SeeTheLight's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/272191/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170475-gold-is-not-in-a-bull-market?source=feed#comment-741893 741893
Okay, that rejoinder over with. I think Gold is a good investment class in moderation. I just recently took profits on my gold and silver since I feel it has gone too far too fast. By all means hold on to it, but if you are close to retirement you may want consider selling some now since it is near its all time high. Sure keep some in case it goes higher, but don't miss the opportunity you missed in the 80s again!

I agree with everything Nader said, this is most definitely a Gold bubble mostly on the back off a US Dollar Bear (and there is nothing wrong with that, what is wrong is not profiting off the bubble). The telling point is that most of the liquidity that is being printed around the world is not being invested into hard assets like factories, roads, infrastructure or even jobs that can increase productivity (and truly be inflationary). No, its being thrown into investments like stocks, bonds, commodities and yes even Gold and Silver. This cash has no where to go, and the rising tide is lifting all boats (except the fiat currencies themselves. Note commodity based currencies like the Canadian Dollar, Aussie Dollar and Brazilian Real have actually had gold prices remain largely stable).

But most of the naysayers on this board keep saying "This time its different!". History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes, and Nader's right in my opinion, unless the US goes Hyper-Inflationary (which I admit is a remote but growing possibility) gold is strictly a momentum play here. If (or mostly likely the better word is when) the FED starts tightening, the Gold bubble will pop and it will be ugly. People see Obama spending like mad, but all of it is a drop in the bucket compared to the FEDs actions. They don't even need to raise interest rates, just a slowing of the QE and curbing the expansion of its balance sheets will start the trend. The key will be do they stop purchasing treasuries or do they extend that program in the next month. Watch for it.

Just be careful with your emotions, we've just seen major bubbles in Internet Stocks, Housing, Oil, Emerging Market stocks, Commodities, why do people believe Gold is different? It is just simply an asset class, with its own intrinsic benefits and deficiencies. Don't be fooled into becoming a gold bug (unless you have already bought your Uzi). No one wants to be the last one out in a bubble, rather you want to be the first one out, even if it isn't the height of the party.

Good Luck all


On Nov 02 12:28 PM rcro wrote:

> I started buying gold coins in the early 50's. I thought the sales
> person was trying to rip me off when he told me the 1 oz St Gaudens
> coin I wanted to buy would cost about $50. Gold was $35 an ounce
> at that time. The sales person told me it cost so much because it
> was bright and uncirculated.. You could not buy bullion coins at
> that time because it was illegal, but there was no law against collecting
> gold or silver coins. That was the first coin I bought. I can't remember
> the exact amount I paid, but it was a little over $50. I also cashed
> my paycheck at the bank and requested the cashier to give me part
> payment in silver dollars. He kept a bag of new silver coins on the
> counter. Since then, I have been buying as much gold and silver as
> I could afford. I now have a large hoard. My wife says we have too
> much; but I don't think you can ever have too much.
>
> My aunt was a stockbroker, so I also bought stock even though I know
> the stock market is rigged. I don't want to tell you how much I have
> lost in the stock market but gold and silver coins have made my retirement
> secure.
>
> I think the author of the above article makes many valid points.
> He obviously is very well informed. I printed out the article and
> have put it in my file for future reference. There is no question
> in my mind that gold and silver will go up and down in price, but
> I will continue to buy and hold. I have never sold any gold and silver
> coins. Maybe I should have sold because it has tanked on several
> occasions. You would be surprised to know how it has grown in value
> over the years. You may not get rich quick, but there is nothing
> wrong with getting rich slowly.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:26:19 -0500
Okay, that rejoinder over with. I think Gold is a good investment class in moderation. I just recently took profits on my gold and silver since I feel it has gone too far too fast. By all means hold on to it, but if you are close to retirement you may want consider selling some now since it is near its all time high. Sure keep some in case it goes higher, but don't miss the opportunity you missed in the 80s again!

I agree with everything Nader said, this is most definitely a Gold bubble mostly on the back off a US Dollar Bear (and there is nothing wrong with that, what is wrong is not profiting off the bubble). The telling point is that most of the liquidity that is being printed around the world is not being invested into hard assets like factories, roads, infrastructure or even jobs that can increase productivity (and truly be inflationary). No, its being thrown into investments like stocks, bonds, commodities and yes even Gold and Silver. This cash has no where to go, and the rising tide is lifting all boats (except the fiat currencies themselves. Note commodity based currencies like the Canadian Dollar, Aussie Dollar and Brazilian Real have actually had gold prices remain largely stable).

But most of the naysayers on this board keep saying "This time its different!". History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes, and Nader's right in my opinion, unless the US goes Hyper-Inflationary (which I admit is a remote but growing possibility) gold is strictly a momentum play here. If (or mostly likely the better word is when) the FED starts tightening, the Gold bubble will pop and it will be ugly. People see Obama spending like mad, but all of it is a drop in the bucket compared to the FEDs actions. They don't even need to raise interest rates, just a slowing of the QE and curbing the expansion of its balance sheets will start the trend. The key will be do they stop purchasing treasuries or do they extend that program in the next month. Watch for it.

Just be careful with your emotions, we've just seen major bubbles in Internet Stocks, Housing, Oil, Emerging Market stocks, Commodities, why do people believe Gold is different? It is just simply an asset class, with its own intrinsic benefits and deficiencies. Don't be fooled into becoming a gold bug (unless you have already bought your Uzi). No one wants to be the last one out in a bubble, rather you want to be the first one out, even if it isn't the height of the party.

Good Luck all


On Nov 02 12:28 PM rcro wrote:

> I started buying gold coins in the early 50's. I thought the sales
> person was trying to rip me off when he told me the 1 oz St Gaudens
> coin I wanted to buy would cost about $50. Gold was $35 an ounce
> at that time. The sales person told me it cost so much because it
> was bright and uncirculated.. You could not buy bullion coins at
> that time because it was illegal, but there was no law against collecting
> gold or silver coins. That was the first coin I bought. I can't remember
> the exact amount I paid, but it was a little over $50. I also cashed
> my paycheck at the bank and requested the cashier to give me part
> payment in silver dollars. He kept a bag of new silver coins on the
> counter. Since then, I have been buying as much gold and silver as
> I could afford. I now have a large hoard. My wife says we have too
> much; but I don't think you can ever have too much.
>
> My aunt was a stockbroker, so I also bought stock even though I know
> the stock market is rigged. I don't want to tell you how much I have
> lost in the stock market but gold and silver coins have made my retirement
> secure.
>
> I think the author of the above article makes many valid points.
> He obviously is very well informed. I printed out the article and
> have put it in my file for future reference. There is no question
> in my mind that gold and silver will go up and down in price, but
> I will continue to buy and hold. I have never sold any gold and silver
> coins. Maybe I should have sold because it has tanked on several
> occasions. You would be surprised to know how it has grown in value
> over the years. You may not get rich quick, but there is nothing
> wrong with getting rich slowly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166359-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-714680 714680
I continue to believe that this rally will persist until at least the New Year, not because it has any substance, but what else do the banks have to do with all the free money being thrown at them from the Geitner/Bernanke tag team. It's not like anyone is borrowing right now, the consumer is unemployed, underwater and plain flat broke and Big Business? Why would they borrow a cent when they can just do a public offering instead. Like the Dire Straits said, "get the money for nothing and get the chicks for free".

So the banks will continue to push all that free money to their trading desks and bid the market up. If you were given a blank check and some loaded dice, wouldn't you gamble too? Too bad all this nonsense is doing nothing to help the underlying economy and it will all have us all in deeper dire straits sooner or later. As the Chinese curse goes, "May you live in interesting times". They are certainly interesting.

Good Luck all]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 06:30:10 -0400
I continue to believe that this rally will persist until at least the New Year, not because it has any substance, but what else do the banks have to do with all the free money being thrown at them from the Geitner/Bernanke tag team. It's not like anyone is borrowing right now, the consumer is unemployed, underwater and plain flat broke and Big Business? Why would they borrow a cent when they can just do a public offering instead. Like the Dire Straits said, "get the money for nothing and get the chicks for free".

So the banks will continue to push all that free money to their trading desks and bid the market up. If you were given a blank check and some loaded dice, wouldn't you gamble too? Too bad all this nonsense is doing nothing to help the underlying economy and it will all have us all in deeper dire straits sooner or later. As the Chinese curse goes, "May you live in interesting times". They are certainly interesting.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166073-u-s-economy-partying-like-it-s-still-2005-and-how-to-turn-things-around?source=feed#comment-714129 714129
Unfortunately your voice and many of the others on Seeking Alpha are very much in the minority. The majority isn't interested in paying the piper... ever. They will keep looking for an easy exit until the next time, until there are no easy exits and a depression like no other arrives.

How many times can we repeat the bubble-jobless recovery-bubble cycle, I don't know but I have a feeling this is the last time since the Lender of Last Resort is becoming over-leveraged.

The fact is just like your teenagers that have to make their own mistakes, the US and the world must make a big one right now. The "I want it now" lifestyle that has infected the global psyche simply will not die until there is no way it can be resurrected.

Thus it will be long and painful. No one will listen to your well versed arguments and logical rational thinking, because its hard and they are used to easy. They don't want to hear and they won't.
Only after the fact will they face up to the fact of "What were you thinking" and realize "I don't know".

The only thing is, we are not there yet, no one is saying that yet. They are all trying to figure out how to get back to the old normal, how to have the V-shaped recovery, how we can put this bump in the road behind us. Except its not a bump in the road, its just the bump in front of the crater ahead and the music is going full blast so no one in the majority will hear the warnings until its too late.

Good Luck all]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:17:02 -0400
Unfortunately your voice and many of the others on Seeking Alpha are very much in the minority. The majority isn't interested in paying the piper... ever. They will keep looking for an easy exit until the next time, until there are no easy exits and a depression like no other arrives.

How many times can we repeat the bubble-jobless recovery-bubble cycle, I don't know but I have a feeling this is the last time since the Lender of Last Resort is becoming over-leveraged.

The fact is just like your teenagers that have to make their own mistakes, the US and the world must make a big one right now. The "I want it now" lifestyle that has infected the global psyche simply will not die until there is no way it can be resurrected.

Thus it will be long and painful. No one will listen to your well versed arguments and logical rational thinking, because its hard and they are used to easy. They don't want to hear and they won't.
Only after the fact will they face up to the fact of "What were you thinking" and realize "I don't know".

The only thing is, we are not there yet, no one is saying that yet. They are all trying to figure out how to get back to the old normal, how to have the V-shaped recovery, how we can put this bump in the road behind us. Except its not a bump in the road, its just the bump in front of the crater ahead and the music is going full blast so no one in the majority will hear the warnings until its too late.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166117-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-713581 713581
Medium term, I expect the mostly sideways to slightly higher trend to continue as easy money flowing to the trading desks means that all dips are being bought. If we get a dip, I'll be a cautious buyer, looking to trade the range.

Long term, fundamentals are simply awful. The list of shoes waiting to drop are endless and the political will for bailouts and stimulus packages will be missing when the 2010 election season begins. Look for "fiscal responsibility" to be one of the leading issues and effectively tying the hands of the Keynesian crew. But again I don't see this trend really starting until spring of 2010. Once they take away the punch bowl its going to get very nasty, although it might take a slow downward slide for a period before a catalyst even triggers another steep drop (similar to 2008).

Of course these time frames are subject to compress or expand based on the policy coming out of the central banks, but I remain very confident in the mid and long term results, regardless of the exact timing.

Good Luck all]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 05:19:45 -0400
Medium term, I expect the mostly sideways to slightly higher trend to continue as easy money flowing to the trading desks means that all dips are being bought. If we get a dip, I'll be a cautious buyer, looking to trade the range.

Long term, fundamentals are simply awful. The list of shoes waiting to drop are endless and the political will for bailouts and stimulus packages will be missing when the 2010 election season begins. Look for "fiscal responsibility" to be one of the leading issues and effectively tying the hands of the Keynesian crew. But again I don't see this trend really starting until spring of 2010. Once they take away the punch bowl its going to get very nasty, although it might take a slow downward slide for a period before a catalyst even triggers another steep drop (similar to 2008).

Of course these time frames are subject to compress or expand based on the policy coming out of the central banks, but I remain very confident in the mid and long term results, regardless of the exact timing.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165667-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-709951 709951
It's pretty clear that this an easy money rally with trading desks leading the charge. Unfortunately for even the most astute retail investors, the first major signals that the easy money is coming off the table likely won't be as visible as an interest rate increase, likely it will be something more subtle like the Fed cutting back on some its under the cover lending programs. And of course it will be lost in the endless spin jobs being spewed out by the MSM.

This is why this rally is so dangerous. It's too profitable to be sitting on the sidelines but at some point someone is going to inform all the trading desks that one of these "buying opportunity" dips is really a feint and then back half of the "W" will begin. Trade carefully and make sure you have a reserve of cash or have some downside protection.

Good Luck all. ]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 06:30:09 -0400
It's pretty clear that this an easy money rally with trading desks leading the charge. Unfortunately for even the most astute retail investors, the first major signals that the easy money is coming off the table likely won't be as visible as an interest rate increase, likely it will be something more subtle like the Fed cutting back on some its under the cover lending programs. And of course it will be lost in the endless spin jobs being spewed out by the MSM.

This is why this rally is so dangerous. It's too profitable to be sitting on the sidelines but at some point someone is going to inform all the trading desks that one of these "buying opportunity" dips is really a feint and then back half of the "W" will begin. Trade carefully and make sure you have a reserve of cash or have some downside protection.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164933-etfs-take-the-lead-will-mutual-funds-fade-away?source=feed#comment-704659 704659
Good Luck all. ]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:47:56 -0400
Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164452-recession-is-over-depression-has-just-begun?source=feed#comment-702810 702810
The fact is, when faced with a serious debt problem (denominated in its own currency), there are only a few ways for a government with the issue, namely:

1. Pay down the debt (via spending cuts / tax increases)
2. Monetize the debt (print your way out)
3. Default (you didn't really think we'd pay you back, did you?)
4. Positive Balance of Trade (Want to buy a CDO?)
5. Economic Growth (but only real growth - what is that?)

Obviously 5 is the most palatable option, with 4 being a reasonably good alternative. The problem is most of America's growth was not in manufacturing but instead financial based. One can not reasonably expect any non-bubble growth in financials, and without major unexpected innovations one can not expect strong growth in manufacturing.

Achieving a positive balance of trade would require such a devaluation of the US dollar to make it unacceptable. Plus since this is a global depression, there is hardly any other economies eager to run a balance of trade deficit.

Which leaves the other 3 options. None of which are pretty. Printing = dollar devaluation and hyper-inflation. Spending cuts / tax increases are politically impossible currently. And Default - need I discuss the ramifications of that?

This is what makes a depression almost inevitable, whether the decision any of the three of the above, someone is going to lose a lot of wealth regardless of what is decided, and undoubtedly that will create a fearful, hunker down mentality that is truly deflationary.

Good Luck all]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 15:33:28 -0400
The fact is, when faced with a serious debt problem (denominated in its own currency), there are only a few ways for a government with the issue, namely:

1. Pay down the debt (via spending cuts / tax increases)
2. Monetize the debt (print your way out)
3. Default (you didn't really think we'd pay you back, did you?)
4. Positive Balance of Trade (Want to buy a CDO?)
5. Economic Growth (but only real growth - what is that?)

Obviously 5 is the most palatable option, with 4 being a reasonably good alternative. The problem is most of America's growth was not in manufacturing but instead financial based. One can not reasonably expect any non-bubble growth in financials, and without major unexpected innovations one can not expect strong growth in manufacturing.

Achieving a positive balance of trade would require such a devaluation of the US dollar to make it unacceptable. Plus since this is a global depression, there is hardly any other economies eager to run a balance of trade deficit.

Which leaves the other 3 options. None of which are pretty. Printing = dollar devaluation and hyper-inflation. Spending cuts / tax increases are politically impossible currently. And Default - need I discuss the ramifications of that?

This is what makes a depression almost inevitable, whether the decision any of the three of the above, someone is going to lose a lot of wealth regardless of what is decided, and undoubtedly that will create a fearful, hunker down mentality that is truly deflationary.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164636-yet-another-finger-of-instability?source=feed#comment-702645 702645
The answer is as simple as looking in a mirror, when all the grains of sands are fundamentally flawed, driven by the opposite emotions of greed and fear, how can a solid base be created. Even if one were to devise the perfect system, or perfect plan, if the medium of execution is flawed the type of stability you are trying to envision is simply fantasy.


On Oct 04 12:51 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

> John - - -
>
> Great discussion of instability. I know you like to think outside
> the box so let me wander outside the sandbox.
>
> Why do all the grains of sand have to be added to one point, piling
> up until a steep, unstable pyramid is formed, leading to collapse?
> Why can't the sand be added across a broad area, with the base ever
> expanding. This could lead to a structure that never achieves steep
> walls.
>
> This is analogous to comparing the financial system structure we
> have achieved to a broad, and diverse structure that never sees the
> fatal fingers of instability except in a very local way. Interconnectedness
> may be very productive, but interdependence can produce collapse
> (domino effects). Maybe we need to find a way to divorce the two.
>
>
> The fatal flaw of primal capitalism is that it allows the concentration
> of economic power until it eventually becomes so concentrated that
> there is nothing left to support it.
>
> The fatal flaw of communism is that it has the lethal concentration
> of economic power at conception.
>
> Unregulated capitalism matures into the fatal condition; communism
> is born with it.
>
> The ideal economic system has yet to be devised. Perhaps it never
> will be. How can you prevent unsustainable concentration of economic
> power without removing incentives for the masses to strive for economic
> advantage?]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 13:15:19 -0400
The answer is as simple as looking in a mirror, when all the grains of sands are fundamentally flawed, driven by the opposite emotions of greed and fear, how can a solid base be created. Even if one were to devise the perfect system, or perfect plan, if the medium of execution is flawed the type of stability you are trying to envision is simply fantasy.


On Oct 04 12:51 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

> John - - -
>
> Great discussion of instability. I know you like to think outside
> the box so let me wander outside the sandbox.
>
> Why do all the grains of sand have to be added to one point, piling
> up until a steep, unstable pyramid is formed, leading to collapse?
> Why can't the sand be added across a broad area, with the base ever
> expanding. This could lead to a structure that never achieves steep
> walls.
>
> This is analogous to comparing the financial system structure we
> have achieved to a broad, and diverse structure that never sees the
> fatal fingers of instability except in a very local way. Interconnectedness
> may be very productive, but interdependence can produce collapse
> (domino effects). Maybe we need to find a way to divorce the two.
>
>
> The fatal flaw of primal capitalism is that it allows the concentration
> of economic power until it eventually becomes so concentrated that
> there is nothing left to support it.
>
> The fatal flaw of communism is that it has the lethal concentration
> of economic power at conception.
>
> Unregulated capitalism matures into the fatal condition; communism
> is born with it.
>
> The ideal economic system has yet to be devised. Perhaps it never
> will be. How can you prevent unsustainable concentration of economic
> power without removing incentives for the masses to strive for economic
> advantage?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164636-yet-another-finger-of-instability?source=feed#comment-702635 702635
A fine view of the mess we are truly in. I think most people on here would agree that sooner or later we will have to pay the piper for years and years of easy money stability. The question is not "if" but "when". Let's face it, we could have another "easy money" party left in us, in fact we're right in the middle of it.

But the problem is each subsequent party has a larger hangover and requires more liquid(ity) to get the party going again. It's hard to know what to do in this environment since we're either going to have one heck of a farewell bash or this thing might be the time that there isn't enough liquid left to kill the hangover, either way I agree with you, it's an exciting and dangerous time to be an investor.

The pendulum seems to swing daily between a deflationary depression and an hyper-inflationary stagnating banana republic. It is difficult to position oneself since they are polar opposites.

Do not be surprised that people are reading your writings, when in a time of instability it is important to listen to as many learned opinions as possible, because no one can know for sure what the future will bring, but we can prepare for whatever may arrive.

Good Luck all.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 13:08:30 -0400
A fine view of the mess we are truly in. I think most people on here would agree that sooner or later we will have to pay the piper for years and years of easy money stability. The question is not "if" but "when". Let's face it, we could have another "easy money" party left in us, in fact we're right in the middle of it.

But the problem is each subsequent party has a larger hangover and requires more liquid(ity) to get the party going again. It's hard to know what to do in this environment since we're either going to have one heck of a farewell bash or this thing might be the time that there isn't enough liquid left to kill the hangover, either way I agree with you, it's an exciting and dangerous time to be an investor.

The pendulum seems to swing daily between a deflationary depression and an hyper-inflationary stagnating banana republic. It is difficult to position oneself since they are polar opposites.

Do not be surprised that people are reading your writings, when in a time of instability it is important to listen to as many learned opinions as possible, because no one can know for sure what the future will bring, but we can prepare for whatever may arrive.

Good Luck all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164466-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-699761 699761
Personally while I am already mostly in cash, I think its time to close up most of the long positions and get real cautious. If next week continues to bleed red it would probably be safe to say that recent high was the bear rally top and we may see a sizable correction which of course means it will be time to start looking for good short positions.

Good Luck all. ]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 09:21:36 -0400
Personally while I am already mostly in cash, I think its time to close up most of the long positions and get real cautious. If next week continues to bleed red it would probably be safe to say that recent high was the bear rally top and we may see a sizable correction which of course means it will be time to start looking for good short positions.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162434-joining-the-chorus-against-the-etf-explosion?source=feed#comment-684684 684684
Presumably, they could previously buy Mr. Dent's (or similarly created) mutual funds albeit through an intermediary, so what if they can now buy it ETF form. We had literally thousands of crummy mutual funds for years (which often had early redemption fees) and no one complained about that, how is having more ETFs as an alternative (a more liquid one I might add) a bad thing? No question, the example ETF provided above sounds like a poor investment, but to that I say caveat emptor.

Good Luck all. ]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 07:10:20 -0400
Presumably, they could previously buy Mr. Dent's (or similarly created) mutual funds albeit through an intermediary, so what if they can now buy it ETF form. We had literally thousands of crummy mutual funds for years (which often had early redemption fees) and no one complained about that, how is having more ETFs as an alternative (a more liquid one I might add) a bad thing? No question, the example ETF provided above sounds like a poor investment, but to that I say caveat emptor.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162122-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-682361 682361
In 1930 the DOW rebounded 48% off the lows without the magic printing press running at top speed (and buying treasuries in a loose attempt to convince us that the Fed is not monetizing the debt). But this time, the Depression-learned Bernanke has it all figured out, he's determined not to make the same mistakes they made back then, he just wants to make bigger ones (albeit in the opposite way).

Our savior Helicopter Ben, is going to build the biggest bubble ever and do it with the Lender of Last Resort (so there will be no one left to bail us out when it bursts). Sure we have retraced 60%, but if this turns out to be the biggest bubble of the them all, it could go much higher. And of course, if he succeeds, the following crash will make the great Depression look like a mild hangover.

But as I said in previous posts, you would be silly not to profit on the way up and the way down, as well as being prepared for the moment that the music stops (QE stops) because it won't take long after that to get new Everyday Low Prices.

Good Luck all.]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:52:12 -0400
In 1930 the DOW rebounded 48% off the lows without the magic printing press running at top speed (and buying treasuries in a loose attempt to convince us that the Fed is not monetizing the debt). But this time, the Depression-learned Bernanke has it all figured out, he's determined not to make the same mistakes they made back then, he just wants to make bigger ones (albeit in the opposite way).

Our savior Helicopter Ben, is going to build the biggest bubble ever and do it with the Lender of Last Resort (so there will be no one left to bail us out when it bursts). Sure we have retraced 60%, but if this turns out to be the biggest bubble of the them all, it could go much higher. And of course, if he succeeds, the following crash will make the great Depression look like a mild hangover.

But as I said in previous posts, you would be silly not to profit on the way up and the way down, as well as being prepared for the moment that the music stops (QE stops) because it won't take long after that to get new Everyday Low Prices.

Good Luck all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161893-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-681138 681138
Until the government stops or at least slows quantitative easing, we are staring another bubble in the face and if you want to wait it and the subsequent crash on the sidelines, that's fine, part of me applauds you but the trader side of me sees an opportunity here and I can not ignore that.

Good Luck all


On Sep 17 01:10 PM fjd10595 wrote:

> IT is the wrong time to deploy money, the fundamentals are not there
> and if that is not enough, we zoomed 50% in a few months. This,
> after the greatest financial stress since the depression? If you
> think it has reversed in one year, you are wrong.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:30:41 -0400
Until the government stops or at least slows quantitative easing, we are staring another bubble in the face and if you want to wait it and the subsequent crash on the sidelines, that's fine, part of me applauds you but the trader side of me sees an opportunity here and I can not ignore that.

Good Luck all


On Sep 17 01:10 PM fjd10595 wrote:

> IT is the wrong time to deploy money, the fundamentals are not there
> and if that is not enough, we zoomed 50% in a few months. This,
> after the greatest financial stress since the depression? If you
> think it has reversed in one year, you are wrong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161893-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-680298 680298 It certainly does feel like we are walking a high wire here with a barbell as our balancing pole and no net below.

Anyways, the recommendation was you weigh your portfolio equally for each outcome so thus I have still a lot of cash (for deflation) but have put the rest into assets that will win in a stagflation environment - precious metals, commodities, equities tied to those markets as well as beaten down equities.

Yesterday I timed it well making my moves at 10 o'clock dip, dropping my UUP hedge (betting against this market is foolhardy so I removed my hedge) and buying back some older positions that remarkably had dropped in the past 3 weeks. Obviously trailing stops are critical.

As I mentioned above I fear this market more than I believe it in, but I fear a parabolic ramp here. I suspect this market will go parabolic before it crashes and I feel I have to position myself to take advantage of that possibility using a portion of my portfolio.

Dave you nailed it, we are in Hotel California, where do I sign up for an ARM to buy a McMansion before they take away my leg? All hail Bernanke and his broken dreams of stagflation for everyone.

Good Luck all. ]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 03:26:37 -0400 It certainly does feel like we are walking a high wire here with a barbell as our balancing pole and no net below.

Anyways, the recommendation was you weigh your portfolio equally for each outcome so thus I have still a lot of cash (for deflation) but have put the rest into assets that will win in a stagflation environment - precious metals, commodities, equities tied to those markets as well as beaten down equities.

Yesterday I timed it well making my moves at 10 o'clock dip, dropping my UUP hedge (betting against this market is foolhardy so I removed my hedge) and buying back some older positions that remarkably had dropped in the past 3 weeks. Obviously trailing stops are critical.

As I mentioned above I fear this market more than I believe it in, but I fear a parabolic ramp here. I suspect this market will go parabolic before it crashes and I feel I have to position myself to take advantage of that possibility using a portion of my portfolio.

Dave you nailed it, we are in Hotel California, where do I sign up for an ARM to buy a McMansion before they take away my leg? All hail Bernanke and his broken dreams of stagflation for everyone.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161687-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-678640 678640
Personally, I took profits in late August fearing a September crash that has yet to materialize and have been largely on the sidelines since then (except gold / silver and a small position in UUP as a hedge).

The hypothesis that September would result in increased trading failed to materialize (so far) and leaves me with the question - What now?

Sadly, against my true feelings, I feel one must be positioned neutrally in this market, so I will gingerly start picking up my long positions again, and will probably drop my UUP hedge.

Fundamentally, I remain convinced that this is just a bear market rally and sooner or later we will return to the mean, but in the near near term I see little catalyst to prevent the HFTs and trading desks flush with near free government cash from continuing to bid the market up. Clearly this has nothing to do with fundamentals which remain awful but banks are not lending but rather are "investing". A rising tide (of liquidity) lifts all boats and one must respect that (even if one knows the tide will eventually go out again).

Further to this effect, the fact that the Fed did not even mention the dollar (save for some passing remark from SF Fed Jen Yellen) tips their hand. It leads me to believe that they will do everything in their power to prevent deflation and will meekly accept stagflation instead. I do not have any confidence that they will succeed long term, but short term to bet against them while they are still trying is pure folly, so I will return to a more neutral stance and pick up some longs that I feel have a relatively good risk/reward.

Good Luck all. ]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:12:41 -0400
Personally, I took profits in late August fearing a September crash that has yet to materialize and have been largely on the sidelines since then (except gold / silver and a small position in UUP as a hedge).

The hypothesis that September would result in increased trading failed to materialize (so far) and leaves me with the question - What now?

Sadly, against my true feelings, I feel one must be positioned neutrally in this market, so I will gingerly start picking up my long positions again, and will probably drop my UUP hedge.

Fundamentally, I remain convinced that this is just a bear market rally and sooner or later we will return to the mean, but in the near near term I see little catalyst to prevent the HFTs and trading desks flush with near free government cash from continuing to bid the market up. Clearly this has nothing to do with fundamentals which remain awful but banks are not lending but rather are "investing". A rising tide (of liquidity) lifts all boats and one must respect that (even if one knows the tide will eventually go out again).

Further to this effect, the fact that the Fed did not even mention the dollar (save for some passing remark from SF Fed Jen Yellen) tips their hand. It leads me to believe that they will do everything in their power to prevent deflation and will meekly accept stagflation instead. I do not have any confidence that they will succeed long term, but short term to bet against them while they are still trying is pure folly, so I will return to a more neutral stance and pick up some longs that I feel have a relatively good risk/reward.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161617-equities-shrug-off-protectionist-fears?source=feed#comment-677709 677709
The only concern about the increase in retail sales is that PPI grew 1.7 percent (against an expectation of 0.8%), so how much of those sales increases were just the cost of inflation creeping in. I guess we can all be extremely happy that we are fighting off deflation only to find ourselves on stagflation's doorstep.

Good Luck all. ]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:40:01 -0400
The only concern about the increase in retail sales is that PPI grew 1.7 percent (against an expectation of 0.8%), so how much of those sales increases were just the cost of inflation creeping in. I guess we can all be extremely happy that we are fighting off deflation only to find ourselves on stagflation's doorstep.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161471-a-lot-of-caveats-to-this-recovery-scenario?source=feed#comment-677451 677451
Dollar Up? - check
Gold Up? - check
Equity Markets Up? - check
Oil Up? - check

Nothing wrong here, Just step right up, Everyone's a winner, I just knew I was at the circus.

Good Luck all]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:21:55 -0400
Dollar Up? - check
Gold Up? - check
Equity Markets Up? - check
Oil Up? - check

Nothing wrong here, Just step right up, Everyone's a winner, I just knew I was at the circus.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161368-jamie-horvat-fears-extended-period-of-stagflation?source=feed#comment-675646 675646
Already the average Joe six pack is fed up with bailouts, subsidies and the ever increasing threat of higher taxation, and the government is facing re-election in 2010. Will they truly be able to keep the lavish spending going when they have already declared the recession over? (Whoops!)

Basically the Fed / Government is stuck between a rock and a hard place, straddling the thin line between stagflation and deflation, with only its hot air optimism to keep it afloat. Neither outcome will be pretty for the average person, but from an investment standpoint it presents two extremes which both need to be watched for.

Personally I think deflation will win, I don't believe the current administration has the Volckeresque strength to not cave in to popularism. But, again, I am ready to switch sides at a moments notice if inflation ever gets going.

Good Luck all. ]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:10:48 -0400
Already the average Joe six pack is fed up with bailouts, subsidies and the ever increasing threat of higher taxation, and the government is facing re-election in 2010. Will they truly be able to keep the lavish spending going when they have already declared the recession over? (Whoops!)

Basically the Fed / Government is stuck between a rock and a hard place, straddling the thin line between stagflation and deflation, with only its hot air optimism to keep it afloat. Neither outcome will be pretty for the average person, but from an investment standpoint it presents two extremes which both need to be watched for.

Personally I think deflation will win, I don't believe the current administration has the Volckeresque strength to not cave in to popularism. But, again, I am ready to switch sides at a moments notice if inflation ever gets going.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161141-lululemon-high-quality-debt-free-fast-growing-odlum-brown?source=feed#comment-674225 674225
I can only hope that a W-shaped recovery will provide a second opportunity to buy at a low level. I think right now I believe is fairly valued or slightly overvalued, and I will wait (read: hope) for a better entry point.

Good Luck all]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 09:01:32 -0400
I can only hope that a W-shaped recovery will provide a second opportunity to buy at a low level. I think right now I believe is fairly valued or slightly overvalued, and I will wait (read: hope) for a better entry point.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161098-unwinding-chronic-imbalances-and-exit-strategies?source=feed#comment-673194 673194
The fed declared the recession over (and way too early in my opinion) and now the pressure is going to start mounting to rein in spending, which will ultimately cause all the stimulus fertilized green shoots to quickly brown because the underlying soil is barren (i.e. the debt ridden, unemployed, credit strapped, home equity destroyed consumer).

Without the artificial government buying and the banks being flushed with risk free taxpayer cash and investing it (gambling) rather than lending it, this rally is dead. Corporate investment, exports and the flat on his back consumer are no where near ready to pick up the slack. The consumer isn't buying anything discretionary without massive government subsidies and once those dry up? Well lets just see how good September sales are for the automakers.

Trashing the dollar won't help either as inflated commodity prices will hurt the already tender corporate bottom lines. If you were a CEO would you start investing capital in this environment (with a still Missing in Action consumer)? The only one spending is are the global governments and once they stop? All bets are off.

Good Luck all. ]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 06:01:38 -0400
The fed declared the recession over (and way too early in my opinion) and now the pressure is going to start mounting to rein in spending, which will ultimately cause all the stimulus fertilized green shoots to quickly brown because the underlying soil is barren (i.e. the debt ridden, unemployed, credit strapped, home equity destroyed consumer).

Without the artificial government buying and the banks being flushed with risk free taxpayer cash and investing it (gambling) rather than lending it, this rally is dead. Corporate investment, exports and the flat on his back consumer are no where near ready to pick up the slack. The consumer isn't buying anything discretionary without massive government subsidies and once those dry up? Well lets just see how good September sales are for the automakers.

Trashing the dollar won't help either as inflated commodity prices will hurt the already tender corporate bottom lines. If you were a CEO would you start investing capital in this environment (with a still Missing in Action consumer)? The only one spending is are the global governments and once they stop? All bets are off.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161098-unwinding-chronic-imbalances-and-exit-strategies?source=feed#comment-673193 673193
The fed declared the recession over (and way too early in my opinion) and now the pressure is going to start mounting to rein in spending, which will ultimately cause all the stimulus fertilized green shoots to quickly brown because the underlying soil is barren (i.e. the debt ridden, unemployed, credit strapped, home equity destroyed consumer).

Without the artificial government buying and the banks being flushed with risk free taxpayer cash and investing it (gambling) rather than lending it, this rally is dead. Corporate investment, exports and the flat on his back consumer are no where near ready to pick up the slack. The consumer isn't buying anything discretionary without massive government subsidies and once those dry up? Well lets just see how good September sales are for the automakers.

Trashing the dollar won't help either as inflated commodity prices will hurt the already tender corporate bottom lines. If you were a CEO would you start investing capital in this environment (with a still Missing in Action consumer)? The only one spending is are the global governments and once they stop? All bets are off.

Good Luck all. ]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 06:01:32 -0400
The fed declared the recession over (and way too early in my opinion) and now the pressure is going to start mounting to rein in spending, which will ultimately cause all the stimulus fertilized green shoots to quickly brown because the underlying soil is barren (i.e. the debt ridden, unemployed, credit strapped, home equity destroyed consumer).

Without the artificial government buying and the banks being flushed with risk free taxpayer cash and investing it (gambling) rather than lending it, this rally is dead. Corporate investment, exports and the flat on his back consumer are no where near ready to pick up the slack. The consumer isn't buying anything discretionary without massive government subsidies and once those dry up? Well lets just see how good September sales are for the automakers.

Trashing the dollar won't help either as inflated commodity prices will hurt the already tender corporate bottom lines. If you were a CEO would you start investing capital in this environment (with a still Missing in Action consumer)? The only one spending is are the global governments and once they stop? All bets are off.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161089-jaguar-mining-s-unexplored-territory?source=feed#comment-672642 672642
Good Luck all]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:56:45 -0400
Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160517-is-buffett-backing-away-from-stocks?source=feed#comment-668657 668657
This market reminds me of another casino related strategy for playing Poker, which answers the question "When is the best time to get up from the poker table?" The answer - "The best time to get up is when all the fish have run out of money." For context, the fish are inexperienced players which are likely to lose all their money.

This market is like one big poker table, and the fish is the US (and G-20) governments with their stimulus. As soon as that punch bowl gets taken away, the sharks (GS et al.) are going to take their profits off the table.

Honestly, does anyone truly believe that once the stimulus ends that the economy is not going back into the tank? I mean have we really resolved any of the problems that caused the crisis in the first place?

Good Luck all]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:29:56 -0400
This market reminds me of another casino related strategy for playing Poker, which answers the question "When is the best time to get up from the poker table?" The answer - "The best time to get up is when all the fish have run out of money." For context, the fish are inexperienced players which are likely to lose all their money.

This market is like one big poker table, and the fish is the US (and G-20) governments with their stimulus. As soon as that punch bowl gets taken away, the sharks (GS et al.) are going to take their profits off the table.

Honestly, does anyone truly believe that once the stimulus ends that the economy is not going back into the tank? I mean have we really resolved any of the problems that caused the crisis in the first place?

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160515-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-668263 668263
I am starting to reconsider my UUP position, but in the light of the fact that my Gold/Silver is offsetting it I will hold for now. I look at Dave's charts and see 76 on the USD as a line in the sand. That breaks and we are off to the inflation/devaluation races.

Good Luck all. ]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 09:31:28 -0400
I am starting to reconsider my UUP position, but in the light of the fact that my Gold/Silver is offsetting it I will hold for now. I look at Dave's charts and see 76 on the USD as a line in the sand. That breaks and we are off to the inflation/devaluation races.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159968-stimulus-can-t-save-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-661406 661406
Already China has toyed with removing stimulus (via credit tightening) and the response? A 25% drop in Shanghai over a two week period. The US consumer is punch drunk and on the mat. Any new discussion of additional stimulus will be political suicide, so the question is how long can the current stimulus prop up the market? I don't have the answer but I want to be on the sidelines when the medicine starts wearing off, because it is not going to be pretty.

I just keep looking at the risk / reward and saying is it worth chasing that 10-15% upside when the downside is at least as much or much more? Until then I remain in cash / gold / silver and some UUP just in case we get a flight to safety. Of course I will continue to trade equities judiciously based on individual risk/reward merits too, but in small amounts.

Good Luck all]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 06:36:36 -0400
Already China has toyed with removing stimulus (via credit tightening) and the response? A 25% drop in Shanghai over a two week period. The US consumer is punch drunk and on the mat. Any new discussion of additional stimulus will be political suicide, so the question is how long can the current stimulus prop up the market? I don't have the answer but I want to be on the sidelines when the medicine starts wearing off, because it is not going to be pretty.

I just keep looking at the risk / reward and saying is it worth chasing that 10-15% upside when the downside is at least as much or much more? Until then I remain in cash / gold / silver and some UUP just in case we get a flight to safety. Of course I will continue to trade equities judiciously based on individual risk/reward merits too, but in small amounts.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159716-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-659760 659760
Personally I am still fearful (while others are greedy) and even if the market surpasses its most recent top I have no faith in it and continue to sit safely on the sidelines mostly in cash, a few longs, some Gold and Silver and some UUP, waiting to see if reality ever decides to set in.

I can say its difficult to remain disciplined with the casino mentality of the market today. I briefly flirted (in my mind) with jumping into the dash for trash. Thankfully I did not and saved myself some money, a lesson that didn't cost me anything and restored my discipline to be patient. Sooner or later the S&P P/Es will return to the mean (and somehow I doubt that will occur by the "E" actually increasing to reduce the high multiple). Until then I wait.

Good Luck all. ]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 03:55:05 -0400
Personally I am still fearful (while others are greedy) and even if the market surpasses its most recent top I have no faith in it and continue to sit safely on the sidelines mostly in cash, a few longs, some Gold and Silver and some UUP, waiting to see if reality ever decides to set in.

I can say its difficult to remain disciplined with the casino mentality of the market today. I briefly flirted (in my mind) with jumping into the dash for trash. Thankfully I did not and saved myself some money, a lesson that didn't cost me anything and restored my discipline to be patient. Sooner or later the S&P P/Es will return to the mean (and somehow I doubt that will occur by the "E" actually increasing to reduce the high multiple). Until then I wait.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159488-back-to-school-using-last-year-s-pencils?source=feed#comment-657815 657815
Fortunately for the few retail investors active enough to spend time enlightening ourselves of the truth, we should also be able to profit (or at least save ourselves) from this massive ponzi scheme run amok by taking advantage of the run up and also by being the first out the door when the music stops, the party ends, and the punch bowl is taken away.

Thanks Joseph, for more insightful pieces of a most disturbing puzzle.

Good Luck all. ]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 05:24:28 -0400
Fortunately for the few retail investors active enough to spend time enlightening ourselves of the truth, we should also be able to profit (or at least save ourselves) from this massive ponzi scheme run amok by taking advantage of the run up and also by being the first out the door when the music stops, the party ends, and the punch bowl is taken away.

Thanks Joseph, for more insightful pieces of a most disturbing puzzle.

Good Luck all. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159475-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-657786 657786
Personally I believe a pullback is inevitable, already China is turning down the stimulus spigot (in the form of credit tightening) and its only a matter of time before the US is forced to dial back its own largesse. Anyone that believes that the stimulus has been successful in jump starting the economy is likely blinding themselves to the fact that nothing really has been repaired, and once the punch bowl is removed the economic engine will likely sputter and died.

But the question is when. You mentioned that we are seeing a reversal in behavior as good news is being sold off. We are seeing another battle between the momentum bulls and the fundamentalist bears. The bulls could win another battle here, but the war will inevitably favor the bears in my opinion, since all this stimulus has accomplish is a redistribution of wealth, not any ongoing growth.

Personally I am being very careful in any equity longs I have remaining, with moderate positions in UUP and in CEF (Gold / Silver), which represent good risk/reward to me. The rest remains in cash in the expectation of a return to deflation or low inflation for the next 12-18 months. I'm also considering moving a bit into TLT but its risk / reward is less compelling to me than the other two.

Good Luck all]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 04:15:20 -0400
Personally I believe a pullback is inevitable, already China is turning down the stimulus spigot (in the form of credit tightening) and its only a matter of time before the US is forced to dial back its own largesse. Anyone that believes that the stimulus has been successful in jump starting the economy is likely blinding themselves to the fact that nothing really has been repaired, and once the punch bowl is removed the economic engine will likely sputter and died.

But the question is when. You mentioned that we are seeing a reversal in behavior as good news is being sold off. We are seeing another battle between the momentum bulls and the fundamentalist bears. The bulls could win another battle here, but the war will inevitably favor the bears in my opinion, since all this stimulus has accomplish is a redistribution of wealth, not any ongoing growth.

Personally I am being very careful in any equity longs I have remaining, with moderate positions in UUP and in CEF (Gold / Silver), which represent good risk/reward to me. The rest remains in cash in the expectation of a return to deflation or low inflation for the next 12-18 months. I'm also considering moving a bit into TLT but its risk / reward is less compelling to me than the other two.

Good Luck all]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/330791-naufal-sanaullah/24238-game-theory-trading?source=feed#comment-643201 643201 Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:11:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/330791-naufal-sanaullah/24238-game-theory-trading?source=feed#comment-643188 643188
Sit back, have a beer, move all your money to the sidelines slowly a little at a time (or put in trailing stops if you prefer). when the big down day comes, don't berate yourself for missing it. Feel good that you didn't lose 30% as the market went to insane heights. The fall will continue for many a day, no need to time it to this level.

Good Luck all]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:05:48 -0400
Sit back, have a beer, move all your money to the sidelines slowly a little at a time (or put in trailing stops if you prefer). when the big down day comes, don't berate yourself for missing it. Feel good that you didn't lose 30% as the market went to insane heights. The fall will continue for many a day, no need to time it to this level.

Good Luck all]]>