SeeTheLight

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Trust me, I'm painfully aware that the fundamentals are not there. They are simply awful, but they always are in a bubble (I mean did you think buying a house back in early 2007 was a good idea fundamentally?) This most definitely has all the appearances of a bubble. I truly believe that the crash after this bubble will be even worse than the one we just experienced but at the same time I think it is silly to not take advantage of the bubble. I am being very cautious, putting in stops that I am comfortable with and only investing a portion of my portfolio.

Until the government stops or at least slows quantitative easing, we are staring another bubble in the face and if you want to wait it and the subsequent crash on the sidelines, that's fine, part of me applauds you but the trader side of me sees an opportunity here and I can not ignore that.

Good Luck all


On Sep 17 01:10 PM fjd10595 wrote:

> IT is the wrong time to deploy money, the fundamentals are not there
> and if that is not enough, we zoomed 50% in a few months. This,
> after the greatest financial stress since the depression? If you
> think it has reversed in one year, you are wrong.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Against my true feelings, I put some weight back into equities not because I believe in this market but I fear it. I read a comment somewhere we are in a barbell market, where on one side we have many people playing the deflation trade and on the other many are playing the hyperinflation (but really stagflation) trade.
It certainly does feel like we are walking a high wire here with a barbell as our balancing pole and no net below.

Anyways, the recommendation was you weigh your portfolio equally for each outcome so thus I have still a lot of cash (for deflation) but have put the rest into assets that will win in a stagflation environment - precious metals, commodities, equities tied to those markets as well as beaten down equities.

Yesterday I timed it well making my moves at 10 o'clock dip, dropping my UUP hedge (betting against this market is foolhardy so I removed my hedge) and buying back some older positions that remarkably had dropped in the past 3 weeks. Obviously trailing stops are critical.

As I mentioned above I fear this market more than I believe it in, but I fear a parabolic ramp here. I suspect this market will go parabolic before it crashes and I feel I have to position myself to take advantage of that possibility using a portion of my portfolio.

Dave you nailed it, we are in Hotel California, where do I sign up for an ARM to buy a McMansion before they take away my leg? All hail Bernanke and his broken dreams of stagflation for everyone.

Good Luck all.