{5U}'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/271127/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/131653-buyer-beware-30-biggest-bankruptcy-risks?source=feed#comment-480357 480357 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 02:22:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132453-why-i-m-shorting-commercial-real-estate?source=feed#comment-475215 475215
Ever look at the CMBS market?

Or would you buy it in cash.

On Apr 23 11:57 AM jimmy46 wrote:

> So you have 6 shorts in this sector,
> I see that the REITs are selling at 66% of replacement cost and think
> they are a bargain.
>
> You started touting shorting this sector a few months ago,
> I'd guess that hasn't worked out for you.
> We each place our bet and see who wins.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 00:01:43 -0400
Ever look at the CMBS market?

Or would you buy it in cash.

On Apr 23 11:57 AM jimmy46 wrote:

> So you have 6 shorts in this sector,
> I see that the REITs are selling at 66% of replacement cost and think
> they are a bargain.
>
> You started touting shorting this sector a few months ago,
> I'd guess that hasn't worked out for you.
> We each place our bet and see who wins.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67817-stephanie-martin-krewson-on-investing-in-reits?source=feed#comment-467891 467891
A great way for her to try to get II votes from her clients and move up the analyst ladder instead of working at this bucket shop

Her clients will hate her for being bearish and her shop won't get paid through stock order flow if they don't like what she is saying!]]> Sat, 18 Apr 2009 19:56:37 -0400
A great way for her to try to get II votes from her clients and move up the analyst ladder instead of working at this bucket shop

Her clients will hate her for being bearish and her shop won't get paid through stock order flow if they don't like what she is saying!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131503-must-know-info-for-investing-in-commercial-reits-if-you-dare?source=feed#comment-467275 467275
The latest spark was the Goldman upgrade of SPG. The pundits have piled in. Now there is talk of REITs buying the secured debt of more battered REITS.

Don't these REITS have their own refinancing issues. But wait, SPG is up 60% from where it sold stock. They should just sell even more stock! Sell stock until the market says no!]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:55:43 -0400
The latest spark was the Goldman upgrade of SPG. The pundits have piled in. Now there is talk of REITs buying the secured debt of more battered REITS.

Don't these REITS have their own refinancing issues. But wait, SPG is up 60% from where it sold stock. They should just sell even more stock! Sell stock until the market says no!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130739-goldman-sachs-backlash-is-picking-up-steam?source=feed#comment-467239 467239
Note that no one every goes after a Goldman Exec.]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:41:55 -0400
Note that no one every goes after a Goldman Exec.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131518-weekly-observations-even-with-government-intervention-deflation-risks-continue?source=feed#comment-467233 467233
lets make it 7 weeks in a row of gains!]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:28:42 -0400
lets make it 7 weeks in a row of gains!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131164-obama-s-economics-speech-the-man-is-good?source=feed#comment-464813 464813
Do you write for the Huffington Post too? Are you buddies with Zach Karabell?

]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 08:48:45 -0400
Do you write for the Huffington Post too? Are you buddies with Zach Karabell?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129393-kimco-realty-shores-up-the-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-451940 451940
zerohedge.blogspot.com...
]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 21:02:31 -0400
zerohedge.blogspot.com...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129290-kimco-s-massive-offering-is-not-a-great-sign?source=feed#comment-451429 451429 ML and DB underwrote KIM equity offering
ML upgraded KIM stock

funny how that works

expect to see more of this in the space spg did a bond deal at 10.75% a few weeks ago why bother with expensive debt when companies can move down the capital structure with cheap stock right now improving balance sheets for survival trumps earnings dillution]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 21:33:59 -0400 ML and DB underwrote KIM equity offering
ML upgraded KIM stock

funny how that works

expect to see more of this in the space spg did a bond deal at 10.75% a few weeks ago why bother with expensive debt when companies can move down the capital structure with cheap stock right now improving balance sheets for survival trumps earnings dillution]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128974-what-hancock-tower-sale-means-for-commercial-real-estate-morgan-stanley?source=feed#comment-448565 448565
so here s the problem...when does this rally end? after goldman earnings and post the take out the tarp extravaganza is in mid waltz?]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 19:09:35 -0400
so here s the problem...when does this rally end? after goldman earnings and post the take out the tarp extravaganza is in mid waltz?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128390-exclusive-big-banks-recent-profitability-due-to-aig-scam?source=feed#comment-447086 447086
very interesting i am going to see some cds traders this week it will be interesting what they say]]> Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:25:54 -0400
very interesting i am going to see some cds traders this week it will be interesting what they say]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126036-happy-days-here-again?source=feed#comment-427014 427014
Phase 2 will be Goldman beating estimates to drive the stock up so they can dump it to paydown TARP.

Phase 3 will be a few other banks to follow.

Then when we hit a barf in the summer, the banks will have better capital ratios and the government will have "fresh capital" to help private investors lever up with most of the risk going to the U.S. tax payer.


]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 21:06:29 -0400
Phase 2 will be Goldman beating estimates to drive the stock up so they can dump it to paydown TARP.

Phase 3 will be a few other banks to follow.

Then when we hit a barf in the summer, the banks will have better capital ratios and the government will have "fresh capital" to help private investors lever up with most of the risk going to the U.S. tax payer.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125978-the-new-normal?source=feed#comment-426369 426369
It dwarfs the actual cash market and its that leverage that ratcheted credit spreads so tight and also allowed the financial system to get torn apart.

The mentality of CDS traders were to get as big as possible. It was a game of balance sheet warfare where trades could only show a nickel of risk on the balance sheet for each $1 of real risk they took.

Fortunately, this will all change. The government induced housing derby was like the introduction of cocaine and the CDS market is like the invention of the crack.]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:39:26 -0400
It dwarfs the actual cash market and its that leverage that ratcheted credit spreads so tight and also allowed the financial system to get torn apart.

The mentality of CDS traders were to get as big as possible. It was a game of balance sheet warfare where trades could only show a nickel of risk on the balance sheet for each $1 of real risk they took.

Fortunately, this will all change. The government induced housing derby was like the introduction of cocaine and the CDS market is like the invention of the crack.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125914-mark-to-market-the-bogeyman-of-the-1930s-is-back?source=feed#comment-426361 426361
Obama is using the FDR playbook to transfer power from the private sector to the government.

He is paying the teachers to encourage educators to teach the young he is the greatest.

As far as mark to market accounting goes, banks acted like hedge funds that played games with their marks. There can't be different sets of rules for investors and the rules of the game cannot keep on changing. The problems are too big for the government to clean up on its own and private capital knows what the banks hold. Even if the banking stocks rally, the investor base looking to deploy capital to buy distressed assets will remain on the sidelines until they feel comfortable there is not a giant seller lurking on the first uptick (the banks).

These gyrations in the stock market are quite similar to The Great Depression.

online.barrons.com/mdc...

On Mar 14 01:47 PM 123jdp wrote:

> I am so tired of non-accounting experts espousing views on FV. Please,
> buddy, 157 did not change when and where FV is applied. So, the
> premise of your article is completely false. We have been applying
> FV for decades and been doing mark to model for over a decade that
> I know of. This is nothing new. And, by the way, most community
> banks, the loudest compaliners about 157 and FV don't have many assets
> to which FV applies. Loans are carried at historical cost with an
> allowance for loan losses determined on a probably and estimable
> (FAS 5) basis. This is not FV. The real problem here is the banks
> don't want to admit to themsleve or their regulators that they have
> some loans that need reserves and that they have used bad models
> in the past for FV assets. As well, the regulators, like the OCC
> are in bed with the entities they regulate. They have been in these
> banks and seen the accounting and done nothing. Now they are in
> bed with the banks who made bad decisions, followed by bad or at
> least slow accounting.
>
> As to FDR's actions on FV. One expert. Lynne Turner, former Chief
> Accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission, testified before
> Congress this past week that he beleive the action by FDR to stop
> FV accounting actually extended the depression. Again, your view
> of the facts is contrary to experts in the field.
>
> Those who are lay people on this site - please, don't beleive everything
> you hear. You either need to do your own analysis if you are able
> or talk to and listen to REAL experts.]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:33:16 -0400
Obama is using the FDR playbook to transfer power from the private sector to the government.

He is paying the teachers to encourage educators to teach the young he is the greatest.

As far as mark to market accounting goes, banks acted like hedge funds that played games with their marks. There can't be different sets of rules for investors and the rules of the game cannot keep on changing. The problems are too big for the government to clean up on its own and private capital knows what the banks hold. Even if the banking stocks rally, the investor base looking to deploy capital to buy distressed assets will remain on the sidelines until they feel comfortable there is not a giant seller lurking on the first uptick (the banks).

These gyrations in the stock market are quite similar to The Great Depression.

online.barrons.com/mdc...

On Mar 14 01:47 PM 123jdp wrote:

> I am so tired of non-accounting experts espousing views on FV. Please,
> buddy, 157 did not change when and where FV is applied. So, the
> premise of your article is completely false. We have been applying
> FV for decades and been doing mark to model for over a decade that
> I know of. This is nothing new. And, by the way, most community
> banks, the loudest compaliners about 157 and FV don't have many assets
> to which FV applies. Loans are carried at historical cost with an
> allowance for loan losses determined on a probably and estimable
> (FAS 5) basis. This is not FV. The real problem here is the banks
> don't want to admit to themsleve or their regulators that they have
> some loans that need reserves and that they have used bad models
> in the past for FV assets. As well, the regulators, like the OCC
> are in bed with the entities they regulate. They have been in these
> banks and seen the accounting and done nothing. Now they are in
> bed with the banks who made bad decisions, followed by bad or at
> least slow accounting.
>
> As to FDR's actions on FV. One expert. Lynne Turner, former Chief
> Accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission, testified before
> Congress this past week that he beleive the action by FDR to stop
> FV accounting actually extended the depression. Again, your view
> of the facts is contrary to experts in the field.
>
> Those who are lay people on this site - please, don't beleive everything
> you hear. You either need to do your own analysis if you are able
> or talk to and listen to REAL experts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123429-warren-buffett-s-berkshire-hathaway-s-2008-annual-letter?source=feed#comment-408637 408637
I think Buffet wants to be remembered as a patriot. He has more than enough money. At this point he wants his legacy as the man that helped save America and not as the hedge fund whipersnappers of Wall Street that destroyed it.

I gotta give The Buffet credit. He is a man willing to go down with the ship.

If he wasn't so old I'd like to get a serving of some BRK.B at The Old Country Buffet. But like every great company with a charismatic leader, it is buyer beware when The Bill Gates, Jack Welsches, and Steve Jobs of the world step down.]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 21:58:59 -0500
I think Buffet wants to be remembered as a patriot. He has more than enough money. At this point he wants his legacy as the man that helped save America and not as the hedge fund whipersnappers of Wall Street that destroyed it.

I gotta give The Buffet credit. He is a man willing to go down with the ship.

If he wasn't so old I'd like to get a serving of some BRK.B at The Old Country Buffet. But like every great company with a charismatic leader, it is buyer beware when The Bill Gates, Jack Welsches, and Steve Jobs of the world step down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123432-mortgage-refinancing-is-not-the-solution?source=feed#comment-408635 408635
The longer they hide the more uncertainty there is. And as we all know, the market hates uncertainty.

Obama could have focused on making the banks go open kimono but instead he wasted his time with the $780 trillion sausage named porkulus...uh...i mean stimulus...


On Mar 01 06:31 PM D_Virginia wrote:

> ...and?
>
> We know about all these problems already, what are your proposed
> solutions? I see no analysis here, just history and summary.
>
> To quote your own words, "a fundamental tenet of problem solving
> is to have solutions". I couldn't agree more, but how's that working
> out for you??
>
> You, sir, are wasting my bandwidth.]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 21:57:47 -0500
The longer they hide the more uncertainty there is. And as we all know, the market hates uncertainty.

Obama could have focused on making the banks go open kimono but instead he wasted his time with the $780 trillion sausage named porkulus...uh...i mean stimulus...


On Mar 01 06:31 PM D_Virginia wrote:

> ...and?
>
> We know about all these problems already, what are your proposed
> solutions? I see no analysis here, just history and summary.
>
> To quote your own words, "a fundamental tenet of problem solving
> is to have solutions". I couldn't agree more, but how's that working
> out for you??
>
> You, sir, are wasting my bandwidth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123331-was-the-global-equities-crash-related-to-obama-s-election?source=feed#comment-408633 408633
And we are in the hands of politicans. Scary. I don't care what party they are from. I don't trust em.

And neither does Mr. Market]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 21:55:10 -0500
And we are in the hands of politicans. Scary. I don't care what party they are from. I don't trust em.

And neither does Mr. Market]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123433-give-buffett-credit-he-tells-it-straight?source=feed#comment-408598 408598
I think Buffet wants to be remembered as a patriot. He has more than enough money. At this point he wants his legacy as the man that helped save America and not as the hedge fund whipersnappers of Wall Street that destroyed it.

I gotta give The Buffet credit. He is a man willing to go down with the ship.

If he wasn't so old I'd like to get a serving of some BRK.B at The Old Country Buffet. But like every great company with a charismatic leader, it is buyer beware when The Bill Gates, Jack Welsches, and Steve Jobs of the world step down.]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 21:24:31 -0500
I think Buffet wants to be remembered as a patriot. He has more than enough money. At this point he wants his legacy as the man that helped save America and not as the hedge fund whipersnappers of Wall Street that destroyed it.

I gotta give The Buffet credit. He is a man willing to go down with the ship.

If he wasn't so old I'd like to get a serving of some BRK.B at The Old Country Buffet. But like every great company with a charismatic leader, it is buyer beware when The Bill Gates, Jack Welsches, and Steve Jobs of the world step down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113100-a-bull-is-born-2009?source=feed#comment-406712 406712

I've worked on Wall Street for 11 years so I have a bit of an edge on ya.

This is a total mess. And the current administration is a nitemare.

Any rally is of the bear market kind so you sell it. BIggest upcrashes are in bear markets.

So many more shoes to drop.]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 23:19:52 -0500

I've worked on Wall Street for 11 years so I have a bit of an edge on ya.

This is a total mess. And the current administration is a nitemare.

Any rally is of the bear market kind so you sell it. BIggest upcrashes are in bear markets.

So many more shoes to drop.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122339-commercial-real-estate-is-the-other-shoe-about-to-drop?source=feed#comment-402357 402357



On Feb 24 08:10 PM Tom Lindmark wrote:

> jstratt,
>
> Vacancies and related statistics like sublease space have to be viewed
> on a local basis. National statistics are close to meaningless. I
> agree that there will be some bargains. How the commercial properties
> are sold by the bank or the government will determine how deep the
> bargain.
>
> The underwriting problem with CRE was that investors overpaid and
> lenders justified the debt by accepting proforma rent projections
> that never had a chance of being realized. Too much leverage was
> employed and the going-in operating cash short fall was carried by
> interest reserves. Operating cash flow has no chance of ever achieving
> projected levels so you just wait for the interest reserve to run
> out and then it's hand back the keys time.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:28:20 -0500



On Feb 24 08:10 PM Tom Lindmark wrote:

> jstratt,
>
> Vacancies and related statistics like sublease space have to be viewed
> on a local basis. National statistics are close to meaningless. I
> agree that there will be some bargains. How the commercial properties
> are sold by the bank or the government will determine how deep the
> bargain.
>
> The underwriting problem with CRE was that investors overpaid and
> lenders justified the debt by accepting proforma rent projections
> that never had a chance of being realized. Too much leverage was
> employed and the going-in operating cash short fall was carried by
> interest reserves. Operating cash flow has no chance of ever achieving
> projected levels so you just wait for the interest reserve to run
> out and then it's hand back the keys time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122416-bond-expert-tuesday-wrap?source=feed#comment-402351 402351 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:21:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121858-cnbc-s-specious-reporting-on-the-housing-plan?source=feed#comment-399635 399635
A lot of them switched their vote to Obama only after the stock market crashed post Lehman.

Populist policies sound good when coming from that deep baritone voice as Obama is one of the best orators of all time....but Obama could also sell snow to an eskimo in the dead of winter.

A good chunk of this country think OJ was innocent...Obama has a free pass to continue to use that sweet sounding deep baritone to run this country into the ground and set up his 2nd election term.

I would not be surprised if he built a monument of himself with the second slug of stimulus money he will ask for under the guise of acting "boldy and swiftly".]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 07:41:26 -0500
A lot of them switched their vote to Obama only after the stock market crashed post Lehman.

Populist policies sound good when coming from that deep baritone voice as Obama is one of the best orators of all time....but Obama could also sell snow to an eskimo in the dead of winter.

A good chunk of this country think OJ was innocent...Obama has a free pass to continue to use that sweet sounding deep baritone to run this country into the ground and set up his 2nd election term.

I would not be surprised if he built a monument of himself with the second slug of stimulus money he will ask for under the guise of acting "boldy and swiftly".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121046-stimulus-bill-signed-now-will-it-work?source=feed#comment-392954 392954
Something gets lost along the way. There is nothing lean about pork.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 23:25:37 -0500
Something gets lost along the way. There is nothing lean about pork.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120886-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-391828 391828
Go ask Cramer what that means. BOND BULLIES (cause they are smarter than ya!)]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 09:25:33 -0500
Go ask Cramer what that means. BOND BULLIES (cause they are smarter than ya!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120580-apple-hope-ebbs-for-cheaper-iphone-but-flows-for-cheaper-data-plans?source=feed#comment-388405 388405
]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 10:40:14 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119593-reits-off-to-slow-start-in-2009?source=feed#comment-384558 384558
Debt is the much easier investment than stocks right now. Why bother with REITs if investment grade and higher quality high yield bonds offer equity like returns without the volatility and negative fundamental head winds?

CRE also tends to lag the recession. REITS have billions of debt maturities that need to be refinanced the next few years and the only reason why the stocks are not lower is because the sector is a crowded short. Ever look at the short interest?
]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:31:51 -0500
Debt is the much easier investment than stocks right now. Why bother with REITs if investment grade and higher quality high yield bonds offer equity like returns without the volatility and negative fundamental head winds?

CRE also tends to lag the recession. REITS have billions of debt maturities that need to be refinanced the next few years and the only reason why the stocks are not lower is because the sector is a crowded short. Ever look at the short interest?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119603-homebuilders-agree-january-was-a-good-month?source=feed#comment-382025 382025

]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 07:57:53 -0500

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113187-four-reasons-to-own-dow-chemical?source=feed#comment-374838 374838
How you doin on Dow???]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:59:56 -0500
How you doin on Dow???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113100-a-bull-is-born-2009?source=feed#comment-373776 373776 Mon, 02 Feb 2009 16:32:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117147-cruise-line-stocks-may-be-the-next-to-sink?source=feed#comment-369678 369678

On Jan 28 06:15 PM Vobogeck wrote:

> As I have mentioned before, Seeking Alpha should be re-labelled to
> reflect its position as the favourite vehicle for shorts like Trader
> Mark to publish scare stories like this. These sort of stories become
> self-fulfilling as the chicken littles dump the stock.
>
> There is no "analysis" in this article, just more regurgitating of
> other people's doom and gloom. Is it possible that cruise line stocks
> being down more than 50% already factors in the bad news?
>
> Disclosure: I have not cancelled my Alaska cruise booking, have
> already been upgraded once, and look forward to cruising on a half
> empty ship. My sister in law is also looking forward to her carribean
> cruise next month.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 08:45:35 -0500

On Jan 28 06:15 PM Vobogeck wrote:

> As I have mentioned before, Seeking Alpha should be re-labelled to
> reflect its position as the favourite vehicle for shorts like Trader
> Mark to publish scare stories like this. These sort of stories become
> self-fulfilling as the chicken littles dump the stock.
>
> There is no "analysis" in this article, just more regurgitating of
> other people's doom and gloom. Is it possible that cruise line stocks
> being down more than 50% already factors in the bad news?
>
> Disclosure: I have not cancelled my Alaska cruise booking, have
> already been upgraded once, and look forward to cruising on a half
> empty ship. My sister in law is also looking forward to her carribean
> cruise next month.]]>