Top Gun's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/272590/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/148910-what-cit-s-troubles-really-mean?source=feed#comment-588711 588711 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:12:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134979-stock-vs-bond-performance?source=feed#comment-488366 488366
Don't see any "real" drivers for stocks, like new important drugs, need for housing, computer or internet development, road expansion. Needs are met, so strong companies will thrive and those with weak finances will be bought by the strong.

Years of normalcy with good quality of life. Few get rich quick schemes, so wealth will have to be created the old fashioned way, by being earned. Sounds like a good ad slogan for an investment house!]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 07:25:25 -0400
Don't see any "real" drivers for stocks, like new important drugs, need for housing, computer or internet development, road expansion. Needs are met, so strong companies will thrive and those with weak finances will be bought by the strong.

Years of normalcy with good quality of life. Few get rich quick schemes, so wealth will have to be created the old fashioned way, by being earned. Sounds like a good ad slogan for an investment house!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134988-singing-the-american-express-blues?source=feed#comment-488358 488358
In you first paragraph you say you've never missed a payment in 25 years, yet you minimize the importance of missing one now.

Your bad, AXP doesn't need you as a customer with that attitude.]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 07:08:47 -0400
In you first paragraph you say you've never missed a payment in 25 years, yet you minimize the importance of missing one now.

Your bad, AXP doesn't need you as a customer with that attitude.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134885-is-honesty-important-to-wall-street?source=feed#comment-487869 487869
Investors are secondary in all product communications, whether pharma or cell phones. If we treat the customer appropriately, the investor will have the proper information to make rational investments.]]> Sun, 03 May 2009 17:13:06 -0400
Investors are secondary in all product communications, whether pharma or cell phones. If we treat the customer appropriately, the investor will have the proper information to make rational investments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128310-merck-layoffs-from-rumor-to-reality?source=feed#comment-444344 444344 Sun, 29 Mar 2009 15:25:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128193-fed-treasury-propose-the-dissolution-of-capitalism?source=feed#comment-442145 442145
Fortunately, as long as current technologies are used, our quality of life can remain high. It would be a shame to move backwards from the agricultural, transportation, energy, housing and medical gains we have made in the last 50 years.]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 09:10:54 -0400
Fortunately, as long as current technologies are used, our quality of life can remain high. It would be a shame to move backwards from the agricultural, transportation, energy, housing and medical gains we have made in the last 50 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124063-five-predictions-for-this-market?source=feed#comment-412366 412366
Nice post.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 08:32:10 -0500
Nice post.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123727-three-value-stocks-that-appear-ridiculously-cheap?source=feed#comment-410660 410660
Please use something else besides the future, there is too much risk. To say the company has little debt and awesome free cash flow would be a good start, as would my favorite, cost of goods. If COGS are below 50%, a company has huge leeway to trim, even by cutting salaries in the short term. If COGS are 70% or greater, the company must cut production in order to continue cash flow. That's fine as long as large plants aren't involved. ]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 07:24:20 -0500
Please use something else besides the future, there is too much risk. To say the company has little debt and awesome free cash flow would be a good start, as would my favorite, cost of goods. If COGS are below 50%, a company has huge leeway to trim, even by cutting salaries in the short term. If COGS are 70% or greater, the company must cut production in order to continue cash flow. That's fine as long as large plants aren't involved. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123562-obama-placing-the-economic-cart-before-the-horse?source=feed#comment-409468 409468
I firmly believe that the powers are trying to do this reset by devaluing assets, creating stimulus and and propping up the bank asset base. It will work, maybe, but where will inflation be? This is totally unacceptable.]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 11:45:58 -0500
I firmly believe that the powers are trying to do this reset by devaluing assets, creating stimulus and and propping up the bank asset base. It will work, maybe, but where will inflation be? This is totally unacceptable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121901-financial-stock-valuations-the-mirror-image-of-tech-stocks-in-99?source=feed#comment-398539 398539
Congress will appropriately heavily regulate the banks. They have proven to be crooks. Instead of letting them fail, regs will be instituted to insure that capital remains at high levels and risks are manageable.

Economy is food production, transportation, building when actually needed, etc, etc. Banks merely facilitate by transferring money from one place to another. Any leverage is simply inflationary in the sense that it bolsters prices in the short term, just like helping out mortgage borrowers by the federal government.

We may eventually realize that leverage is the dumbest thing a mature society can allow. I don't know, but banks only benefit from as much leverage as they can generate. Tacit backstop by the federal government must be removed in order to reduce risk taking. Wells is the only major bank that I can see who never assumed they would get help from the government, and leant accordingly. And gee, they actually make money!]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 11:10:47 -0500
Congress will appropriately heavily regulate the banks. They have proven to be crooks. Instead of letting them fail, regs will be instituted to insure that capital remains at high levels and risks are manageable.

Economy is food production, transportation, building when actually needed, etc, etc. Banks merely facilitate by transferring money from one place to another. Any leverage is simply inflationary in the sense that it bolsters prices in the short term, just like helping out mortgage borrowers by the federal government.

We may eventually realize that leverage is the dumbest thing a mature society can allow. I don't know, but banks only benefit from as much leverage as they can generate. Tacit backstop by the federal government must be removed in order to reduce risk taking. Wells is the only major bank that I can see who never assumed they would get help from the government, and leant accordingly. And gee, they actually make money!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121688-santelli-s-rant-a-watershed-moment?source=feed#comment-398513 398513
This is a very bad, slippery slope. The end game for the US is unimaginable. At least the pres has drawn a line in the sand on the deficit, which should help him stop.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 10:58:02 -0500
This is a very bad, slippery slope. The end game for the US is unimaginable. At least the pres has drawn a line in the sand on the deficit, which should help him stop.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121412-american-negativity-is-upside-down?source=feed#comment-395484 395484
The opposition continues to ignore the needs of our people. We are blessed to have Obama and team at the helm, not for their perfection, but for their desire to represent the people of our great land.

They will regain the trust of the world and americans. It will take months or years, not days. I can only hope those wishing them to fail get with the program.]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 14:42:50 -0500
The opposition continues to ignore the needs of our people. We are blessed to have Obama and team at the helm, not for their perfection, but for their desire to represent the people of our great land.

They will regain the trust of the world and americans. It will take months or years, not days. I can only hope those wishing them to fail get with the program.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120862-don-t-kick-yourself-later-for-not-buying-gold-and-silver-now?source=feed#comment-394302 394302 Wed, 18 Feb 2009 19:54:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120964-the-curious-case-of-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-392717 392717
M1/M2 increase without a decrease in the dollar shows just how big M3 had gotten - either M3 collapses or M1/2 grows to fill it with real $ until velocity restarts. If previous administration hadn't stopped publishing M3, I firmly believe all this mess would have been avoided by prudent investors understanding their risks.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 18:26:19 -0500
M1/M2 increase without a decrease in the dollar shows just how big M3 had gotten - either M3 collapses or M1/2 grows to fill it with real $ until velocity restarts. If previous administration hadn't stopped publishing M3, I firmly believe all this mess would have been avoided by prudent investors understanding their risks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120499-nationalizing-the-u-s-banking-sector-there-s-no-choice?source=feed#comment-386895 386895 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:58:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/120410-jim-rogers-on-the-economy-bearish-on-stocks-and-government?source=feed#comment-386779 386779
If we put in supports to keep things up, we will emerge over several years as a socialist society. If we let values fall and don't create public debt to replace private debt, we reset and can keep our innovation associated with capitalism.

We sometimes forget why capitalism is important. We use the word "growth". We "grew" in the last five years - all illusion, money supply growth caused by credit creation and the elimination of M3 which stopped investors from seeing real inflation. In fact, capitalism allows for efficient utilization of resources by everyone, improving the human condition. Isn't improving the human condition the goal of socialism as well.]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 07:02:42 -0500
If we put in supports to keep things up, we will emerge over several years as a socialist society. If we let values fall and don't create public debt to replace private debt, we reset and can keep our innovation associated with capitalism.

We sometimes forget why capitalism is important. We use the word "growth". We "grew" in the last five years - all illusion, money supply growth caused by credit creation and the elimination of M3 which stopped investors from seeing real inflation. In fact, capitalism allows for efficient utilization of resources by everyone, improving the human condition. Isn't improving the human condition the goal of socialism as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119936-the-great-awakening-boomers-your-crisis-has-arrived-part-3-of-3?source=feed#comment-385375 385375
Let's put ideology aside - where could we move? How can we educate out kids so they become part of the future solution, not problem.

I too am ready to pull my family of four out of here if things degrade much more. Born in '57, I have had quite a few years to digest both the good (90's), the bad (00's) and the ugly(80's). This country runs around chasing it's tail so much it's ridiculous. And credit/money is at the root of all of it - hmmm - "money is the root of many evils". The Bible is a geat source of wisdom, maybe people should actually read it.]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 09:22:35 -0500
Let's put ideology aside - where could we move? How can we educate out kids so they become part of the future solution, not problem.

I too am ready to pull my family of four out of here if things degrade much more. Born in '57, I have had quite a few years to digest both the good (90's), the bad (00's) and the ugly(80's). This country runs around chasing it's tail so much it's ridiculous. And credit/money is at the root of all of it - hmmm - "money is the root of many evils". The Bible is a geat source of wisdom, maybe people should actually read it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120159-stocks-are-doomed-only-cash-or-precious-metals-may-survive?source=feed#comment-385298 385298
The stock market will underperform because all our capital is being sucked into the bond market for the next 5 years. These people are not anti-business.]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 08:49:49 -0500
The stock market will underperform because all our capital is being sucked into the bond market for the next 5 years. These people are not anti-business.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120137-geithner-s-superfund-is-the-real-deal?source=feed#comment-385231 385231
I think we are in a bond market for the next ten years, forget stocks. This is new in my adult lifetime. We created so much credit (we, ha!) that all available capital must be deployed against this mess. It's now clear to me that you can add to your list that bankers tried to get the public to absorb all of their mistakes - mistakes they had already made commissions on. Can anyone say $4B in bonuses Merrill Lynch for selling debt we are now asked to take - fungible money, remember?]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 08:18:14 -0500
I think we are in a bond market for the next ten years, forget stocks. This is new in my adult lifetime. We created so much credit (we, ha!) that all available capital must be deployed against this mess. It's now clear to me that you can add to your list that bankers tried to get the public to absorb all of their mistakes - mistakes they had already made commissions on. Can anyone say $4B in bonuses Merrill Lynch for selling debt we are now asked to take - fungible money, remember?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119732-way-too-much-washington-for-wall-street-today?source=feed#comment-383116 383116
My preference, let all those who made bad best go bust, then pick up the pieces. Paulson and Bernanke didn't allow that to happen, instead they spent my money as if it were theirs to spend. Geithner feels an obligation to his countrymen - what a thought!! I'll take integrity every time, it will eventually get to the right answer.]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:43:22 -0500
My preference, let all those who made bad best go bust, then pick up the pieces. Paulson and Bernanke didn't allow that to happen, instead they spent my money as if it were theirs to spend. Geithner feels an obligation to his countrymen - what a thought!! I'll take integrity every time, it will eventually get to the right answer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117880-largest-u-s-trucker-in-complete-freefall?source=feed#comment-376089 376089 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:51:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118402-good-news-continues-to-roll-in?source=feed#comment-375530 375530
It remains to be seen as to whether or not we are in for a log and slow decline followed by a long and slow creep back out, but long and slow beats steep and irreversible in our lifetime.]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 11:17:04 -0500
It remains to be seen as to whether or not we are in for a log and slow decline followed by a long and slow creep back out, but long and slow beats steep and irreversible in our lifetime.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116312-the-u-s-treasury-s-golden-shell-game?source=feed#comment-365665 365665 Sun, 25 Jan 2009 12:52:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116254-jeremy-grantham-slowly-invest-in-global-equities?source=feed#comment-365586 365586
We do not have a game changing place to invest, and the choices we do have are not big enough to offset the credit induced asset bubble currently in place. I think time, maybe 3-5 years, is the only thing that will get us back on track. This shouldn't be looked at as failure unless wee see hunger, homelessness and social strife - then we have failed as a society. This is our first chance to prove we have conquered those things.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 11:31:44 -0500
We do not have a game changing place to invest, and the choices we do have are not big enough to offset the credit induced asset bubble currently in place. I think time, maybe 3-5 years, is the only thing that will get us back on track. This shouldn't be looked at as failure unless wee see hunger, homelessness and social strife - then we have failed as a society. This is our first chance to prove we have conquered those things.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115525-the-scariest-chart-ever?source=feed#comment-365047 365047 Sat, 24 Jan 2009 13:48:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116138-trust-not-confidence-is-the-issue-for-geithner?source=feed#comment-363980 363980 Fri, 23 Jan 2009 09:15:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115355-bernanke-and-obama-s-advisors-are-wrong-deflation-didn-t-threaten-the-u-s-economy?source=feed#comment-360230 360230
Mr Obama has to take the advice of advisors, he can't know everything, especially on such intricate matters. So, we're screwed. Everyone thinks it's credit we need, but it's need we need. As in, I don't need another house, car, dog, so just let us pay off the debt we have.]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:56:12 -0500
Mr Obama has to take the advice of advisors, he can't know everything, especially on such intricate matters. So, we're screwed. Everyone thinks it's credit we need, but it's need we need. As in, I don't need another house, car, dog, so just let us pay off the debt we have.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115259-treasuries-true-risk?source=feed#comment-359675 359675
This entire problem is a legal Ponzi scheme. In our current state, we need regs that severely restrict banking leverage, but those regs can't be implemented until real money replaces the over leverage of the banks, coupled with write downs.

The more write downs we have, like the RBS $41B today, the closer we come to inflation. ]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 09:20:06 -0500
This entire problem is a legal Ponzi scheme. In our current state, we need regs that severely restrict banking leverage, but those regs can't be implemented until real money replaces the over leverage of the banks, coupled with write downs.

The more write downs we have, like the RBS $41B today, the closer we come to inflation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114400-predictions-for-the-coming-flation?source=feed#comment-353823 353823
Direct stimulus campaigns are inflationary.

Should have let the banks and asset prices crash, then the regular guy could afford them. Too bad.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:10:23 -0500
Direct stimulus campaigns are inflationary.

Should have let the banks and asset prices crash, then the regular guy could afford them. Too bad.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114143-the-fed-s-bubble-trouble?source=feed#comment-352448 352448
Increased gold prices are one way of increasing the money supply as cash is changed for gold. What we really need is for every billionaire to give 10% or so of their worth to needy people today, not as an institution. They could easy immediately put $10-20 billion back into circulation! No impact on our federal balance sheet.]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 12:32:32 -0500
Increased gold prices are one way of increasing the money supply as cash is changed for gold. What we really need is for every billionaire to give 10% or so of their worth to needy people today, not as an institution. They could easy immediately put $10-20 billion back into circulation! No impact on our federal balance sheet.]]>