Mojoman

Nationalizing Detroit? It's a Good Idea

Your estimate is 1 to 9 layoffs per job lost to Detroit... c'mon can't you narrow it down a little bit?

1.1 million (550,000 from Detroits car industry and 550,000 as result of those jobs going) to 4.5 million is your range. Thats HUGE. I understand its hard to get a bead on how badly this may affect unemployment in the U.S. but the upper range seems a little sensationalized. I don't think we need to stir up that kind of frenzy to get the point your are making.

Still even with the supposed bailout for GM right now ($5 billion in loans thats really for the Energy Dept for energy efficiency improvements), a merger with Chrysler (why I dunno), the creation of GMAC as a bank holding company (thus access to the $700 billion in govt credit crisis moolah) and a slow economic turn around (if that is the best case scenario) I think BEST CASE scenario Chrysler is done. If it merges, its brands will be fazed out. If it doesn't I don't see how they will survive Then GM and Ford still have a lot to do to make their businesses competitive. Thing is Toyota and Honda don't answer to the UAW unions the same way Detroit has. Their cost structure has allowed them to gain market share and be more competitive. The union, its pension, and its guarantees are a big part of why the Big 3 are no more. So maybe those job losses are going where they ought to... (ok thats a bit much- GM, Chrysler and Ford also blundered their way thru managing the companies but still if unionized car companies can't stay competitive maybe we should let the non-Detroit co's make cars...)

Best case scenario there will no longer be a Big 3 in the auto industry. It will be a Big 2- Toyota and Honda. (And if Ford and Gm can survive they will be smaller companies with smaller employment levels. No way around it)

Marvel Enterprises: The Movie's Just Started

Would you say your estimates for the Iron Man franchise or more specifically the 1st Iron Man film of $250mm are in line with Marvel's just released announcement that they are upping their Marvel Studios revenue projections for 2008 from $65-$80mm to $125-$140mm? In other words the projected revenue increase- is it in line with your $250mm profit estimate? (Marvel has been historically conservative with its revenue and earnings projections. Your method of simply taking other "equivalent" box office grossing movies then using their earnings as a reasonable estimate for Iron Man may be more accurate. Still with the way film financing and earnings remains somewhat cloudy (I don't really know how box office translates into bottom line dollars for the major studios. The timelines of incoming cash flows, upfront costs, and profit sharing with distributors never seems fixed so its hard to get an firm grasp of it. So it could be somewhat of a guesstimate. Specific to anyone film what do think the standard error of your $250mm number is? $250mm +/- what? The breakdown? $50mm is from added licensing?) How certain are you of your bottom line profit expectation from Iron Man? Are Marvels new projections simply now coming in line with yours? Or is this an earnings surprise not merely a timing surprise? (I believe many thought the new revenues for Iron Man wouldn't be booked til 2009.) Great read BTW. IMO.