M-P

Still Blaming the Market Victims

There are some fundamental truths in this piece around saving and consuming. Those that save and defer often (not all the time) subsidize those who consume and want immediacy (on a personal and country basis). As low as rates were, many people did not bite - they did not change their fundamental equation around inflows and outflows. There were definitely some lax underwriting standards and ratings, but we know who they are paid by - the very people they are rating. Skepticism is a good mindset to have when things sound too good to be true. Not everyone should be able to get easy credit or they should at least pay the consequences for their decisions - no public net. Prudence and prioritization should be rewarded.

Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

I think we are in a bear rally personally ... it's not a "free" market at this point ... it has a major governmental overhang that is changing the dynamics, which is why it's hard to play. One reason the market was up after the 533K job loss figure is that everyone thought it was bad enough for the government to step up the auto bailout and the fill-in-the-blank bailout. The credit card shoe will fall in the next few months, along with numerous other credit lines ... the government can create jobs, but it will take some time before the major corporations start hiring again - also, look at the wage delta between jobs lost and jobs created ... financial services jobs pay at the top of the scale - public works jobs do not. Add-in the delevering piece and I think we will challenge previous lows.