Talin's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/272885/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/114936-the-erroneous-credence-of-the-efficient-market?source=feed#comment-356835 356835 Anyway, I have always thought the 100 dollars bill history a funny way of conveying the idiosincracy of (some) economics professors beleiving EMT and their detractors... but for other reasons: the theory states that you will not find 100 dollars on the street. As far as economics theory goes it is pretty close to reality: I have never found a 100 dollar bill on the street. ¿How many -dear fellow bloggers- have you found?]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 14:27:10 -0500 Anyway, I have always thought the 100 dollars bill history a funny way of conveying the idiosincracy of (some) economics professors beleiving EMT and their detractors... but for other reasons: the theory states that you will not find 100 dollars on the street. As far as economics theory goes it is pretty close to reality: I have never found a 100 dollar bill on the street. ¿How many -dear fellow bloggers- have you found?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110338-so-just-when-does-spain-s-twin-deficit-problem-become-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-326715 326715 With a 10% CA deficit average in the next years, and the inability of the private sector to absorb more debt it is pretty clear that budget deficits are going to escalate to plug the gap. The spanish government it is the only actor capable ot taking more debt. But how long and in what conditions? Even the very moderate debt we have may raise doubts under the present financial turmoil.
In the meantime we will observe a lot of selling of assets to foreigners. The contemplated Repsol deal and others we have just witnessed are just signals of the inability of the spanish private sector to mantain control of the assets by lack of finance. We will see many more... kind of strengtening the equity side of the balance sheets with foreign shareholders. Foreign assets will have to be sold also. All this is clear.

As for the future we need strong measures that this governement seems incapable of taking, more if you know the intellectual leanings of the policy makers on stabilization matters. The radical change in relative prices that the spanish economy needs it is not even contemplated.

Thanks for your analysis. Not in a single blog in Spain we find something remotely similar. But you must know this already.


]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:51:18 -0500 With a 10% CA deficit average in the next years, and the inability of the private sector to absorb more debt it is pretty clear that budget deficits are going to escalate to plug the gap. The spanish government it is the only actor capable ot taking more debt. But how long and in what conditions? Even the very moderate debt we have may raise doubts under the present financial turmoil.
In the meantime we will observe a lot of selling of assets to foreigners. The contemplated Repsol deal and others we have just witnessed are just signals of the inability of the spanish private sector to mantain control of the assets by lack of finance. We will see many more... kind of strengtening the equity side of the balance sheets with foreign shareholders. Foreign assets will have to be sold also. All this is clear.

As for the future we need strong measures that this governement seems incapable of taking, more if you know the intellectual leanings of the policy makers on stabilization matters. The radical change in relative prices that the spanish economy needs it is not even contemplated.

Thanks for your analysis. Not in a single blog in Spain we find something remotely similar. But you must know this already.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100212-this-recession-will-be-anything-but-deep?source=feed#comment-284293 284293 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 06:29:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100212-this-recession-will-be-anything-but-deep?source=feed#comment-284174 284174

]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 21:42:48 -0400

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99711-welcome-to-the-google-economy?source=feed#comment-281629 281629
To sell profitably intellectual property not attached to specific goods is not a very good business proposition. You do not get much money out of it, perhaps in a few of the successful projects, but taking the losses in the unsuccessful ones. Biotechnological companies that do not develop final products are discovering that.

At the national level is, obviously, worse. You cannot survive selling 20 billions of car "technology" and importing 200 billions of cars. And nobody pays for Google (final consumption); as at now the income of Google in intermediate consumption (companies’ money). This difference is vital, but nobody see it.

We have to network, invest in "technology" and make good use of it, which means creating something that (mainly) final consumers will really pay, which means they really value. And to keep the value added in America.

]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:01:54 -0400
To sell profitably intellectual property not attached to specific goods is not a very good business proposition. You do not get much money out of it, perhaps in a few of the successful projects, but taking the losses in the unsuccessful ones. Biotechnological companies that do not develop final products are discovering that.

At the national level is, obviously, worse. You cannot survive selling 20 billions of car "technology" and importing 200 billions of cars. And nobody pays for Google (final consumption); as at now the income of Google in intermediate consumption (companies’ money). This difference is vital, but nobody see it.

We have to network, invest in "technology" and make good use of it, which means creating something that (mainly) final consumers will really pay, which means they really value. And to keep the value added in America.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99193-the-euro-shows-its-real-colors?source=feed#comment-278307 278307 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 20:09:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98895-big-troubles-for-the-euro?source=feed#comment-275969 275969 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:47:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98895-big-troubles-for-the-euro?source=feed#comment-275903 275903
In Europe they tax heavily and do not have the capitalistic mentality applied to their governments. To imagine Europeans calculating if in the end, after spending 700 billion of dollars, the government may end up making money, or investing in preferred shares in banks with warrants attached, so in case there is latter an uspwing in share values the "taxpayer" benefits, is unthinkable. That is why they will spend heavily and debtors will have a free ride.

As at now Governments in Belgium, Germany, France, UK, Iceland, Holland have already paid. This crisis is going to cost a lot of taxpayer money. If the US governement really spend real money salvaging the mortgage backed bonds, finishing this chicken game of who foots the bill, the crisis will end soon. The rest of the world are already paying more, and in the end, they know, they will have the largest loses. That is why the euro looks week.

]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:53:51 -0400
In Europe they tax heavily and do not have the capitalistic mentality applied to their governments. To imagine Europeans calculating if in the end, after spending 700 billion of dollars, the government may end up making money, or investing in preferred shares in banks with warrants attached, so in case there is latter an uspwing in share values the "taxpayer" benefits, is unthinkable. That is why they will spend heavily and debtors will have a free ride.

As at now Governments in Belgium, Germany, France, UK, Iceland, Holland have already paid. This crisis is going to cost a lot of taxpayer money. If the US governement really spend real money salvaging the mortgage backed bonds, finishing this chicken game of who foots the bill, the crisis will end soon. The rest of the world are already paying more, and in the end, they know, they will have the largest loses. That is why the euro looks week.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98511-america-s-real-wealth?source=feed#comment-273933 273933
As for the situation of the respective economies I would say that now Europe has a enormous problem because most of the toxic debt lies as assets (worthless) of the european banking system (and Asia). That is the equivalent of the financing of the current account deficits of the US in the past decade, a great chunk of US foreign debt.

Now that debt is worthless. Nobody says it clearly in Europe, but most people consider this as the default of US foreign debt, the equivalent of similar defaults of foreign countries in the past years, if only this time much bigger. They feel cheated as they trusted the American financial system, only to find now that the niceky packaged (with plenty of beautiful As) mortgage backed bonds that US were exporting were just thrash. I am not blaming anybody, this is just past history, I am just stating what I consider aroung here the general feeling. The main concern about all now is to ascertain the willingness of the US to pay in the end anything (if just a little) to foreign creditors. In my opinion creditors do not have the slightes chance. They will suffer losses of 3 Trillion dollars, and the financial meltdown outside America is going to be horrendous. In US things will be better; with no more debt to worry about it is very logical that the US dollar is getting stronger.




]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 11:04:30 -0400
As for the situation of the respective economies I would say that now Europe has a enormous problem because most of the toxic debt lies as assets (worthless) of the european banking system (and Asia). That is the equivalent of the financing of the current account deficits of the US in the past decade, a great chunk of US foreign debt.

Now that debt is worthless. Nobody says it clearly in Europe, but most people consider this as the default of US foreign debt, the equivalent of similar defaults of foreign countries in the past years, if only this time much bigger. They feel cheated as they trusted the American financial system, only to find now that the niceky packaged (with plenty of beautiful As) mortgage backed bonds that US were exporting were just thrash. I am not blaming anybody, this is just past history, I am just stating what I consider aroung here the general feeling. The main concern about all now is to ascertain the willingness of the US to pay in the end anything (if just a little) to foreign creditors. In my opinion creditors do not have the slightes chance. They will suffer losses of 3 Trillion dollars, and the financial meltdown outside America is going to be horrendous. In US things will be better; with no more debt to worry about it is very logical that the US dollar is getting stronger.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97922-speculating-on-the-future?source=feed#comment-269823 269823 Curbs-in gives a good point. What is happening now is basically the repudiation of a big chunk of America foreign debt. Congress decision on the TARP bill is the nearest statement institutionally made endorsing the repudiation. With al bonds worthless America will write off 3 trillion of foreign debt, most of the current account deficits of this decade. Now we know how the sustainability of the current account deficit and the external debt gets "solved". All of us were wondering in the past years how all this was going to turn up. How the "reserve money" country handles all this. Now we know the "trick" works. Not that all of this was cleverly masterminded -nobody is so clever to devise such a perfect scheme- but the end result is what eventually matters. America has now joined the nations that have defaulted on the external debt and it will join in the text books the likes of Mexico, Russia, Thailand, Argentina... only that the amounts are one order of magnitude higher that the combined repudiated debts of the former countries.

What will happen in the future I do not have a clue. If the current external default gets clouded in the total mess that is has created in the international market, camouflaged as a credit crisis o liquidity crisis (or greed crisis or whatever) perhaps foreign creditors will blame themselves and forget soon. Dollar of course will be higher (no more debts), America will continue importing, current account deficits accumulating again...exporting countries will be pretending they are selling and the US pretending they are paying. Till next round. In fact this is the third time since 1985 that the "trick" has worked; only that now is too obvious.








]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:15:57 -0400 Curbs-in gives a good point. What is happening now is basically the repudiation of a big chunk of America foreign debt. Congress decision on the TARP bill is the nearest statement institutionally made endorsing the repudiation. With al bonds worthless America will write off 3 trillion of foreign debt, most of the current account deficits of this decade. Now we know how the sustainability of the current account deficit and the external debt gets "solved". All of us were wondering in the past years how all this was going to turn up. How the "reserve money" country handles all this. Now we know the "trick" works. Not that all of this was cleverly masterminded -nobody is so clever to devise such a perfect scheme- but the end result is what eventually matters. America has now joined the nations that have defaulted on the external debt and it will join in the text books the likes of Mexico, Russia, Thailand, Argentina... only that the amounts are one order of magnitude higher that the combined repudiated debts of the former countries.

What will happen in the future I do not have a clue. If the current external default gets clouded in the total mess that is has created in the international market, camouflaged as a credit crisis o liquidity crisis (or greed crisis or whatever) perhaps foreign creditors will blame themselves and forget soon. Dollar of course will be higher (no more debts), America will continue importing, current account deficits accumulating again...exporting countries will be pretending they are selling and the US pretending they are paying. Till next round. In fact this is the third time since 1985 that the "trick" has worked; only that now is too obvious.








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