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Illusional Delusion

Illusional Delusion
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  • Calculated Risk takes a position quite different from Mike Shedlock, who calls Ben Bernanke "a disingenuous liar with a memory problem." Quoting James Hamilton: "As someone who's known him for 25 years, I would place him above 99.9% of those recently in power in Washington on the integrity dimension, not to mention IQ."  [View news story]
    Actions speak louder than words, and frankly, I, like many commenters on Hamilton's post, could not find a justifying action for Hamilton's justification of Bernanke's actions so far in "saving the economy". My view is that Bernanke's position is that he is no different from a politician, so unless his actions truly proved otherwise, which may take years to realise with so many other "Save the Wall Street" programs going on, it is as it is, self serving.
    Jun 29, 2009. 09:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre FOMC data point: Fed funds futures now price a 74% chance of a rate hike to 0.5% by December.  [View news story]
    I was just wondering, did they get that number (74% for 0.5) from some polls or betting pools?

    On Jun 24 12:07 PM Harry Tuttle wrote:

    > Contrary to popular belief, future contracts DO NOT necessarily
    Jun 24, 2009. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How much would you pay for a lunch with Warren Buffett? On the first day of a five-day charity auction, bids have already reached $25,400, but there's still plenty of upside if this year's winning bid will look anything like 2008's astounding $2.1M.  [View news story]
    Yea. Its naive to think that the people paying for this plans to do charity when they can do it themselves already anyway. First, the bid is already worth some poor dude's one year salary, next, eating with Buffett isn't really a charity, right?

    On Jun 22 01:16 PM Neil459 wrote:

    > No, its not, if you have 2.1M and want to donate it to charity then
    Jun 22, 2009. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldilocks evicts the bears: Wall Street honchos, with support from Congress, are trying to convince us the financial system was perfectly sound all along. Brad DeLong warns: We can't afford their delusion.  [View news story]
    Assuming that they do not blow their own cover by then...

    On Jun 17 12:39 PM D_Virginia wrote:

    > You erroneously presume that the financial institutions haven't yet
    Jun 17, 2009. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With one hour to go, major indexes are still negative in a lackluster session. Normally, one might expect another wave of selling, or perhaps some bargain hunting, but today it seems equally plausible we'll just limp into the close. Dow -0.9% at 8537. S&P -0.9% to 915. Nasdaq -0.7% to 1804.  [View news story]
    Yes, except with the lack of transparency, its not hard to conclude about conspiracy. Not that it is not business as usual. These banks are out to suck the life out of taxpayers anyway (with or without manipulation).

    On Jun 16 03:58 PM Niner wrote:

    > Program trades..... there are two windows that large
    Jun 16, 2009. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sellers took charge at midday, and forced markets back to their lows in the final minutes. Dow finishes -1.26% (-108.75) at 8,503.38. S&P -1.27% (-11.73) to 911.99. Nasdaq -1.11% (-20.20) to 1,796.18. In moving-average land, the 200-day is on the verge of downward criss-crossing the 50-day - a potentially bearish sign.  [View news story]
    I was playing around with a few possible numbers in the "future" S&P values. There are some possible gold crosses, but there is also a chance for a death cross too.
    Jun 16, 2009. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The problem with textbook application of mark-to-market accounting isn't only the difficulty of measuring value, Paul Volcker says. While entirely appropriate for trading desks and investment banks, strict MTM accounting could introduce "a degree of volatility in reporting incompatible with the basic and essential business model of banks, which inherently intermediate maturity and credit risks."  [View news story]
    Well, if the banks make "huge profits" from the same rules, shouldn't they be subject to "losses" under the same rules too? They should have understood the risk to begin with and M2M should have nothing to do with their insolvency unless they are mismanaged to begin with.
    Jun 16, 2009. 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Too high, too soon," Nouriel Roubini says of the recent surge in oil prices, possibly contributing to this afternoon's selloff. Roubini's equally bearish on gold, warning it looks "toppy" and noting deflationary pressures will dominate for the next two years.  [View news story]
    Also, if someone knows there is more fiat floating around, wouldn't he raise the price naturally anyway? Even if its not double, there is still going to be significant increase?

    On Jun 16 10:53 PM Market Sniper wrote:

    > Simple, mac. Inflation is caused by more fiat chasing the same
    Jun 16, 2009. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • They need to remove the punishment for cheating and copying first...

    On Jun 16 10:42 PM Mr. Ed, Jr. wrote:

    > To prepare young minds for the future, the "Stock Market"
    Jun 16, 2009. 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I had the unfortunate experience of clicking the video on "expert advice" to realise something probably even a first grader knows by addition...ok, maybe they still need some multiplication...i'm not going to visit any *nbc ever again...

    On Jun 16 10:22 PM Archman Investor wrote:

    > I read the article.
    Jun 16, 2009. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Overdue Overhaul of the Securitization Industry [View article]
    Absolutely agree. I feel FDIC should wield more power than the Fed in this scenario to backstop deposit, although I want to point out, no matter we let the banks fail or not, WE would backstop the banks more or less, even if the only piece we see is the deposits, hence we should have let them fail back then to avoid having that bottomless pit. Now, any regulation is just window dressing imo.

    On Jun 16 06:01 PM TraderMark wrote:

    > You make good points on Lehman and Bear. But if everyone
    Jun 16, 2009. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Too high, too soon," Nouriel Roubini says of the recent surge in oil prices, possibly contributing to this afternoon's selloff. Roubini's equally bearish on gold, warning it looks "toppy" and noting deflationary pressures will dominate for the next two years.  [View news story]
    The only problem I have with gold is its price denomination in fiat currency. Once you exit the trade, you are back to fiat money. Of course, that is assuming that fiat doesn't collapse and you hold actual bullion...

    On Jun 16 09:16 PM The Geoffster wrote:

    > Since the creation of the FED in 1913, the dollar has lost 95% of
    Jun 16, 2009. 09:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A novel idea: high-dividend stocks as inflation protection for your portfolio.  [View news story]
    Higher inflation means lower profits in general and lesser chance of good dividend returns. Does the author think that there are people who will work for free in an inflationary environment?
    Jun 16, 2009. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battered by the worst recession in decades, vast numbers of Americans see lean times ahead - and plan to recalibrate their lives accordingly. A remarkable 66% say they’re less willing to take on credit card debt, and 52% say they're 'much' less willing to do so.  [View news story]
    The problem is not that they are tricked, but that there is a lack of balanced and objective views available about various investments. What is the current loudest news on managing your finances? Some channel that I prefer to snooze over...

    On Jun 15 04:30 PM User 357705 wrote:

    > Working people should never been tricked into buying stocks or
    Jun 15, 2009. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Un-American Government Intervention [View article]
    Companies bailed out by the government will be as credit worthy as the government, and that worthiness is going to zero, if not for the fact of the dollar being the globally used reserve. Even that could change at any moment of madness now.
    Jun 14, 2009. 03:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment