M-P's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/270843/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175278-salesforce-com-the-double-edged-sword-of-iterative-marketing?source=feed#comment-783061 783061 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:36:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175631-thinking-about-the-cloud-oracle-and-salesforce-com?source=feed#comment-783046 783046 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:24:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174816-trying-to-understand-airline-executive-compensation?source=feed#comment-776053 776053 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:29:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149562-ritholtz-ratigan-take-on-the-giant-vampire-squid?source=feed#comment-594095 594095
The real shame would be if no one speaks up ... I have written my senators and congressman - I may be delusional, but if enough people speak up, it could become politically unfavorable for GS to pay out what they are looking to ... think John Thain and his 10m payout ... ]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 15:42:48 -0400
The real shame would be if no one speaks up ... I have written my senators and congressman - I may be delusional, but if enough people speak up, it could become politically unfavorable for GS to pay out what they are looking to ... think John Thain and his 10m payout ... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146959-serious-problems-with-the-bls-unemployment-numbers?source=feed#comment-574396 574396 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 10:05:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145928-why-the-dow-is-headed-to-6000?source=feed#comment-571943 571943 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:32:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143136-restaurant-profits-eaten-up-by-recession?source=feed#comment-548534 548534 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:30:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124569-cramer-s-mad-money-obama-s-revenge-3-5-09?source=feed#comment-417210 417210 Sat, 07 Mar 2009 11:46:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121108-with-a-king-s-ransom-in-cash-why-still-no-buying-spree-in-the-tech-space?source=feed#comment-393664 393664 Wed, 18 Feb 2009 12:35:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120716-will-lack-of-accord-on-stimulus-obscure-economic-lessons?source=feed#comment-390902 390902
The bottom line on POTUS is that 4.6 out of 10 did not vote for Obama. If we round up, well ... and if disaggregate by race, SES, location, etc. we get even more profound differences. To say that the majority of the american public believe X or Y is somewhat misleading ... I don't consider 5.1 (or similar range) out of 10 people to be a tsunami of support.

As I've written elsewhere, we all know this will happen again. The moral hazard castle that has been erected with surely create the next crisis. There is too much $ to be made in problem deferral and in literally and figuratively mortgaging one's future. We are all paying for malfeasance and vegas-style bets. The partisan glasses on both sides will only strengthen their respective positions ... I don't have a lot of hope that a political/economic epiphany will happen. It is often the brightest that have a strong hardening of the attitudes.]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:24:30 -0500
The bottom line on POTUS is that 4.6 out of 10 did not vote for Obama. If we round up, well ... and if disaggregate by race, SES, location, etc. we get even more profound differences. To say that the majority of the american public believe X or Y is somewhat misleading ... I don't consider 5.1 (or similar range) out of 10 people to be a tsunami of support.

As I've written elsewhere, we all know this will happen again. The moral hazard castle that has been erected with surely create the next crisis. There is too much $ to be made in problem deferral and in literally and figuratively mortgaging one's future. We are all paying for malfeasance and vegas-style bets. The partisan glasses on both sides will only strengthen their respective positions ... I don't have a lot of hope that a political/economic epiphany will happen. It is often the brightest that have a strong hardening of the attitudes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120538-the-economy-how-to-tell-when-it-s-improving?source=feed#comment-388820 388820
Nevertheless, the index of leading indicators had more than a few false positives in predicting recessions. Reasonable people will continue to disagree about the timing and trajectory of a recovery - L, W, V, U, etc. Given the massive leveraging that has taken place and the coincident negatives savings rates, I think it will take at least a year to see some robust and consistent economic sunshine.

The 10 components of the Index (leading indicators) include:

Average number of initial applications for unemployment insurance
Number of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
Speed of delivery of new merchandise to vendors from suppliers
Amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated to defense
Amount of new building permits for residential buildings
The S&P 500 stock index
Inflation-adjusted money supply (M2)
Spread between long and short interest rates (the yield curve)
Consumer sentiment
Average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers

While this index correctly forecast each of the 7 recessions during the 1959-2001 period it also has forecast 5 recessions that did not occur.
]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 21:01:57 -0500
Nevertheless, the index of leading indicators had more than a few false positives in predicting recessions. Reasonable people will continue to disagree about the timing and trajectory of a recovery - L, W, V, U, etc. Given the massive leveraging that has taken place and the coincident negatives savings rates, I think it will take at least a year to see some robust and consistent economic sunshine.

The 10 components of the Index (leading indicators) include:

Average number of initial applications for unemployment insurance
Number of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
Speed of delivery of new merchandise to vendors from suppliers
Amount of new orders for capital goods unrelated to defense
Amount of new building permits for residential buildings
The S&P 500 stock index
Inflation-adjusted money supply (M2)
Spread between long and short interest rates (the yield curve)
Consumer sentiment
Average weekly hours worked by manufacturing workers

While this index correctly forecast each of the 7 recessions during the 1959-2001 period it also has forecast 5 recessions that did not occur.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120499-nationalizing-the-u-s-banking-sector-there-s-no-choice?source=feed#comment-388619 388619
Look at the GDP with and without Mortgage Equity Withdrawls from 2004-2007. If we didn't have MEW's, we were growing at 1%. We were living an inflated lie that was a concoction of low rates, negative savings, and materialism. There's only so much you can do about a bad hangover.]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 14:52:41 -0500
Look at the GDP with and without Mortgage Equity Withdrawls from 2004-2007. If we didn't have MEW's, we were growing at 1%. We were living an inflated lie that was a concoction of low rates, negative savings, and materialism. There's only so much you can do about a bad hangover.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120127-four-myths-about-the-obama-geithner-plan?source=feed#comment-386452 386452
Perverting the market is like playing the whack a mole game - you hit one and another pops up. The ironies in all of this are classic. The paradox of thrift is a nice bumper sticker ... some people leveraged their house, overspent, didn't save and now they have a hangover ... all the taxpayers get to buy them aspirin. I believe in personal responsibility for homeowners and clawback provisions for corporate excess. Equal opportunity.]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 19:16:21 -0500
Perverting the market is like playing the whack a mole game - you hit one and another pops up. The ironies in all of this are classic. The paradox of thrift is a nice bumper sticker ... some people leveraged their house, overspent, didn't save and now they have a hangover ... all the taxpayers get to buy them aspirin. I believe in personal responsibility for homeowners and clawback provisions for corporate excess. Equal opportunity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119893-markets-plunge-following-geithner-s-plan-and-that-s-not-a-bad-thing?source=feed#comment-383556 383556 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 08:22:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119566-u-s-unemployment-is-it-really-so-bad?source=feed#comment-382803 382803
The issue of whether an employee is a cost or investment isn't as clear. In certain roles - consulting and sales, e.g., - it's pretty easy to put a margin on each head ... some are positive and others are negative using a full loaded cost. Many companies can cut certain heads and not have the top line blink. However, the intangible ramifications of rank and yank can lower productivity for those remaining.]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:56:30 -0500
The issue of whether an employee is a cost or investment isn't as clear. In certain roles - consulting and sales, e.g., - it's pretty easy to put a margin on each head ... some are positive and others are negative using a full loaded cost. Many companies can cut certain heads and not have the top line blink. However, the intangible ramifications of rank and yank can lower productivity for those remaining.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119038-unintended-consequences-of-four-government-policies?source=feed#comment-380108 380108 Sun, 08 Feb 2009 15:30:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118627-compensation-caps-will-drive-away-talent-to-where?source=feed#comment-377523 377523 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:10:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118112-obama-s-stimulus-plan-it-s-all-about-the-framing?source=feed#comment-375550 375550 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 11:28:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117755-when-bonuses-aren-t-discretionary?source=feed#comment-372612 372612
The problem is the executive ranks. The pay for performance contract has been harmed - people get upset when companies are cratering, taxpayers are making bad investments, and executives are making millions for poor performance. Their 500k to $1m salaries are more than enough to live on - at least at the Fortune 500 level (in terms of salaries). Let's agree on the peformance level and then we can talk pay. I'm willing to pay for real "Alpha" level peformance.]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 14:00:59 -0500
The problem is the executive ranks. The pay for performance contract has been harmed - people get upset when companies are cratering, taxpayers are making bad investments, and executives are making millions for poor performance. Their 500k to $1m salaries are more than enough to live on - at least at the Fortune 500 level (in terms of salaries). Let's agree on the peformance level and then we can talk pay. I'm willing to pay for real "Alpha" level peformance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116571-at-least-43-000-new-obamaconomy-workers-freed-up?source=feed#comment-367054 367054 Mon, 26 Jan 2009 21:05:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116368-thain-s-undoing-thinking-he-s-worth-it?source=feed#comment-366283 366283 Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:37:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116237-banking-is-tanking-worse-than-ever?source=feed#comment-365412 365412 Sun, 25 Jan 2009 08:17:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116208-running-strong-again-the-four-horsemen-of-technology?source=feed#comment-365121 365121 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 15:16:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116185-google-slowly-pushing-business-app-users-toward-premium-service?source=feed#comment-365114 365114 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 15:11:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116236-john-thain-called-out-by-the-president?source=feed#comment-364953 364953 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 11:37:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115582-obama-may-have-no-choice-but-to-mimic-bush-s-bank-bailouts?source=feed#comment-363239 363239 ]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 13:58:14 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115135-restaurant-spending-then-and-now?source=feed#comment-358808 358808 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 08:10:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115126-netbook-sales-cannibalizing-notebooks-or-incremental?source=feed#comment-358580 358580 Sat, 17 Jan 2009 16:13:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114303-sap-s-ceo-and-saas-is-denial-working?source=feed#comment-358476 358476 Sat, 17 Jan 2009 12:20:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115138-why-the-housing-stats-are-lumpy?source=feed#comment-358442 358442
Good analysis - I like when people disaggregate or de-average the numbers - you can generally get a better picture and be more specific in recommendations. I think the government will have an uphill battle if they are trying to "re-create" the housing/mortgage bubble we are currently de-leveraging from - it's not an exemplar for the economy. Consumerism and leverage will eventually break down - you can only get something for nothing for so long. The dot-bomb showed us that the fundamentals of business, economics, and valuation eventually come back home. ]]> Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:01:55 -0500
Good analysis - I like when people disaggregate or de-average the numbers - you can generally get a better picture and be more specific in recommendations. I think the government will have an uphill battle if they are trying to "re-create" the housing/mortgage bubble we are currently de-leveraging from - it's not an exemplar for the economy. Consumerism and leverage will eventually break down - you can only get something for nothing for so long. The dot-bomb showed us that the fundamentals of business, economics, and valuation eventually come back home. ]]>