Illusional Delusion

Welcome to Parity

I think the fact that the yields on treasuries are that low is a sign that deflation is in progress. The big institutions rather park their money at a loss than take the risk for a bigger profit/loss.

The only thing is how long, which actually depends on what the world leadership does as a whole. One that's solved, inflation will hit. And if the same people that is trying to lead us out of deflation don't react fast enough, inflation will be very ugly. My gut tells me that deflation will be over about 2010, like what gloom said.

Bubbly Treasuries Will Disappoint

I have read a few articles and would agree on both that it is definitely overbought and that it is still early to call it the tip of the bubble. Like many said above, it will end sooner or later.

Assuming it is the last safe haven in US, I assume that it will still be the least risky among most other vehicles for some time to come. I think averaging in is not a bad idea though I think anyone who wants to start getting into PST and TBT will have to wait for quite some time before this fruit matures. IMO, any government policy change will tilt the jug sideways and the unwinding may start anytime. I think the chances of that happening is pretty significant though, so both are definitely in my KIV list.