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Buyer Beware: 30 Biggest Bankruptcy Risks

Culd u put the spreads? thnx

Why I'm Shorting Commercial Real Estate

Where would you get the financing to buy the Replacement Cost?

Ever look at the CMBS market?

Or would you buy it in cash.

On Apr 23 11:57 AM jimmy46 wrote:

> So you have 6 shorts in this sector,
> I see that the REITs are selling at 66% of replacement cost and think
> they are a bargain.
>
> You started touting shorting this sector a few months ago,
> I'd guess that hasn't worked out for you.
> We each place our bet and see who wins.

Stephanie Martin Krewson on Investing in REITs

This woman is the dedicated REIT cheerleader

A great way for her to try to get II votes from her clients and move up the analyst ladder instead of working at this bucket shop

Her clients will hate her for being bearish and her shop won't get paid through stock order flow if they don't like what she is saying!

Must-Know Info for Investing in Commercial REITS, If You Dare

The rallies in the REITS is all part of The Conspiracy of Hope.

The latest spark was the Goldman upgrade of SPG. The pundits have piled in. Now there is talk of REITs buying the secured debt of more battered REITS.

Don't these REITS have their own refinancing issues. But wait, SPG is up 60% from where it sold stock. They should just sell even more stock! Sell stock until the market says no!

Goldman Sachs Backlash Is Picking Up Steam

Goldman is allowed to break the law. They staff the government.

Note that no one every goes after a Goldman Exec.

Weekly Observations: Even with Government Intervention, Deflation Risks Continue

shhhhhh....cnbc and the media wants nothing to do with this

lets make it 7 weeks in a row of gains!

Obama's Economics Speech: The Man Is Good

Obama is a guy who knows how to spin spin spin and you are buying into the propaganda.

Do you write for the Huffington Post too? Are you buddies with Zach Karabell?

Kimco Realty Shores Up the Balance Sheet

Great write up by Zero Hedge

zerohedge.blogspot.com...

Kimco's Massive Offering Is Not a Great Sign

ML and DB are long a ton of CRE
ML and DB underwrote KIM equity offering
ML upgraded KIM stock

funny how that works

expect to see more of this in the space spg did a bond deal at 10.75% a few weeks ago why bother with expensive debt when companies can move down the capital structure with cheap stock right now improving balance sheets for survival trumps earnings dillution

What Hancock Tower Sale Means for Commercial Real Estate - Morgan Stanley

zero hedge haha u rock

so here s the problem...when does this rally end? after goldman earnings and post the take out the tarp extravaganza is in mid waltz?

Exclusive: Big Banks' Recent Profitability Due to AIG Scam?

Great article

very interesting i am going to see some cds traders this week it will be interesting what they say

Happy Days: Here Again?

Well done. Phase 1 of Operation TARP Removal complete.

Phase 2 will be Goldman beating estimates to drive the stock up so they can dump it to paydown TARP.

Phase 3 will be a few other banks to follow.

Then when we hit a barf in the summer, the banks will have better capital ratios and the government will have "fresh capital" to help private investors lever up with most of the risk going to the U.S. tax payer.

The New Normal

I've been around the CDS market. It's the worst thing ever.

It dwarfs the actual cash market and its that leverage that ratcheted credit spreads so tight and also allowed the financial system to get torn apart.

The mentality of CDS traders were to get as big as possible. It was a game of balance sheet warfare where trades could only show a nickel of risk on the balance sheet for each $1 of real risk they took.

Fortunately, this will all change. The government induced housing derby was like the introduction of cocaine and the CDS market is like the invention of the crack.

Mark-to-Market: The Bogeyman of the 1930s Is Back

Well said. He who wins gets to write history.

Obama is using the FDR playbook to transfer power from the private sector to the government.

He is paying the teachers to encourage educators to teach the young he is the greatest.

As far as mark to market accounting goes, banks acted like hedge funds that played games with their marks. There can't be different sets of rules for investors and the rules of the game cannot keep on changing. The problems are too big for the government to clean up on its own and private capital knows what the banks hold. Even if the banking stocks rally, the investor base looking to deploy capital to buy distressed assets will remain on the sidelines until they feel comfortable there is not a giant seller lurking on the first uptick (the banks).

These gyrations in the stock market are quite similar to The Great Depression.

online.barrons.com/mdc...

On Mar 14 01:47 PM 123jdp wrote:

> I am so tired of non-accounting experts espousing views on FV. Please,
> buddy, 157 did not change when and where FV is applied. So, the
> premise of your article is completely false. We have been applying
> FV for decades and been doing mark to model for over a decade that
> I know of. This is nothing new. And, by the way, most community
> banks, the loudest compaliners about 157 and FV don't have many assets
> to which FV applies. Loans are carried at historical cost with an
> allowance for loan losses determined on a probably and estimable
> (FAS 5) basis. This is not FV. The real problem here is the banks
> don't want to admit to themsleve or their regulators that they have
> some loans that need reserves and that they have used bad models
> in the past for FV assets. As well, the regulators, like the OCC
> are in bed with the entities they regulate. They have been in these
> banks and seen the accounting and done nothing. Now they are in
> bed with the banks who made bad decisions, followed by bad or at
> least slow accounting.
>
> As to FDR's actions on FV. One expert. Lynne Turner, former Chief
> Accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission, testified before
> Congress this past week that he beleive the action by FDR to stop
> FV accounting actually extended the depression. Again, your view
> of the facts is contrary to experts in the field.
>
> Those who are lay people on this site - please, don't beleive everything
> you hear. You either need to do your own analysis if you are able
> or talk to and listen to REAL experts.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's 2008 Annual Letter

Old guys are krazy. Remember Kapitan Kirk Keokrian with GM and Ford? There comes a time in Old Doods' lives when they care more about legacy and proving they can still get it up than rational investing decisions.

I think Buffet wants to be remembered as a patriot. He has more than enough money. At this point he wants his legacy as the man that helped save America and not as the hedge fund whipersnappers of Wall Street that destroyed it.

I gotta give The Buffet credit. He is a man willing to go down with the ship.

If he wasn't so old I'd like to get a serving of some BRK.B at The Old Country Buffet. But like every great company with a charismatic leader, it is buyer beware when The Bill Gates, Jack Welsches, and Steve Jobs of the world step down.