Illusional Delusion's Comments

How low was volume today? Zero Hedge has charts: SPY volume at an '09 low, and NYSE volume below 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 23:36:10 -0400

is it price weighted? as the price increase i would think less people would trade it, or become less willing to buy it...still good work from TD

The president's chief of staff famously says never to waste a crisis. Roger Ehrenberg says that's exactly what happened as Wall Street's weakness - super-leveraged capital structure and reliance on overnight lending - was exposed. "Where we are left today, dear taxpayer, is a lot poorer. Unless you are a major shareholder and/or bonusable employee of Goldman Sachs."

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 20:03:20 -0400

it should be only the bonusable GS employees. any shareholder other than Buffett is only paying towards the bonuses.

S&P trading above 1,000 for the first time since November, +1.3% to 1,000.26.

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 10:49:29 -0400

Time to buy dollars if you think the economy can keep going like this.

Lawyers take pro bono cases, and doctors treat the uninsured in medical emergencies, giving up profit to do so. So Joe Nocera wonders: What is banking's moral obligation to the country that fished it out of the abyss?

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 23:33:46 -0400

I'd mostly agree, but I think it is more that bankers ignored their moral and contractual (legal) obligation to manage people's money properly than sheer abuse of OPM.

On Aug 01 05:35 PM D_Virginia wrote:

> Lawyers and doctors have knowledge and skills that can

Weekend reading recommended via Pragmatic Capitalist and Zero Hedge: Boeckh Investment Letter's "The Great Reflation Experiment" (.pdf), which contends that a long-term inflationary approach has the U.S. consigned to a roller-coaster ride of bubbly cycles: Saying the crisis was a "black swan" event "is grossly misleading, as it implies that the crash was so far beyond the realm of normal probabilities that it was unreasonable to expect anyone to have foreseen it."

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 14:06:48 -0400

IMO, asset bubbles are natural. Whatever form of money, there will be a tendency to hoard assets since it replaces the value of production and easier to hoard than actual production. It is harder to predict the peak, but not the formation.

On Aug 01 12:13 PM bricki wrote:

> While I agree with the premise that an inflationary bias leads to

Banks in Oklahoma, Florida, Ohio and New Jersey fail, at an estimated total cost to the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund of $215.7M, making for a total of 68 failures in 2009.

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:02:20 -0400

69 for 7 months, roughly 120 per year, but noting that it picked up most of its pace now, it might be 150+ for 2009 by 2010. Either way, 69 by today is still a very bad reflection of the state of affairs.

Charting Y/Y GDP numbers minus the stimulus: Just a question of how steep a cliff you want to go down.

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 20:47:02 -0400

What seems funny to me is that all the problems is bad debt and the ones with them are the "strong" banks...

On Jul 31 08:02 PM Vox Rationalis wrote:

> This is fairly moronic. Might as well take out the financials when
> looking at the S&P 500. Last year wasn't so bad after all!

Bernanke to Congress: About 25 firms are systemically significant. Oh, by the way, "virtually all" are organized as bank holding companies, which means the Fed already happens to be their supervisor and lender of last resort.

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:07:45 -0400

If they are willing to apply that restriction, which will hurt profits in some ways...

On Jul 24 03:01 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> As all of us on SA I've read so much about this my head is about

More from Goldman Sachs (GS): The firm says that with the $318M in dividends it paid on its $10B TARP investment (and the $1.1B it paid to redeem warrants), U.S. taxpayers have gotten a return of 23%.

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:27:29 -0400

Well, if I remember correctly, the amount they got from the CDS was like 10b, so the return is 10+% only. For completely backstopping them, anything <30% is cheap.

It's not just you: Yes, every firm seems like it's beating expectations.

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 22:17:26 -0400

or have access to the printer...

Karl Denninger rips The Washington Post's defense of Goldman Sachs (GS): "I know nobody that objects to making a profit. I know a lot of people who object to theft."

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:30:30 -0400

I beg to differ. They should instead have a progressive tax bucket for bonuses separately. Regular people do get bonuses for real work too...

On Jul 20 03:24 PM frosty wrote:

> Congress should pass a law taxing bank bonuses 100% for the

Karl Denninger rips The Washington Post's defense of Goldman Sachs (GS): "I know nobody that objects to making a profit. I know a lot of people who object to theft."

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:03:14 -0400

Go Karl!

A report from the TARP special inspector general - leaked to media outlets but not yet released to public - says U.S. bailouts and backstop plans total $23.7T. The number is part of SIG Neil Barofsky's planned remarks before a House committee on Tuesday. Of the $700B slated for TARP, $441B has been distributed.

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:13:26 -0400

If you remove the people taking the money, it probably will figure around 100k per person outside the bailed out candidates

On Jul 20 02:09 PM DonH wrote:

> By my figuring, that's roughly 75,000 for every man, woman, and

BREAKING: CIT Group (CIT) cuts deal with key bondholders for $3B in financing, will avoid bankruptcy and restructure outside court. (WSJ)

Sun, 19 Jul 2009 19:05:40 -0400

They are the only one with direct access to the printers

On Jul 19 06:19 PM Market Sniper wrote:

> No idea. ROFL

Market internals show higher volume on the buying spurts, hinting that the bulls might be back.

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 15:14:09 -0400

Year based or Month based? I see only a down trend based on months and quite flat year based from last year, not to mention that last year people is probably a panic year...

CIT Group (CIT) up 115%, reportedly talking with J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs about short-term financing of $2B-3B as it tries to stave off bankruptcy.

Fri, 17 Jul 2009 14:01:20 -0400

It fell to 1c at one point. Not sure if that's an error, but its not corrected on Google Finance, so I assume its correct...Data error?

"In what some on Wall Street are calling the biggest blockbuster deal in the history of the financial sector, Goldman Sachs confirmed today that it was in talks to acquire the U.S. Department of the Treasury." (Borowitz Report)

Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:22:39 -0400

Just to make it legit...

On Jul 16 12:21 PM herbert hoover wrote:

> Why buy something you already own?

Bearish sentiment rises to almost 55%, its highest since March 5. Bulls, meanwhile, drop to 27.9% from 37.8%. Caveats: the data can at times be almost as fickle as the investors it tracks, and some see extremes as a contrarian signal.

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:22:36 -0400

I would agree only when there is a breakout of sheer panic. Valuations does not reflect sheer panic yet.

On Jul 09 03:10 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> very bullish signal. When investors are this bearish, people should

Economist Robert Frank discovers a Ph.D-powered economic perpetual motion machine. Mark Steyn explains: "The stimulus will work because enough economists are saying it will work that their prestigious postnominal credentials will impress enough of the masses into thinking it will work, which in turn will make it work." (via)

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:24:13 -0400

Are the economics departments short staffed?

From ProPublica: An honest look at how much the AIG (AIG) bailout is really costing U.S. taxpayers.

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 00:02:27 -0400

Indeed. Only 130B spread over 300M population paid to like...100 people?

On Jul 07 09:09 PM herbert hoover wrote:

> AIG only cost the taxpayers $130B. I wonder how much of that

The banking industry is mulling a "Harry and Louise"-style ad assault to sink Obama's proposed consumer financial products regulator. Joe Weisenthal anticipates an epic failure.

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:56:31 -0400

I would have given a thumbs up if I actually think its written by an actual person. Unfortunately, too many repetitions...BOT!

On Jul 07 08:30 PM gberg wrote:

> Stimulus is a joke of a concept; it doesn't end up with real

The silver lining behind rising jobless numbers: "If politicians and establishment economists would simply leave the economy alone, today's painful stories of failure and unemployment would morph into tomorrow's stories of economic rebirth."

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:52:12 -0400

Society brought many changes in leadership, from politics, business and economics in times of need, I'd call it evolution actually, pretty Darwinian, don't you agree? The problem we see right now is that the ones in power making the mistakes are unwilling to own up to it and correct it. If the leader says that some pain is needed to get us through without taking a dose of the often bitter medicine himself, I'd say that this politician or academic is not better than others that they denounce. Probably worse.

On Jul 07 11:34 PM user344210 wrote:

> Yeah, gee, because no one who was ever born anything less

The world's wealthiest people are also the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, which is why a new study suggests basing targeted emission cuts on the number of rich people in a given country.

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 08:49:11 -0400

Its not going to be useful to tax if they can forget to pay their taxes legally...

The extreme volatility that has gripped oil markets for the last year-and-a-half shows no signs of slowing down. Analysts say the instability could jeopardize a global recovery.

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:53:31 -0400

Which in turn means that the monetary policies are the ones that could be the perpetrator...

Nothing Is Ever Truly 'Off the Books' in the Financial World

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:53:59 -0400

As another human being, I think I know as much of what tomorrow will be as the guy on Wall Street...

There are things at the fat tail of the possibility curves, and simply, most people don't look forward to them...

On Jun 29 11:27 AM Leftfield wrote:

> For years I've assumed Wall St. knew their business even as I

How to Sell TARP Warrants

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:50:01 -0400

My thoughts exactly. If we are to maintain investor confidence by backing them up with taxpayer money, then it would be ridiculous not to act like normal investors when it comes to unwinding the rescue funds.

On Jun 29 08:26 PM data wrote:

> But what is the hurry with selling them? Why not keep them for

Clusterstock points to its chart of the day and suggests: Don't call a housing bottom until skyrocketing delinquencies start heading back to norms.

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:47:42 -0400

Its the "new normal" mantra...recovery in dollar terms is all these people look for, not employment, not growth...Frankly, I have come to think any sort of growth seems to be good, even growth in unemployment and delinquencies...Is there a more sane planet I can live on?

John Tamny eviscerates Peter Mandelson's more regulation = stabler markets mantra.

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:45:39 -0400

Proper regulation = Stabler Markets...Proper, not More.

As the SEC plans to shed the first glimmer of light on "dark pools" (private, opaque trading markets) likely by having them report monthly volumes, a debate continues over whether retail investors might still get left in the dark.

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:43:50 -0400

IMO, there is no difference between cartels and government bodies, just that one acts on the side of the law and one tries to act outside of someone else's laws.

Ryan Lizza profiles FDIC head Sheila Bair - the unlikely hero to economic liberals who see her as the counterweight to the more Wall Street-centric Geithner - for The New Yorker. Noam Scheiber says the profile shows Bair's FDIC will be the odd regulator out. And John Carney says if not for Bair, Citigroup (C) would have gotten away with recapitalizing CDOs with tax dollars.

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 21:41:45 -0400

If Bair runs for President, I'll vote for her!