rogersails

Monetizing the Debt: Blogosphere Responds

Kudos to Mr. Jansen and Martenson for a back and forth that elevates objectivity and balance, and doesn't degenerate into a "catfight". Please take note, bloggers.

At the Atlanta Fed's Macroblog, David Altig says either we're going to continue making history (the bad way), or recovery forecasts are way too downbeat. He has a chart for historical comparison. (via)

Did we come "out' of any of the previous recessions so government stimulated and buried in debt ?

David Rosenberg's takeaway from the Meredith rally: "The fact that the equity market could rally this much based on one analyst's commentary is testament to the view of how badly investors want to believe that the recession and credit crunch are behind us and that unbridled prosperity lies ahead."

GS made a ton of money on trading, and took losses in real estate.
SOMEONE was on the losing side of those profitable trades. I wouldn't want to be the companies reporting those losing trades AND losses in real estate.

What Happened to the PPIP?

This downsized program begs another question - given the small fraction of the toxic assets addressed by the $40B program, how will the assets be chosen ? Bottom fishing by the buyers ? Window dressing by the sellers ? A rigged (think "Stress Tests") production by theTreasury ? Let the "Price Discovery" game begin !

What Happened to the PPIP?

On the bright side, this smaller initiative makes me breathe easier ($960 Billion easier) about the plan, while providing some mechanism (though biased by subsidy) for price discovery. We absolutely need to put a stake in the ground so we can do the hard work we can't avoid forever.

The Fed's in wait-and-see mode, says Chicago branch president Charles Evans, adding he expects continued downward price pressure: "We could see some declines in core inflation."

"the economy is probably closer to a turning point than it was three months ago."
Let me guess... 3 months closer ?????

A trio of economists says the much-touted housing-wealth effect - the impact that home value has on consumer spending - is widely misunderstood. It's not about feeling less wealthy, or even the downfall of home-as-ATM, but rather that home-price changes are a proxy for people's income expectations.

These guys have obviously spent their adult lives in University provided housing.

Wal-Mart and Offering Employees 'Strategic' Healthcare

Here's another angle. Wal-Mart want's to expand its retail model health care services, and has run into all kinds of obstacles from the obvious entrenched interests. So this announcement could be phase 1 of a broader plan. Phase 2 would be an administration supported rollout of retail health care services, which would be justified by the need to keep the costs of such a plan manageable. Wall-Mart gets health care for their workers, the administration gets game changing low cost health care in every town with a traffic light. Lights out for the big medical interests.

Somethin' to think about.

Dennis Kneale Takes on Zero Hedge...And Fails

Why is it that in every company I've worked for, guys like Kneale get ahead ? Somethin' in our culture. Not good.

'Preventing Systemic Collapse': Bernanke's Ace-in-the-Hole

The current administration's handling of the economic crises is running parallel to the prior administration's handling of 911. A lot of shoot from the hip actions surrounded in secrecy, brushing aside the law for the "greater good" . We will never really know what our world would look like like without these responses, but there will be many years of analysis, and, in the event of a change of administration, full blown witch hunts and a few ceremonial hangings.

Inflation's Green Shoots

Presumably, the "Key Raw Materials" are petrochemicals, which are studiously backed out of inflation metrics. So....no problem. The pain you feel isn't real.

Could an Eliot Spitzer comeback really happen? (Vanity Fair)

What's worse - A state attorney general with sexual indiscretions, or a Treasury secretary who's a tax cheat ? Wake up puritans.

Could an Eliot Spitzer comeback really happen? (Vanity Fair)

Spitzer single handedly did more to keep Wall Street honest than the entire Bush Administration did in 8 Years, and that was BEFORE wall street bashing became a national pass time.
Cut off his Viagra prescription and put him in charge of the SEC.

A massive and methodical study of financial media's success in anticipating - and warning us about - the impending disaster. The bottom line? "The business press did everything but take on the institutions that brought down the financial system."

I'm not surprised that the media did a better job calling the excesses early in the bubble than later (when it should have been even more obvious). After several years of calling the bubble a bubble (and being very unpopular at parties), and being "proven" wrong year after, it's really hard to keep the faith in one's better judgment. It's painful being a "perma-whiner".
Oh - and post crash, being able to say "I told you so" doesn't win you many friends either. But I did sell my grossly overpriced Northern California house in Jan 06. Heh Heh.

Debt Tsunami Not a Serious Threat

"As a result, old mortgage debt investors receive cash that they recycle into newly created mortgage debt" . Really ? This is a big assumption.