trandall1991

Nickel in a Pickle

The quality of steel goods shipped from china has gone to hell in a handbasket because of their skimping on nickel. If you bought any knives or flatware in the past year, you had might as well throw them away: They will rust.

Vale Wants More for Its Iron Ore; China Won't Budge

The supposed cost premium has vanished as shipping rates have declined from $239000 per diem to $68000 per diem for capemax vessels. Vale's iron is the cheapest iron in China right now, and they want to keep it that way, so they are manipulating the Qingdao spot market by dumping stockpiles and constraining consumption. That can't last long, since it will idle the nation's industrial base. Doing so is not an option -- it could feasibly precipitate a coup d'etat. Now the CCCP could decide to blackball Vale, but it would be muy stupido to do so, as Vale is the 2nd largest ore producer and has a virtual monopoly on nickel worldwide. (You may have noticed the dramatic decline in the quality of Chinese stainless steel, as they economize on nickel.) China is being squeezed and since they have deep pockets they think that they can squeeze back. Ain't gonna happen for long though, because their opponent isn't Vale, it's the whole global market economy.

Vale Pushes China for Higher Steel Prices

The chinese govt appears to be manipulating the qingdao spot market down in an effort to push back on Vale. They are also filing false newsreports via Xinhua et filia regarding Rio's supposed idling of ships (denied by the vastly more reliable Rio CEO). This is high-stakes poker, with the worlds largest industrial economy and the government with the largest forex reserves in the world versus the #2 ore miner and effective nickel monopolist. Clearly China, Inc., has deeper pockets than Vale, but all of the forces of the market are on Vale's side, and it remains to be seen whether China can keep it's industrial base operational if half of their iron supply and all of their nickel supply is cut off. You may have noticed the deteriorating quality of Chinese stainless (due to economizing on nickel). If their industrial capacity is idled nationally, a coup d'etat is not impossible.