forward through the current difficulties. This was done during the Depression and WW II and other past crises and there is no reason to think it can’t be done now.
"

One can not place faith upon the elites running the USA, Mr. Adamson, simply because it is the elites themselves that caused the "financial crisis" which has now precipitated into an economic crisis for the masses of the American working/middle class.

You see, the American working/middle class has been gutted and will continue to be gutted, as per the design of the capitalist elites way back in the passage of GATT in 1994, and perhaps earlier. As is apparent now, the process of capitalist globalization was the beginning of the end for the relatively high living standards of the American masses.

Of course, the absence of increasing wages, relative to inflation, was substituted for a time by the introduction of massive credit, or debt. But the limit of credit or debt, to substitute for the lack of rising wages during the boom period of capital from roughly 1982 to 2000 has now been reached; with the inevitable crisis of capitalism, or crisis of over-production.

But don't take my word for it, get it from one disgruntled billionaire elite, privy to the plans of this elite class, years ago, when, in 1994, he said publicly that globalization would result in reduction of wages, benefits, mass unemployment and soon, increased taxes on the masses of the working/middle class.

This elite, billionaire Sir James Goldsmith laid it all out to Charlie Rose in a 1994 video, titled,

"1994 Globalization Warning"
solari.com/blog/?p=3309

This is the establishment, aka Financial Oligarchy, corrupt capitalist elites, and their political cronies, against everybody else, but principally against the American masses.

Now, a conscious policy decision was set in motion, at least as far back as 1994, to increase the profits of the capitalist elites with the purposeful end game result of persistent mass unemployment, after the massive debt/credit (which substituted for the absence of wages to increase, after inflation) was maxed out.

If you care to see how this parasitic elite class thinks of the rest of us, take a few minutes to see the 1994 video below. I could summarize in text, but getting it from the elite himself is most informative.

"1994 Globalization Warning"
solari.com/blog/?p=3309

Unemployment Claims: Best Data We've Seen in a Long Time

James Carlini said:
"
The middleclass has been gutted and I don't see the other sectors - government, teachers, unions being able to take up the slack.
"

Yes, the working/middle class has been and will continue to be gutted, as per the design of the capitalist elites, way back in the passage of GATT in 1994, and perhaps earlier. But, as is apparent now, certainly the process of capitalist globalization was the beginning of the end for the relatively high living standards of the American masses. Of course, the absence of increasing wages, relative to inflation, was substituted for a time by the introduction of massive credit, or debt. But the limit to credit or debt, to substitute for the lack of rising wages during the boom period of capital from roughly 1982 to 2000 has now been reached; with the inevitable crisis of capitalism, or crisis of over-production.

But don't take my word for it, get it from one disgruntled billionaire elite, privy to the plans of this elite class, years ago, when, in 1994, he said publicly that globalization would result in reduction in wages, benefits, mass unemployment and soon, increased taxes on the masses of the working/middle class.

This elite, billionaire Sir James Goldsmith laid it all out to Charlie Rose in a 1994 video, titled,

"1994 Globalization Warning"
solari.com/blog/?p=3309

This is the establishment, aka Financial Oligarchy, corrupt capitalist elites, and their political cronies, against everybody else, but principally against the American masses.

Now, a conscious policy decision was set in motion, at least as far back as 1994, to increase the profits of the capitalist elites with the purposeful end game result of persistent mass unemployment, after the massive debt/credit (which substituted for the absence of wages to increase, after inflation) was maxed out.

If you care to see how this parasitic elite class thinks of the rest of us, take a few minutes to see the 1994 video below. I could summarize in text, but getting it from the elite himself is most informative.

"1994 Globalization Warning"
solari.com/blog/?p=3309

Structural Unemployment: The Only Cure

Part of the problem is that people like john s. gordon have bought the propaganda spin "hook line and sinker"...

Mr. Gordon, this was planned by the elites years ago, in fact, a disgruntled billionaire elite, said it publicly that globalization would result in reduction in wages, benefits, mass unemployment and soon, increased taxes on the masses of the working/middle class.

This elite, billionaire Sir James Goldsmith laid it all out to Charlie Rose in a 1994 video, titled,

"1994 Globalization Warning"
solari.com/blog/?p=3309

This is the establishment, aka Financial Oligarchy, corrupt capitalist elites, and their political cronies, against everybody else, but principally against the American masses.

Now, a conscious policy decision was set in motion, at least as far back as 1994, to increase the profits of the capitalist elites with the purposeful end game result of persistent mass unemployment, after the massive debt/credit used to substitute for the absence of wages to increase, after inflation, was maxed out, And you think that education is the problem? Mr. Gordon, you have a fundamental failure to see the "big" picture but, if you care to remedy your deficit, take a few minutes to see the 1994 video below. I could summarize in text, but getting it from the elite himself is most informative.

"1994 Globalization Warning"
solari.com/blog/?p=3309

After one watches the video, a few conclusions can be made, principally among them is, of what use is this economic model of capitalism, where the profits flow, per design, to the capitalist elites, while at the same time causing massive structural unemployment for the American masses. Of what use is economic growth that merely enriches the few rich and politically connected while bringing destitution to an increasing number of Americans?

How Will the Recession Affect Long-Term Consumer Behavior?

We need to have the American masses partake of the increases in productivity during the last few decades, starting from the 1980's. Census data indicates that the median wage of American workers saw no increase, relative to inflation, during the boom period of capital, 1980's to 2000.

In an environment where massive credit, or debt was used to substitute for missing increases in median wages, it's no surprise the savings rate went down.

Now, having seen the "real" face of capital, the masses are running scared from the reduction in wages, reduced benefits and soon, increased taxes. The attack on the living standards of the remaining workers no doubt "sharpen" them up some, survival is at stake... Anyways, those suffering from decreasing living standards are the lucky ones, the rest, which according to U6 figures is around 18% unemployed, well, being destitute does somewhat crimped your ability to "save".

Other than that, "party" on Wall Street!

BLS: Mass Layoffs Continue to Reign

Of course mass layoffs continue to "reign".

High unemployment is in fact a deliberate policy of the Obama administration, which is seeking to drive down the conditions of the working/middle class in order to restore profitability of American companies. I mean, the Man has rejected any serious jobs program or further stimulus measures so it is, in my opinion, an obvious administration policy goal.

Roubini on Unemployment: 'The Worst Is Yet to Come'

Teutonic Knight wrote:
"
For now, tighten up our belts, lower wages and salaries, then we could become once again competitive.
"

You mean for the overpaid CEO's right?

Thought so...

Food Insecurity: Another Measure of Economic Distress Skyrockets

Daniel, you are incorrect. I also come from an immigrant family who managed to raise me and 3 siblings on one income more than 25 years ago...

However during the last 25 years (can go as far back as 30) median wages have not kept up with inflation. Needless to say, food, a commodity, has gone up much more than inflation. Also during the last 25 years more of the cost of health care has been shifted onto the "back" of the working/middle class. So, for the last 25 years, reduced wages, reduced benefits, and now, with the still developing Greater Depression, in my opinion, millions have been sacked, millions more remained with reduced hours, and further reductions in benefits, if they exist at all.

Barack Obama is qutoed as saying this report is "unsettling". Actually, I find it embarrassing. I am embarrassed that this is international news in the supposed most advanced and civilized nation in the history of the world... right, one by one the contradictions of capitalism, as it is practiced in the USA, are becoming glaringly difficult to ignore.

For the record, I am a capitalist and benefit from it but I'm not blind nor do I ignore its contradictions.

Chance of a Depression Now 5 Percent

Actually, I think it was a good and honest article by Mr. DeLong. When and if it hits, I belive it is mostly here already, in California, don't forget to be charitable to those in need, since those still able to invest would probably make out the best.

Good luck to all.

All Bubbles Are Equal, But Some Are More Equal than Others

Excellent article by Mr. Harrison and comments, such as Mr. Nielson's. I will forward this article to all my contacts, keep up the good work.

The Unemployment Rate Illusion

This situation of mass unemployment is no good. Nothing good can come of it. I mean, capitalism is being discredited by its own actions.

To make matters worse, in the Obama administration the question of how to eliminate mass unemployment has become a non-issue. This portends great political shocks and upheavals in the near future to the detriment of both failed political parties: Democrats and Republicans.

Work Projects Administration: Is It Too Late?

"
It was all a slogan, "build bridges instead of bombs". We are still dropping bombs in Afganistan, and we still aren't building bridges at home.
"

Exactly, Obama has been all talk and no "show" for the working class/middle class. His actions show that the primary concern of policy makers, Democrats and Republicans, are to safeguard the wealth and interests of the Financial Oligarchy, or banskers, the very same group responsible for the financial crisis which has precipitated the economic crisis for the American masses.

In short, the masses can expect no relief from the attacks on their livelihoods, increased taxes, decreased benefits, etc., until a third poitical party is formed, independent of the Democrats and Republicans, which does more than "spew" popular slogans while behind close doors writing legislation for the benefit of its oligarchic masters. What is needed is a third party for the masses of the American working/middle class.

What if U.S. Social Fabric Tears?

The USA reminds me of the history of the Roman Republic and its transition to Empire. If you will recall, or care to reference, the Republic was born of revolution against a tyrannical king. Ok, basically all kings are tyrants but the point is that they got rid of the tyrant and established a Senate etc. the structures for a Republic. But the foundation of this Republic was its army.

The early Roman Republic army was composed of the lower class citizens who were given a pension, or sizable plot of land after serving 20 years. Unprecedented in ancient times and led to the development of a strong working/middle class which also powered the early Roman Republican army to greatness and eventual domination of most of Europe. I guess you could say the pension was a strong motivator of the citizenry.

However, it was also the practice of ancient times to take slaves, especially to make slaves of the conquered peoples. So, with each new territory/province conquered more and more slaves were brought into the Republic while at the same time, the ruling class corrupted the Senate to allow the confiscation of lands belonging to Roman soldiers who usually were in the field for years, at a time.

The end result was the increasingly large supply of slave labor was used to work the confiscated lands of the lower classes and thus began the decline of the Republic and its transition into Empire; because only through absolute rule could the ruling class continue to have its way.

Needless to say, a long process of deteriorating battle readiness of the Roman army also ensued and as time progressed more and more barbarian mercenaries were brought into the army to deal with this matter. By this time, the mercenaries had better morale than Roman citizen soldiers. I guess having the ruling class take your pension make dampen morale, somewhat...

To make the story short, yes, the ruling class got everything it wanted, it accumulated massive unprecedented wealth, and a few crazy emperors along the way.

But by the beginning of the end, when the barbarian Germanic hordes crossed the frozen rivers beginning in the third century AD, the rich, or ruling class, did not have the numbers in the army to hold back the massive numbers pouring across the border. In fact, most of the Roman Empire army by that time was barbarian mercenaries so we all know the end of that story.

By the end of the beginning of the end, the ruling class had lost it all and had been replaced by a barbarian ruling class. The masses? Well, to them life continue pretty much as it had before, with only a change of overlords.

Morale of the story is this: the middle class is the only thing separating the "barbarians" from the ruling class. The American ruling class destroys it at its peril.

How Warren Buffett Is Smarter than the G20

"
I think unemployment is overrrated if 70% of our GDP is consumer driven and 25% of the peopel have over 90% of the assets then the stock market should fine with all this excess liquidity and spending should resume.
"

That's the problem, if your figures that 25% have 90%+ of the assets. That is what brought about the crisis of capitalism, a crisis of overproduction. Quite simply, wealth became, once again, too concentrated, as it did in the 1920's, and the velocity of money collapsed... Which directly lead to the still unfolding, in my opinion, Greater Depression.

But, since the USA mainstream media is controlled by seven men (oligarchs) all you hear is Greater Recession.... If you believe that than you will also believe the unemployment rate is really 10.2% nationally, that recent GDP of 3.5% means "recession over", and that we have two political parties with FUNDAMENTAL differences acting completely on behalf of the American masses.

Ok, I think I made the point although much more can be written about the contradictions of American Capitalism and its "democracy", the best that money can buy. Which is to say, those with the most money get the most democracy.

By the way, another very interesting article by the author.
"
We hollow out the middle of the global economy – with a few people doing ever better and most people struggling to raise their living standards. Increasing commodity prices hit hard at poorer people everywhere (recall the effects of the relatively mild run-up in food and energy prices in the first half of 2008). Global volatility of this nature helps big business but at the cost of undermining the middle class.
"

From the quote it looks like the propaganda machine of the financial oligarchy will have a hard time selling capitalism as the best economic system for the masses. I mean, when the masses come to accept that they are out of a job, out of the means to feed/clothe their families simply because there is no profit in it for the capitalist elites, well, I'm sure readers can put 2+2 together on that one.