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  • Workday: A Great Company That's Totally Overvalued [View article]
    Hard to disagree w/ this piece ... I agree, it's a great company, but it has an astronomical valuation. We generally know how this movie ends ... but look at CRM, which has defied many expectations and shorts - however, WDAY is valued even higher ...
    Nov 30, 2012. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP: Seeking Freedom From 'Autonomy' [View article]
    This is a fascinating story ... what was known and unknown. It cross legal, ethical, and business boundaries. I keep thinking that HP could be a buy or a value trap that is sinking fast - how much worse can it get - not sure. Would PE $ start to swoop in ... the break-up value seems like it would be something. What happened with the DD on autonomy - 90% of the acquisition value is crazy. HP needs to regain trust and that will take some time - not sure anyone believes what they are saying now - trust has been shattered.
    Nov 22, 2012. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday: An Overvalued Stock Ready To Drop [View article]
    Personally, it's a bit richly valued. But I would note that WDAY goes after large F500 enterprise customers (large # of emps), whereas CRM originally targeted SMBs ... a bit of a different sale and sales cycle payoff. WDAY has high R&D costs vs. high SG&A from CRM. F500 customers want a lot of customization, but the payoff is good from a cost of sales standpoint. WDAY needs to begin to verticalize and package customizations to drop the R&D spend and leverage its implementation experiences.
    Nov 21, 2012. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday (WDAY) doesn't disappoint. Shares opened at $48.05 and are currently trading at $48.17, up 72% from a raised IPO price of $28. The gives the company, declared by some to be the future of enterprise-class HR software, a valuation of $7.7B, or 34x trailing sales. (S-1[View news story]
    It seems to have bounced off its highs - I wonder if it will begin to settle in the 30's or high 20's in a few weeks ... definitely a high multiple on sales in the high 40's. Where do people see this in the next few weeks? I could go either way ... frothiness hasn't stopped CRM, but ... still a lot of uncertainty in the market/politics, etc.
    Oct 12, 2012. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • E-Trade Returns to Profitability [View article]
    I'm just not sure where the stock goes from here ... w/o some sort of M&A event ... with all the competition in the space, it seems like you have to "buy" customers and there is continuous pressure on commissions and fees. What are the catalysts here - if any?
    Jul 13, 2011. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White House Sponsored 'Identity Ecosystem' Initiative Provides Investment Opportunities [View article]
    Note - CA Technologies is a $4.5b top-line firm, not $45b. It also is not just enterprise anymore, but has a strong play in the SMB space, as well as a channel/alliance ecosystem.
    Apr 27, 2011. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data warehousing provider Teradata (TDC) is buying cloud marketing services firm Aprimo for $525M. Together, they'll offer integrated marketing analysis capabilities. (PR)  [View news story]
    It's an interesting move ... not sure sure I would have predicted the exact relationship ... but we see a lot of back-end players and others looking to grab some of the apps area - both cloud and on-premise. Would seem to be some cross-sell potential depending on customer entry point ... back-end led > move to front-office. Front-office start and then move to back-end. I think this will happen more going forward.
    Dec 22, 2010. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Reasons Why Jobs Remain So Scarce [View article]
    You really need to stratify unemployment by the level of education ... it's up a bit for those w/ a bachelor's degree or higher - around 5% - but a significant jump for all those w/ less education ... this doesn't explain the economic and global shifts, but it does add credence to the trend that the haves vs. have nots is about skill-sets, educational attainment, and trainability/learnability signals (e.g., having a college degree, etc.) ... also, IT and automation apps are continually helping to keep productivity at reasonable levels w/ less people ... this will only continue - more clouds, burstable skills, and proactive monitoring that can fix a problem before it starts ...
    Dec 4, 2010. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
    I get the argument ... it's not new per se - we know that MS gets ~97% of their revenue via the Channel and the master areas are OS and Office, which are under attack via some viable players ... I also understand the cloud enviro and the move it's making in the SaaS, PaaS and IaaS spaces ... we also know that MS is not a $5b up-and-comer anymore ... law of large numbers ... the OEMs also can search for margin if the demand pull is sufficient and the alternatives are feasible ... I stipulate all of that ... I think the main issue is timing and M&A activity + some other bets that MS could make and needs to make ... I think it will be more of a slow drip, but as you say, if the inflection point hits the terminal value, it could begin to anchor the whole edifice ... the puts make some sense given the management of capital exposure ... I wouldn't make the bet at this point, but it's not my $ ... good luck.
    Oct 21, 2010. 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
    Good piece ... thought provoking ... per the comments, the business customers are not going to change Office or OS anytime soon ... the productivity hit would be significant - think of the Ribbon change - not pretty ...I used Google apps for 6 mos ... they are fine for certain things, but you pay a significant "price" for collaboration - buggy, slow, CPU hog at times, and feel a bit like toys. But I do understand that power users are probably not their sweet spot. I'll be interested in how Office 365 works out .... what sort of uptake and pricing model ... if the pivot here is the OEM's - I think they will need some user pull to make a change ... Dell is more business customer than consumers, for example ... follow the demand pull curve.
    Oct 21, 2010. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Ray Ozzie's Departure Affect Microsoft's Cloud Computing Future? [View article]
    Office 365 is one move toward cosolidating the SaaS offerings ... we'll see how it plays out ... I've heard that Azure is coming along ... MS usually takes a few at-bats to get it right ...
    Oct 21, 2010. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Challenges Grow for Server Vendors [View article]
    The cloud overlay is not insignificant here ... can also look at the Mainframe, which has had some resurgence - security, reliability, and on-the-fly upgrades ... I think there are a number of converging factors that are contributing to minimizing server sprawl ...
    Oct 10, 2010. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Lessons from Tiger Woods [View article]
    Hard to disagree with this piece ... the human animal seems to always be in search of a Silver Bullet - whether it's fitness, stocks, looks, success, etc. You name it - it's the pill mentality. I do think stocks are extended - the government (taxpayer) infusion of money is mind-boggling - all the stimuli, backstops, bailouts, etc. When this spigot turns off, there has to be some impact. I don't see the consumer getting too extended for at least 3-5 years - after the memory or hangover of the last couple of years wears off. Then ...
    Jan 18, 2010. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Software Sector Outlook - Goldman Sachs [View article]
    I would definitely ratify the storage piece ... given the data explosion, session and presence trails, and trending - there is no shortage of the need for storage. On the app side, the analytics space - descriptive and predictive - is often the consumer of all the data - the SaaS players are starting to crack into this w/ easy adoption and consumption - think in the mid-90's - less functionality than Siebel, but a lot easier to use. The greatest system never used isn't so great.
    Dec 15, 2009. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fernholz vs. Taibbi [View article]
    I agree w/ Felix - the differences here seem much ado about nothing - the general themes are aligned. Matt is definitely a polemical writer - he does a nice job of thumbnailing and creating caricatures of people - most of it seems accurate, but key points are amplified and dramatized. He reminds me of Hunter S. Thompson at times. There were a couple of key principles in Matt's latest screed - (1) follow the money; (2) understand the power center and who is appointed to positions w/ power/teeth. Watch what people do; don't listen to what they say.
    Dec 14, 2009. 09:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment