Kinnick

Finally, Some Holiday Cheer

This is not what a bottom looks like. This is what SEARCHING for a bottom in the midst of a bear market rally looks like. Fun to ride to the top, but then you gotta hop off and take profits.

This was a welcomed but very much overbought and overhyped last 5 trading days, on pitifully weak volume, on no good news. Bought some energy shorts this afternoon, will short more as the market goes up. The Dow closed above its MA(50) on December 8th and 16th as well: look back at the charts to see what happened after that. Stochastics are well above 80, this is way overbought, everyone is shouting ra ra ra and being far too sunny. If you opened any long positions today, either you know something no one else does, or you just got caught up in the hype.

HHoover is spot on: i think we'll trade in a marginally higher range until post-inauguration, then hold on to your hats, it's gonna be brutal.

Global Stock Markets: Highs, Lows and What to Expect in 2009

Pretty tough to give much validity to the trading range for the last week of december with the light volume. We nudged just north of the MA50 on the S&P, but with so little conviction I just can't believe it. We've did this in mid December as well, and while the MA50 appears to be leveling, the lack of volume gives is much less credibility.

I closed a few long positions today. I'm not bullish on Q1 2009, but lord knows I've been wrong before. We'll see what happens on January 5th.